Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

23 Jul 2012

Jets Acquire Jeff Otah for Conditional Pick

Just a great, great trade by the New York Jets here. Otah has barely been healthy the last two years, has played only four games. If he is healthy, he's a massive upgrade on Wayne Hunter, and gives the Jets clearly the best offensive line in the league. If he's not healthy, I assume the conditional draft pick is very low, and they've only paid about a million bucks because Otah's still on his rookie contract.

Posted by: Aaron Schatz on 23 Jul 2012

14 comments, Last at 27 Jul 2012, 3:39pm by Led


by Dean :: Mon, 07/23/2012 - 5:36pm

I suppose it depends on the pick. If it's a high pick, it's not such a good deal. Even if it's a late round pick, it can still be a bad deal if the guy can't play anymore. Can't make the club in the tub.

Anything on day 3, though, and it's a good risk by the Jets.

For Carolina, you're getting something in return for a guy on whom you've given up. Any return is a good return.

by tuluse :: Mon, 07/23/2012 - 5:50pm

If he can't play anymore Jets give up nothing right?

by DavidL :: Mon, 07/23/2012 - 6:01pm

Depends on the deal. “Conditional pick” just means that it changes depending on future events – what those events are, how much it changes and whether there's an escape hatch in case he never recovers are all a matter of what the teams worked out. They could have gotten a first for him for all we know.

by Exy (not verified) :: Mon, 07/23/2012 - 10:03pm

Jake Steinberg of SNY has reported that it's a 7th rounder that could be a 6th. Sounds more than worth the risk to me.

by BroncosGuyAgain :: Mon, 07/23/2012 - 7:16pm

A bit too early to grade it a "great, great" trade. There is the slightest chance that, between the two parties, the Jets have the lesser knowledge of Otah's health. I'm not ripping the trade. It might turn out to be the steal of the century. But let's have Otah, say, participate in one real practice before assigning the deal a grade of "great, great".

(This ignores the "I assume" part of the analysis, because groundless assumptions are always an unassailable bedrock of analysis).

Go Jets!

by Independent George :: Tue, 07/24/2012 - 2:51pm

Maybe it's more accurate to call it a great gamble instead?

by chemical burn :: Tue, 07/24/2012 - 3:03pm

A smart bet?

by Ryan D. :: Tue, 07/24/2012 - 8:33am

As a Panthers fan, I'm extremely disappointed by this trade. I was really hoping to see Otah get healthy and play again, as he was leaps and bounds better than the turnstyle they put out at RT last season.

by Graham (not verified) :: Tue, 07/24/2012 - 9:54am

BroncosGuy is right on with his comment. Otah has the potential to be a beast. However, Rivera, on at least 2 occasions, has called him out for being lazy with rehab. On his first day out at OTA's he was benched due to knee swelling and went to Dr. Andrews. My guess is that Otah plays 4 games and is hurt again, done for good. Which sucks, because he could be a great player.

Also, as Panthers fan, I like this deal as it is essentially a 3 way deal with Oakland, since we gave them a 7th round pick for Murphy. Which given his production in his first 2 years with horrible QB talent, is a potential steal. In this 3-way deal, I'd rather be getting Murphy then Otah, but again I'm biased.

Only time will tell for sure.

by DEW (not verified) :: Tue, 07/24/2012 - 8:31pm

I've always liked Murphy since that one play in his rookie year where Zach Miller took a pass for a long touchdown run, and Murphy not only blocked one guy, but got up, ran down the field, passed Miller, and pancaked a second defender on the same play. I have no idea if getting out of Oakland will help him as a WR, but that's the kind of effort I love to see.

by Jetspete :: Tue, 07/24/2012 - 2:51pm

it took 7 months, but they finally addressed their biggest need with a few days to spare before camp. Thank freaking god.

by Dean :: Thu, 07/26/2012 - 8:28am

Suddenly this looks like much ado about nothing.

by LionInAZ :: Thu, 07/26/2012 - 11:28pm

Indeed. I wonder what the Lions could get from the Jets for Gosder Cherilus...

by Led :: Fri, 07/27/2012 - 3:39pm

There's some scuttlebut that the Jets failed Otah in order to get a better look at him before finalizing the trade. He has until sometime next week to pass the physical and may end up on the Jets after all.