We've all seen the Next Gen Stats as part of NFL broadcasts -- player speed, distance traveled, etc. -- but this story on NFL.com is the first time I've seen anything really useful done with the data. For each pass thrown in the NFL, they've calculated the likelihood of a completion based on six factors:
Air distance, the actual distance between the passer and receiver, both horizontally and vertically.
Target separation, the distance between the receiver and the nearest defender in coverage.
Interesting article where ESPN Chalk asked the Westgate how much each starting quarterback would be worth to the line if he were injured. Aaron Rodgers is the most, at 10 points. Some of the interesting results: I'm surprised how low the Saints are here, as much as I love Teddy Bridgewater. I just figure Drew Brees is worth more than just 2 points. I also wonder what they would have said about the difference between Ryan Fitzpatrick and Jameis Winston if they had been asked two weeks ago instead of right now.
1 comment, Last at 22 Sep 2018, 7:11am by Raiderfan
Our weekly update on injuries around the league, as the Jaguars and Giants lose key linemen for the year and the Eagles take yet another blow to their receiving corps. Also featuring way more kickers than usual.
5 comments, Last at 19 Sep 2018, 10:57am by Noah Arkadia
Well, did not see this coming. The Cleveland Browns have announced they will release Josh Gordon, the uber-talented, uber-troubled wide receiver. (UPDATE: Actually, they traded him to New England for a fifth-round pick.)
For a lot of Football Outsiders, this won't come as a big surprise, but NFL coaches tend to run way too often, even in long-yardage situations where passing would seem to be a much better strategy. Josh Hermsmeyer at FiveThirtyEight shows all the data and finds only one team that passed more than it ran on second-and-long: your reigning Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles.