DVOA Analysis

Football Outsiders' revolutionary statistics that break down every single play of the NFL season

Week 18 DVOA Ratings

by Aaron Schatz

Once again, it is time for postseason DVOA ratings. As always, the following rules apply:

  • All 32 teams are ranked, whether they made the playoffs or not.
  • Teams are ranked in order of weighted DVOA, not total season DVOA. Since weighted DVOA is meant to lower the strength of older games, these ratings do not include Weeks 1-4, and Weeks 5-10 are somewhat discounted.
  • Only weighted DVOA is listed for offense, defense, and special teams. Total DVOA is also listed, but one game doesn't change much in a 17-game sample.
  • Teams which did not play in the wild-card round are treated as if they had a bye week. (That includes both the 20 non-playoff teams and the four teams with byes.)

The big surprise around here is probably that the gap between Philadelphia and Atlanta in both full-season DVOA and weighted DVOA is pretty large. Based on our numbers, at least, it seems that the public is overrating the importance of Nick Foles' poor Week 16 performance against Oakland. That was, after all, just one game. To make up the difference between Philadelphia and Atlanta in DVOA, you really have to believe the difference between Foles and Carson Wentz is about as big as the difference between Brett Hundley and Aaron Rodgers.

You will find DVOA matchup pages for the four divisional games on the FO Premium page. Snap counts should be updated with information on the wild-card round by this evening. (We're having some issues with getting playoff data, which we can hopefully solve.) And if you have a team in the Football Outsiders 2017 Playoff Fantasy Challenge, you can check out your team right here, scores should already be updated.

* * * * *

Once again this season, we have teamed up with EA Sports to bring Football Outsiders-branded player content to Madden 18. This week, we've got our last bit of content for the 2017 season, our December stars for Madden Ultimate Team on consoles. These players will go into packs around 11am on Thursday. Stats below are from Weeks 13-17, and players were chosen before this past weekend's games. Note that we were limited in choosing players from playoff teams because those players were chosen for Madden's NFL Playoffs promotion.

  • QB Jimmy Garoppolo, SF: Led NFL with 560 passing DYAR in December. 297 yards per game, 8.2 net yards per attempt.
  • HB Jamaal Williams, GB: Fourth among RB with 94 rushing DYAR in December (83 carries, 332 yards, 2 TD).
  • WR Doug Baldwin, SEA: Fifth among WR with 133 receiving DYAR in December (17-of-28, 293 yards, 4 TD).
  • LT Ronnie Stanley, BAL: In December, Ravens RB led NFL with 57 percent success rate and Ravens OL allowed a league-low 2.1 percent adjusted sack rate.
  • C Mike Pouncey, MIA: Miami RB led NFL with 63 percent success rate on runs up the middle in December (59 carries, 282 yards, 2 TD).
  • RE Vinny Curry, PHI: 18 hurries and an NFL-leading 10 QB knockdowns in December.
  • MLB Zach Cunningham, HOU: Tied for NFL lead with 13 defeats in December: 1.5 sacks, 6 other TFL, 5 PD or tackles to prevent third-down conversions.
  • CB Kyle Fuller, CHI: Second in NFL with 11 PD in December; half of his tackles after receptions prevented successful play by FO baselines.
  • CB Xavien Howard, MIA: 4 picks in December; Miami ranked third in DVOA against No. 1 wide receivers.
  • SS Bradley McDougald, SEA: Led all safeties with 9 defeats in December, second among safeties with 26 run tackles, which came only 3.5 average yards from LOS.
  • K Robbie Gould, SF: 18-of-18 on field goals in December with 6 field goals of 45 yards or more.
  • P Ryan Allen, NE: Led punters with 6.5 points of estimated field position on net punts in December; only 2 of 21 punts returned for more than 2 yards.

* * * * *

To save people some time, we remind everyone to put their angry troll hatred into the official zlionsfan angry troll hatred Mad Libs form:

<team> is clearly ranked <too high/too low> because <reason unrelated to DVOA>. <subjective ranking system> is way better than this. <unrelated team-supporting or -denigrating comment, preferably with poor spelling and/or chat-acceptable spelling>

If you are new to our website, you can read the explanation of how DVOA is figured here. As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE.

There are no adjustments here for sitting starters in Week 17, although we do adjust the ratings that we use in the playoff odds report.

Teams in yellow are still alive in the playoffs. Teams in gray lost this past weekend.

TEAM WEI.
DVOA
LAST
WEEK
W-L WEI OFF
DVOA
OFF.
RANK
WEI DEF
DVOA
DEF.
RANK
WEI S.T.
DVOA
S.T.
RANK
TOTAL
DVOA
RANK
1 NE 32.2% 1 13-3 27.4% 1 3.2% 22 8.1% 2 22.6% 6
2 NO 31.7% 2 12-5 23.2% 2 -3.8% 9 4.6% 9 30.2% 1
3 MIN 29.3% 4 13-3 12.8% 5 -17.7% 3 -1.1% 19 25.1% 4
4 PIT 27.9% 5 13-3 19.7% 3 -0.6% 14 7.7% 3 27.1% 3
5 LARM 27.2% 3 11-6 12.7% 6 -7.5% 7 7.0% 4 27.3% 2
6 BAL 24.7% 6 9-7 2.6% 15 -11.2% 5 10.8% 1 18.5% 7
7 PHI 22.9% 7 13-3 6.7% 11 -18.1% 1 -1.9% 21 23.5% 5
8 LACH 19.0% 8 9-7 14.4% 4 -9.2% 6 -4.6% 27 7.9% 11
9 CAR 13.8% 9 11-6 3.6% 13 -5.0% 8 5.2% 6 13.3% 9
10 JAC 13.1% 10 11-6 -3.9% 19 -15.9% 4 1.0% 17 13.5% 8
11 DAL 9.8% 11 9-7 4.0% 12 -0.3% 15 5.5% 5 5.4% 13
12 ATL 6.0% 14 11-6 8.3% 9 1.3% 18 -1.0% 18 3.5% 14
13 SF 3.7% 12 6-10 7.5% 10 5.5% 25 1.7% 14 -8.3% 20
14 SEA 2.2% 13 9-7 2.1% 16 -3.0% 11 -2.9% 23 3.2% 15
15 DET 0.8% 15 9-7 8.8% 8 11.4% 30 3.5% 11 5.6% 12
16 KC 0.3% 16 10-7 10.3% 7 14.9% 31 4.8% 7 10.0% 10
TEAM WEI.
DVOA
LAST
WEEK
W-L WEI OFF
DVOA
OFF.
RANK
WEI DEF
DVOA
DEF.
RANK
WEI S.T.
DVOA
S.T.
RANK
TOTAL
DVOA
RANK
17 OAK -5.0% 18 6-10 1.0% 17 3.0% 21 -3.0% 24 -6.6% 19
18 TEN -5.0% 19 10-7 -5.3% 21 1.3% 17 1.5% 15 -5.5% 18
19 ARI -5.4% 17 8-8 -20.8% 31 -18.0% 2 -2.6% 22 -11.2% 22
20 WAS -9.1% 20 7-9 -9.7% 23 -2.4% 12 -1.9% 20 -0.5% 16
21 CHI -9.9% 22 5-11 -10.5% 24 0.7% 16 1.3% 16 -15.9% 25
22 IND -10.6% 23 4-12 -10.8% 25 4.4% 24 4.6% 8 -22.4% 31
23 GB -10.6% 21 7-9 -4.8% 20 7.6% 26 1.8% 13 -3.3% 17
24 TB -13.7% 25 5-11 3.0% 14 9.6% 29 -7.1% 32 -11.9% 23
25 CIN -13.9% 24 7-9 -1.0% 18 8.8% 28 -4.1% 26 -12.5% 24
26 CLE -14.2% 29 0-16 -11.7% 26 -0.7% 13 -3.3% 25 -27.2% 32
27 NYJ -14.8% 26 5-11 -7.9% 22 1.4% 20 -5.5% 29 -17.3% 26
28 BUF -15.3% 28 9-8 -14.5% 29 4.0% 23 3.3% 12 -9.0% 21
29 MIA -16.3% 27 6-10 -12.2% 28 8.7% 27 4.5% 10 -19.8% 27
30 NYG -19.9% 30 3-13 -12.0% 27 1.4% 19 -6.5% 31 -22.2% 30
31 DEN -28.4% 31 5-11 -26.2% 32 -3.1% 10 -5.4% 28 -20.9% 29
32 HOU -41.2% 32 4-12 -18.8% 30 16.3% 32 -6.1% 30 -20.3% 28


Here are the one-game DVOA ratings for the first round of the playoffs. You'll notice that both of the Saturday upsets ended up with the losing team slightly ahead of the winning team in VOA (before opponent adjustments), while both of the Sunday games ended up further apart in VOA than the final score would otherwise suggest. We'll have more on the Falcons-Rams upset in a Tuesday Any Given Sunday column by Rivers McCown.


DVOA (with opponent adjustments)
TEAM TOT OFF DEF ST
TEN -6% 7% 16% 3%
KC 4% 33% 25% -3%
ATL 36% 17% -4% 14%
LARM 22% 16% -4% 2%
BUF 10% -27% -30% 7%
JAC 13% -28% -35% 5%
CAR 13% 29% 12% -5%
NO 25% 42% 23% 6%
VOA (no opponent adjustments)
TEAM TOT OFF DEF ST
TEN -8% 18% 30% 3%
KC 13% 39% 23% -3%
ATL 14% 13% 13% 14%
LARM 17% 19% 4% 2%
BUF -12% -45% -26% 7%
JAC 30% -24% -48% 5%
CAR -21% 16% 32% -5%
NO 21% 34% 19% 6%

Comments

43 comments, Last at 13 Jan 2018, 8:52pm

1 Re: Week 18 DVOA Ratings

by coremill // Jan 08, 2018 - 5:10pm

How did KC end up losing with a big VOA edge? Only Andy Reid could win the VOA battle by a large margin and still end up losing the game.

Also weird that the closest game by VOA was the least closest game by score.

Login or Register to post comments

12 Re: Week 18 DVOA Ratings

by ChrisS // Jan 09, 2018 - 12:56pm

I was surprised as well. But looking at the box score the Rams had more total yards in slightly fewer plays. Also there were the 2 special teams turnovers by the Rams resulting in short-field scores for the Falcons.

Login or Register to post comments

37 Re: Week 18 DVOA Ratings

by The Ninjalectual // Jan 11, 2018 - 10:20pm

Why is that surprising? KC did dominate the first half, remember. My casual observations suggested both teams would be somewhere around 0%, and sure enough that's exactly what happened.

Login or Register to post comments

2 Re: Week 18 DVOA Ratings

by brecherdc // Jan 08, 2018 - 5:55pm

I'm surprised to see Atlanta at just +6.0. Their worst stretch of games (losses to Buf/Mia/NE) was back in October, so they shouldn't have much effect on wDVOA. Since then they've had what looked to me to be strong performances against tough opponents. What is it that DVOA doesn't like?

Login or Register to post comments

5 Re: Week 18 DVOA Ratings

by MC2 // Jan 09, 2018 - 7:44am

Well, DVOA seems to think their offense is pretty good, but their defense is mediocre, at best. There's been a lot of discussion here about how DVOA isn't impressed by "bend but don't break" defenses like that of the Patriots, and the Falcons kind of fit that mold. They allowed the 8th fewest points in the league during the regular season, but they had very few "dominating" defensive games (for example, they had only one game allowing less than 10 points, and only two games allowing less than 250 yards). And they averaged exactly one takeaway per game.

Login or Register to post comments

3 Re: Week 18 DVOA Ratings

by junglejoe_lv // Jan 08, 2018 - 6:11pm

Why does Julio have Zero points in playoff challenge?

Login or Register to post comments

14 Re: Week 18 DVOA Ratings

by Aaron Schatz // Jan 09, 2018 - 1:07pm

Should be fixed now!

Login or Register to post comments

17 Re: Week 18 DVOA Ratings

by aces4me // Jan 09, 2018 - 2:03pm

Still zero on my team.

Login or Register to post comments

22 Re: Week 18 DVOA Ratings

by Aaron Schatz // Jan 09, 2018 - 6:40pm

Dave didn't get to it, but the fix is coming. We promise!

Login or Register to post comments

4 Re: Week 18 DVOA Ratings

by wiesengrund // Jan 09, 2018 - 6:28am

Based on our numbers, at least, it seems that the public is overrating the importance of Nick Foles' poor Week 16 performance against Oakland. That was, after all, just one game. To make up the difference between Philadelphia and Atlanta in DVOA, you really have to believe the difference between Foles and Carson Wentz is about as big as the difference between Brett Hundley and Aaron Rodgers.

I agree that a 9-point swing is huge for a guy like Wentz, but he was an MVP candidate before that, if not favorite. Rodgers to Hundley was 10 points. The Falcons just beat a completely healthy team that was better than the Eagles with Wentz on the road by 13 points, part of the swing is certainly that result as well.

Login or Register to post comments

6 Re: Week 18 DVOA Ratings

by Aaron Brooks Good Twin // Jan 09, 2018 - 11:13am

?

The Eagles beat the Rams head-to-head, on the road, in a game Foles finished.

Login or Register to post comments

7 Re: Week 18 DVOA Ratings

by nottom // Jan 09, 2018 - 11:20am

According to DVOA, the drop from Wentz to Foles this year is bigger than the drop from Rodgers to Hundley.

Obviously, small sample sizes and all but I don't think it is completely out of the question.

Login or Register to post comments

8 Re: Week 18 DVOA Ratings

by jmaron // Jan 09, 2018 - 12:13pm

I'm not so sure Wentz to Foles isn't just as big a drop as Rodgers to Hundley. Might well be a bigger drop off.

Foles in his last 3 years

Phil: Foles DVOA -28.5% vs 24.3% for Wentz (Foles 107 pass att, Wentz 470)
KC: Foles -9.9% vs 9.4% for A. Smith (Foles 59 pass att, Smith 518)
St Louis: Foles -27.9% for Keenum -1.1% (Foles 350 pass att, Keenum 131)

Rodgers 2017: 8.1% vs Hundley -27.9%

Foles was awful compared to Keenum and Smith, and that was 409 pass attempts. If you are more than 20% worse than Keenum and Smith, chances are you're going to be at least 30-40% worse than a star QB, which Wentz played like in 2017.

Login or Register to post comments

9 Re: Week 18 DVOA Ratings

by Aaron Brooks Good Twin // Jan 09, 2018 - 12:27pm

Keenum finished 1st in DVOA this year.

Login or Register to post comments

11 Re: Week 18 DVOA Ratings

by jmaron // Jan 09, 2018 - 12:41pm

yeah, and in the only game Bradford was healthy, the Vikings put up a 121.9% passing DVOA.

Watching Keenum every snap this year, he's had horse shoes up his butt, should have had about half dozen more picks. And, the number of plays that Theilen and Diggs have made on poor passes is very high as well.

He did out perform Goff by a ton last year (-19.4% vs -75.4%), so maybe he's better than I think he is, but my gut says he's somewhere between 25th to 40th best QB in the league.

Login or Register to post comments

13 Re: Week 18 DVOA Ratings

by jmaron // Jan 09, 2018 - 12:57pm

I also think Keenum is the 3rd best QB on the Vikings. My heart is hoping they will finally win, but I suspect they will lose with 2 better QBs on the bench.

I'm not blaming the coach - you keep winning and Keenum hasn't been horrendous. Bridgewater has been out for 2 years and Bradford has been out since week 1 really. So you go with Keenum.

I always felt that in 98 Brad Johnson was a better QB than Cunningham. So if they lose it will at least not be a new experience for me.

Login or Register to post comments

16 Re: Week 18 DVOA Ratings

by Will Allen // Jan 09, 2018 - 1:21pm

The more I think about it, the more convinced I am that Zimmer will be as ruthless as Saban was last night. If Keenum doesn't play decently in the 1st half, he'll get the hook.

Login or Register to post comments

15 Re: Week 18 DVOA Ratings

by Will Allen // Jan 09, 2018 - 1:17pm

I think you underrated him, although not by huge amount, in that he does do some things very well that allow him to take advantage of talented teammates. The ball gets out fast, which means his offensive line doesn't get overtaxed, especially when they run block well, which has mostly been the case. He has failed to find the optimum choice downfield on occasion, but because he has multiple good receivers to choose from, fast decisions don't always have to be optimum decisions to provide good results. When he is pressured, he is very effectively mobile, and keeps his eyes downfield very effectively. True, his throwing ability is decidedly mediocre or worse, and I think that this quality gets him in more trouble than anything. He has Aaron Rodgers' vision but, alas, he throws like Case Keenum. I'd place him solidly somewhere between 12-22, but Zimmer really ought to have the same mindset that Saban showed last night. A bad 1st half ought to result in bringing in a relief pitcher.

Also, if Bradford had been blessed with the health he had last year, while getting clobbered, I think he would have, behind this blocking and fully developed receiving corps, given Brady a run for the MVP, and then some.

Login or Register to post comments

18 Re: Week 18 DVOA Ratings

by jmaron // Jan 09, 2018 - 3:23pm

I think you are right about Zimmer - if Keenum sucks, he'll bench him. Wonder who is next up?Personally I'm glad I don't have to make any of those decisions.

I agree with much of what you say about Keenum, but I think he gets too much credit for dealing with the rush, he's made a lot of fine scrambles, but he also did a lot of running backwards away from the line of scrimmage early on this year, when he just need to move up or sideways a little. For many games he stopped doing that but the last 3 games I've seen that tendency creeping back.

As for my ranking vs yours - I think we would both have put him 40-70 to start the year, just like the entire NFL did. Figuring out who can play QB is hard.

Login or Register to post comments

19 Re: Week 18 DVOA Ratings

by Will Allen // Jan 09, 2018 - 3:30pm

Especially when the qb has nothing around him, because only the best look decent or better in that circumstance. That's how I became a Bradford fan during last year's casualty fiasco. He carried that offense to a mid tier DVOA finish, with everything held together with bandages.

Login or Register to post comments

20 Re: Week 18 DVOA Ratings

by jmaron // Jan 09, 2018 - 5:11pm

Bradford really was unfortunate in his NFL career. He's been saddled with some very poor surrounding parts for most his career. Finally gets a decent group around him in Minn and his oline goes through 5 or 6 tackles. Then he comes back plays a brilliant game and blows out his knee.

I'm with you, I think he would have been an MVP candidate this year if his knee stayed healthy. It seems about 3-5 times a game where Keenum misses a 15+ yard downfield throw that you know Bradford is making almost every time. Might be as accurate a passer overall as I've seen.

I haven't seen receivers so open downfield on this team since Moss was here.

Login or Register to post comments

21 Re: Week 18 DVOA Ratings

by Will Allen // Jan 09, 2018 - 5:24pm

At the same time, I've really come to admire Keenum this year. The man has throwing ability fit for the MAC Conference, but he squeezes the last drop out what he has in his right arm, even if his vision exceeds his ability at times. He competes like a HOF qb trapped in the typical body of a small college qb.

Login or Register to post comments

38 Re: Week 18 DVOA Ratings

by The Ninjalectual // Jan 11, 2018 - 10:25pm

I don't know if the world is ready for Sam Bradford: NFL MVP

Login or Register to post comments

41 Re: Week 18 DVOA Ratings

by Will Allen // Jan 12, 2018 - 1:18pm

It would have been interesting to see how people would react to Bradford tossing for about 4500 yards, 34 tds, and 5 ints, which is about where I think he would have ended up, if healthy.

Login or Register to post comments

10 Re: Week 18 DVOA Ratings

by jmaron // Jan 09, 2018 - 12:32pm

I went back for the other 3 years of Foles

2014 Phil: Foles 1.8%, Sanchez -1.4% (Foles 322 att, Sanchez 334)
2013 Phil: Foles 35.6%, Vick -6.9% (Foles 347 att, Vick 157)
2012 Phil: Foles -20.5%, Vick -14.4% (Foles 286 att, Vick 380)

So there is the one big year 2013, where he way out performed Mike Vick. But I suspect Vick was completely washed up by then, in 2014 and 2105 Vick put up -38.6% and -57.4%.

My take on 2013 was Foles in a great situation to put up good numbers, and was probably pretty lucky as well with only 2 ints.

Login or Register to post comments

39 Re: Week 18 DVOA Ratings

by The Ninjalectual // Jan 11, 2018 - 10:34pm

Good job including context

Login or Register to post comments

23 Re: Week 18 DVOA Ratings

by Hextall_27 // Jan 09, 2018 - 11:45pm

Stats are great, but you also need to use a bit of context and common sense.

Foles rookie season was the Eagles team that Reid got fired at 4-12
Vick got 10 of 10 games with McCoy and Jackson.
Foles got 1 of 6 games with Jackson.
Foles got 2 of 6 games with McCoy.

The Eagles were 3-1 in September when still mostly healthy. They went 1-11 the rest of the way. Vick was 0-6 after September and Foles was 1-5 after September. They scored 16.3 ppg in Vick starts and 19.5 ppg in Foles starts.

The 2015 St Louis Rams is the classic analysis blunder.
Foles started 11 games for a horrible team that announced they were moving.
8 of those games were against 2015 playoff teams.
He had horrific games in Green Bay and Cincy no doubt and he did make some bad throws that year.
Keenum played 5 games and faced 1 playoff team. He won 2 games throwing for 103 and 124 yards. He was mostly a game manager against mediocre teams.
Both QBs faced the Seahawks and the 49ers that year and Foles wiped the floor with Keenum Apples to Apples. Foles did not have Gurley vs Seattle and still beat them.
(What could be better comparison than on the same team against the same teams?)
They scored 61 in those 2 Foles starts and 39 in the 2 Keenum starts.

Gurley ran for 140 at 8.75 per carry against Detroit. Keenum threw for 124 yards at 5.64 per pass, but feel free to credit that win to Keenum.

Foles still had 3 different 100 rating starts on that bad Rams team. He has a 100+ rating in 16 total starts and another two 100+ rating long relief games. None of this counts because of the 2015 Rams and three 1-2 foot overthrows to Ertz on Christmas?

On teams that are not horrible, he is 24-8 as an NFL Starter. He has won 2 more games where he took over for an injured QB and won while having to play more than half the game.
When teams that are not awful count on him as a QB, they are 26-9.

He had a 100+ QB rating in a playoff game. He walked off the field with the lead and the Eagles got pushed backwards by the Saints for 5 minutes until they kicked a FG. That game included an all time classic drop by Riley Cooper.

Chip Kelly was 28-35 in the NFL.
He was 15-4 when relying on Foles and 13-31 with every other QB.
People who treat Foles as Brett Hundley really have no idea what they are talking about.

There are also people who insist that the 3rd highest QB rating season in NFL history was a FLUKE. Even in their distorted reality, Foles is 9-3 in his last 12 starts on teams that are not hot garbage.

He does not need to be Joe Montana 1989. He just needs to be Josh McCown 2017.

Login or Register to post comments

24 Re: Week 18 DVOA Ratings

by Will Allen // Jan 09, 2018 - 11:54pm

Would not DVOA differences between Keenum and Foles with the Rams encompass opponent strength? Is that not the point of DVOA?

Login or Register to post comments

25 Re: Week 18 DVOA Ratings

by Aaron Brooks Good Twin // Jan 10, 2018 - 10:54am

In should in theory. However, even the writers around here talk about needing to mentally account for difference in team strength, even when looking at DVOA. I'm thinking it accounts for some team strength, but the suspicion is that it undervalues it.

Login or Register to post comments

26 Re: Week 18 DVOA Ratings

by jmaron // Jan 10, 2018 - 1:44pm

"The 2015 St Louis Rams is the classic analysis blunder."

You do know what the D in DVOA represents right?

Sorry your post is fan stuff. I did it all the time with guys like Tavaris Jackson....Tarvaris sucked and so does Foles.

Phil is plenty good enough to overcome Foles, particularly with home field.

Login or Register to post comments

30 Re: Week 18 DVOA Ratings

by Hextall_27 // Jan 11, 2018 - 1:34am

Dak Prescott had 1 TD and 4 picks in his last 3 games. Should the Cowboys cut him because he sucks? We are in the business of defining a QB on his last 49 passes, why not Dak on his last 91? I wouldn't want anyone to be a fan and think Dak belonged in the NFL.

Before that game he had 3 TDs against the Giants. Lets throw that game out because its only the Giants. I would not want to ruin a good bashing!

Dak's really good year in 2016? That was probably just luck. We all know he sucks.
He was bad without Zeke!

Does it sound idiotic when you don't use Nick Foles as the example? Why does everyone have such dislike for this guy?

The Eagles handled Atlanta last year when Atlanta was better, Philly was worse, and their QB was a bad rookie after a hot start. In fact, Wentz went 4-7 in his last 11 with 9 TDs and 13 picks for a QB rating of 72.3. He also had some real stinker road games including 1 in Cincy... Its almost like the 2016 Eagles beat the 2016 Falcons with a version of 2015 Rams Nick Foles at QB.

Wentz lost the Seahawks game for the Eagles this year because even MVP level QBs have bad games.
- He missed a wide open Agholor.
- He targeted Agholor to the ground with an inaccurate pass when he was behind the defense.
- He fumbled the ball out of the end zone.
This is OK because all NFL QBs can have bad games.

For some reason Nick Foles has to suck to the point of Tavaris Jackson whenever he has a bad game. Sorry, a bad game + 12 passes in a pre-season level game.
4 completions, a drop, a receiver fell down, a penalty called back a screen, and yes a very bad decision interception. He was accurate on 7 of 12 passes, but 4 for 11 in a scrimmage makes him awful. That interception was his 2nd in his last 156 attempts in the last 2 years against 8 TDs. WHAT A JOKE!

Login or Register to post comments

40 Re: Week 18 DVOA Ratings

by The Ninjalectual // Jan 11, 2018 - 10:43pm

Huh? Foles' 2013 was an extreme outlier, and I didn't see anything in your comment to suggest otherwise. Also, it's been my opinion that Dak Prescott does kind of suck, with or without Elliot. Your straw man about the Cobs cutting him is junior high stuff though, that wouldn't fly on reddit let alone here.

I'll give you credit for using a good argument format (i.e. replace Foles with Prescott to demonstrate the absurdity of the opposing position), but your problem is that Prescott really isn't a good example, and a better example to prove your point wouldn't be a good parallel. Maybe it's time to reevaluate your position?

Login or Register to post comments

42 Re: Week 18 DVOA Ratings

by Hextall_27 // Jan 13, 2018 - 3:43am

Here is another angle:

Look at Case Keenum's actual performance for the Rams.
He lost a game 17-10 with a pick 6.
He lost a game 16-13 to the 5 win Ravens.
He won a game 23-17 with a defensive score and 98 yards rushing to his 103 passing.
He won a pair of games 9-6 and 9-3.
He won vs Detroit 21-14 with a defensive score and 201 rushing yards to his 124 passing.
He lost 19-16 in OT vs the 5 win 49ers
He lost to the 2-14 SF 49ers in a shutout.
Blaine Gabbert won 4 games as a SF 49er. 2 of them were vs. Keenum.

The Rams let him walk because he was hot garbage. If he was hot garbage with a decent DVOA, that did not help his team win winnable games. Foles was hot garbage too for them so they let him go after 2015. Foles was 4-7 but a decent replacement would be around 3 to 6 wins with that team against those opponents. Keenum was 7-7 but a decent replacement would have won 9 to 12 games with that schedule. (A rookie Goff under Jeff Fisher does not count as decent)

2017 is a fluke based on being on the superior team in most match-ups this year.
This kinda would be a thing except there is no such thing as a fluke in NFL football outside of maybe a game or 2 (maybe Timmy Smith, Matt Flynn types)

Here is some more Bad Data Exclusion Bullcrap about the Cowboys using the same premise as Dak Prescott. Aikman is just a product of Emmitt Smith and the rest of the talent on that '92-'96 roster.

Troy Aikman's 1992-1996 were flukes based on Dallas just being a fantastically talented roster. He was 56-19 in those years with Emmitt Smith carrying him. Emmitt rushed for 85 TDs in that span while Aikman threw for only 79 TDs.

When Emmitt held out for 2 games, Aikman went 0-2 with the Cowboys scoring 16 and 10 points. Those teams were so good that Jason Garrett went 2-0 with them.

Aikman was 38-42 the rest of his career. He was 38-31 if you exclude that awful 1989 team.
He had 86 TDs to 91 picks excluding those 5 years. (77 TDs to 73 picks also excluding 1989)

This is of course a bunch of crap because you don't get to exclude 3 Super Bowls in 5 years and the best 5 year period of a player's career, BUT you do have the great O-line and the best runner in the league (or 1A with Barry Sanders) and a far better defense and coach on those Cowboys than the present ones.

This illustrates the flaw in saying Dak sucks and the flaw in saying Foles sucks. You have to ignore a large set of data to pretend your premise is true.

Login or Register to post comments

27 Re: Week 18 DVOA Ratings

by hardynickerson56 // Jan 10, 2018 - 7:50pm

This has been my favourite website for years, and I love the analysis.
I am, however, absolutely stunned that you think there is a 63.1% chance that Philadelphia beats Atlanta with a quarterback that is so utterly dreadful that he struggled to even complete a basic forward pass in his last start. You just cannot possibly win in the playoffs when the discrepancy in quarterback play is so large. With the astronomically huge disparity between Foles and Ryan, I actually think the Eagles might not even win this game if they had their 1991 Defense.
If the football outsiders staff really believes the Eagles have a 63.1% chance of winning this game (and I don't believe they do) then they should be all rushing to Vegas to bet the Eagles at +136 odds.

Login or Register to post comments

28 Re: Week 18 DVOA Ratings

by Will Allen // Jan 10, 2018 - 9:10pm

It's not wise to confidently project a two game trend. Now, I don't think the Eagles have a 63% chance of winning, either, but I would not be shocked to see Foles play ok.

Login or Register to post comments

29 Re: Week 18 DVOA Ratings

by dmstorm22 // Jan 10, 2018 - 11:05pm

The game before that bad two game stretch, he lit up a Giants defense that grades out by DVOA as quite similar to the Falcons.

Login or Register to post comments

32 Re: Week 18 DVOA Ratings

by wiesengrund // Jan 11, 2018 - 8:18am

Its been well documented that the Falcons overall grade on the season does not represent the defense accurately that they have fielded in the last 2 months. Not sure we can say the same about the Giants.

Login or Register to post comments

34 Re: Week 18 DVOA Ratings

by dmstorm22 // Jan 11, 2018 - 9:53am

By Weighted DDVOA they were more or less equal as well.

Login or Register to post comments

31 Re: Week 18 DVOA Ratings

by Bright Blue Shorts // Jan 11, 2018 - 4:57am

"You just cannot possibly win in the playoffs when the discrepancy in quarterback play is so large."

What about league MVP Rich Gannon vs Brad Johnson in SB XXXVIII?

Login or Register to post comments

33 Re: Week 18 DVOA Ratings

by Anon Ymous // Jan 11, 2018 - 9:48am

Sanchez over Brady in 2010 comes to mind. And Mark didn't even have HFA.

Login or Register to post comments

35 Re: Week 18 DVOA Ratings

by dmstorm22 // Jan 11, 2018 - 9:56am

Or Tebow over Roethlisberger
Or Sanchez over Peyton and Brady back-to-back
Or Eli over Brady in the 1st super bowl
Or Grossman over Brees

There's quite a few lot of them over the years. Sure, most of the time the team with the bad QB had talent everywhere else, but that seems to fit the Foles-led Eagles pretty well.

Login or Register to post comments

36 Re: Week 18 DVOA Ratings

by Peregrine // Jan 11, 2018 - 11:42am

Falcons fan here. I think the Eagles will win. They have the #1 defense, according to DVOA. That kind of matters. Not surprised that FO forecasts a 63% of a Philly win.

Login or Register to post comments

43 Re: Week 18 DVOA Ratings

by hardynickerson56 // Jan 13, 2018 - 8:52pm

Wow. I can't believe how wrong I was and how right most of you were. I believed the Eagles had absolutely no chance whatsoever of winning this game. Then after seeing Nick Foles first pass I would have literally bet my house on Atlanta. Foles actually did an excellent job and the Eagles Defense was fantastic. What a great game and an incredible effort from the Eagles.

Login or Register to post comments