DVOA Analysis

Football Outsiders' revolutionary metrics that break down every single play of the NFL season

Week 11 DVOA Ratings

by Aaron Schatz

Damn the torpedos, the conventional wisdom, and even other advanced metrics: DVOA is going to stick with the Kansas City Chiefs come hell or high water.

Last week, I noted that the No. 2 team had won the last five regular-season "DVOA Bowl" matchups pitting the top two teams in our stats against each other. The Los Angeles Rams made that six in a row with last night's win. But it was a close win. Kansas City's DVOA rating drops by less than one percentage point, and the Chiefs are still comfortably in first place.

In fact, the Chiefs finished with a higher DVOA than the Rams for the game, despite the loss. The Chiefs outgained the Rams 7.9 yards per play to 6.1 yards per play, and they had a 53 percent success rate compared to 45 percent for the Rams. That was enough to outweigh Patrick Mahomes' three interceptions, and give the Chiefs 47.4% DVOA for the game compared to 31.0% DVOA for the Rams. (Yes, that's higher than Kansas City's total DVOA for the season; the Chiefs went down insead of up overall because of changes in opponent adjustments on past games.)

It's worth noting that because of turnovers and some defensive stops late in the game, not to mention very strong opponent adjustments for playing each other, both Kansas City and the Rams ended up with better than average (i.e. negative) defensive DVOA in this game.

This was not the only game this week where the winning team had the lower DVOA rating. The first game of the week really stands out, as Green Bay lost to Seattle but earns 45.3% DVOA compared to -10.6% DVOA for the Seahawks. Green Bay outgained Seattle 7.5 yards per play to 5.5 yards per play; there were no interceptions and Seattle had both of the game's fumbles. Seattle did a much better job of grouping its successful plays into extended drives, as Green Bay had only one drive of seven plays while Seattle had five drives of at least seven plays. That big DVOA difference moves Green Bay up to No. 8 while Seattle drops from No. 8 to No. 12.

Another game where the winning team had the lower DVOA rating: Dallas 22, Atlanta 19. The Falcons had 6.4 yards per play with 56 percent success rate, while Dallas was at 5.1 yards per play with 48 percent success rate. Atlanta ended up with 17.8% DVOA while Dallas was at -10.2% DVOA. That lifted the Falcons from No. 22 to No. 18, while the Cowboys moved up just one spot from No. 23 to No. 22.

Cincinnati also ended up with slightly higher DVOA than Baltimore, and Jacksonville with slightly higher DVOA than Pittsburgh, but in those two cases the issue was that opponent adjustments were much different for each team.

There's one other game where the winning team had the lower DVOA rating, and after looking at a lot of splits from this game, I can't figure out why. Houston outgained Washington 5.5 yards per play to 3.8 yards per play, yet the final DVOA ratings were 17.4% for Washington and -9.3% for Houston. The best I can tell is that this comes from comparing gains to average in the down-and-distance, and Washington faced a lower average yards to go and therefore would need less yardage to have success. But overall I'm pretty stumped on this one. It moved Washington up from No. 19 to No. 16, while Houston dropped a spot to No. 14.

One game where the DVOA ratings clearly agreed with the score was New Orleans' blowout win over Philadelphia. In fact, I'm a little surprised the Saints' rating for this game is "only" 59.3%. The Saints have had their two best games of the year in the past two weeks, and while DVOA may not agree with other advanced metrics on how dominant the Saints have been for the entire season, DVOA definitely agrees that that the Saints are red hot.

Conventional wisdom says the Saints are the best team in the league. Our numbers put them behind not only the Chiefs and Rams but also (narrowly) behind the Chicago Bears. I explored the issues in last week's commentary, but another issue here is that the Saints' three weakest games were clearly the first three games of the season. The Saints were upset by Tampa Bay, then beat Cleveland by only three points and went to overtime with Atlanta. Since then, the Saints have been a far superior team, both on offense and on defense. The offense has gone from eighth in Weeks 1-3 to third in Weeks 4-11; the defense has gone from 31st in Weeks 1-3 to 13th in Weeks 4-11.

Here's a look at the top four teams, comparing Weeks 1-3 to Weeks 4-11. I'm throwing Chicago in here too, although as you can see, the Bears are structured in a very different way than the other top teams.

Weeks 1-3 Off DVOA Def DVOA ST DVOA Total DVOA
KC 49.3% 19.0% 17.0% 47.3%
LAR 27.5% -12.1% 1.0% 40.6%
NO 10.0% 18.5% -0.9% -9.4%
CHI -19.0% -26.8% 2.4% 10.2%

Weeks 4-11 Off DVOA Def DVOA ST DVOA Total DVOA
KC 36.1% 0.4% 5.4% 41.1%
LAR 32.9% 2.7% -0.2% 30.0%
NO 30.6% -1.6% 4.0% 36.1%
CHI 17.7% -18.9% -7.0% 29.5%

That's certainly a lot more like the team we all see on the field for New Orleans these last few weeks.

Let's finish up with an update on where Kansas City stands among the top teams in DVOA history. Again, last night's loss didn't cost them very much.

BEST OFFENSIVE DVOA
THROUGH 11 GAMES, 1986-2018
Year Team DVOA
2007 NE 49.8%
1998 DEN 41.5%
1993 SF 40.7%
2010 NE 40.4%
2004 IND 40.4%
2018 KC 39.5%
2002 KC 37.3%
1999 WAS 37.3%
1995 DAL 35.9%
2012 NE 35.2%
2011 GB 33.4%
2005 SD 33.2%

 

BEST TOTAL DVOA
THROUGH 11 GAMES, 1986-2018
Year Team DVOA
2007 NE 71.9%
1991 WAS 59.7%
1998 DEN 48.6%
2004 PIT 43.4%
1987* SF 43.4%
2018 KC 42.4%
2003 KC 42.1%
2002 TB 42.0%
2004 NE 41.7%
1994 DAL 40.2%
1995 DAL 40.2%
1999 STL 40.1%
*No strike games included.

* * * * *

Playoff odds are currently updated through Week 11. The FO Premium DVOA database and snap counts should be updated by later tonight. (In fact, it looks like they're being updated as I post this.)

* * * * *

These are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings through 11 weeks of 2018, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here.)

OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted to consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season. As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE.

WEIGHTED DVOA represents an attempt to figure out how a team is playing right now, as opposed to over the season as a whole, by making recent games more important than earlier games.

To save people some time, please use the following format for all complaints:

<team> is clearly ranked <too high/too low> because <reason unrelated to DVOA>. <subjective ranking system> is way better than this. <unrelated team-supporting or -denigrating comment, preferably with poor spelling and/or chat-acceptable spelling>

RK TEAM TOTAL
DVOA
LAST
WEEK
WEI.
DVOA
RANK W-L OFFENSE
DVOA
OFF.
RANK
DEFENSE
DVOA
DEF.
RANK
S.T.
DVOA
S.T.
RANK
1 KC 42.4% 1 42.1% 1 9-2 39.5% 1 5.7% 26 8.6% 1
2 LAR 32.1% 2 31.4% 2 10-1 31.3% 2 -0.6% 16 0.1% 16
3 CHI 22.4% 4 24.0% 4 7-3 5.7% 12 -20.9% 1 -4.2% 29
4 NO 21.8% 6 25.3% 3 9-1 24.1% 3 4.7% 24 2.5% 6
5 LAC 19.5% 3 20.0% 6 7-3 22.4% 4 -3.5% 11 -6.4% 32
6 PIT 19.2% 5 21.9% 5 7-2-1 16.8% 5 -3.3% 13 -1.0% 21
7 DEN 14.6% 9 16.4% 7 4-6 6.4% 11 -11.0% 4 -2.8% 26
8 GB 13.9% 10 15.3% 8 4-5-1 15.1% 6 -0.8% 15 -2.0% 25
9 BAL 12.6% 7 11.6% 10 5-5 4.1% 13 -8.5% 7 0.1% 17
10 NE 9.7% 11 11.7% 9 7-3 9.9% 9 0.1% 17 -0.1% 18
11 IND 9.0% 15 10.9% 11 5-5 6.8% 10 0.1% 18 2.4% 7
12 SEA 9.0% 8 8.6% 12 5-5 3.4% 14 -3.9% 10 1.7% 10
13 MIN 6.1% 14 7.4% 13 5-4-1 -2.6% 17 -10.4% 5 -1.8% 24
14 HOU 5.3% 13 5.9% 14 7-3 -10.2% 25 -13.3% 3 2.2% 8
15 CAR 5.1% 12 5.3% 15 6-4 10.1% 8 5.7% 25 0.7% 13
16 WAS -3.7% 19 -4.7% 17 6-4 -8.3% 23 -1.4% 14 3.1% 4
17 JAX -4.2% 17 -5.2% 18 3-7 -16.1% 28 -8.9% 6 2.9% 5
18 ATL -5.5% 22 -4.7% 16 4-6 14.3% 7 20.9% 32 1.1% 12
19 CIN -5.7% 21 -8.6% 20 5-5 0.0% 16 6.3% 27 0.6% 14
20 MIA -7.3% 20 -10.2% 21 5-5 -7.2% 21 4.6% 23 4.5% 3
21 NYG -9.1% 24 -7.6% 19 3-7 -2.7% 18 7.7% 28 1.4% 11
22 DAL -13.0% 23 -13.5% 24 5-5 -9.6% 24 1.9% 21 -1.5% 23
23 PHI -13.3% 18 -13.2% 23 4-6 -7.9% 22 4.2% 22 -1.3% 22
24 TEN -14.1% 16 -13.0% 22 5-5 -14.1% 26 1.8% 20 1.8% 9
25 CLE -15.5% 25 -15.6% 25 3-6-1 -18.1% 29 -7.8% 8 -5.2% 31
26 SF -18.3% 26 -18.4% 26 2-8 -14.2% 27 1.0% 19 -3.1% 27
27 NYJ -18.5% 27 -20.6% 27 3-7 -27.3% 30 -3.4% 12 5.4% 2
28 TB -23.4% 28 -26.2% 29 3-7 1.0% 15 20.2% 31 -4.2% 30
29 DET -24.7% 29 -22.5% 28 4-6 -5.8% 19 18.6% 30 -0.3% 20
30 OAK -27.6% 31 -29.1% 31 2-8 -6.1% 20 17.5% 29 -4.0% 28
31 BUF -28.5% 30 -26.5% 30 3-7 -43.2% 32 -14.8% 2 -0.1% 19
32 ARI -30.8% 32 -29.8% 32 2-8 -37.8% 31 -6.9% 9 0.2% 15
  • NON-ADJUSTED TOTAL DVOA does not include the adjustments for opponent strength or the adjustments for weather and altitude in special teams, and only penalizes offenses for lost fumbles rather than all fumbles.
  • ESTIMATED WINS uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles. Teams that have had their bye week are projected as if they had played one game per week.
  • PAST SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.
  • FUTURE SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents still left to play this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.
  • VARIANCE measures the statistical variance of the team's weekly DVOA performance. Teams are ranked from most consistent (#1, lowest variance) to least consistent (#32, highest variance).
RK TEAM TOTAL
DVOA
W-L NON-ADJ
TOT VOA
ESTIM.
WINS
RANK PAST
SCHED
RANK FUTURE
SCHED
RANK VAR. RANK
1 KC 42.4% 9-2 38.7% 10.5 1 3.2% 8 -2.8% 20 9.3% 11
2 LAR 32.1% 10-1 31.8% 9.8 2 5.4% 6 -12.9% 32 6.3% 3
3 CHI 22.4% 7-3 28.0% 7.9 3 -9.5% 31 0.0% 12 11.9% 16
4 NO 21.8% 9-1 24.0% 7.9 4 -2.5% 19 -2.1% 17 8.3% 8
5 LAC 19.5% 7-3 26.5% 7.1 6 -3.4% 22 8.7% 3 4.6% 1
6 PIT 19.2% 7-2-1 20.7% 7.1 7 0.3% 15 5.4% 5 16.4% 23
7 DEN 14.6% 4-6 12.9% 6.9 8 8.6% 2 -4.7% 23 15.1% 20
8 GB 13.9% 4-5-1 11.0% 7.2 5 -0.3% 16 -8.5% 28 13.9% 19
9 BAL 12.6% 5-5 8.0% 6.6 9 1.0% 13 -1.7% 16 17.3% 25
10 NE 9.7% 7-3 9.6% 6.2 11 1.4% 12 -7.9% 27 16.2% 22
11 IND 9.0% 5-5 17.6% 6.5 10 -10.1% 32 -7.1% 26 15.7% 21
12 SEA 9.0% 5-5 9.7% 6.2 13 3.8% 7 -2.3% 19 7.4% 5
13 MIN 6.1% 5-4-1 3.8% 6.2 12 -4.4% 25 3.8% 7 7.5% 6
14 HOU 5.3% 7-3 10.6% 6.2 14 -4.7% 26 -9.4% 30 6.1% 2
15 CAR 5.1% 6-4 13.7% 6.2 15 -6.6% 30 1.4% 9 19.9% 27
16 WAS -3.7% 6-4 0.6% 5.7 16 -2.7% 20 -11.2% 31 7.9% 7
17 JAX -4.2% 3-7 -4.0% 4.5 21 1.8% 10 -6.5% 25 9.2% 10
18 ATL -5.5% 4-6 -1.2% 4.8 18 -3.8% 24 -0.1% 13 9.1% 9
19 CIN -5.7% 5-5 -8.1% 5.3 17 8.7% 1 -0.9% 15 20.8% 28
20 MIA -7.3% 5-5 -6.0% 4.2 23 -5.8% 29 -6.1% 24 17.1% 24
21 NYG -9.1% 3-7 -6.1% 4.7 19 -4.9% 27 -2.1% 18 10.4% 13
22 DAL -13.0% 5-5 -3.7% 3.5 25 -5.5% 28 -3.1% 21 6.3% 4
23 PHI -13.3% 4-6 -9.2% 4.3 22 -2.7% 21 1.3% 10 12.7% 18
24 TEN -14.1% 5-5 -13.5% 4.6 20 -1.0% 18 -3.5% 22 22.4% 29
25 CLE -15.5% 3-6-1 -9.8% 3.7 24 6.0% 4 4.4% 6 10.6% 14
26 SF -18.3% 2-8 -20.0% 3.5 26 -0.9% 17 10.6% 2 11.0% 15
27 NYJ -18.5% 3-7 -18.7% 2.8 29 -3.5% 23 -0.7% 14 25.9% 31
28 TB -23.4% 3-7 -27.4% 2.5 30 1.6% 11 0.5% 11 9.7% 12
29 DET -24.7% 4-6 -21.5% 3.4 28 0.9% 14 2.5% 8 22.9% 30
30 OAK -27.6% 2-8 -29.7% 2.5 31 3.2% 9 20.9% 1 18.8% 26
31 BUF -28.5% 3-7 -38.0% 3.4 27 6.6% 3 -8.7% 29 31.6% 32
32 ARI -30.8% 2-8 -34.9% 2.4 32 5.9% 5 7.4% 4 12.4% 17

Comments

42 comments, Last at 22 Nov 2018, 7:08pm

1 Re: Week 11 DVOA Ratings

by milo // Nov 20, 2018 - 7:35pm

Last week we looked at offense, comparing apples to apples (KC & NO both vs. CIN).
Let's look this week at defense.

LAR allowed 51 points (2nd most of the week). NO allowed 7 points (fewest of the week). Yardage differences are just as stark
.
LAR had defense DVOA last week of 1.4%, this week -0.6%, a net improvement of 2.0%.
NO had defense DVOA last week of 6.70%, this week 4.70%, a net improvement of 2.0%.

This is comedy gold.

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3 Re: Week 11 DVOA Ratings

by Jose21crisis // Nov 20, 2018 - 7:48pm

I guess holding an overpowered offense to 51 points is just as good as holding a decent offense to 7 points. Except the Rams D didn't allow 51 points! They allowed 44 points (6 TDs, 5 XPs and a FG. Still terrible though) while scoring 14 of their own.

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5 Re: Week 11 DVOA Ratings

by milo // Nov 20, 2018 - 8:29pm

So the D in DVOA=37 points?

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7 Re: Week 11 DVOA Ratings

by Jose21crisis // Nov 20, 2018 - 8:51pm

37 Points + 5 Turnovers + 2 Defensive TDs. My gut still tells me that the Saints defense was more dominant, but DVOA thinks otherwise.

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15 Re: Week 11 DVOA Ratings

by tuluse // Nov 20, 2018 - 10:53pm

Also possible changes to opponent adjustments from previous weeks.

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6 Re: Week 11 DVOA Ratings

by Dan // Nov 20, 2018 - 8:49pm

KC offense scored 44 points on 15 drives, which is 2.93 points per drive, which is a lot but still less than their season average of 3.38 points per drive through week 10.

And if you credit the Rams defense for 14 pts, that gives the KC offense 30 net points on 15 drives, which is 2.00 net points per drive, which is right around league average. (The drive stats page has the NFL average as 2.10 offensive points per drive, and it looks there are about 0.12 defensive TDs per game which translates into just under 0.1 defensive points per drive.)

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17 Re: Week 11 DVOA Ratings

by Pen // Nov 21, 2018 - 2:30am

Points per drive is irrelevant. What' relevant is both teams allowed FIFTEEN drives! That's not defense and I fail to understand how either team can go up in rating after such a pathetic defensive performance. so all those teams that held LA to the 30's have magnificent gains in their ratings?

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20 Re: Week 11 DVOA Ratings

by Lebo // Nov 21, 2018 - 6:01am

More turnovers = more drives. So, perhaps FIFTEEN drives *is* defense after all?

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26 Re: Week 11 DVOA Ratings

by jgibson_hmc95 // Nov 21, 2018 - 12:36pm

Points per drive isn't irrelevant at all. That's essentially the base calculation you are making. Efficiency = # of points scored divided by # of possessions. Number of total drives can increase or decrease in a lot of ways - 3 and outs can be fast, so can long bomb TDs. Milking the clock can make fewer drives and the no huddle can speed it up and make more drives, but how fast/slow it is doesn't say anything about your efficiency.

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22 Re: Week 11 DVOA Ratings

by milo // Nov 21, 2018 - 9:31am

Ranking in games played week 11:

Points allowed: 1
Opp. passer rating: 1
Opp. total yards: 1
Interceptions: 2
Opp. yards/play: 3
Opp. pass yards: 3
Opp. Comp. Percent: 6
Opp,. rush yards: 6
Sacks: 6
D. Rush yards/play: 19
Opponent Offensive DVOA: 18

Defense Total DVOA: 9

Please explain how 8 teams played better defense.

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27 Re: Week 11 DVOA Ratings

by jgibson_hmc95 // Nov 21, 2018 - 12:37pm

Looks like the adjustment for playing only the 18th best team on offense is pretty harsh.

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29 Re: Week 11 DVOA Ratings

by milo // Nov 21, 2018 - 1:18pm

And the 8 teams ranked better played an average 16.5 ranked offense and median 18.5 ranked offense. Your explanation doesn't work.

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2 Re: Week 11 DVOA Ratings

by Jose21crisis // Nov 20, 2018 - 7:40pm

Damn, PIT's Future Schedule is tough. It's not going to beat OAK's Schedule, but compared to NE or LAR ... damn. I'm guess the JAX game took some Off. DVOA points too.

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4 Re: Week 11 DVOA Ratings

by Sophandros // Nov 20, 2018 - 8:21pm

The Falcons Fans' Nightmare Super Bowl Matchup (Saints vs Pats in Atlanta) has 3.3% odds.

It's one matchup I really want to see, almost more out of spite than because of the "QB matchup".

-------------
Sports talk radio and sports message boards are the killing fields of intellectual discourse.

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16 Re: Week 11 DVOA Ratings

by Aaron Brooks Good Twin // Nov 20, 2018 - 11:04pm

Atlanta might just dig up the roads around the stadium before that happens.

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8 Re: Week 11 DVOA Ratings

by ChrisLong // Nov 20, 2018 - 8:51pm

Packers offensive DVOA up to 6th and passing DVOA up to 8th. Fire McCarthy.

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13 Re: Week 11 DVOA Ratings

by dank067 // Nov 20, 2018 - 10:07pm

They're also 14th in points per drive and 18th in drive success rate. They have their issues.

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25 Re: Week 11 DVOA Ratings

by Steve in WI // Nov 21, 2018 - 12:20pm

I'm not sure how seriously you are trying to defend McCarthy here, but when I look at the context around the Packers that still makes me think he is a bad coach.

Let's start with the obvious: a healthy Aaron Rodgers is arguably the most talented QB in the league; I don't think it is possible to reasonably rank him outside of the top 3. You could argue that Rodgers has not been healthy this year, and that does change things, but as a rule when you spot a coach a HOF QB the expectations go up accordingly. I view the Packers being 6th in offensive DVOA as closer to the minimum acceptable level than something to laud them for.

Second, if the Packers are 6th in offensive DVOA (and 15th in defensive DVOA, for 8th by overall DVOA), yet they are a sub-.500 team, that means that there are other factors holding this team back besides the efficiency of the plays they've run. I don't think it's a stretch to point to McCarthy's decision making as one of those factors. The 8th best team by DVOA, who's played basically a league-average schedule thus far in terms of strength of opponent, should not be 4-5-1.

IMHO, I would believe there was *less* of an argument for firing McCarthy if this team was worse according to DVOA.

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31 Re: Week 11 DVOA Ratings

by Cythammer // Nov 21, 2018 - 4:58pm

A passing rating of 8th when your QB is Aaron Rodgers is not an argument in favor of a coach.

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39 Re: Week 11 DVOA Ratings

by ChrisLong // Nov 21, 2018 - 10:34pm

I’ve quoted statistics in other threads indicating how nuts it is, even with a HOF QB, to fire someone for a top-10 passing offense because you think it should be top-3 instead. Every coach who ever coached a HOF QB would be fired based on that standard within 3 years of being hired.

The logic that McCarthy is somehow dragging the team down because the record doesn’t match DVOA is misguided at best. For one, who do you think coached up the players and designed the schemes to get them that ranking in DVOA? Rodgers is good but no QB is an island. And more importantly, this is the coaching equivalent of QB winz. DVOA is more predictive of future winning than record. If you want to aim for coaches that you think will get more winz, fine, but the entire point of coming to this site is to look past superficial arguments like that and dig deeper.

Everyone is piling on McCarthy and he’ll probably get fired for it if they miss the playoffs. But I choose to look at the context, where McCarthy has had two talented but definitely very raw rookies as his #2 and #3 options at WR for most of the season (see the Seahawks game where they played man coverage with a single high basically all game because they knew the rookies couldn’t beat them), an injured Rodgers, and a ton of bad luck in many games this season. None of those are things that McCarthy could reasonably be blamed for, and even despite all of it the Packers are #8 in DVOA and #6 offensively.

Firing McCarthy for this season is a mistake, plain and simple.

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41 Re: Week 11 DVOA Ratings

by Cheesehead_Canuck // Nov 22, 2018 - 10:29am

You raise some good points. For what it's worth, I've been wanting to move on from MM for far longer than just this season. I think seeing how the team performs when Rodgers is not playing, especially compared to other coaches that have to work with backups, shows that he doesn't get the most out of this roster. I know some of that is on the former GM for leaning so heavily on Rodgers in recent years, but how often does a team get shut out TWICE at home in a season??

For comparison's sake, look at what Belichick has done when Brady hasn't started games. The team just keeps winning at nearly the same clip.

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9 Re: Week 11 DVOA Ratings

by poplar cove // Nov 20, 2018 - 9:11pm

How about the Eagles going from the SB winner to a bottom 10 team in DVOA the next season. Has to be one of the biggest drops ever from being a SB winner the previous year.

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10 Re: Week 11 DVOA Ratings

by Will Allen // Nov 20, 2018 - 10:00pm

Guess the "Doug Pederson is a genius" train has taken a detour.

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11 Re: Week 11 DVOA Ratings

by Will Allen // Nov 20, 2018 - 10:01pm

delete repeat

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18 Re: Week 11 DVOA Ratings

by Pen // Nov 21, 2018 - 2:32am

I see what you did there. No repeat for the Eagles.

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21 Re: Week 11 DVOA Ratings

by Aaron Brooks Good Twin // Nov 21, 2018 - 9:21am

Don't care still won title.

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23 Re: Week 11 DVOA Ratings

by Cogitus // Nov 21, 2018 - 10:16am

Frank Reich looking more and more like the genius behind that offense, given phillys struggles and Indy’s resurgence

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28 Re: Week 11 DVOA Ratings

by Aaron Brooks Good Twin // Nov 21, 2018 - 1:04pm

Philly's biggest issues appears to be their defense. It simply cannot force turnovers.

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37 Re: Week 11 DVOA Ratings

by Will Allen // Nov 21, 2018 - 6:29pm

I really wasn't trying to rip Pederson. For all I know, he's great. I was just making a comment about the paucity of information which we employ to make confident assertions of coaching quality, positive or negative.

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12 Re: Week 11 DVOA Ratings

by Cheesehead_Canuck // Nov 20, 2018 - 10:05pm

It’s baffling how maybe the 8th best team in the league has 4 wins in 10 games and a coach who is deservedly (in my mind) on the hot seat.

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14 Re: Week 11 DVOA Ratings

by justanothersteve // Nov 20, 2018 - 10:15pm

A history of undisciplined play, especially but not exclusively on special teams, will do that

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19 Re: Week 11 DVOA Ratings

by Yu Narukami // Nov 21, 2018 - 3:28am

According to my Opponent-adjusted-game-scripts (how muche the trail or lead during the game) they are 16th.
So they are almost always playing to catch up the opponent, or at least too much compared to good teams. Last year they ended up 28th (DVOA 17st). 2016 they were 4th (DVOA 7th) and be in the NFCCG.

Super bowl opponents were 1st and 3rd this time of the year in 2017 and 1st and 2nd in 206. So, beware of the Mighty Bears.

KC 6,69
CHI 5,86
NO 5,07
LARM 4,82
NWE 3,18
LACH 2,83
PIT 2,55
SEA 2,31
BAL 1,99
IND 1,21
DAL 0,78
WAS 0,58
HOU 0,44
ATL 0,41
DEN 0,21
GB 0,10
MIN -0,82
CAR -0,88
JAX -1,16
CIN -1,46
DET -1,46
TEN -1,81
PHI -1,82
SF -1,92
CLE -1,95
NYG -3,08
MIA -3,13
BUF -3,49
NYJ -3,62
OAK -3,99
TB -4,78
ARI -4,82

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24 Re: Week 11 DVOA Ratings

by E // Nov 21, 2018 - 12:01pm

So looking at either DVOA or weighted DVOA and adjusting a bit for the dropoff at QB from Alex Smith to Colt McCoy, the best team in the NFC East is ... my New York Football Giants?! Is that possible??

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30 Re: Week 11 DVOA Ratings

by kbukie // Nov 21, 2018 - 4:36pm

Short answer: The NFC East is very bad.

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36 Re: Week 11 DVOA Ratings

by Dales // Nov 21, 2018 - 6:24pm

Nearly as short answer: The Giants have actually underperformed their underperformance.

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32 Re: Week 11 DVOA Ratings

by Tamerlane // Nov 21, 2018 - 5:44pm

I'm confused -- is it unusual that the Seahawks' offense is ranked #14 overall Offense DVOA while its pass and run rankings are #9 and #6?

So both CHI and IND are worse at passing and worse at running and yet have better overall Offense DVOA? I haven't noticed things break this way before in the listings.

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34 Re: Week 11 DVOA Ratings

by tuluse // Nov 21, 2018 - 6:05pm

Simpson's Paradox and/or penalties strike again

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40 Re: Week 11 DVOA Ratings

by Vincent Verhei // Nov 21, 2018 - 11:06pm

Like most teams, Seattle's passing DVOA is better than its rushing DVOA. (There are only six exceptions, and they're not good teams.)

But Seattle is first in rushing attempts and last in passing attempts. So while they are executing good runs, other offenses are executing mediocre passes. And mediocre passes are more effective than good runs.

And yes, penalties (Seattle is in the top five in false starts) also have something to do with it.

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33 Re: Saints

by Dales // Nov 21, 2018 - 5:50pm

It wasn't just the first 3 games. The first half of their fourth game, against my Giants, they may not have been worse than their opponent, but it was close. The Giants really should have been winning the game at halftime.

And then the Saints became the Saints, and the Giants resumed being the Giants.

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35 By the way, Aaron

by Dales // Nov 21, 2018 - 6:12pm

Paras 3-4: just how many explanations of the counter-intuitive and the easily (and sometimes willfully) misconstrued things can be squeezed into fewer than 100 words? I fell for ya.

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38 Re: Week 11 DVOA Ratings

by Richie // Nov 21, 2018 - 7:52pm

I feel Rams-Saints and Rams-Chiefs were both coin flip games that either team could have won, but the home team actually won. It would be hard for me to confidently rate any of the 3 above the others.

The Rams may have one slight advantage going forward in that Aqib Talib is expected to return soon, and might help solve their biggest problem (the secondary).

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42 Re: Week 11 DVOA Ratings

by t.d. // Nov 22, 2018 - 7:08pm

Presumably Eric Berry returning ought to help KC, too

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