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Chicago Fire Sale: Jared Allen to CAR, Jon Bostic to NE

The Panthers have found a veteran pass-rusher, something they've been looking for since Greg Hardy was put on the exempt list early last season. Jared Allen never fit into the 3-4 in Chicago and has been sent to Carolina for a conditional sixth-round draft pick. Allen still has something in the tank; we counted him last year with 27.5 hurries to go with 5.5 sacks and 15 other QB knockdowns.

UPDATE: Looks like this is a full fire sale for the team that goes into Week 4 No. 32 in DVOA. Jon Bostic, their leading tackler in 2014, was traded to New England for a sixth-round pick in 2016.

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Comments

49 comments, Last at 01 Oct 2015, 8:34pm

17 Re: Jared Allen Traded to Carolina

Wow, didn't even manage to dump the salary. That pretty much just makes it a tanking maneuver. I guess that makes sense; since about this time last year it's been clear that they're going to start trying just as soon as they have a QB not named Cutler.

2 Re: Jared Allen Traded to Carolina

I though Allen was pretty darned productive last year, for a guy playing with pneumonia on a very bad team. I'd like to see him play through next year, if he so desires, and get to 150 sacks.

5 Re: Jared Allen Traded to Carolina

ESPN says: "I'm told Jared Allen is 1st of a few trades Bears will make, they're looking to unload players that don't fit their scheme from prior regime"

Forte seems like the obvious player to trade away if they're looking to tank/rebuild.

30 Re: Jared Allen Traded to Carolina

Mayo has an injury history the past two years but he would be a great pickup for another team. Problem in New England is that the Pats also have Collins and Hightower, who are a touch younger and considerably cheaper.

I would love to see the Pats retain Mayo somehow but at this point, he's a good candidate to see his salary moved off the books.

6 Re: Jared Allen Traded to Carolina

I'd think you should get at least a conditional 4th if picking up all that salary.

Also, why not make the trade in the offseason?

10 Re: Chicago Fire Sale: Jared Allen to CAR, Jon Bostic to NE

Allen was traded because he looked like he's done, a shadow of the great player he was. Still being paid by the Bears though.

Bostic should entertain teams playing the Pats for a couple of years, unless Darth Deflatious can spring some magic on him.

33 Re: Chicago Fire Sale: Jared Allen to CAR, Jon Bostic to NE

He led the team in tackles, which doesn't necessarily mean he's playing well, but that would seem to be a good return on a 2nd round pick. It seems like the Patriots are usually in a 4-2 nickel, so I would have to agree that he's not going to get many defensive snaps unless there's an injury to DH or JC. However, if there is, I like Bostic in the regular defense over guys like Freeny or Watson.

36 Re: Chicago Fire Sale: Jared Allen to CAR, Jon Bostic to NE

It's also a matter of market. I don't think the Bears could have gotten anything for Allen during the preseason, but with Charles Johnson going on IR recall, he becomes a more valuable commodity to the Panthers.

The part that I question is that this sixth round pick (which might well be pretty late in the round) will have to offer more value than anyone the Bears cut to keep Allen (specifically thinking of David Bass). Otherwise, they probably would have been better off treating Allen as a sunk cost and cutting him in camp. I guess I think a young player in hand is worth more than a sixth rounder in the bush.

38 Re: Chicago Fire Sale: Jared Allen to CAR, Jon Bostic to NE

I feel like they kept him around in case they were competitive this year, and once it was clear that they're looking at a high draft pick they figured that getting anything at all for him was better than keeping a poor scheme fit who's past his prime. Might as well lose games with a young guy who might develop instead of losing games with an old guy who's going to be gone by the time your team isn't terrible.

40 Re: Chicago Fire Sale: Jared Allen to CAR, Jon Bostic to NE

I mostly agree, but when you take into account the factors other than talent that play into roster composition, including salaries, guarantees, practice-squad eligibility, and positional needs (the Bears have a rough secondary right now, but you still need 8ish DBs on your roster), it means you're not always keeping the most valuable players. So you might actually be looking at say, the 48th player (who still might not dress). But given how terrible teams tend to be at predicting talent in the draft, I really wonder if a team would be better off keeping a young bottom-of-the-roster player on the team (and learning Fangio/Gase's system) for a year as opposed to hoping you can find someone better with a 6th round pick.

Regardless, even if there is much of a difference in value, it's not going to be enough to keep the Bears from being a very bad team this year. It's more of a theoretical question, I guess: do GMs overestimate their ability to find talent in the draft, and underestimate their coaches' ability to improve existing talent? I'm not sure, but I wonder if that might be the case here.

16 Re: Chicago Fire Sale: Jared Allen to CAR, Jon Bostic to NE

If you are going to have a fire sale shouldn't you wait until closer to the trade deadline when teams have greater need and might pay higher prices. Granted there is more chance of injury to the talent your trying to move, but are the Bears going to really rebuild with 6th round picks?

24 Re: Chicago Fire Sale: Jared Allen to CAR, Jon Bostic to NE

Sounds plausible. Even defenders will take a little while to learn the new teams scheme/language/system, so earlier can be more valuable to the recipient. A Carolina sixth round may be pretty low, I'd have held out for more ... unless it really is a being-nice move to Allen, in which case, bless 'em.

29 Jay Cutler

Today, the Dallas Cowboys traded a conditional 2nd round pick to the Bears in return for injured quarterback Jay Cutler.

"I've heard he's smokin'!" Said Cowboys owner Jerry Jones.

Word is the conditional nature of the 2nd round pick is that the Bears will not receive the pick only if Cutler makes the 53 man roster and picks a fight with Tony Romo in which one of them is injured.

37 Re: Chicago Fire Sale: Jared Allen to CAR, Jon Bostic to NE

I would have no problem with the Bears tanking, but this isn't tanking, this is getting rid of guys you know won't be here when you're finished overhauling the team and getting anything you can in return. It also frees up practice and game reps for other guys you want to evaluate.

Apparently last year's 4th-rounder Brock Vereen couldn't even net them a conditional 7th, so they just cut him.

42 Re: Chicago Fire Sale: Jared Allen to CAR, Jon Bostic to NE

What a lot of these discussions don't address is that tanking is subjective. I don't think even the people who hate tanking would argue that a team should always do whatever it takes to maximize their chances in the current season at the expense of future seasons. I mean, no one is accusing the Bears of tanking because they are not trading away draft picks to try to acquire a better QB than Jimmy Clausen while Cutler is out; that's just common sense.

So where is the line drawn? Clearly if the Bears trade away most of their starters (which sounds absurd, but you never know), that would be tanking. But I agree with you - it's being done to build for the future as much as to try to secure a better draft pick. I don't care if Jared Allen went on to have a 30-sack season this year, he still wasn't going to get the Bears closer to a championship because he will be retired long before that happens. Putting someone else out there to get reps and experience *does* get the Bears closer.

49 Re: Chicago Fire Sale: Jared Allen to CAR, Jon Bostic to NE

30 sacks? Might want to keep that just for the spectacle. It is an entertainment business.

Tanking is taken seriously in the NBA because the evaluation of who will be great seems better and there are fewer players (analogous to an NFL draft in which each draft spot allowed you to pick about 4 or 5 players before giving it up to the next team ... not that the Bears would do much with that, but still ...).

There are exceptions (BAL, NYG, NYG, ...) but the best bet seems to be get a top 5 QB. By the Bars experience this is very hard to do.

41 Re: Chicago Fire Sale: Jared Allen to CAR, Jon Bostic to NE

The Allen move is a no-brainer. He's at the tail end of his career, doesn't fit the scheme, and may not even have that much left in the tank regardless. The salary is a sunk cost and that cap space can't really help the Bears now (it's not like there are expensive guys on the market and even if there were, the Bears wouldn't be looking to add them), so might as well get a 6th round pick.

The Bostic move is more interesting. While I don't think he was doing very well, you'd think they might want to evaluate him more. Is it a scheme thing there? Also interesting to me that the Patriots wanted him.

I say they should keep trading away whoever they can. The only two players I would consider untouchable at any price should be Kyle Long and Alshon Jeffery, and I'm not even 100% sure about Jeffery. They're 3+ years away from contending under the best-case scenario.

I would have to think that some contending team would consider trading a mid-round pick to rent Forte for the rest of the season. As much as I'd love to see him retire a Bear, that wasn't going to happen anyway.

43 Re: Chicago Fire Sale: Jared Allen to CAR, Jon Bostic to NE

As a Broncos fan, I got excited by the thought that maybe we could pick up an O lineman or 2. From the Bears. Then I banged my head into a wall for a while.

In all seriousness, I think Broncos management should try to get Will Montgomery back. I don't know why we ditched him in the first place, and after Gradkowshi didn't work out, I don't think anyone is too excited about Paradis at center so far. The Bears ditching a 32-year-old vet might make sense when they have a 3rd round draft pick to break in at rookie. I didn't watch a lot of his play at Washington, but it was 3 years starting under Shanahan, so he can even handle zone blocking.

46 Re: Chicago Fire Sale: Jared Allen to CAR, Jon Bostic to NE

Yeah, it's bizarro world this year: the Bears are godawful everywhere *except* the offensive line, and the Broncos are excellent despite their terrible passing offense. Your scenario with Montgomery is not out of the question, but I hope it doesn't happen, because Grasu looked utterly lost in the preseason and might get someone killed if they throw him out there now.