DVOA Analysis

Here's the latest run-through of the VOA ratings, which compare every single play in the NFL to league average based on situation. The gap between Kansas City and the rest of the NFL actually widens despite the Chiefs' loss, Carolina brings back memories of the 1998 Arizona Cardinals, and the AFC North struggles to produce an actual winning team.

Aaron breaks down every team in the NFC, complete with DVOA ratings split into pass and rush, special teams ratings split five ways, and projections of every team's final win-loss record. All the stats are ranked 1-32 to help you figure out where your team tops the league and where it comes up short. Even more commentary than the AFC article, including a section on Carolina and Tampa Bay that is longer than the odds on Arizona making the playoffs.

Out of last week's top ten teams, five lost and two more were on bye. So you can imagine that the VOA ratings have gone through some changes. Kansas City's still in the top spot, and they are pulling away from the rest of the NFL. Plus, comments on St. Louis-Baltimore and Miami-Tennessee, and a detailed discussion of what statistics can and cannot tell you.

Aaron breaks down every team in the AFC, complete with DVOA ratings split into pass and rush, special teams ratings split five ways, and projections of every team's final win-loss record. All the stats are ranked 1-32 to help you figure out where your team tops the league and where it comes up short. Plus, obnoxious commentary for the math-o-phobic, featuring pop culture references of Milleresque randomness.

KC stays at #1. Topics for this week's commentary include the Patriots' intentional safety, the turnstile that is Wade Smith, the true purpose of ESPN NFL Matchup, and why an unexplained change at ESPN.com will limit the information you get from this website. No, that has nothing to do with TMQ.

Kansas City tops our ratings, just like they top everyone else's. Tampa puts the Dallas offense in its place. Buffalo messes everything up. Plus, who will be the infamous Second Half Team? All the VOA stats that break down the season play by play, with the usual commentary for the math-o-phobic.

Tampa Bay tumbles, replaced in the top spot overall by Minnesota -- and in the top spot for defense by Dallas. Dallas? Aaron discusses this Tuna Surprise in his comments, which also explore the topsy-turvy AFC East, the Carolina bandwagon crash, and the latest on the Gregg Easterbrook situation. Plus, a new stat shows which teams are the most consistent.

Aaron has poured through the statistics to find interesting tidbits about each team in 2003. Many of the things we noticed in our pre-season IN FOCUS articles are still true, while other teams have new tendencies this season. Learn the shocking fact about Carolina's offense, some bad news for Denver fans, and why Steve Spurrier still doesn't know where to run. Sorted by game to help you better enjoy the coming weekend.

This week, we finally add special teams into the VOA formula. Find out what it means for Kansas City, Carolina, and the mystery team that moved from #22 to #12 on this week's rankings. Oh, and Tampa Bay is back at #1.

OK, so how the heck are the Jets ranked so dang high this week? Aaron searches for an explanation and finds out why the Jets are the Miami Heat of football.