2019 DVOA Projections
by Aaron Schatz
Here are our DVOA projections for 2019, updated from the season forecasts in Football Outsiders Almanac 2019.
For those new to our website, you can find an explanation of DVOA here. Note that there's a big difference between DVOA and projected DVOA. The DVOA ratings that appear on the website during the season are based on the actual play-by-play that happens during the season, with no future projection whatsoever. The numbers here are a forecast, with offense, defense, and special teams DVOA all projected separately using a system based on looking at trends for teams over the past decade. Our system starts by considering the team's DVOA over the past three seasons and, on offense, a separate projection for the starting quarterback. Then we look at a number of other variables which suggest when a team will be better or worse than would otherwise be expected due to standard regression towards the mean. Factors include major offseason personnel changes, coaching experience, recent draft history, combined tenure on the offensive line, and certain players returning from injury (or, in the case of these preseason updates, certain players getting injured in the preseason).
The numbers we are presenting here are exactly what the projection system spit out. As we say every year: "A few of them will look strange to you. A few of them look strange to us." As always, the offensive projections come out in a wider range than defensive projections because offense performance tends to be easier to predict (and more consistent from year to year) than defensive performance. If you are looking for subjective projections, Thursday we will be running our usual staff predictions article where we all talk about where we think the numbers are wrong.
We've also done our first playoff odds report simulation based on these updated DVOA projections, and I've added the playoff odds and Super Bowl championship odds to the table below. At the start of a new season, our simulation is very conservative about the average number of wins and losses expected for each team. Obviously, the NFL is going to have teams that are 11-5 or better, and it is going to have teams that are 5-11 or worse. It may seem like our simulation predicts half the league to go 8-8, but we know that won't happen. We also use a "dynamic" playoff odds simulation. Each time it plays through the season, it adds 1.5% to the DVOA of every winner and subtracts 1.5% from the DVOA of every loser before moving on to the next week's games. This reflects the fact that DVOA projections are just estimates, and actual performance during the season gives us better knowledge of how good or bad teams really are.
Personnel changes aren't the only difference between this updated simulation and the one we did for Football Outsiders Almanac 2019. This is a smaller simulation which only uses one set of mean projected DVOA ratings, rather than using 1,000 different sets of ratings to represent that some teams have a wider range of probable performance quality than others. The smaller simulation is even more conservative than the one from the book, so average win projections will come out a little closer to 8-8.
The odds of getting the No. 1 pick listed below (and listed on the playoff odds report page) do not incorporate traded picks. Projected division champions are colored in light yellow and projected wild-card teams are colored in light purple.
| TEAM | TOTAL DVOA |
RK | MEAN WINS |
OFF. DVOA |
RK | DEF. DVOA |
RK | S.T. DVOA |
RK | SCHED | RK | NO. 1 PICK ODDS |
PLAY OFF ODDS |
S.B. WIN ODDS |
| NO | 21.2% | 1 | 10.2 | 17.7% | 1 | -3.9% | 9 | -0.4% | 18 | -0.6% | 21 | 0.2% | 73.2% | 13.5% |
| NE | 17.0% | 2 | 10.2 | 14.0% | 3 | 0.3% | 18 | 3.3% | 2 | -5.0% | 32 | 0.2% | 75.6% | 11.4% |
| LAC | 16.1% | 3 | 9.7 | 13.8% | 4 | -3.1% | 10 | -0.7% | 22 | -0.8% | 22 | 0.3% | 64.2% | 8.4% |
| KC | 15.1% | 4 | 9.3 | 15.5% | 2 | 2.7% | 22 | 2.2% | 3 | 1.8% | 8 | 0.3% | 58.7% | 7.2% |
| LAR | 14.6% | 5 | 9.4 | 10.2% | 5 | -2.6% | 12 | 1.8% | 4 | 0.5% | 15 | 0.4% | 61.0% | 7.8% |
| PIT | 13.6% | 6 | 9.5 | 9.0% | 7 | -5.2% | 5 | -0.7% | 21 | -1.7% | 27 | 0.3% | 62.1% | 7.1% |
| SEA | 8.1% | 7 | 8.6 | 9.2% | 6 | 0.0% | 17 | -1.1% | 26 | 1.4% | 9 | 0.9% | 45.6% | 3.9% |
| PHI | 7.8% | 8 | 9.2 | 4.0% | 13 | -4.5% | 7 | -0.8% | 23 | -3.8% | 30 | 0.7% | 56.7% | 5.0% |
| HOU | 6.6% | 9 | 8.5 | 0.9% | 15 | -6.0% | 3 | -0.3% | 16 | 2.0% | 6 | 1.0% | 45.2% | 3.4% |
| DAL | 5.1% | 10 | 8.7 | 0.6% | 16 | -4.2% | 8 | 0.4% | 11 | -1.7% | 26 | 0.9% | 48.2% | 3.6% |
| BAL | 4.9% | 11 | 8.5 | -4.8% | 21 | -5.0% | 6 | 4.6% | 1 | 0.1% | 19 | 1.1% | 42.9% | 3.0% |
| TEN | 4.4% | 12 | 8.4 | 4.6% | 11 | 0.7% | 19 | 0.5% | 8 | 0.2% | 18 | 1.3% | 44.4% | 2.9% |
| GB | 2.8% | 13 | 8.2 | 9.0% | 8 | 4.7% | 26 | -1.6% | 32 | 0.5% | 14 | 1.4% | 39.4% | 2.5% |
| CHI | 2.4% | 14 | 8.0 | -1.7% | 18 | -5.3% | 4 | -1.2% | 29 | 2.9% | 3 | 1.6% | 35.6% | 2.2% |
| DET | 2.0% | 15 | 8.3 | 3.2% | 14 | 1.7% | 21 | 0.4% | 9 | -1.0% | 24 | 1.5% | 41.1% | 2.4% |
| CAR | 1.2% | 16 | 8.1 | 4.5% | 12 | 3.7% | 24 | 0.5% | 7 | 0.5% | 16 | 1.8% | 36.0% | 2.0% |
| MIN | 1.0% | 17 | 8.0 | -3.9% | 19 | -6.1% | 2 | -1.2% | 30 | 1.3% | 10 | 1.7% | 35.4% | 2.1% |
| ATL | -0.5% | 18 | 7.7 | 7.2% | 9 | 6.5% | 29 | -1.2% | 28 | 2.2% | 5 | 2.2% | 30.9% | 1.6% |
| CLE | -0.7% | 19 | 8.0 | 4.8% | 10 | 4.8% | 27 | -0.7% | 20 | -0.9% | 23 | 1.8% | 34.9% | 1.7% |
| SF | -2.0% | 20 | 7.7 | -4.4% | 20 | -2.7% | 11 | -0.3% | 17 | 1.2% | 12 | 2.5% | 30.7% | 1.4% |
| JAX | -3.4% | 21 | 7.6 | -10.0% | 27 | -6.6% | 1 | 0.0% | 12 | 0.8% | 13 | 2.9% | 30.4% | 1.2% |
| NYJ | -5.1% | 22 | 7.9 | -5.2% | 23 | 0.8% | 20 | 0.8% | 5 | -4.2% | 31 | 2.6% | 34.2% | 1.2% |
| OAK | -5.9% | 23 | 7.2 | 0.5% | 17 | 5.7% | 28 | -0.6% | 19 | 2.0% | 7 | 3.9% | 22.4% | 0.8% |
| IND | -7.1% | 24 | 7.2 | -8.9% | 26 | -1.0% | 14 | 0.8% | 6 | 1.3% | 11 | 3.9% | 23.3% | 0.7% |
| BUF | -10.6% | 25 | 7.3 | -10.0% | 28 | -0.6% | 16 | -1.2% | 27 | -3.4% | 28 | 4.2% | 24.7% | 0.6% |
| NYG | -10.7% | 26 | 7.2 | -8.1% | 25 | 3.0% | 23 | 0.4% | 10 | -3.6% | 29 | 4.8% | 23.5% | 0.6% |
| DEN | -11.2% | 27 | 6.6 | -10.9% | 29 | -1.0% | 15 | -1.4% | 31 | 3.0% | 1 | 6.2% | 15.3% | 0.3% |
| CIN | -11.9% | 28 | 6.8 | -4.8% | 22 | 6.9% | 31 | -0.3% | 14 | 0.3% | 17 | 5.6% | 17.5% | 0.5% |
| ARI | -12.7% | 29 | 6.5 | -14.9% | 31 | -2.2% | 13 | 0.0% | 13 | 2.9% | 2 | 6.5% | 15.3% | 0.4% |
| TB | -13.7% | 30 | 6.3 | -6.0% | 24 | 6.7% | 30 | -1.0% | 25 | 2.7% | 4 | 7.2% | 13.0% | 0.3% |
| WAS | -17.6% | 31 | 6.4 | -12.8% | 30 | 3.9% | 25 | -0.8% | 24 | -1.1% | 25 | 8.3% | 14.5% | 0.3% |
| MIA | -30.6% | 32 | 4.9 | -22.1% | 32 | 8.3% | 32 | -0.3% | 15 | 0.1% | 20 | 22.1% | 4.3% | 0.0% |
You'll notice the biggest change between the book and this projection, which is that last yellow line. The Green Bay Packers fell a little bit in our projections based on a number of personnel adjustments that all changed small variables slightly, and that means that we end up with the Detroit Lions as our NFC North favorites. I've been trying to explain all preseason that Detroit is better than conventional wisdom but I did not expect to have to wave the flag of the Lions as division favorites and I'm not exactly happy about it. It seems like going a little bit too far, but that's what the numbers spat out in what is by far the closest division in the NFL according to our projections. All four NFC North teams have projected DVOA between 1.0% and 2.8%, and all four teams have mean projected wins between 8.0 and 8.3. Detroit is not as good as Chicago or Green Bay, but it's close, and they have the easiest schedule in the division. The Lions aren't prohibitive favorites, but nuance doesn't exactly work well on the Internet.
We've also had a change in our projected winner of the AFC South. The Indianapolis Colts have dropped into last place in the projections after the retirement of Andrew Luck. We thought we were going to have the Tennessee Titans as our projected division champions but Houston jumped ahead of the Titans at the last minute. Those trades this weekend may have hamstrung the future process of building the team, but we do think that the addition of Tunsil and Stills outweighs the loss of Clowney and that puts the Texans very narrowly ahead of the Titans as the favorites in the AFC South.
Besides the Colts and Packers, other teams that fell a bit since the DVOA projections in FOA 2019 are the Los Angeles Chargers, who were our AFC favorites in the book but have fallen behind New England due to injuries, and the Miami Dolphins, who come out even worse now than they did a couple months ago. I'll have to go through all the old books to see when's the last time we had a preseason mean projection below 5.0 wins but it was probably a long time ago.
You may notice that our mean projections have 10 of 12 teams returning to the playoffs. The only non-repeat playoff teams we have in our top 12 are Pittsburgh and Detroit. (Green Bay, if it was NFC North favorite, would also be a non-repeat playoff team.) Obviously, there will be more change in the playoff structure than that. Historically, about half the playoff teams have turned over each year, although that total has been lower in recent years. Still, forecasting most teams to stay consistent ends up being more accurate than blindly casting about to try to figure out which will be the new playoff teams.
Comments
66 comments, Last at 10 Sep 2019, 3:36am
#1 by Will Allen // Sep 04, 2019 - 3:30pm
With mean wins ranging from 8 to 8.3 in the NFC North, it's not crazy to predict that whichever team's placekicker chokes the least will win the division. It'll probably be the team with the best injury luck, of course.
#4 by theslothook // Sep 04, 2019 - 3:47pm
The NFC East in 2007 had three teams make the playoffs and their last place finisher was the pesky eagles who had major injuries. That year also had the Cowboys finishing as the top seed in the NFC along with the eventual superbowl champs.
#3 by theslothook // Sep 04, 2019 - 3:46pm
Idk if they are under radar, but the Broncos are my sleeper bad team makes the playoffs pick this year. I think Vic Fangio superchargers a talented(but imo mismanaged by last year's staff) defense into top five status while the offense grounds and pounds its way to a bunch 20-17 win games - something Flacco will certainly be no stranger to. Every year, there's an engine that could team that manages to squeeze just enough offense plus some good defense and special teams to a 10 win season. There is some long term pain from this however. Jon Elway will likely see a successful season as validation for his team building efforts. He would be wrong. This team is still largely built on the same chassis from the sb team, just older. The offense is still bad and projects to be worse without significant changes and the defense will eventually lose its last stalwarts.
#8 by Swilson1472 // Sep 04, 2019 - 4:16pm
I do certainly think that's in the realm of possibility. In their 2019 FO Almanac, they point out that extremely rangy LBs are usually a staple of the best Vic Fangio defenses. Think Patrick Willis and the army of extremely talented 49ers LBs as well as Roquan Smith and former Bronco Danny Trevathan last year. That will be put to the test this year as the defense appears stacked at EDGE and secondary, but with fairly poor LBs. If LB really is the engine that makes these defenses go, then it'll once again be a good, not great unit. Also working against them was that the Broncos were the #5 DVOA defense a year ago with a slightly positive offensive DVOA. This narrative would be easier to believe if the Broncos had finished with -5% offensive DVOA and Flacco could get them back to average. Flacco and Keenum are probably similar in overall ability, but different qualitatively. Flacco doesn't deal with pass rush nearly as well as Keenum, so the upgrade at OL and Mike Munchak coming in better do better than previous Broncos O-lines which I do think will happen, just whether or not it's enough.
#21 by merlinofchaos // Sep 04, 2019 - 7:49pm
Well, if we're relying on good defense and special teams for this prediction, it's a long shot. Broncos' special teams unit was atrocious in the preseason. And I'm used to Broncos generally fielding sub-par special teams units, and this one is bad even by comparison.
And a bad special teams unit turns close wins into not very close losses, unfortunately.
#33 by Tracy // Sep 04, 2019 - 10:06pm
This team is still largely built on the same chassis from the sb team, just older.
There are 6 players on the Broncos roster who were part of that Super Bowl team, only 4 of whom contributed meaningful snaps in the Super Bowl. They have 39 players on the roster with less than 4 accrued seasons, including the following players expected to start or contribute a substantial number of snaps this year: Garret Bolles, Bradley Chubb, Noah Fant, Royce Freeman, Adam Gotsis, Phillip Lindsay, Connor McGovern, Dalton Risner, Courtland Sutton, Justin Simmons, Josey Jewell.
#35 by herewegobrowni… // Sep 05, 2019 - 12:05am
"Chassis" is a pretty open-ended word, that you don't see much in this context, so I guess I can see how it could still work.
Certainly Von/CHJr are pretty significant components of a chassis, and Derek Wolfe's/Corey Nelson's/Todd Davis' contributions on the defense aren't trivial, to say nothing of McManus kicking. In fact, Wolfe has nearly the same tenure as Von/CH, starting years before that Super Bowl.
#42 by Mountain Time … // Sep 05, 2019 - 9:11am
I agree that the Broncos look better than these projections are saying. However, there are two important counterpoints:
- Tough schedule/tough division
- Joe Flacco is their starting QB, and Lock is on IR until week 8 at the earliest.
#2 is the big one for me. As a Broncos fan, I am mentally preparing for a frustrating year. Is there any reason to watch the offense before Lock gets in the lineup?
#59 by merlinofchaos // Sep 05, 2019 - 5:22pm
There is some hope that Munchak is the amazing OL coach that we've been sold and he can turn a potentially weak line into something solid. And the combination of Lindsay + Freeman are exciting.
Flacco behind a solid OL that gives him time to pick his targets actually IS kind of dangerous, with the following caveat: Sutton and Hamilton have to take pretty big steps in their sophomore years.
So there is some hope, but there's so many ifs in there that it's hard to have any real faith it'll happen, because if any one of those things doesn't happen, it's going to be a rough season.
#22 by t.d. // Sep 04, 2019 - 7:54pm
sorta think somebody steps up this year (maybe even both jets and bills). they don't always spot franchise qbs coming (recent examples mahomes (who they projected to go 7-9) and goff; pretty sure they were early on pegging wentz, though)
#6 by Swilson1472 // Sep 04, 2019 - 4:01pm
I can't understand why the model still likes the Chargers more than the Chiefs. The Chargers have finished behind the Chiefs in DVOA for the last years. The table above has the Chiefs with 15.5% offensive DVOA which is lower than the Chiefs finished with in 2017 (15.9%) with Alex Smith at QB and no Sammy Watkins with everything else more or less intact. The Chargers are already out Derwin James and possibly Russell Okung with Rivers showing diminishing arm strength. Can someone shed some light on this?
#9 by Swilson1472 // Sep 04, 2019 - 4:23pm
I think Lynn is a bottom 10 coach in the league and that no one has done less with more than he has. His in-game "aggressiveness index" is bottom 5 of league where almost all the coaches are way too conservative. The Chargers also are very inconsistent on a game to game basis. They won 4/5 games decided by 4 points or less last year which history says is probably not sustainable.
#66 by Randall Turner // Sep 10, 2019 - 3:36am
Lynn's a push imo. Our problem is lack of talent up the middle on both sides of the ball. (OL, DT/LB) Chiefs will walk away with the division, and I think you're correct that they're underrated too. But the Chargers definitely getting too much respect from the model here.
i know late but we're fans of respective teams and nobody else will read this. :)
#11 by Cythammer // Sep 04, 2019 - 4:26pm
Alex Smith may have been the QB, but the Chiefs were fantastic on offense that year. Smith was being talked about as a strong MVP candidate for at least the first half of the season. I imagine simple regression might explain why this year's Chiefs offense is supposed to perform worse than that unit.
#17 by Jon H // Sep 04, 2019 - 5:44pm
Thats exactly it. They explain that in the almanac. Its that they expect the offense to regress big time. The defense should get better but it wasn't as bad as many act like. Their offense was one of the best ever, their defense wasn't even that close to be the worse this season. Simple laws of regression say we should expect them to get worse.
#52 by Jon H // Sep 05, 2019 - 12:22pm
Never said otherwise, but I'm not really quite sure what you're getting at. These are the projections that they got for the Chiefs. They'd readily admit they're not perfect projections. Are you saying that they should alter their 2019 projections because they've been wrong in the past?
#16 by Jon H // Sep 04, 2019 - 5:25pm
They addressed this in their almanac. The Chiefs offense has way more room to regress than the defense has to progress. The Chargers were a more well rounded team. They also showed the Chiefs were lucky with injuries and extremely lucky with dropped interceptions.
#10 by Cythammer // Sep 04, 2019 - 4:24pm
Hmm, the top three teams are all squads with old QBs at the helm. Especially old for the top two teams. I don't think it would be terribly surprising for any of those teams to be much worse than projections. Time is undefeated and the drop off in performance, when it comes, can be severe.
EDIT: Even more so since the strength of each of those teams is the offense, not the defense.
#49 by Bowl Game Anomaly // Sep 05, 2019 - 11:15am
"As always, the offensive projections come out in a wider range than defensive projections because offense performance tends to be easier to predict (and more consistent from year to year) than defensive performance."
#20 by mehllageman56 // Sep 04, 2019 - 7:43pm
a little bit; Darnold has looked like the real deal in preseason, even without Bell and a number of the starting offensive linemen, so I'm thinking their offensive DVOA will be a lot better than -5.3. But the defensive numbers are skewed the other way; the Jets really have no cornerbacks, unless you believe Trumaine Johnson will have a comeback year, when he's already hurt his hamstring. That DVOA is going to be a lot worse than less than 1. I fully expect a re-enactment of the 51-45 O'Brien-Marino classic most weeks, which translates to a record and a DVOA close to what they predict, but how the Jets get there will be very different. I might add that Mahommes threw off the KC DVOA prediction last year as well.
#53 by Lost Ti-Cats Fan // Sep 05, 2019 - 1:10pm
What you think of the Jets this year has much to do with what you think about Gase.
On talent alone, I like the Jets for a wildcard team (I differ from DVOA here). Two games against the 'Fins and a pair against a Bills team I'm much lower on than most people set them up well for double digit wins.
But, I didn't think much of the work Gase did in Miami or his general approach since getting to NY, and I'm inclined to see them end up more like an 8- or 9- win team falling just short of the playoffs (add in Gase, and I'm now onside with the DVOA rating!)
#62 by mehllageman56 // Sep 05, 2019 - 6:25pm
but I don't think his offense is going to be bad for Darnold the way FO thought so in the Almanac. At least he'll be better than what they had last year, when Bowles hired somebody who hadn't coached in years, because he wanted to run the ball more. I would have preferred John Morton had stayed the last couple of years, since he was able to keep the team competitive (trust me, it wasn't the defense) in 2017 when the Jets were projected to be the worst in the league. The Raiders have him now, maybe that will work out for them, maybe not.
My issue with Gase is more long term, and how he handles personalities, more than Xs and Os. Also don't trust the guy; his last press conference made him look like a paranoid drug dealer. Belichick is always uncomfortable with the press, but he looks head-on at them, not ducking his head the way Gase keeps doing. My main hope is that Douglas will fix the team and win any front office battle with Gase if he needs to.
#45 by Mountain Time … // Sep 05, 2019 - 9:21am
Football Outsiders Message Board Curse.
Remember the year the Falcons were a bad team but were 6-2 on the back of insane fumble luck, and we were brigaded by angry Falcons fans here? FO was just about the only place that didn't think the Falcons were good that year. Their luck then reversed and they went 2-6 to finish the season.
#32 by jimbohead // Sep 04, 2019 - 9:33pm
0.7 win difference where these projections have an R^2 historically of (please correct me if I'm wrong) a little less than 0.5. I wouldn't worry too much.
Don't misunderstand, I'm definitely not throwing shade at FO, I'm just recognizing that predicting season-long NFL wins is super hard, especially plus or minus less than one.
#34 by JoeyHarringtonsPiano // Sep 04, 2019 - 11:57pm
You guys are the only publication I've read that is even remotely bullish on the Lions. Everyone else is predicting a top-10 draft position, and suggesting that Patricia is neck and neck with Gruden the younger as coaches mostly likely to be fired mid-season. If your projections are on target, you could rightly crow about it. I believe you were the only publication that saw the Rams' resurgence coming in 2017. Unfortunately Matt Patricia is not Sean McVeigh.
#38 by SuperDackMorph // Sep 05, 2019 - 1:04am
Thanks for the annual to the point DVOA analysis Schatz. The NFC North does seem close on eye test. Last year the Bears edged out with the return of dominant defense and good enough offense. Detroit's additions on defense would seem like they could get over the hump and return to the 11-5; top 10 defensive team 5 years ago. But like any new toy, the effectiveness of it's operation will be dependent on how well it runs as a unit and how it's managed from Paul Pasqualoni. (If you haven't heard his interview with the press a couple days ago I recommend you check that out. His comments should make their way into your 'This weeks quotes' publication)
How did DVOA get to the pretty decent 13th projected Arizona defense? Patrick Peterson is out for 4 weeks with suspension and their 2nd CB is out with an injury. They have so much inexperience in the secondary. I think they will give up 30 points a game and force the offense to play catch up every game, giving their offense an inefficient higher ranking while still losing by double digits.
#39 by Cheesehead_Canuck // Sep 05, 2019 - 8:48am
I understand your forecasts have changed since the Almanac, but it's still surprising to see the Packers go from your clear favourites in the Almanac entry to outright missing the playoffs in this forecast. With how tight the NFCN will be from top to bottom, I suppose it wouldn't take much of an adjustment for that to happen though.
#47 by Will Allen // Sep 05, 2019 - 10:25am
The NFC North is a 4 way tie, and reasonably seen as such. Something random and/or something which can't be reasonably forecasted with confidence will determine the final ordering. Obviously, bad injury luck could result in any of these teams finishing with 5 or 6 wins. Unusually good or bad fumble luck could result in a 4 game swing in wins and losses. A good or bad year in field goal kicking could do the same There are other performance factors which can't be forecasted which may have large effect. Will a 3rd year qb in Chicago make a huge forward stride? Will a new coach and superstar qb in Green Bay mesh really well? Will new coaching and new players for the o-line in Minnesota result in good blocking, which has rarely been seen there for a decade? Will the players in Detroit get better in their 2nd year with their coach? A yes to any of those questions might result in 10-12 wins, unless they are all answered yes, which might send all four teams back to 8-8 Purgatory.
A four way tie at 8-8, with each team splitting their divisional games with each opponent, would be great!
#65 by Jetspete // Sep 08, 2019 - 6:52am
I guess I would have to take odds with the jets special teams. I don't see how they can lose Roberts and Myers (replacing them with guys they found off the streets after final cuts) and only fall to 5th. Arent those technically 3 positions important to ST rankings?