Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

07 Sep 2017

Scott Kacsmar's 2017 NFL Predictions

For the fifth year in a row, I posted my personal predictions on my blog, and this year's was the longest thing I have ever written. 2017 is basically the Patriots vs. the NFL, and I explained why 19-0 is unlikely, but another title is likely. I went into detail about how the Julian Edelman injury could cost the Patriots in the end, and why the Chiefs are the AFC team best prepared to dethrone the Patriots. I also wrote a eulogy for the 2016 Falcons, but unlike our site projections, I still like Atlanta by the slimmest of margins over Carolina for the NFC South. I also had the Chiefs edging out Oakland by one game, but otherwise I agree with the other six division winners. In the end, I see another Super Bowl rematch with New England against Seattle.

Posted by: Scott Kacsmar on 07 Sep 2017

15 comments, Last at 09 Sep 2017, 10:18am by Will Allen


by johonny :: Thu, 09/07/2017 - 4:16pm

Over the past 15 years you can list a lot more than Hogan that have gotten away from the Bills, Miami, and Jets to end up producing in NE. One thing about being bad and having constant front office turnover is that the Patriots known their opponents roster better than the teams trying to beat them because often the staff is often new, and worried about blowing things up, or just simply winning now because the last guy didn't and was shown the door. I honestly can't remember the last Patriot Miami picked up that was half as productive as say Rob Ninkovich who somehow wasn't good enough to stick in Miami. Oh the pain, the pain...

by Anon Ymous :: Thu, 09/07/2017 - 4:40pm

I honestly can't remember the last Patriot Miami picked up that was half as productive as say Rob Ninkovich who somehow wasn't good enough to stick in Miami.

As Nink himself said, he wasn't good enough to even be active on Miami's 1-15 team in 2007. :)

by RickD :: Thu, 09/07/2017 - 6:09pm

Da-yum, that's long. Not that I'm complaining - clearly you've put a lot of effort it. Usually any column that makes predictions for the entire league has at most one paragraph per team. I'm halfway through and I've got to take a break.

Good job.

by Scott Kacsmar :: Thu, 09/07/2017 - 7:05pm

Thanks. I started it Tuesday, finished about 6 AM today. Really just a summary of my research and thoughts from the last seven months. So it doesn't take as long as it looks since I don't have to do a lot of research from scratch. I've had plenty of time.

by Raiderjoe :: Thu, 09/07/2017 - 6:19pm

Mgitj do my osb pi ks tkk

by The Ancient Mariner :: Thu, 09/07/2017 - 8:45pm

Even for Raiderjoe, that comment is epic. :)

by James-London :: Fri, 09/08/2017 - 5:58am

Thanks Scott. Working through this, but your Washington comments are interesting. Given how strongly you panned Detroit for the Stafford extension, I'm suprised you're on-board with paying Cousins. Is this a change of mind or just acceptenace that 'above average' QB play gets paid?

Phil Simms is a Cretin.

by Scott Kacsmar :: Fri, 09/08/2017 - 6:02am

It's just acknowledging the inevitable. I'd prefer to not pay him like that, but someone probably will.

by James-London :: Fri, 09/08/2017 - 6:19am

That's fair. 'Not Bortles' is worth $20M currently, and as a real FA, Cousins is going to get third-world GDP money unless he completely implodes this year.

Phil Simms is a Cretin.

by James-London :: Fri, 09/08/2017 - 6:29am

Your scenario for Bortles is so much fun, but Mike Tannenbaum has form for this, so it's a little terrifying...

Phil Simms is a Cretin.

by Pat :: Fri, 09/08/2017 - 9:07am

Well, some of the Chiefs/Patriots game comments are just damn prescient. And they didn't win 35-28, after all. :)

by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Fri, 09/08/2017 - 10:05am

Re: the Stafford playoff team record comp -- if you break him down into record against top-6 offenses vs top-6 defenses, I'm curious how that shakes out.

Is it that he can't win against a good D, or that his D can't win against a good O?

by MilkmanDanimal :: Fri, 09/08/2017 - 12:06pm

"Sure, he’ll probably hold onto an NFL job for the next eight years, because he’s white and stands for the anthem."

That is a brutal and beautiful line about Blake Bortles.

by Denverite :: Fri, 09/08/2017 - 8:00pm

I left a comment on your blog, but at this point, just FYI, anyone who uses the formulation "low ceiling" to criticize Trevor Siemian, I read it as "he doesn't make me feel special and tingly DOWN THERE."

by Will Allen :: Sat, 09/09/2017 - 10:18am

The gif of the Vikings o-line last year actually overstates their performance. They usually didn't hold with that level of proficiency.