DVOA Analysis
Football Outsiders' revolutionary metrics that break down every single play of the NFL season

Week 11 DVOA Ratings

by Aaron Schatz

Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.

We have a new No. 1 team in DVOA this week, and most readers are probably not surprised to learn who it is. The Seattle Seahawks love our DVOA ratings, and DVOA loves them right back. The Seahawks won big over Philadelphia in the second annual DVOA Bowl matching the top two teams in our ratings, and that moves them into the top spot. Seattle has finished the season at No. 1 for four straight years, and we'll have to see over the next six weeks if the Seahawks can make it five. With Russell Wilson now healthy, the Seahawks are also becoming the exception in this year of imbalanced teams. Seattle moved up to No. 9 in offensive DVOA and are now the only team to rank in the top 10 for both offense and defense (where they rank No. 5).

Seattle's lead is a little bigger in weighted DVOA, which drops the strength of games played more than eight weeks ago. However, we should note that New England is actually the No. 1 team in the ratings we are using for our playoff odds simulation, because we have adjusted their offensive rating based solely on the games since Tom Brady returned from his suspension. The Patriots also moved up to No. 3 with a nice solid win against San Francisco, combined with some good games for past opponents (Miami, Buffalo, Seattle) boosting their opponent adjustments.

Having a 5-5 Philadelphia team at No. 2 probably doesn't looks just as strange as having a 5-4 Philadelphia team at No. 1, but the Eagles are still up there near the top. They continue to lead the league in both defense and special teams. Their defensive rating is particularly interesting because after giving up a couple of huge plays to Seattle, the Eagles are now giving up 5.6 yards per play overall -- exactly the same as the NFL average. How on earth are they the No. 1 defense?

  • Opponent Adjustments: The Eagles have played a tougher schedule of opposing offenses than any defense in the league, with half their games coming against offenses currently in the top 10.
  • Turnovers: Looking at inteceptions plus fumbles (no matter who recovers), the Eagles are tied for fifth in the NFL with 21 turnovers. The other teams with at least 20 turnovers have each faced more plays.
  • Big Plays: The Eagles have been a very high risk/high reward defense this year. They have forced a loss of 3 yards or more on 6.9 percent of plays, the highest rate in the NFL. However, they've also given up 30 yards or more on 3.6 percent of plays, second in the NFL behind Green Bay. This brings up an interesting question about how DVOA handles very long plays. As you may know, DVOA starts to limit the value of additional yardage after the first 30 yards or so. Once you get to a certain point, the frequency of very long plays is often more about where a team was on the field when they ran the play, rather than a team's superior ability to constantly gain 40-yard chunks (or inferior ability to prevent such gains). Usually, there isn't much predictive value to these super-long gains because the sample size is so small. However, there always exceptions to a rule like that. It's a reasonable hypothesis that this blunting of super-long gains is why DVOA underrates the 1998 Vikings offense, which gained at least 30 yards on 4.0 percent of plays. Could we be seeing a similar situation in reverse with this year's Eagles? It's possible, certainly. A bigger issue is that DVOA is looking at the whole season while fans have a hard time remembering September at this point. The Eagles allowed only six gains of 30 or more yards in their first four games. They allowed five of them against Seattle alone.

Anyway, I've written so much about the Eagles in DVOA commentary this year that they're building a Wawa in the back of my apartment. The Eagles are the mirror image of their archrivals in Dallas, who rank No. 1 in offensive DVOA but 25th on defense. Most power rankings around the Web will have the Cowboys at No. 1 because they have the best record at 9-1. Here, they've fallen a spot to No. 4 this week. That 27-17 win over Baltimore is actually a little less impressive than it appears on the surface. The Ravens were actually more efficient, gaining 7.1 yards per play compared to 6.2 yards per play for Dallas. But the real difference in this game was the penalties. Dallas committed 5 for 45 yards. Baltimore committed 12 for 136 yards. Yikes. Some of these penalties could be the product of good play by Dallas -- offensive holding calls, a 33-yard pass interference on Tavon Young -- but a lot of them don't say anything about the Cowboys' ability to draw penalties in future games. Baltimore gave the Cowboys 60 yards with unnecessary roughness, roughing the passer, and a face mask penalty.

There was a lot of movement in DVOA after Week 10, but there's really very little after Week 11. Even Seattle's big move to No. 1 just consists of going up one spot. Only one team in the league moved by more than two places between Week 10 and Week 11: San Diego, which moves up from No. 20 to No. 16. The Chargers essentially stood in place during a bye week while Baltimore, Cincinnati, Arizona, and Green Bay all fell below them.

* * * * *

Last week, we reached full strength on the opponent adjustments, so I thought this would be a good time to go through the various fantasy positions to look at which players have seen their standard stats most affected by schedule so far this season.

Quarterbacks

Ryan Tannehill and Joe Flacco have both been below replacement level, but their performances are even worse when we consider the schedule. Each one has DVOA at least 5.0% below VOA. (Apologies to our film expert Cian Fahey, but the numbers just don't back up the idea that Tannehill has improved over the course of the whole season.) However, the real gifts of the schedule went to Brian Hoyer. Hoyer surprised everyone with four straight 300-yard games for Chicago, but he also got the weak middle of the schedule. Hoyer's unadjusted passing VOA of 25.3% drops to 14.8% DVOA with opponent adjustments.

The numbers aren't as strong for quarterbacks who have played harder than average schedules. Surprisingly, the hardest schedules for quarterbacks are in the NFC South -- because of a schedule that features the AFC and NFC West. The five quarterbacks with the biggest increase from VOA to DVOA are Jameis Winston, Matt Ryan, Sam Bradford, Cam Newton, and Drew Brees. This should change over the final six weeks as the offense-first NFC South teams play more games against each other.

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Running Backs

There are much bigger opponent adjustments on running backs than quarterbacks this season. Melvin Gordon and DeMarco Murray have bounced back from poor 2015 performances in part -- not entirely, but in part -- thanks to easy schedules. Gordon's rating goes from -2.7% VOA to -11.8% DVOA with opponent adjustments. Murray goes from 8.9% to 0.7%.

But those differences are nothing compared to the backs who get a positive bump from opponent adjustments. LeSean McCoy goes from 9.4% to 28.4%. Carlos Hyde goes from -1.5% to 14.9%. Isaiah Crowell and Le'veon Bell also see their ratings go up by more than 10 percentage points when we add in the opponent adjustments. As for backs who spend more time as receivers, both James White and Bilal Powell are boosted over 10 percentage points in receiving DVOA when we add in opponent adjustments.

Wide Receivers

The opponent adjustments for Minnesota have worked in an interesting fashion. Bradford, as noted above, gets a boost -- but his wide receivers drop when we add in these adjustments. Stefon Diggs has been great this year, but he does go from 15.4% VOA to 10.1% DVOA with adjustments, the biggest drop of any receiver with at least 60 targets. Other receivers who are adjusted down due to schedule include Kenny Stills, Mohamed Sanu, Mike Wallace, and Brian Quick.

DeAndre Hopkins always had great numbers with bad Houston quarterbacks in the past, so what happened to him this year? DVOA suggests that schedule is part of the answer, as Hopkins goes from -11.6% VOA to -7.3% DVOA with opponent adjustments. That's the largest rise for a receiver with at least 60 targets. Receivers from Carolina, Detroit, Kansas City, New Orleans, Oakland, and San Diego also get some small bumps from opponent adjustments.

Tight Ends

Richard Rodgers is the biggest beneficiary of defenses that have trouble covering tight ends, although there isn't much value there to take away with adjustments. Rodgers goes from -15.3% VOA to -28.2% DVOA. Other tight ends who take a hit in opponent adjustments include Zach Ertz, C.J. Fiedorowicz, and Dennis Pitta. Also, Rob Gronkowski has played an easier than average schedule this year, so he drops from a league-best 62.6% VOA all the way to a league-best 56.9% DVOA once we factor in opponent adjustments.

On the other side, you'll find most of the tight ends of the AFC West, NFC West, and NFC South. Clive Walford has played the toughest schedule, going from -23.1% VOA to -13.6% DVOA once we add in adjustments. Other tight ends who get a significant boost from opponent adjustments include Cameron Brate, Jimmy Graham, Lance Kendricks, Greg Olsen, and a guy who is having a really good rookie season even though you have probably not heard anything about him: San Diego third-round pick Hunter Henry, who has 24 catches in 35 passes for 351 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 33.8% DVOA.

* * * * *

Once again this season, we have teamed up with EA Sports to bring Football Outsiders-branded player content to Madden 17 Ultimate Team. Each week, we'll be picking out a handful of players who starred in that week's games. Some of them will be well-known players who stood out in DVOA and DYAR. Others will be under-the-radar players who only stood out with advanced stats. We'll announce the players each Tuesday in the DVOA commentary article, and the players will be available in Madden Ultimate Team packs the following weekend, beginning at 11am Eastern on Friday. We will also tweet out images of these players from the @fboutsiders Twitter account on most Fridays. The best player of each week, the Football Outsiders Hero, will require you to collect a set of the other four Football Outsiders players that week, plus a certain number of Football Outsiders collectibles available in Madden Ultimate Team packs.

The Football Outsiders stars for Week 11 are:

  • WR Steve Smith, BAL (FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS HERO): No. 2 WR in DYAR; 8 catches on 9 passes, 99 yards, TD; reached 1,000 career catches.
  • FS Kurt Coleman, CAR: 9 combined tackles, interception, forced fumble.
  • RT Garry Gilliam, SEA: Helped limit NFL's No. 2 pass rush (by adjusted sack rate) to 1 sack for 0 yards.
  • LOLB Derrick Morgan, TEN: 1.5 sacks, run TFL, 6 QB knockdowns.
  • LT Ty Nsekhe, WAS: Controlled Clay Matthews pass rush all night and helped block for 5.65 yards per carry by Washington RB.

* * * * *

All stats pages are now updated through Week 11 of 2016. Playoff odds, and the premium DVOA database are also fully updated. Snap counts will be updated this evening. We're also glad to announce that drive stats and pace stats are now back and being updated weekly; expect the updates on those later tonight.

A bit of Thanksgiving housekeeping: There will be no Film Room, Word of Muth, or Week in Quotes this week because of the holiday weekend. There also won't be an FEI Ratings article, although the ratings are updated with last weekend's college games. We still will have Scramble for the Ball tomorrow, and then a Seventh Day Adventure tomorrow afternoon previewing the biggest games of Rivalry Week including Michigan-Ohio State.

* * * * *

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These are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings through 11 weeks of 2016, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here.)

OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted to consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season. As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE. As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE.

WEIGHTED DVOA represents an attempt to figure out how a team is playing right now, as opposed to over the season as a whole, by making recent games more important than earlier games.

To save people some time, please use the following format for all complaints:

<team> is clearly ranked <too high/too low> because <reason unrelated to DVOA>. <subjective ranking system> is way better than this. <unrelated team-supporting or -denigrating comment, preferably with poor spelling and/or chat-acceptable spelling>

TEAM TOTAL
DVOA
LAST
WEEK
WEI.
DVOA
RANK W-L OFFENSE
DVOA
OFF.
RANK
DEFENSE
DVOA
DEF.
RANK
S.T.
DVOA
S.T.
RANK
1 SEA 26.7% 2 27.8% 1 7-2-1 9.5% 9 -16.4% 5 0.7% 15
2 PHI 25.4% 1 24.3% 2 5-5 -5.3% 21 -21.6% 1 9.1% 1
3 NE 20.8% 5 22.1% 3 8-2 22.0% 3 3.1% 20 1.8% 12
4 DAL 19.2% 3 19.7% 4 9-1 25.8% 1 8.5% 25 1.9% 11
5 ATL 18.9% 4 19.5% 5 6-4 24.6% 2 8.6% 27 2.8% 6
6 MIA 12.3% 6 14.6% 6 6-4 0.6% 13 -10.7% 7 1.0% 13
7 WAS 11.3% 8 12.7% 7 6-3-1 15.3% 6 6.2% 22 2.2% 9
8 OAK 9.4% 7 8.9% 9 8-2 17.5% 4 10.0% 29 2.0% 10
9 BUF 9.1% 9 10.2% 8 5-5 10.0% 7 0.8% 16 -0.1% 17
10 PIT 7.2% 10 8.5% 10 5-5 7.6% 10 -0.4% 14 -0.8% 19
11 DEN 7.1% 11 6.7% 11 7-3 -11.1% 26 -17.7% 2 0.4% 16
12 MIN 6.0% 12 4.4% 13 6-4 -9.2% 23 -12.5% 6 2.7% 7
13 KC 5.5% 13 3.9% 14 7-3 -3.0% 20 -3.8% 11 4.7% 5
14 NO 4.4% 14 5.8% 12 4-6 15.7% 5 8.0% 24 -3.3% 22
15 NYG 3.8% 16 3.3% 15 7-3 -2.1% 17 -9.9% 8 -3.9% 28
16 SD 1.4% 20 1.3% 16 4-6 -1.5% 16 -4.4% 10 -1.5% 20
TEAM TOTAL
DVOA
LAST
WEEK
WEI.
DVOA
RANK W-L OFFENSE
DVOA
OFF.
RANK
DEFENSE
DVOA
DEF.
RANK
S.T.
DVOA
S.T.
RANK
17 BAL 0.8% 15 1.0% 17 5-5 -18.2% 30 -16.4% 4 2.5% 8
18 CIN -0.3% 17 -0.5% 18 3-6-1 6.5% 11 3.2% 21 -3.7% 26
19 ARI -0.6% 19 -2.1% 19 4-5-1 -10.6% 25 -16.6% 3 -6.6% 30
20 GB -3.1% 18 -5.0% 22 4-6 2.5% 12 1.9% 18 -3.8% 27
21 TEN -3.6% 21 -2.8% 20 5-6 9.6% 8 9.6% 28 -3.6% 25
22 CAR -4.5% 22 -4.7% 21 4-6 -2.4% 18 -2.3% 13 -4.3% 29
23 TB -6.4% 23 -6.4% 24 5-5 -2.8% 19 1.5% 17 -2.1% 21
24 CHI -6.9% 24 -5.0% 23 2-8 -5.4% 22 2.3% 19 0.8% 14
25 LARM -8.9% 25 -8.1% 25 4-6 -21.1% 31 -6.1% 9 6.1% 4
26 DET -13.2% 26 -12.9% 27 6-4 -0.4% 14 19.4% 32 6.7% 2
27 IND -13.6% 27 -12.8% 26 5-5 -1.2% 15 18.5% 31 6.1% 3
28 SF -18.4% 29 -18.4% 28 1-9 -9.8% 24 8.5% 26 -0.1% 18
29 JAC -20.1% 28 -19.8% 29 2-8 -16.9% 29 -0.3% 15 -3.5% 24
30 HOU -25.9% 30 -25.8% 30 6-4 -21.7% 32 -2.9% 12 -7.1% 31
31 NYJ -29.1% 31 -29.4% 31 3-7 -14.3% 27 7.0% 23 -7.8% 32
32 CLE -36.7% 32 -37.4% 32 0-11 -15.3% 28 17.9% 30 -3.5% 23
  • NON-ADJUSTED TOTAL DVOA does not include the adjustments for opponent strength or the adjustments for weather and altitude in special teams, and only penalizes offenses for lost fumbles rather than all fumbles.
  • ESTIMATED WINS uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles. Teams that have had their bye week are projected as if they had played one game per week.
  • PAST SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.
  • FUTURE SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents still left to play this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.
  • VARIANCE measures the statistical variance of the team's weekly DVOA performance. Teams are ranked from most consistent (#1, lowest variance) to least consistent (#32, highest variance).



TEAM TOTAL
DVOA
W-L NON-ADJ
TOT VOA
ESTIM.
WINS
RANK PAST
SCHED
RANK FUTURE
SCHED
RANK VAR. RANK
1 SEA 26.7% 7-2-1 23.5% 8.0 3 3.4% 7 -7.0% 27 9.6% 16
2 PHI 25.4% 5-5 23.5% 8.1 2 3.6% 6 5.3% 8 12.2% 26
3 NE 20.8% 8-2 18.8% 7.9 4 -1.7% 22 -7.8% 28 11.8% 23
4 DAL 19.2% 9-1 20.8% 8.5 1 -1.7% 20 4.5% 10 2.4% 2
5 ATL 18.9% 6-4 12.3% 7.8 5 5.4% 3 -3.7% 22 7.7% 11
6 MIA 12.3% 6-4 11.4% 7.1 6 -1.3% 18 -2.9% 19 17.0% 28
7 WAS 11.3% 6-3-1 11.8% 7.1 7 0.9% 15 6.1% 7 10.3% 20
8 OAK 9.4% 8-2 10.7% 6.3 10 -1.8% 23 0.8% 17 7.5% 9
9 BUF 9.1% 5-5 8.9% 6.2 11 2.4% 11 -9.5% 31 11.6% 22
10 PIT 7.2% 5-5 8.7% 5.8 15 2.9% 8 -6.1% 24 23.3% 32
11 DEN 7.1% 7-3 13.2% 6.0 13 -1.5% 19 2.9% 13 12.1% 25
12 MIN 6.0% 6-4 7.4% 6.4 9 -1.7% 21 -6.3% 25 10.3% 18
13 KC 5.5% 7-3 10.0% 6.0 14 -7.7% 31 6.7% 6 20.6% 31
14 NO 4.4% 4-6 6.4% 6.5 8 4.5% 5 -2.8% 18 2.8% 3
15 NYG 3.8% 7-3 -2.9% 6.1 12 4.8% 4 2.2% 14 1.3% 1
16 SD 1.4% 4-6 0.0% 4.9 21 2.7% 9 -9.8% 32 4.2% 4
TEAM TOTAL
DVOA
W-L NON-ADJ
TOT VOA
ESTIM.
WINS
RANK PAST
SCHED
RANK FUTURE
SCHED
RANK VAR. RANK
17 BAL 0.8% 5-5 9.1% 5.6 16 -6.2% 29 10.8% 1 8.4% 13
18 CIN -0.3% 3-6-1 -0.9% 5.4 18 2.5% 10 -4.7% 23 7.7% 10
19 ARI -0.6% 4-5-1 4.9% 4.9 20 -2.3% 25 10.8% 2 8.7% 14
20 GB -3.1% 4-6 -2.9% 4.6 22 0.2% 16 2.0% 16 12.5% 27
21 TEN -3.6% 5-6 5.7% 5.6 17 -8.8% 32 -8.1% 29 11.5% 21
22 CAR -4.5% 4-6 -7.5% 4.1 24 1.2% 14 10.2% 3 5.4% 7
23 TB -6.4% 5-5 -8.0% 4.5 23 2.0% 12 8.6% 5 17.9% 30
24 CHI -6.9% 2-8 -5.7% 4.0 26 -2.8% 26 -3.5% 21 17.5% 29
25 LARM -8.9% 4-6 -3.4% 5.1 19 -2.0% 24 8.6% 4 12.0% 24
26 DET -13.2% 6-4 -7.6% 4.1 25 -3.9% 27 3.9% 12 9.0% 15
27 IND -13.6% 5-5 -8.3% 3.8 27 -6.3% 30 -8.7% 30 5.2% 6
28 SF -18.4% 1-9 -23.3% 3.5 28 5.9% 1 2.2% 15 10.3% 19
29 JAC -20.1% 2-8 -11.8% 2.7 31 -4.9% 28 -3.5% 20 4.5% 5
30 HOU -25.9% 6-4 -20.4% 3.1 29 -0.9% 17 -6.6% 26 8.1% 12
31 NYJ -29.1% 3-7 -28.5% 3.1 30 1.5% 13 5.2% 9 9.8% 17
32 CLE -36.7% 0-11 -39.9% 0.0 32 5.9% 2 4.3% 11 5.6% 8

Comments

57 comments, Last at 25 Nov 2016, 1:24pm

1 Re: Week 11 DVOA Ratings

RT Garry Gilliam, SEA: Helped limit NFL's No. 2 pass rush (by adjusted sack rate) to 1 sack for 0 yards.

Thanks for the laugh, but in reality this should read:

WR Russell Wilson, SEA: Helped limit NFL's No. 2 pass rush (by adjusted sack rate) to 1 sack for 0 yards.

12 Re: Week 11 DVOA Ratings

As a hawks fan I am more worried about Seattle fielding RBs and DBs. To finish the game against Philly we had Boykin, our 2nd string QB in at RB, taking carries. Maybe cutting Christine Michael was a mistake...

23 Re: Week 11 DVOA Ratings

"Russell Wilson's surgically implanted horseshoe"?

Horseshoe? Only after he gets sacked about four times by the Colts. At their present sack rate, that will be 2023 or seven head to head games, whichever comes later.

4 Re: Week 11 DVOA Ratings

Week 11 BES Rankings are out - http://besreport.com/week-11-bes-rankings-2016/

Dallas still No. 1 for a third straight week with the Patriots close behind at No. 2. Kinda surprised to see the Falcons so high in DVOA, likely due to offense understandably. The BES has them just outside the Top-10 at No. 11. Oddly, the BES has three NFC East teams not named the Eagles in the top-10 whereas DVOA has them at No. 2. I'd have expected them to have fallen further after losing three of their last four games.

Nonetheless, always a great read from the DVOA Ratings and Mr. Schatz!

8 Re: Week 11 DVOA Ratings

https://www.profootballfocus.com/pro-lowest-graded-player-at-every-position-in-nfl-week-11/

How does Gary Gilliam simultaneously rank as the worst RT in the league by PFF and as one of the FootballOutsiders Stars of the Week? I really don't understand.

11 Re: Week 11 DVOA Ratings

well, it is based on opinion not facts. one site sees things diferent than other site.

it is like if you look at clouds and see john madden eating a pie nd perosn next toi you looking at same clouds sees a cigar store indian blowing bubbles.

9 Re: Week 11 DVOA Ratings

No way are Eagles betteer than the Raiders. Maybe can see Cowboys, Pates, Falcons, seahawks but thst is It. Squirrels not better, Miami nope. Squirrels pretty food but better beat Dallas and giants when play them later. Othwrrsie. Might finish 3rd place althofuh 3rd place in bfc east slcould still get a playoff berth
Wonder if Eags have picture of DVOA doing naked things. It is like DVOA is scared of Eags revealing pictures. So DVOA said. "Okay, Eags, we will keep ranking you high."

16 Re: Week 11 DVOA Ratings

Dude you missed the note at the bottom of the ratings:

To save people some time, please use the following format for all complaints:

<team> is clearly ranked <too high/too low> because <reason unrelated to DVOA>. <subjective ranking system> is way better than this. <unrelated team-supporting or -denigrating comment, preferably with poor spelling and/or chat-acceptable spelling>

41 Re: Week 11 DVOA Ratings

Let's see:
. team ranked too high -> RJ check (several teams mentioned as too high)
. because -> RJ check
. subjective ranking system -> RJ missing
. unrelated denigrated comment -> RJ check
. poor and chat-acceptable spelling -> RJ check, check, check, ....

Filling out forms: come own, RJ don't need no stiknin froms

19 Kings, saints, squirrels, assassins and pecan pie

Why do you hate Good King Tammany, Raiderjoe? He was the patron Saint who defended American from the villainous redcoats of St. George. And now his team, the team of the original American hero, valiantly represents the capital of our nation. This week they fight to reclaim Thanksgiving for us all from the ruinous tyranny of notorious secessionists and presidential assassins. I can understand hating Snyder, but not the Redskins. They're the last best chance to bring balance to the NFC. Frankly, this squirrel thing is just nuts.

30 Re: Week 11 DVOA Ratings

Yep...they are the biggest joke a statistical/analytical model ever produced...a real paper champion with a glass jaw...and it's a perennial thing, for all the good it has done for their postseason aspirations.

15 Re: Week 11 DVOA Ratings

"The Ravens were actually more efficient, gaining 7.1 yards per play compared to 6.2 yards per play for Dallas."

So why would Baltimore more down if they outplayed the #4 cowboys? Or do unnecessary roughness penalties ding a teams DVOA?

21 Re: Week 11 DVOA Ratings

Yards isn't the only thing that matters for DVOA ratings, if you gain yards, but fail in the redzone, that will affect ratings, plus things on special teams like having a better starting field position will offset the difference in Y/P for a specific game.

31 Re: Week 11 DVOA Ratings

Gee...I wonder if Flacco and the Ravens would trade 7.1 for 6.2 yds per play and a win? He did say that they should have beaten the Cowboys...someone should have told the defense that failed to force a single punt after 12:23 of the second quarter.

17 Re: Week 11 DVOA Ratings

Looking at the Super Bowl Matchups.."43 states of hatred" Lol! And I'd have to say, we're not all that sure about Connecticut. Fairfield County is Giants territory.

:)

54 Re: Week 11 DVOA Ratings

It's a fun way to express the idea that the Cowboys (historically) and the Patriots (recently) are 2 of the most hated teams in the NFL, and thus only 7 out of the 50 states will enjoy that Super Bowl (the 6 New England states plus Texas). Of course, the state list appears to be from a coastal perspective, as I'm pretty sure the Cowboys are the favorite team in more than just Texas (Oklahoma? Arkansas?). Maybe some Cowboys fans can elaborate.

55 Re: Week 11 DVOA Ratings

There are various maps on line that show this and a quick search shows the Cowboys are also heavily favored in New Mexico.

Here is one from USA Today, supposedly built from Twitter data:

http://ftw.usatoday.com/2014/10/twitter-map-nfl-fans

22 Re: Week 11 DVOA Ratings

Aaron,

Anyway, I've written so much about the Eagles in DVOA commentary this year that they're building a Wawa in the back of my apartment.

That's awesome and gave this former Jersey boy a big laugh. Is Tanier ghost-writing some of your jokes?

25 Re: Week 11 DVOA Ratings

Wow, DVOA truly hates the Texans with two of three rankings in the 30's. I know TEN is ranked higher then IND, but with a game lead and a season sweep, the Colts should finish ahead of TEN. Now if Osweiler keeps being Osweiler, the truly uninspiring Colts could host a postseason game, probably an AFCW team prepared to lay waste to Lucas Oil Stadium. And then Colts fans could get a small dose of playoff structure revenge (crappy division winner hosting the game) if they win like the 8-8 Chargers did in 2008 when they hosted the 12-4 Colts and won.

28 Special Teams

Interesting that you are looking into the weather adjustment for special teams. An apt time to task: how truly random is HIDDEN points? I ask because:

Giants
Year / Hidden Points / Rank
2011 / -3.8 / 21
2012 / -3.1 / 22
2013 / -12.8 / 32
2014 / -13.3 / 30
2015 / -6.4 / 24
2016 / -9.6 / 30

Jets
Year / Hidden Points / Rank
2011 / -8.3 / 26
2012 / -6.7 / 26
2013 / -3.7 / 20
2014 / -2.6 / 22
2015 / -7.9 / 26
2016 / -12.8 / 32

Steelers
Year / Hidden Points / Rank
2011 / -9.0 / 28
2012 / -9.4 / 30
2013 / -6.0 / 24
2014 / -13.5 / 31
2015 / -11.1 / 30
2016 / -2.1 / 20

On the other hand, Baltimore has had negative hidden points every season under John Harbaugh (an average of -8 per year) ... until 2016, when it ranks #1.

29 Re: Week 11 DVOA Ratings

"Baltimore gave the Cowboys 60 yards with unnecessary roughness, roughing the passer, and a face mask penalty." and Dallas gift-wrapped Baltimore seven points with a facemask penalty on Crawford on third and 12 in the 4th quarter...a sack that was nullified and allowed Baltimore to keep the drive going. The real story is that Dallas never punted after 12:23 of the second quarter...five consecutive scoring drives...you can blame it on penalties, which is just weak sauce, or you can acknowledge that the Ravens defense is garbage (compared to the Dallas offense), even if it was the #2 defense on your list. I guess it's time to pump up Minnesota...

32 Re: Week 11 DVOA Ratings

As always, I look at the past and future schedule 1st:
ATL #3 Past/#22 future
BAL #29/#1

And then there is JAC, who is 2-8 with the #28 past schedule - which just shows that they have to be, along with ARZ, the most underperforming team in the NFL.

33 Playoff odds

I was looking at the playoff odds and, wow, the NFC East! Every team in the division has a higher probability of being a wildcard than any other team in any other division in the conference, and the lowest (Dallas) is only low because they are favored to win the division. Assuming that the probabilities are simply percentages of simulations, the east owns 170.8% of the wildcard slots. (Out of 200 as two.)

I had a few questions. What is the probability that the east gets three playoff spots? How rare is it for a division to dominate like this? And how rare is it for all four teams to have such a strong shot at the post-season?

44 Re: Playoff odds

In 2014, the Bengals, Steelers and Ravens made it.

In 2013: Chiefs, Chargers Broncos.

In 2007: Titans, Jaguars, Colts.

In 2006: Cowboys, Eagles, Giants.

So I count 4 times (29%) in the 14-year history of the current divisional setup.

36 Re: Week 11 DVOA Ratings

I wonder if the Raiders-Texans game was a good one to include in DVOA. Was that really a test of the better team in relevant circumstances, or just which team handled an altitude of 7,400 feet better. That is 2100 feet higher than Denver. Did the Raiders win because they play Denver twice a year?

56 Re: Week 11 DVOA Ratings

Isn't one of those games played in Oakland?

Actually seemed to me like the Texans had that game wrapped up until they allowed the Raiders to break two long TDs. I don't think that was down to lack of conditioning for the Texans defense given that they were only on the field for 23-mins.