Stat of the Day: Quarterbacks Getting Hit

For as long as I've been reading FO, they have been real good about taking suggestions from readers.

I read a lot of sports statistics sites, and frankly I'm sick of people complaining that the stats are incomplete or don't include something or implying that the entire stat is invalid because it's producing an obviously incorrect result for a particular player or team. If there are reasons why the stat is producing misleading results for someone, by all means post it and let those of us who are not as familiar with that player/team know. But hopefully, we all know that statistics do not paint a complete picture and every statistic is just shining some light and rigor on one particular aspect of the game, and we don't need to have this debate in EVERY FUCKING THREAD here and on BP and PFR and Advanced NFL stats, etc. etc. etc.

The NFC playoffs had several key no calls for what looked to me like blatant roughing the passer penalties:

1) OT Arz sacks Rodgers - forget the facemask - the Arz player hit Rodgers in the head before the face mask - that should have been 1st down GB - instead Arz wins the game.

2) New Orleans got away with a hit to head on Warner on a key sack early in the game against Arz as well. The score was 21-7 Saints, but instead of 1st and 10 at the Arz 42 it was 2nd and 18 at the Arz 27. That is a huge play.

3) Favre hit low on an int - late 3rd quarter 21-21 - Vikings would have had a 1st down at the NO 19.

The penalty has become a huge play in many instances because it often changes or should have changed a dramatic play (sack, sack-fumble, ints) because bad things tend to happen to the offence when the QB is under duress.

You could well be right (in the general case, can't remember the specific play you mention), which is why I'd like to see a deeper analysis.

On some further consideration, if I am right, I wonder if mobile QBs draw flags less often than pocket QBs. It did seem like a lot of Rodgers rough but no flag hits were times when he escaped the pocket. Maybe refs subconsciously are less likely to flag QB hits on QBs who act more like RBs?

No, they actually seem pretty equal.

Gets hit a lot:

Player DVOA rank
9-D.Garrard 23th
8-M.Schaub 6th
13-K.Warner 13th
12-T.Brady 2nd
9-T.Romo 7th
17-J.Campbell 24th
4-B.Favre 4th
6-J.Cutler 30th
8-M.Hasselbeck 34th
12-A.Rodgers 9th
Average rank 15.2

Doesn't Get Hit:

Player DVOA Rank
8-K.Orton 17th
18-P.Manning 5th
5-D.McNabb 20th
7-B.Roethlisberger 8th
10-V.Young 14th
9-D.Brees 3rd
7-C.Henne 21st
6-M.Sanchez 36th
17-P.Rivers 1st
9-C.Palmer 19th
Average rank 14.4

Just as many good and bad/mediocre QBs sprinkled into each group. There's basically no obvious correlation between DVOA and QB hit rate.

Totally hit reply to the wrong comment. Ignore this post.

Except the Steelers line actually was fine this year, whereas the Cowboys was terrible at pass blocking (albeit superb at run blocking). The guys the Cowboys are paying a lot (Flozell, Davis, Gurode) are all great run blockers so I'd say even if your premise were true (and I don't think it is personally) they are still getting fairly good value out of them.

Except that Romo has developed persistent back problems that will end his career early if he doesn't start getting better pass blocking soon. Also, I think you overestimate his deficiencies as a passer; he had a rating of 97.1 and only threw 9 interceptions this year. Any quarterback improves with better protection.

I think Roethlisberger is good enough at breaking tackles and shaking guys off that he doesn't go down much. If you had a stat for "touched by a defensive player in any way at some point in the play", I imagine Ben would be very high on the list. It seems like every third pass play, a guy has a clean shot at Ben and he pump-fakes then just kind of spins away from the guy or ducks under him or stiff-arms him or something then throws it.

I suspect that it is a perception effect. You need to have a sack column and a total column to expose a few things. What we are measuring here is the number of sacks that the QB has averted by reading the situation and getting rid of the ball, either to target - Which is part QB, part reciever - or to ground, which is all the QB. If you really want to consider a QB's 'ditch the ball' skill, think of each hit and sack as a 'break in protection', and each hit as a 'sack averted'

Consider:


...........Hits..Sacks.%Averted
T.Brady.....54.....16.....77
P.Manning...29.....10.....74
T.Romo......53.....34.....61
HWSNBN......51.....34.....60
A.Rodgers...46.....50.....48
B.Roeth.....31.....50.....38


So, while the Pittsburgh offensive line is giving Ben the same level of protection as Romo and Farve are getting, when he does get touched, he's going down still holding the ball. But, he's got that habit of throwing the ball to a receiver with a half-ton plus of D line and linebackers hanging off him. So, without the success rate for the situation, we can't really say if it's a worth while strategy for him.

Last year these charts agreed with you since he was among the most hit and least sacked. This year he was least sacked, but also not hit much. Part of that was replacing 2nd rounder Tony Ugoh at LT with 6th rounder Charlie Johnson, 2nd rounder Mike Pollack with Arena League OG Kyle DeVan, and the return of Ryan Lilja who was out all last year. A lot of it IS Manning, but they tweaked the line just enough to give him the extra half second or so he needs. And for them, that's loads more important than run blocking.

Based on these charts for 2008 and 2009, and my own faulty eyes, it seems that the Colts OL went from below average last year to above average this year. That's not to say they're actually good, but with Manning, above-average seems to be good enough. Of course, Joe "Hit In The Backfield Again" Addai might have an issue with that statement. (New nickname suggestion: HIBA) His fumble last week was basically every run for the last 2.5 seasons distilled to a five-second sequence.

One wonders what happens next year when Howard Mudd ACTUALLY retires as OL coach, instead of just faux retiring to lock in benefits, and then coming back for 2009 as a consultant.... I guess they burn that bridge when they come to it.

Thanks for the information, this is exactly why it is important to consider sacks and hits together. It shows that Brees and Manning are good at getting rid of the ball and also setting up their protects (and have good offensive lines) since rushers just aren't getting to them much either for hits or sacks. Meanwhile it shows that brady is helping his o-line out by getting rid of the ball just in time, and Ben and Mcnabb hold onto the ball a bit too long, so if you get there you can probably get the sack. Interesting data that mostly agrees with conventional wisdom.

Cue some writer saying O-line play (esp. pass blocking) is SUPREMELY important to be able to get to the SB.
I will say this--this post (#39) shows how well the Saints' O-line is--the Saints running games was first in (rushing) DVOA as well.

It also might be that a 'hit' doesn't count unless he's knocked down after the ball is released

Yeah, that's it. When he's pressured, and gets hit, but stays on his feet, that's a hurry. I would bet that he was one of the most hurried QBs this year from the few games I watched.

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