DVOA Analysis

Football Outsiders' revolutionary metrics that break down every single play of the NFL season

DVOA Ratings

Week 5 DVOA Ratings
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Week 5 DVOA Ratings

Sometimes it can be hard to tell who is good or bad in the NFL... except in our DVOA ratings, where the same two teams from 2012 and 2013 are back on top in 2014.

140 comments, Last at 10 Oct 2014, 8:19pm by intel_chris
Week 4 DVOA Ratings
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Week 4 DVOA Ratings

Five different teams from last year's DVOA top eight rank in the bottom half of the league through four weeks of 2014. What can we learn from other teams with similar starts in the past?

137 comments, Last at 03 Oct 2014, 11:54pm by Perfundle
Week 3 DVOA Ratings
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Week 3 DVOA Ratings

For only the second time in history, the Bengals are No. 1 in our ratings. But compared to other No. 1 teams after three weeks, there's a real lack of dominance.

105 comments, Last at 30 Sep 2014, 1:10pm by Mr Shush
Week 2 DVOA Ratings
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Week 2 DVOA Ratings

Stomping the Jags leaves Washington No. 2 behind only Denver. But what can we really learn from one big win early in the season, before we are applying opponent adjustments?

76 comments, Last at 14 Oct 2014, 11:14am by CharlieAdam14
Week 1 DVOA Ratings
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Week 1 DVOA Ratings

We always say not to jump to conclusions about a team's true quality after a Week 1 loss. But the meaning of one loss to a team's playoff chances are another issue entirely.

112 comments, Last at 23 Sep 2014, 2:09pm by
2014 DVOA Projections
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2014 DVOA Projections

Our annual DVOA projections are all about probabilities. Thanks in part to their less competitive conference, Denver has the highest probability of walking away from this season as Super Bowl XLIX champion.

76 comments, Last at 08 Sep 2014, 6:04pm by BengalFaninIN
Let Me Check My Schedule
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Let Me Check My Schedule

Kenneth Arthur looks at how DVOA and strength of schedule play with each other, especially in regards to Super Bowl possibilities.

25 comments, Last at 01 Sep 2014, 4:52pm by kicorse
Historical DVOA Estimates
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Historical DVOA Estimates

Estimating the DVOA of years we don't have play-by-play data for reveals some surprising conclusions. Is it possible the 1985 Bears are not even among the top three teams of all-time?

143 comments, Last at 21 Jun 2016, 7:29am by eagle97a

Week 20 DVOA Ratings

Fun with chalk: The top two teams in DVOA make the Super Bowl for the first time since 2002 and only the third time since 1989.

124 comments, Last at 28 Apr 2018, 1:24am by nescafe1518
Week 19 DVOA Ratings
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Week 19 DVOA Ratings

The big surprise of Divisional weekend is that there were no surprises, so why should DVOA be any different? Our final four rank 1, 2, 3, and 5 in weighted DVOA.

91 comments, Last at 16 Sep 2014, 10:24am by mrqeus