The NFL owners today officially voted to move the line of scrimmage for extra points back to the 15, making the XP now equivalent to a 33-yard field goal. The line of scrimmage remains the 2 for the 2-point conversion. In addition, returning a blocked kick, fumble, or interception on a point-after try will now be worth two points for the defense.
I hate this rule change so much. Why do we need to make the point-after try complicated? If you want to increase excitement, just move the line of scrimmage to the 1 to encourage going for 2-point conversions.
I don't have time right now to run a whole bunch of math on what the rule change means. Just 33-yard field goals would be a small sample size, but looking quickly at the last two seasons, field goals from 31-35 yards are hit roughly 91 percent of the time. The 2-point conversion is converted roughly half the time, so the numbers suggest that the smart head coaches will begin to go for 2 after nearly every touchdown except in certain late-game situations (such as when the touchdown itself ties the game). That quick math doesn't incorporate the possibility of a "two-point return," but I'm guessing that a pick-six from the 2 isn't frequent enough to make up the difference between an XP try being worth roughly 0.91 points and a 2-point try being worth roughly 0.99 points.