DVOA Analysis
Football Outsiders' revolutionary metrics that break down every single play of the NFL season

Week 10 DVOA Ratings

by Aaron Schatz

Another big victory helps the Los Angeles Rams increase their lead on top of the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings this week. The Rams move up to the No. 1 spot in defense this week, making them our top team for both defense and special teams. They are now our Super Bowl favorite, winning it in one out of every six simulations (16.7 percent). The Saints move into the No. 2 spot after their huge 47-10 win over Buffalo, replacing the Pittsburgh Steelers, who drop to No. 4 after barely beating Indianapolis. Philadelphia remains at No. 3 after a bye week.

The top of the DVOA ratings shows a very strong dichotomy between the two conferences this season. The NFC has the top three teams and four of the top five. If we go deeper, the NFC has nine of the top 13 teams. If we look at weighted DVOA, it's eight of the top 11 teams, since Kansas City is eighth in full-season DVOA but drops to 12th in weighted DVOA. Of course, you don't need DVOA to know how imbalanced the conferences are this year. There are ten teams with winning records in the NFC and only six teams with winning records in the AFC.

As far as those AFC teams, this was a big week for the New England Patriots, who finally moved into the top ten where conventional wisdom says they belong. Their offense is now over 30%, the special teams have risen to fifth in the league, and the defense moves up another spot to No. 30! The Patriots had one of their better defensive games this week, but let's be honest, holding down Brock Osweiler when his team is constantly blowing field position with special teams flubs is not too difficult.

Of course, it was only two weeks ago that we actually had Buffalo higher than the Patriots in DVOA. At that point, Buffalo was tenth and the Patriots were 13th. After they got run over by the Saints, Buffalo is now 21st with the Patriots up to seventh.

It seems like we do this every year with these two teams. I went back and looked, and while it isn't a regular occurance every single year, there really is a strong trend for the Patriots to get better later in the season while the Bills tend to start strong and then fall apart. I'm not sure why this trend should exist over the last few years, when Buffalo has had multiple front office setups and multiple head coaches, but it does.

I picked Week 6 as the week to measure since that was when this year's Bills had their bye week. Check out the trends for these two teams. First, here's Buffalo, which has seen its DVOA drop after Week 6 in four of the last six seasons. This year probably will make it five of seven.

Buffalo Bills DVOA, Week 6 vs. Final, 2011-2016
After Week 6 End of Season
Year W-L DVOA Rank W-L DVOA Rank
2011 4-2 19.2% 4 6-10 -9.7% 23
2012 3-3 -21.0% 27 6-10 -12.1% 23
2013 2-4 4.2% 14 6-10 -3.3% 18
2014 3-3 0.2% 18 9-7 10.5% 9
2015 3-3 13.4% 8 8-8 2.7% 12
2016 4-2 22.6% 3 7-9 1.0% 17
AVG -- 6.4% 12.3 -- -1.8% 17.0

Now, here are the Patriots, who have seen their DVOA rise after Week 6 every year in the past six except for 2015.

New England Patriots DVOA, Week 6 vs. Final, 2011-2016
After Week 6 End of Season
Year W-L DVOA Rank W-L DVOA Rank
2011 5-1 18.0% 6 13-3 22.8% 3
2012 3-3 25.1% 6 12-4 34.9% 3
2013 5-1 8.8% 13 12-4 18.9% 5
2014 4-2 9.4% 11 12-4 22.1% 4
2015 5-0 44.4% 2 12-4 22.6% 6
2016 5-1 13.5% 7 14-2 24.9% 1
AVG -- 19.9% 7.5 -- 24.4% 3.7

I went and ran this same set of numbers for every team, looking at the last six seasons. Yes, that's a totally arbitary set of years, but for the moment, we're just having fun with this.

Buffalo had the highest average change in DVOA rank when we compare Week 6 to final DVOA from 2011-2016. The New York Jets also had a strong pattern of late-season decline, especially since you can't go any lower than 32nd:

New York Jets DVOA, Week 6 vs. Final, 2011-2016
After Week 6 End of Season
Year W-L DVOA Rank W-L DVOA Rank
2011 3-3 18.6% 5 8-8 13.5% 10
2012 3-3 -2.4% 17 6-10 -18.0% 27
2013 3-3 -2.7% 18 8-8 -7.7% 24
2014 1-5 -21.0% 28 4-12 -15.5% 27
2015 4-1 26.9% 5 10-6 12.4% 9
2016 1-5 -36.1% 32 5-11 -32.4% 32
AVG -- -2.8% 17.5 -- -7.9% 21.5

Atlanta also had a strong decline trend for second halves, but that's essentially just a three-year trend from their three years in the postseason wilderness from 2013 to 2015. Last year, the Falcons were sixth in DVOA after Week 6 but ended the year third. The Packers have a high average drop, but that's pretty much all from the year Aaron Rodgers got injured at midseason. (After this year, that "trend" will be even worse.)

On the other side, one team more than any other team -- including the Patriots -- has a strong recent history of improving in the second half of the season. Some of this was early-season suspensions or injuries to the quarterback, of course. This team has dropped in the DVOA ratings since Week 6 of this season, but they also get to play five of their final seven games at home this year. Hello, Pittsburgh Steelers.

Pittsburgh Steelers DVOA, Week 6 vs. Final, 2011-2016
After Week 6 End of Season
Year W-L DVOA Rank W-L DVOA Rank
2011 4-2 9.8% 10 12-4 22.6% 4
2012 2-3 -10.4% 21 8-8 -1.2% 18
2013 1-4 -6.2% 21 8-8 0.9% 15
2014 3-3 -1.5% 20 11-5 12.1% 8
2015 4-2 20.9% 6 10-6 21.3% 7
2016 4-2 8.3% 12 11-5 17.1% 4
AVG -- 3.5% 15.0 -- 12.1% 9.3

Other teams with a similar trend include Carolina (except it is mostly 2011 and 2012, hooray for my arbitary endpoints) and Houston (which is not happening this year).

Of course, the proper way to look at this would be to look at it without arbitary endpoints, concentrating instead on teams that have had consistency at the head coach position. That's a project for another time, but I looked at a few well-tenured head coaches quickly.

  • In 11 of 17 seasons since Bill Belichick took over, New England has ended the season with a higher DVOA than it had after Week 6. If we include this season, it will be eight out of the last ten. 2009 and 2015 are the exceptions.
  • I took Andy Reid all the way back to the start of his time with the Eagles. From 1999 to 2012, the Eagles had a lower DVOA at the end of the season compared to Week 6 in nine out of 14 seasons. One season was basically the same. Only four seasons saw DVOA go up, and only two seasons by more than 3.0%: 2003 (from -3.9% to 19.6%) and 2011 (from 1.8% to 13.5%). However, the Chiefs have increased their DVOA in the second half of the season in three of Reid's four years there.
  • The Marvin Lewis Bengals have ended the season with a higher DVOA compared to Week 6 in eight out of 14 seasons, plus two of the six declines were really tiny. However, the Bengals have only gotten better in the second half twice in the last six seasons (2012 and 2016).
  • The Sean Payton Saints don't have a strong trend: four seasons they got better, four seasons they got worse, two were about the same, and one Payton was suspended.
  • Results for John Harbaugh's Ravens are also mixed: four seasons up, four seasons down, one about the same.
  • The only clear trend for Mike McCarthy whether we look at six years or all 11 years: "Aaron Rodgers getting injured is bad."
  • In Mike Tomlin's first season with Pittsburgh, the Steelers ranked fourth with 33.6% DVOA after Week 6 but were sixth at 19.4% DVOA by the end of the season. In every season since then, nine straight seasons from 2008 to 2016, Pittsburgh's DVOA has been higher at the end of the season than it was after Week 6.

* * * * *

Once again this season, we have teamed up with EA Sports to bring Football Outsiders-branded player content to Madden 18. This year, our content for Madden Ultimate Team on consoles comes monthly, while our content for Madden Mobile comes weekly. Come back to each Tuesday's DVOA commentary article for a list of players who stood out during the previous weekend's games. Those players will get special Madden Mobile items branded as "Powerline, powered by Football Outsiders," beginning at 11am Eastern on Friday.

  • DE Adrian Clayborn, ATL (HERO): 6 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, fumble recovery.
  • HB Rex Burkhead, NE: Third among RB in DYAR for Week 10 (10 carries for 36 yards against NFL's best run defense; 27 receiving yards, TD).
  • LB Lavonte David, TB: Six defeats, including two run TFL, two run stuff on third down, and two tackles short of sticks on third-down receptions.
  • CB Darryl Roberts, NYJ: Led all defenders with 8 successful Week 10 plays, including interception and two tackles to prevent third-down conversions.
  • G Larry Warford, NO: Helped block for 294 rushing yards by Saints RB, with no sacks allowed.

* * * * *

All stats pages should now be updated through Week 10, including snap counts, playoff odds, and the FO Premium DVOA database.

* * * * *

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These are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings through 10 weeks of 2017, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here.)

OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted to consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season. As of this week, all opponent adjustments are at full strength.

WEIGHTED DVOA represents an attempt to figure out how a team is playing right now, as opposed to over the season as a whole, by making recent games more important than earlier games.

To save people some time, please use the following format for all complaints:

<team> is clearly ranked <too high/too low> because <reason unrelated to DVOA>. <subjective ranking system> is way better than this. <unrelated team-supporting or -denigrating comment, preferably with poor spelling and/or chat-acceptable spelling>

TEAM TOTAL
DVOA
LAST
WEEK
WEI.
DVOA
RANK W-L OFFENSE
DVOA
OFF.
RANK
DEFENSE
DVOA
DEF.
RANK
S.T.
DVOA
S.T.
RANK
1 LARM 37.1% 1 38.4% 1 7-2 10.1% 11 -19.1% 1 7.8% 1
2 NO 32.1% 5 35.5% 2 7-2 22.1% 2 -13.3% 5 -3.4% 25
3 PHI 29.0% 3 30.3% 3 8-1 13.9% 5 -9.6% 8 5.5% 6
4 PIT 26.8% 2 25.3% 4 7-2 13.1% 6 -15.6% 4 -1.9% 21
5 MIN 24.1% 6 24.1% 5 7-2 13.1% 7 -8.9% 9 2.1% 14
6 JAC 17.9% 4 19.4% 6 6-3 4.8% 12 -18.2% 2 -5.2% 26
7 NE 16.1% 13 17.7% 7 7-2 30.3% 1 20.4% 30 6.1% 5
8 KC 14.8% 7 10.6% 12 6-3 19.7% 3 11.7% 26 6.7% 4
9 CAR 13.6% 14 13.0% 8 7-3 -1.6% 20 -11.7% 6 3.5% 11
10 DET 12.5% 11 10.8% 11 5-4 -1.7% 21 -6.9% 11 7.3% 2
11 SEA 10.9% 9 12.5% 9 6-3 0.9% 14 -10.3% 7 -0.3% 19
12 GB 10.4% 15 10.5% 13 5-4 11.9% 9 1.9% 18 0.4% 15
13 DAL 9.0% 8 11.4% 10 5-4 12.1% 8 6.8% 22 3.7% 10
14 BAL 8.4% 10 5.8% 14 4-5 -15.8% 27 -17.3% 3 6.9% 3
15 WAS 6.5% 16 4.9% 15 4-5 4.4% 13 -5.4% 13 -3.2% 24
16 ATL 2.6% 19 1.4% 17 5-4 10.2% 10 7.7% 24 0.0% 18
TEAM TOTAL
DVOA
LAST
WEEK
WEI.
DVOA
RANK W-L OFFENSE
DVOA
OFF.
RANK
DEFENSE
DVOA
DEF.
RANK
S.T.
DVOA
S.T.
RANK
17 HOU 2.2% 12 2.4% 16 3-6 -0.7% 17 -5.1% 15 -2.2% 22
18 LACH -4.0% 21 -3.2% 18 3-6 0.2% 15 -5.3% 14 -9.5% 31
19 TEN -5.2% 18 -7.8% 20 6-3 -0.2% 16 7.2% 23 2.2% 13
20 OAK -6.5% 20 -7.9% 21 4-5 15.0% 4 24.0% 32 2.5% 12
21 BUF -6.6% 17 -8.3% 22 5-4 -8.6% 22 2.7% 20 4.6% 7
22 CIN -8.9% 23 -7.6% 19 3-6 -13.5% 24 -5.0% 16 -0.4% 20
23 TB -17.1% 25 -18.7% 26 3-6 -1.6% 19 13.1% 28 -2.4% 23
24 DEN -17.6% 22 -20.7% 27 3-6 -14.5% 25 -6.9% 12 -9.9% 32
25 CHI -18.4% 26 -16.8% 23 3-6 -19.1% 30 -7.3% 10 -6.6% 28
26 ARI -18.7% 27 -18.0% 25 4-5 -12.7% 23 -2.1% 17 -8.0% 29
27 NYJ -20.2% 24 -17.4% 24 4-6 -18.1% 29 2.5% 19 0.4% 16
28 SF -24.6% 29 -24.2% 28 1-9 -16.4% 28 12.2% 27 4.0% 8
29 NYG -26.9% 28 -26.5% 30 1-8 -1.2% 18 16.7% 29 -9.0% 30
30 IND -28.1% 30 -25.4% 29 3-7 -22.1% 31 9.9% 25 3.9% 9
31 CLE -32.2% 32 -30.6% 31 0-9 -23.2% 32 3.1% 21 -5.8% 27
32 MIA -35.2% 31 -35.9% 32 4-5 -14.6% 26 20.6% 31 0.1% 17
  • NON-ADJUSTED TOTAL DVOA does not include the adjustments for opponent strength or the adjustments for weather and altitude in special teams, and only penalizes offenses for lost fumbles rather than all fumbles.
  • ESTIMATED WINS uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles. Teams that have had their bye week are projected as if they had played one game per week.
  • PAST SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.
  • FUTURE SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents still left to play this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.
  • VARIANCE measures the statistical variance of the team's weekly DVOA performance. Teams are ranked from most consistent (#1, lowest variance) to least consistent (#32, highest variance).



TEAM TOTAL
DVOA
W-L NON-ADJ
TOT VOA
ESTIM.
WINS
RANK PAST
SCHED
RANK FUTURE
SCHED
RANK VAR. RANK
1 LARM 37.1% 7-2 41.1% 8.0 2 -5.8% 29 6.8% 6 16.4% 26
2 NO 32.1% 7-2 29.1% 9.6 1 -0.1% 17 -1.0% 21 14.1% 22
3 PHI 29.0% 8-1 34.4% 7.9 3 -5.6% 28 2.0% 15 10.1% 14
4 PIT 26.8% 7-2 27.0% 7.3 5 -1.1% 21 -1.3% 22 9.4% 13
5 MIN 24.1% 7-2 21.3% 7.5 4 3.2% 7 7.0% 5 5.3% 3
6 JAC 17.9% 6-3 20.4% 5.7 13 0.9% 12 -13.7% 31 28.9% 32
7 NE 16.1% 7-2 15.9% 6.1 10 0.7% 13 -11.9% 30 10.9% 16
8 KC 14.8% 6-3 11.9% 6.9 6 6.8% 3 -16.7% 32 14.4% 23
9 CAR 13.6% 7-3 13.4% 6.5 7 -1.0% 20 5.3% 11 4.5% 2
10 DET 12.5% 5-4 7.7% 6.3 9 3.5% 6 -2.8% 24 2.8% 1
11 SEA 10.9% 6-3 19.0% 5.8 12 -5.3% 27 7.5% 3 6.5% 7
12 GB 10.4% 5-4 4.5% 6.4 8 5.1% 4 5.2% 12 6.6% 8
13 DAL 9.0% 5-4 12.1% 6.0 11 -1.8% 22 5.4% 10 17.5% 27
14 BAL 8.4% 4-5 14.8% 4.2 21 -4.2% 25 -2.5% 23 20.0% 30
15 WAS 6.5% 4-5 -2.9% 4.8 16 13.6% 1 -7.6% 27 12.1% 18
16 ATL 2.6% 5-4 7.4% 5.2 14 -2.1% 23 11.2% 1 7.8% 11
TEAM TOTAL
DVOA
W-L NON-ADJ
TOT VOA
ESTIM.
WINS
RANK PAST
SCHED
RANK FUTURE
SCHED
RANK VAR. RANK
17 HOU 2.2% 3-6 -3.5% 4.7 18 2.5% 8 -3.4% 25 19.7% 29
18 LACH -4.0% 3-6 1.9% 3.9 22 -2.9% 24 -5.0% 26 6.3% 4
19 TEN -5.2% 6-3 2.9% 5.1 15 -7.9% 31 1.8% 17 21.8% 31
20 OAK -6.5% 4-5 2.5% 4.7 17 -6.6% 30 2.9% 14 12.4% 19
21 BUF -6.6% 5-4 0.7% 4.5 20 -4.7% 26 -7.9% 28 15.5% 24
22 CIN -8.9% 3-6 -10.4% 4.6 19 -0.7% 19 0.5% 18 18.2% 28
23 TB -17.1% 3-6 -14.5% 3.8 23 -0.6% 18 5.5% 9 10.4% 15
24 DEN -17.6% 3-6 -12.9% 3.6 24 2.3% 9 -11.1% 29 15.6% 25
25 CHI -18.4% 3-6 -27.2% 3.0 26 12.4% 2 1.8% 16 6.4% 6
26 ARI -18.7% 4-5 -16.6% 2.8 27 0.5% 15 6.1% 7 8.3% 12
27 NYJ -20.2% 4-6 -9.3% 3.2 25 -10.3% 32 9.1% 2 13.3% 20
28 SF -24.6% 1-9 -26.1% 2.3 28 1.4% 10 7.4% 4 6.4% 5
29 NYG -26.9% 1-8 -27.9% 2.0 30 3.9% 5 5.8% 8 7.6% 10
30 IND -28.1% 3-7 -27.7% 2.2 29 0.5% 14 -0.2% 20 12.1% 17
31 CLE -32.2% 0-9 -34.2% 1.8 31 1.3% 11 4.6% 13 13.3% 21
32 MIA -35.2% 4-5 -29.6% 1.8 32 0.1% 16 -0.1% 19 7.2% 9

Comments

138 comments, Last at 21 Nov 2017, 6:43pm

1 Re: Week 10 DVOA Ratings

As someone that has watched every Packers game it feels odd to see them middling in each phase of the game, they frequently feel utterly inept more often than not.

9 Re: Week 10 DVOA Ratings

On defense the Pack are 30th in drive success rate while ranking 19th in DVOA. If I'm understanding these stats correctly it would match my perception that the best thing they have been doing is forcing opponents to at least convert some third and fourth downs as they march down the field.

On one hand, maybe that means they're due for some sort of correction in their overall defensive performance if they can stop more 3rd downs. On the other hand, it looks like they also lead the league in fumbles recovered per drive, so that would likely lead to correction back the other way...

2 Re: Week 10 DVOA Ratings

Rams defense is going to get even better, I think. The Vikings will have a very hard time beating them in Minneapolis, and what chance they have rests on the Vikings defense obtaining benefit from HFA to force Goff into some turnovers. If The Keeser is forced to try to throw the Vikings into catching up, because the Rams score significant 1st half points, it'll get ugly. 16-13 is the Vikings best chance.

3 Re: Week 10 DVOA Ratings

You should look at The Panthers starting with Ron Rivera, since slow start/strong finish is kind of expected at this point... Last year was a bit of an outlier with Cam's shoulder though...

4 Re: Week 10 DVOA Ratings

Denver is clearly ranked too low, having faith in your team no matter what is way better than this! They only signed Brockweiler as a test to see if their HC was dumb enough to actually play him. Obviously he'll be fired after the season, right?

5 Re: Week 10 DVOA Ratings

Week 10 BES Rankings went out this morning - http://besreport.com/week-10-bes-rankings-2017/

The BES is showing the same gap in conferences as DVOA with seven of the BES Top-10 hailing from the NFC. That includes four of the top-5 with the Saints ranked No. 1 for a fourth consecutive week.

I see the Saints are closing on the Rams in Weighted DVOA. It's the opposite in the BES where the Rams are making a strong push up the rankings. Actually Weighted DVOA and the BES agree on quite a few teams, especially the Chiefs at No. 12.

And how about the Chargers? They're easily the highest ranked three-win team in the BES at No. 14. I see they're not far off in DVOA/Weighted DVOA at No. 18 but certainly a better 3-win team at this point than the Texans who've fallen to No. 22 in the BES.

6 Re: Week 10 DVOA Ratings

Its interesting that the NFC is grouped at the top with a bunch of 7 and 8 win teams, but their future schedules really separate from here.

New Orleans and Philly have a few tough games but a generally easy schedule.

Atlanta, Seattle, LA Rams, and Minnesota have tough roads left to finish the season.

The Rams play 5 teams in a current playoff spot the rest of the way.
Titans, Eagles, Saints, Seahawks and Vikings

Carolina falls somewhere in the middle with Saints, Vikings, and Falcons.

I am sure Rodgers has week 16 circled as a chance to ruin the Vikings season.

7 Re: Week 10 DVOA Ratings

Its interesting that the NFC is grouped at the top with a bunch of 7 and 8 win teams, but their future schedules really separate from here.

New Orleans and Philly have a few tough games but a generally easy schedule.

Atlanta, Seattle, LA Rams, and Minnesota have tough roads left to finish the season.

The Rams play 5 teams in a current playoff spot the rest of the way.
Titans, Eagles, Saints, Seahawks and Vikings

Carolina falls somewhere in the middle with Saints, Vikings, and Falcons.

I am sure Rodgers has week 16 circled as a chance to ruin the Vikings season.

55 Re: Week 10 DVOA Ratings

Keenum's 2017 season kind of reminds me of Andy Dalton's 2015 season. 2015 Dalton had AJ Green, Tyler Eifert, Marvin Jones, Mohamed Sanu, good running backs, and excellent offensive line.

The Bengals are probably wondering why Dalton suddenly got worse when they chose not the re-sign a lot of their non-AJ Green skill players and best offensive lineman, and Eifert kept getting hurt.

Somebody will want to give Keenum a lot of money next offseason. If I were him, I would be very careful about which team I signed with.

56 Re: Week 10 DVOA Ratings

If he gets starter money, I'm sending my GM resume out to 32 teams. How a supposed professional football talent evaluator could not see how favorable an environment he has worked in thus far (schedule gets a lot harder now, so who knows what happens for the next 7 weeks), and how he simply doesn't throw the ball well enough, is beyond my understanding.

60 Re: Week 10 DVOA Ratings

You could have given that advice pre-draft to San Diego in 2004 (all things considered, it was good advice). I don't know why you dislike your QB so much given that your favorite site has him ranked #4 in the league and your favorite team is in first place. Record setting, short, high-volume college spread QBs can never take a few years to adjust to the NFL, can they?

I mean, I sometimes yell at Brees when things aren't looking good. And sometimes he doesn't throw receivers open or throws right to a LB. He doesn't always get the distance right on long throws. And once he's forced out of the pocket, good things rarely happen. But then I remember he is first ballot HOF and his name isn't Billy Joe fill in the blank.

64 Re: Week 10 DVOA Ratings

FO will be the first ones to inform us that what they have ranked #4 is Keenum throwing to the Vikings receivers, behind the Vikings offensive line, both of which have been wonderful this year. Keenum is a terrific back up, who does not throw the ball especially well (the comparison with Brees is problematic), which means his margin for error is very,very, thin. That's been ok so far this year, because they have dominated opponents pretty well. This last game against the Redskins was a good example, with the Vikings o-line controlling the game throughout. Ya'just can't count on that.

71 Re: Week 10 DVOA Ratings

Some things in life are bad
They can really make you mad
Other things just make you swear and curse
When you're chewing on life's gristle
Don't grumble, give a whistle
And this'll help things turn out for the best
And always look on the bright side of life
Always look on the light side of life

73 Re: Week 10 DVOA Ratings

Hey, I really don't care all that much who wins these games, and decided quite a while ago that the game is more enjoyable that way. If The Keeser ends up being John Unitas,Joe Montana, and Peyton Manning, rolled into one, that'll be damned entertaining.

136 Re: Week 10 DVOA Ratings

One of the underappreciated aspects of the early Carroll/Schneider era is how firm they were in the belief "cheap, mediocre players are out there, if we can just find them", then went all in on the belief and went through epic levels of roster churn, turning over every rock in the forest.

It had almost no impact on the team's record, since they weren't finding stars, but every guy they brought in was a little cheaper or a little better than the guy he replaced, so either the cap situation or the talent pool got better each time.

I strongly believe that coaches who overpay for mediocrity either (1) overestimate their own X's and O's genius, or (2) don't have confidence in their own ability to evaluate talent.

I mean, it's a truism that the talent is out there. Just look back at the end of each season and tally up - across the league - how many waiver claims, street free agents, mid-season releases, veteran minimum signings, and low-round trade targets ended up contributing to their final destination teams.

It would take balls of steel to even try convincing a GM to go along with it - and maybe it would require a similarly-balled GM - but I have to believe that what Carroll and Schneider did is repeatable. That you can actually build the skeleton of a cheap, mediocre, team if you trust the process, trust your evaluation, and really buy in to it.

Of course, if you fail, you're going to burn for it - but wouldn't you rather go down that way than signing Mike Glennon to an over-value contract?

78 Re: Week 10 DVOA Ratings

Jones and Sanu always just kind of seemed like "guys" in the Cincinnati offense to me. But now they seem to be important pieces to their new teams. That leads me to believe that they were probably much more important to Cincinnati than I had realized.

15 Re: Week 10 DVOA Ratings

Weird that Thielen has 3 fumbles while no other wide receiver in the NFL appears to have more than one. Doubt it explains the difference between having an average DVOA vs. top 10 or so, but wonder just how big of an impact those fumbles have.

32 Re: Week 10 DVOA Ratings

And looking at this I just realized the WR stats were not updated for Week 10. No wonder Thielen was so low -- his monster game against Washington wasn't counted!

We also need to update receiving numbers for RBs and TEs. We'll get that fixed ASAP.

34 Re: Week 10 DVOA Ratings

Thanks very much Vince! Looks like he'll be in the top 10 in WR DYAR this week either way, but that those fumbles give enough of a hit that, without them, he may have already ranked closer to 10-15th rather than 27th last week.

50 Re: Week 10 DVOA Ratings

Sorry, this is on me. For some reason the receiving numbers didn't update yesterday when I thought I had updated them. Taking care of that now.

UPDATE: I've fixed this now and yes, Thielen is a LOT higher in DYAR/DVOA after Week 10. Apologies again for the mix-up.

38 Re: Week 10 DVOA Ratings

That makes things a little closer to the eye test. But still seems low for just how well Thielen has played. He wins so many contested balls on not great throws by Keenum, and when Keenum hits him on deep balls he's usually 5 yards open at least.

39 Re: Week 10 DVOA Ratings

I don't see enough Vikes games to be sure but when a guy with ordinary speed is able to gain this type of separation that is often because of incredible hip change/shift fluidity. Antonio Freeman had that before he got hurt/gained weight. Same with Jordy Nelson before his injury. They manage to get dbs legs crossed/stop-started wihtout having to downshift themselves and then the db is playing panicked catch up.

It's really something because the aspect is so subtle the viewer is left wondering WTF just happened

51 Re: Week 10 DVOA Ratings

Jordy and Thielen both ran 4.5 40s. Basically the same as guys like Antonio Brown and AJ Green. They’re not DeSean Jackson or Tedd Ginn, but they aren’t exactly working on a speed deficit compared to other elite receivers.

40 Re: Week 10 DVOA Ratings

Watching Diggs and Thielen makes me think of how many receivers get drafted in the 1st round, despite never demonstrating that they are really good at catching any ball they can get their hands on. To me, that's where it begins, and if a guy doesn't show that in college, you can't consider him for the 1st round, or maybe even the 2nd. The test can't end there, of course; I'm pretty sure that the Treadwell mistake happened because they fell in love with his catch radius, and ignored everything else. If guy is not a ball hawk in college, however, you should not be drafting him high, no matter how fast he is, or how impressive a physical specimen he is.

47 Re: Week 10 DVOA Ratings

Treadwell averaged less than 12 yards/catch in college, which alone should have been enough of a red flag to avoid him. Isn't that one of FO's standard pre-draft WR evaluations? Guys who are possession receivers in college have a lower success rate than "speed" guys, because it's just harder to get open in the pros against better competition?

49 Re: Week 10 DVOA Ratings

Yeah, like I said, I think they just fell in love with his catch radius, and ignored everything else. I think Spielman's been pretty decent (with some bad injury luck among his higher picks since he obtained complete draft authority after The Ponderous Fiasco), but that was his complete whiff in the 1st round. Even Patterson was an ok late 1st rounder, due to his extraordinary special teams value.

41 Re: Week 10 DVOA Ratings

1st fumble was at Pitt with minute to go down 17. Recovered by Pitt
2nd was against Det - 1.44 to go down 7, near mid field, Recovered by Det
3rd was against 14min to go in quarter, at own 35, up 4, fumbled out of bounds

I remember the first two, can't honestly remember the 3rd. The first was in garbage time, the 2nd was very costly. Can't honestly remember the 3rd, but it could obviously been costly.

16 Re: Week 10 DVOA Ratings

Browns almost out of last place on offense! Yay!

Their passing is still last by 20% - !! - despite signs of life from Kizer this past week. The #6 rushing DVOA ranking confirms the question everyone had earlier this year as to why Hue didn't lean on the run more.

68 Re: Week 10 DVOA Ratings

Is there any scenario short of massive improvement where Hue Jackson doesn't get fired?

I feel bad for him in a way because this roster gave him no chance, but you'd still expect them to be better than this right? Back to back potential 0-16 seasons is a herculean feat, even for the Browns. Or maybe not. The browns keep resetting expectations.

72 Re: Week 10 DVOA Ratings

I watched the Browns last week, and in parts of other games (vs Texans with Watson, and vs Vikings). My impression of them is that they are a team that has talent (I think the hoarding draft picks strategy is working somewhat), but they are very sloppy, and continuously self-immolate with unforced mistakes. To me, that falls on coaching. I was never impressed with Hue Jackson when he was with the Raiders (they should have easily won that division in 2011). I don't think he's going to be the head coach of the next good Browns team (whenever that is).

96 Re: Week 10 DVOA Ratings

Yeah of the coaches "hired" by Randy Lerner and Haslam, the best case career path has been back to being a respected coordinator (Crennel and Shurmur). It's hard to see any of Mangini, Chudzinski, or Pettine returning.

107 Re: Week 10 DVOA Ratings

Chud is the current offensive coordinator for Indy, and Mangini managed to climb back to defensive coordinator after the Browns, albeit for the dysfunctional Jim Tomsula 49ers. Mike Pettine is the only Browns head coach of the Randy Lerner-Jimmy Haslam era who hasn't been able to work his way back to a coordinator job. The last one before Pettine to not make it back to NFL coordinator was Butch Davis, an Al Lerner hire, who slunk back to college after he was fired during the 2004 season.

17 Re: Week 10 DVOA Ratings

Pats look like the clear class of the AFC, go figure, and if they get home-field, they'll be tough to beat (although it at least looks like the AFC will have five non-pushovers in the playoffs this year, so they won't get a Brock Osweiler in the divisional round second bye, barring a repeat of late-season injuries like what felled Derek Carr and Mariota last year). NFC looks wide-open, with legit strong teams atop every division, and more good teams than playoff spots. I've thought the NFC has been better since 2012, but I'd never count Tom Brady or Bill Belicheck out (sorta felt they stole both recent titles from superior NFC teams, but that's the story of their lives, and they probably shoulda won in 2007 and 2011, too)

23 Re: Week 10 DVOA Ratings

I expect the division winners to be the Pats, Steelers, Chiefs, and Jaguars. No clue about the wild card, but I don't see where it matters, as the drop-off is pretty steep after that. Who is the fifth non-pushover? Tennessee? Who needed OT to beat the Browns? They're on a 4-game winning streak against teams with a combined 10-27 record.

The Bills' resume has nosedived the past two weeks. I would believe in the Texans if they hadn't lost so many of their top players to injuries already.

27 Re: Week 10 DVOA Ratings

The Titans are the fifth decent team in my eyes- Mariota's been playing hurt, and, when he was healthy, they crushed the Jags and Seahawks in back-to-back weeks. They struggled against the Browns, but they won. Good teams have to pull ones out on off days from time to time, and they did. Guess we'll have a better idea how they stack up Thursday

70 Re: Week 10 DVOA Ratings

I'm not that impressed with the Titans. They played poorly against a mediocre Raiders team at home. They also nearly lost to the crappy Colts at home and have looked listless in several of their other games. Mariotta is starting to look a lot like a solid but unspectacular qb which is probably a disappointment given how high he was drafted.