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Black Monday 2018 Discussion Thread

Black Monday 2018 Discussion Thread
Photo: USA Today Sports Images

Black Monday, the NFL's annual post-season day of coach and/or GM firings, got its start on Sunday, as news broke the Tampa Bay Buccaneers fired head coach Dirk Koetter. Elevated to the top job in 2016 because they wanted continuity with Jameis Winston, Koetter went 9-7 his first year and followed that up with back-to-back 5-11 seasons after today's loss to the Atlanta Falcons as Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick combined to throw 26 interceptions, well more than any other team had.

Later on Sunday, the New York Jets fired head coach Todd Bowles. Like Koetter, Bowles went 10-6 in his first season as head coach and failed to post more than 5 wins in any later season, going 5-11, 5-11, and finally 4-12 with today's season-ending blowout loss to the New England Patriots. Sam Darnold gets a new regime for his second season, and GM Mike Maccagnan's search for a new boss will presumably be focused on maximizing his potential.

In other coach and front office news, the Jaguars after their season-ending loss to the Houston Texans announced head coach Doug Marrone, general manager Dave Caldwell, and actual decision-maker Tom Coughlin would all be returning for 2019.

Updates to come on this XP as news of additional firings and non-firings comes later Sunday and on into Monday.

MONDAY UPDATE 10 am: Three coach firings have been announced so far on Monday morning. Steve Wilks will be fired after only one year with Arizona, albeit it one year as the worst team in the league. Denver fired Vance Joseph after two years, the first back-to-back losing years for the franchise since the early 1970s. And the Miami Dolphins fired Adam Gase after three years. Gase is a well-regarded young offensive mind who will probably be considered for one of the open jobs.

And now... the big news, the axe finally fell on Marvin Lewis after 16 years (and no playoff wins) in Cincinnati. It's been three straight losing seasons. They couldn't possibly replace Lewis with Hue Jackson like all the rumors say, right? What a terrible move that would be.

Also, notice there have been no GM firings yet. Only head coaches.

MONDAY UPDATE 12:30 pm: We've got our first GM firing, as Miami's Mike Tannenbaum has been "reassigned within the organization" and Chris Grier will take over full GM duties.

Also, while Atlanta is keeping head coach Dan Quinn, they've fired offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian, defensive coordinator Marquand Manuel, and special teams coordinator Keith Armstrong.

Comments

97 comments, Last at 09 Jan 2019, 8:42am

2 Re: Black Monday 2018 Discussion Thread (Latest: Bowles Out)

Seeing Dirk Koetter getting fired leaves me thinking that what Tony Dungy achieved at the Bucs is even more impressive.

Gruden is the only other HC the franchise has had with any success. While most posters around here seem to see his name as mud he actually finished off in 2008-09 with back-to-back 9-7 seasons.

Considering they've also had two other coaches with SB appearances to their names in Sam Wyche and Lovie Smith, it seems to be a tough gig in Tampa.

8 Re: Black Monday 2018 Discussion Thread (Latest: Bowles Out)

Can't say I followed Lovie or the Bucs well enough to know whether it was a good or bad move.

I recall there were stories that they fired him because they wanted to retain Koetter who'd had a hand in Winston's rookie success. If those were true, then it backfired with both Koetter and Winston.

7 Re: Black Monday

I'm curious if these conversations will happen:

Tampa - "You gotta give Winston a try for at least next year"

Cinci - "No legit front office resources or scouts, we like the structure the way it is"

Denver - "John retains personnel control and we have no idea who the owner(s) will be, only that it will be long and messy"

Miami - "I treat the team as a cash register, and may or may not sell it tomorrow if the right offer comes along."

Man, that Cardinals job looks good...

10 Re: Black Monday

In reply to by billprudden

That Green Bay job looks even better.

What's the story with Denver and ownership? Is Bowlen selling out?

15 Re: Black Monday

In reply to by Bright Blue Shorts

Hello -

Let me add:

GB: "Your QB (a) is more passive aggressive than Lebron, and (b) will be the league's highest paid player each week, but may not necc be the league's best player each week. So like half the time he's actually a liability."

In Denver, Pat is sick and the team is being managed by a group of lawyers until they decide which wife, ex-wife, sister, granddaughter, or relative to be named later will exercise control.

27 Re: Black Monday

In reply to by Bright Blue Shorts

Bowlen has Alzheimer's. The franchise has been run by a trust since Pat Bowlen stepped away several years ago to battle Alzheimer’s. I believe there is a battle with multiple children and trust members trying to gain control.

35 Re: Black Monday

In reply to by Bright Blue Shorts

From a NY Times article about Beth Bowlen:
"In the summer of 2014, her father, Pat Bowlen, who has Alzheimer’s disease, turned over the reins of the team to three trustees, who set out benchmarks — some specific, some broad — for his seven children to meet before one could become its controlling owner. Four years later, what originally looked like an orderly and sensible succession plan has turned into the latest intrafamily battle over one of the N.F.L.’s premier franchises. A lawsuit has commenced, and the N.F.L. has been asked to arbitrate, a request that one of Pat Bowlen’s brothers, a former minority owner, called a delaying tactic in a filing last weekend."

9 Gase

I don't understand why Gase is highly regarded. He seems to get the least out of all his players. He criminally underused Drake this year and got nothing out of what should have been at least a decent stable of WRs. He also seems to have a "my way or the highway" mentality which lead to Drakes limited use, Ajayi's departure and DeVante Parker being a healthy scratch for multiple games this year.

The idea of Gase coaching a team I enjoy watching (i.e. Browns) scares the $#*& out of me.

11 Re: Gase

In reply to by nlitwinetz

Same reason that Josh McDaniels was an exciting hire back in 2009. As offensive co-ordinator of a team scoring a lot of points, he was 'obviously' the reason behind that success.

16 Re: Gase

In reply to by Bright Blue Shorts

I'll say this, he got the best Cutler performance of any Bears offensive coordinator.

28 Re: Gase

In reply to by tuluse

This is the best Cutler performance: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sSB5OpDOTcA

12 Re: Gase

In reply to by nlitwinetz

And yet they've won more games each year than the talent level of the team warranted. You could say he's worked small miracles all three seasons.

Still, I understand his firing. Give the new GM a clean slate. But if Tannenbaum doesn't go, too, I swear to god I'll...

20 Re: Gase

In reply to by Noah Arkadia

As a Pats' fan, I'm amazed that Gase in the one being fired instead of Tannenbaum. The rumor on Twitter is that he gave the owner a cold shoulder after a loss, saying "Not now" after the guy wanted to talk to him right after the game.

Tannenbaum must be a better shmoozer.

24 Re: Gase

In reply to by RickD

Well, Tannenbaum has been "reassigned within the organization" - have to imagine he'll be gone sooner than later.

A few Packers writers and followers are banging the drum for Gase as a candidate in Green Bay. His Miami resume isn't anything to write home about, but as others have pointed out he was pretty successful with not much to work with as the Bears OC in '15.

48 Re: Gase

In reply to by dank067

I would guess that Tannenbaum is gone pretty much straight after the draft. Until then, they may want to keep whatever he knows about their thinking in-house.

81 Re: Gase

In reply to by Mr Shush

As someone who follows the Jets, I was saddened to see Tannenbaum relieved of his responsibilities and moved internally.

I have an idea - the Dolphins can hire Rex Ryan.

25 Re: Gase

In reply to by RickD

I think Gase wanted out of Miami. He can get a gig elsewhere. He's been signaling he wanted out for a while now.

34 Re: Gase

In reply to by RickD

Yes, I just saw the rumor and also that several players had talked against him to ownership. Surprising given how those things tend to leak beforehand. But I buy it, as he never seemed comfortable with his players, trading away or cutting veterans all the time.

80 Re: Gase

In reply to by RickD

Look at Tannenbaums draft record 2009-2012 after which he was fired. Horrible.
And Ross hired him?!?!?!
Of course he must be great at shmoozing.

30 Re: Gase

In reply to by Noah Arkadia

The Dolphins had a -243 point differential under Gase. They pretty much either won close games or got blown out.

There is no way the Buffalo Bills had more talent than the Dolphins, yet they got blow out by them yesterday.

38 Re: Gase

In reply to by Richie

I think the bills have more talent. Their big problem was for most of the year their offense was straight out of the stone age.

42 Re: Gase

In reply to by Richie

I think the two big knocks on him were 1) He had feuds with player. (But hey so did Parcels so these can be overrated when you lose) 2) He ignored-deferred his defense to coaches. His defense never improved in 3 years. A lot of his defensive talent never developed. Is that him, or the guy picking him. a guy who just got promoted? Or is it both? The rumor out earlier in the year was he wanted a better D-coordinator but Ross denied him the money to get it. As for yesterdays game, it sure looked like a team that didn't want to play. I kind of thought Gase was toast because it felt like the players knew it Sunday.

65 Re: Gase

In reply to by Richie

Off the top of your head, can you name the Dolphins' best player? How about after considerable research? This is a team that has been extremely poorly managed at the FO level. There are many bad contracts, but not many good players. There are some good young developing ones, I'll give you that. The teams has drafted solidly. Getting blown out is understandable, but winning the close games is impressive. Unless it's just luck, but the Dolphins didn't have that kind of luck before Gase arrived. It would be an extraordinary coincidence.

74 Re: Gase

In reply to by Noah Arkadia

Xavien Howard, and no, I didn't have to research it (although I did have to check to make sure I spelled it right).

In all seriousness, though, I get your point about the lack of talent on the roster. However, I would imagine Gase bears some responsibility for that, as head coaches almost always have significant input on personnel decisions. But that assumption might be wrong, as I don't follow the Dolphins nearly as closely as you do.

I will say that, from an outsider's point of view, the thing that has struck me about the Dolphins in the Gase era (and especially this year) is their wild inconsistency, at least with Tannehill. With Osweiler, you could pretty reliably count on them to suck, but with Tannehill, they were a real Jekyll & Hyde operation. Again, you'd think some of that's on Gase. Part of a coach's job is to get consistent performance out of his players.

86 Re: Gase

In reply to by Noah Arkadia

I would say Cameron Wake is their best player. Which is a problem, considering he's a 37-year-old edge rusher.

Under Gase, the Dolphins have 3 double-digit wins and 19 double-digit losses. (Plus a 20th in the 2016 playoffs.)

88 Re: Gase

In reply to by nlitwinetz

I couldn't agree more. I see a lot of McDaniels in Denver to his style -- that is, a tough-guy-I'm-the-boss attitude without the bona fides to get players to take him seriously. I think he's been the most overrated coach in the NFL for the last couple of seasons.

I wonder if GMs and Team President types like him because they perceive him as someone they can control?

91 Re: Gase

In reply to by dryheat

Disagree about McDaniels in Denver. McDaniels was wildly successful as a coach, he had Kyle Orton playing at a top-10 level, Brandon Lloyd was #2 in DVOA one year, etc. His teams seemed to play hard, but the problem was he ruined a great coaching performance with possibly the worst GM performance in history. He did Matt Millen levels of damage in just a few years.

92 Re: Gase

In reply to by Mountain Time …

I'm still unclear whether he or Brian Xanders had control over the draft and roster. Everybody blames McDaniels for Tebow and others, but I'm not convinced that it's deserved.

13 Re: Black Monday 2018 Discussion Thread

Part of me is really sympathetic to Lewis who worked with an underpaid and overworked staff across the board because of Mike Brown's determination to do everything on the cheap. The flip side is that Marvin absolutely knew the situation so no sympathy required.

The Bengals will find someone young and hungry willing to work in that situation as a stepping stone. But anyone of quality will quickly get hired elsewhere.

79 Re: Black Monday 2018 Discussion Thread

I'm intrigued by why coaches don't back themselves and leave.

The only examples I can think of are Doug Marrone voided his contract in Buffalo with the ownership change. Think Marty left Cleveland voluntarily but got picked up immediately by Kansas City.

I suspect they get blackballed if they do? Do they have to call it retiring to avoid stigma, as Vermeil did at the Rams and Parcells did in a few places, and sit out a seaon or two.

14 Re: Black Monday 2018 Discussion Thread (

Joseph and Gase were a hot ticket in Miami three years ago...Gase's crime is that his team won more games than the advanced metrics or even simple metrics like pythag, said they should, would, could. Oddly he was on the coach of the year list even this year at mid-season until injuries ravaged his team. Tannehill looked putrid after his week 4 injury. He's hurt. He also might be another classic case of Carr disease where so many hits ruins you. You have to think he's done as starter, but if Gase is out and the GM safe...it must mean they still believe in Tannehill. Yeach. Gase will be someone's QB-or OC and get another gig at the coaching level somewhere where roster decisions aren't done by three to four different masters. As for Miami, IDK. Gase was the best they could hope for three years ago. Now? Rumor is BIG NAME COLLEGE COACH. Which translates into guy who will Nick Saban out of town in two years back to college. I honestly don't know who'd want to coach a team that has so little talent, will shed much more talent in the off season, and no quality free agent player wants to play for. Gase time in Miami reminds me of Sparano. Both decent coaches, both done in by great first seasons that couldn't be built on because the team roster wasn't there. Both never had that QB that you could count on. It's going to be ugly in Miami next year. They probably should have kept Gase for the tear down and wait until next year for the rebuild coach.

17 Re: Jets fans need a real Red Wedding

So disappointed that the Jets haven't fired MacCagnan. He has the worst drafting record in the NFL in rounds 2-5 as far as players being on a NFL roster. The first round picks are better, but not as good as the NY media thinks. His free agency record is also terrible: Re-Revis, Buster Skrine, Tru Johnson. There's a perfect replacement available in Reggie McKenzie, whose record isn't perfect but is still much better. People talk about stability being important, but committment to mediocrity or atrocity doesn't work.

82 Re: Jets fans need a real Red Wedding

I'd rather have Reggie than Macc, though I'm not sure that Reggie is all that good.

Keep in mind that Maccagnan got three #6 overall picks., People say that he hit with his first round picks, but it's easy to hit when you draft that high. And his hits aren't necessarily all that good. Leonard Williams is a good player, not a great one. Not a good pass rusher, he's a run stuffer.
Darron Lee has improved and his coverage numbers were good, but he's bad against the run.
Jamal Adams is very good. Sam Darnold looks to become quite good.

Maccagnan is treading water, bringing in a couple of players while the team becomes a year older. It was 4-12 when he took over and his teams have gone 10-6 (lucky injury to Geno Smith and Ryan Fitzpatrick starts), 5-11, 5-11, 4-12. After 4 years still 4-12. And the easy part is going from 4-12 to 8-8. The hard part is turning a 8-8 team into a winner. The Jets are going nowhere with him as GM and the Johnsons as owners.

85 Re: Jets fans need a real Red Wedding

I'm not that sure about Reggie either.

He put himself into a corner by blowing up back-to-back 8-8 teams. He couldn't attract free agents because he wasn't willing to pay them big and there was no sign of winning either. He couldn't (or didn't want) a decent veteran coach so he hired Dennis Allen.

In fairness, he was hamstrung by lack of 1st rounders from Carson Palmer trade and Terrelle Pryor supplemental pick. When he wouldn't pay Carson Palmer, he traded him to Arizona for spare change and Palmer then had a few good years in the desert. Reggie hoped to replace him on the cheap with Matt Flynn, Matt Schaub, Matt McGloin but fortunately never had to use them as he got a pick in Derek Carr. His only other notable draftees are Mack and Cooper. There was also the negated Roger Saffold trade.

He benefited hugely when San Francisco's Super Bowl team imploded and Seattle's SB winners wanted paying.

He always seemed more interested in keeping the cap under control than bringing in talent to build a decent team. But I could be wrong about him. He said he had a five year plan to rebuild the Raiders and that arguably happened when they went 12-4 in 2016.

90 Re: Jets fans need a real Red Wedding

McKenzie did not have a choice as far as blowing up the Raiders; they were 20 million over the cap when he came, and there wasn't an easy fix. People tend to overrate salary cap problems, and believe the issues last longer than one year; Idzik's first year with the Jets is an example. The Jets were 10-20 million over the cap, but all he had to do was cut 3 underperforming players and wallah- they were under the cap and had almost 100 million two years later. The Raiders had the most expensive special teams in the entire league, and did not have easy cuts the way the Jets did. They also had very little young talent, and had 50 million in dead money on their cap in 2013. That's a situation very few teams find themselves in nowadays.
McKenzie did sign free agents, and improved the offensive line in that way. He also drafted Gabe Jackson, who has been decent at least for the Raiders. I would love it if MacCagnan could have drafted him.

18 Re: Black Monday

If you all don't object to some musings and what-iffing, the randomness and capriciousness of this game amazes me. Take Marvin Lewis and change just two playoff games - the one when Carson Palmer's knee got hurt and the Steelers brawl game from a couple years ago. If Cinci wins those so many things are so very different, and this coach is remembered very differently...

And I know Mike Jones and Malcolm Butler and all fine with the randomness, but wow this seems a harsh way to make a living.

23 Re: Black Monday

What I remember more occurred before that Steelers brawl game, when Andy Dalton got injured. Dalton was an MVP candidate that year and the Bengals were one of the top teams in the AFC. They still almost beat Pittsburgh even with AJ McCarron starting. Dalton going down was a terrible break for Marvin Lewis and the Bengals. I agree with the idea that Lewis could easily be remembered very differently. I still think he did okay considering how good the Ravens and Steelers have been over the years and the fact that he never had a great QB to make success easy, à la Mike McCarthy.

37 Re: Black Monday

I consider Lewis' tenure in Cincinnati a success. The team has mostly been a relevant franchise during his time there. 7 playoff trips in 16 seasons. Compare that to the awful 90's Bengals and the 2 playoff trips in the 20 years before Lewis.

Looking at PFR, I just noticed that Bob Johnson is the only Bengals player to have his number retired. Why was his number retired, and why is he the only one? Was it retired just because he was the first Bengals draft pick? He played there 12 years, and made the Pro Bowl one time - his rookie year. He isn't in their top-12 AV list. He was only third in career AV (behind Ken Anderson and Ken Riley) when he retired.

26 Re: Black Monday 2018 Discussion Thread

I didn't see much of Atlanta this year. But DVOA had them as a top 10 offense, and most conventional statistics had them good on offense. Why is Sarkisian the scape goat? Wasn't theirs a defensive problem?

60 Re: Black Monday 2018 Discussion Thread

They might very well bring Koetter back, although if they do, I doubt it would be because they see him as some sort of offensive mastermind. Rather, it would be because he has previously worked with Ryan. Arguably the two worst years of Ryan's career have been years where he was working with a new OC (Shanahan's first year, and then Sarkisian's first year). He then had arguably his two best years in year two with both those guys. So, it seems to take him a while to get on the same page with a new OC. Bringing back a guy that he's already familiar with could help mitigate that.

41 Re: Black Monday 2018 Discussion Thread

Man, Marvin Lewis' epitaph probably requires a separate thread. From an outside perspective, I admire the job he did. Hell, if it weren't for the Browns, the Bengals would have a real claim as the most dysfunctional NFL franchise.

The Owner is awful. The facilities stink. The division is nearly always a blood bath and the history of the franchise is mostly depressing. What he managed to accomplish was a minor miracle. Oh, and I don't blame him for the team falling off a cliff midseason - injuries will do that don't ya know.

I can see arguments in favor of letting him go. The team feels like its absolute ceiling is a third seed and a playoff loss. Ok, fine - but the floor was a lot higher with Marvin than what it could be with(GULP!) Hue Jackson.

In fact, I could see Hue happily taking a cheapo salary just to be head coach again. And I can also easily see Mike Brown happy to comply.

43 Re: Black Monday 2018 Discussion Thread

I am curious to see how long Elway can remain idolized while the post Manning era continues to disappoint. I didn't like the Vance Joseph hire and despite some talent on the roster, I don't think it looks like a great job going forward. The team is mostly bereft of skill talent and has real problems at qb. I don't see a quick and easy path to title contention - which means as the defensive talent gets worse, Elway is facing a real teardown situation. Is that something Bronco fans have the stomach for?

67 Re: Black Monday 2018 Discussion Thread

Here's my read on Elway (as I'm a Broncos fan, it's somewhat biased):

He's good on cornerbacks and pass rushers. Wideouts seem to be somewhat hit-or-miss. Not sure how to evaluate his drafting at all other (non-QB) positions; the offensive line got better this year, but it sucked the two (three?) years prior. His QB selection has been notably lacking, even though he's really only blown "one" pick (Paxton Lynch); I figure every GM gets to blow a QB pick, though.

Basically, I'd give him a few more years to find a QB. If he can, the Broncos will probably look a lot better in short order. If he can't, they'll continue to struggle.

45 Re: Black Monday 2018 Discussion Thread

I think McCarthy and Cincinnati could happen. I guess he wants to stay in football, he doesn't strike me as a TV type, with his career he won't and shouldn't be a coordinator, Cincinnati has that classic established QB/midfield-striving-to-contend situation.

51 Re: Black Monday 2018 Discussion Thread

I don’t see how firing a coach after less than three years is anything less than an automatic firing for a GM. How can you say that you botched one of your primary job duties so badly that the coach has to go, yet you deserve to keep your job?

53 Re: Black Monday 2018 Discussion Thread

Perhaps the biggest thing this Monday is who hasn't been fired. I guess Harbaugh is off the hot seat now, but hoping for him was always a longshot. I was crossing my fingers that Jay Gruden would get canned by Snyder so he could come to a real NFL franchise (I would celebrate if Denver could hire either of them).

54 Re: Black Monday 2018 Discussion Thread

According to Schefter, Broncos are interviewing Fangio. What's your take on him for the Broncos? Do you want to see an offensive coach or a defensive coach?

ETA: Also according to Schefter, Adam Gase has heard from the majority of teams currently searching. How do you think he'd work with the Broncos?

61 Re: Black Monday 2018 Discussion Thread

I kind of like the idea of a defensive guy, if only because I would be sad to see Bill Musgrave go. There just aren't a lot of guys I think would be better with this offense. Jay Gruden is one, but I don't know of anyone actually available on that side of the ball who's better. The Sean McVays and Matt Nagys have been hot hires the last couple of years.

I don't know anything about Vic Fangio specifically, but at a glance he's had an impressive career. How has he not been a head coach before now? I would be optimistic about him, even more so if that means keeping Musgrave. Also, how is Musgrave not an HC candidate? His age is my only guess, since young and competent offensive guys are en vogue lately, and it would be just like the NFL to key on the young part more than the competent part.

I'm not a big fan of Adam Gase. He did fine here and in Chicago. His Dolphins teams have always overachieved vs. my expectations, but I assume that's mostly defense or special teams. His Dolphins offenses have always seemed inefficient to me in many ways, though I never followed them too closely. On top of that, trading Ajayi last year to "send a message to the clubhouse" or whatever he was doing is a huge red flag to me. That kind of move just reeks of inept leadership. Keeping that one coke-snorting, baby-mama-knowing coach on staff for so long is also pretty damning.

I don't think Elway would hire Gase though, after passing on Kyle Shanahan two years ago. My read on Elway is he's super concerned about appearances, and doesn't want to appear to be nepotistic in even the loosest sense of the word, so I don't expect anyone too familiar to get the job.

63 Re: Black Monday 2018 Discussion Thread

I sure hope you're joking about your nepotism claim. A lot of Elway's tenure has been nepotistic. The man likes hiring people he interacted with as a player. A key driver for Kubiak's hiring was that he and Elway played together for a long time and are close friends. That's also why he was allowed to "retire" to a front office position instead of getting fired. Elway played under Wade Phillips in the 90s. Vance Joseph played with head of player personnel Matt Russell at CU while Elway was still playing.

If Shannahan the Elder wants the job, he'll get it.

66 Re: Black Monday 2018 Discussion Thread

As they look to hire their 4th coach in 5 five years, the Broncos are almost replicating what the 49ers did from 2014-17 with firing Harbaugh, Tomsula, Kelly before settling on Shanny the Younger.

(Semantically Elway is displaying cronyism rather than nepotism. The former is close friends, the latter relatives. I don't think it's an issue when his cronies are qualified e.g. Wade Phillips or to an extent Kubiak who won two AFC South titels - but hiring Joseph was meh and likely the next will be too)

68 Re: Black Monday 2018 Discussion Thread

Kubiak's "retirement" was because of his heart problems, though. I don't have a problem with him getting "fired" because the doctors basically told him if he kept coaching his heart was going to explode on the field.

I do agree that four coaches in six years isn't a good look, but that one was probably unavoidable.

70 Re: Black Monday 2018 Discussion Thread

Really? Not the guy who fired Fox after losing a home playoff game despite a 70% winning percentage and 1 SB appearance? During those 2 years, the offense was terrible under Kubiak with seemingly little path to improvement. Also Kubiak wants to get back into coaching in 2019 - https://www.milehighreport.com/2018/12/31/18163072/gary-kubiak-coaching-2019. I stand by my statement that it was a stealth firing.

75 Re: Black Monday 2018 Discussion Thread

I forgot that Kubiak coached two seasons so it weakens my comparison to the 49ers. I wasn't alluding to it being a stealth firing only that constant organisational upheaval rarely works. Especially when the first guy fired has been successful in his tenure.

As for no-one would fire a coach ... Don McCafferty won a SB in his rookie year, went 10-4 and lost the Conference Championship the next year ... then got fired at 1-4 in his 3rd season when he refused to follow GM's orders and bench Unitas. Different era but never say never !

57 Re: Black Monday 2018 Discussion Thread

How would you rate the job openings if you were looking for a HC job? I guess I'd consider the QB situation, talent on the rest of the roster, cap situation, GM/overall front office, ownership, fanbase, and local press situation. I probably don't know enough about all of these things in every current opening, so this is a pretty naive take:

CLE - ownership is a bit flaky, Dorsey has a prickly rep as a GM, but I think all the other factor are pretty good. I think this is the prime job.
GB - my big concern here would be getting along with Rodgers and whether his best years are behind him - plus a big contract that makes the cap difficult.

Those seem to be the top 2 jobs, then a big gap. I'm not sure how to order the teams in the next tier:

NYJ - possibly have a QB of the future, but the GM is poor and the press is probably the hardest to deal with. I'm not sure the roster has a lot of talent.
ARI - maybe has a QB of the future - or could trade him and pick a new one. Not a lot of talent other wise. Maybe this is a tier too high?
DEN - this team has some interesting pieces but a big hole at QB and a GM who has swung and missed on a lot of QB choices (Manning was a hit, but besides the risk of his health coming off injury, anybody could have picked Manning as good when healthy),and Elway will dump a coach quickly. Unsettled ownership. But this has been such a strong franchise it seems like a good job.

Next tier:

TB - may have a settled QB, or maybe just a guy good enough to lose with. Some receiving talent too. Not sure about rest of roster and a revolving door of coaches. Basically only good with McKay/Dungy and first year of Gruden. Mediocre or worse otherwise.
CIN - cheap ownership, weak front office as a result. Another QB good enough to lose with but older than Winston.
MIA - new GM could make a difference but doesn't seem to have any strengths to build on.

I'm sure I'm wrong on a lot of this but if I were Harbaugh or another guy with options, I'm not sure any job after CLE and GB has a lot of appeal. I might take one anyway to get the experience and be in a position to get a 2nd HC job, but I think most of those jobs have failure written all over them.

64 Re: Black Monday 2018 Discussion Thread

I don't think that Cleveland can ever be a top job given how horrible ownership is. Haslam has never stuck to any sort of plan throughout his tenure. They could've made the playoffs this year if Haslam did the adult thing and fired Hue after last year. Despite the promise they showed during the last 10 weeks of the year, the franchise is still 1 QB injury and/or a bad OC hire away from being right back to being the same ol' Browns again IMO, given how reactionary ownership is.

Unless Rodgers' relative ineffectiveness was due to issues from the week 1 injury, I'd stay away from GB. Rodgers' greatness papered over a lot of schematic and roster deficiencies, as evidenced by the bottom falling out this year. As he ages, those deficiencies will become magnified and Rodgers will likely become even more difficult to work with. To top it off, the fan base thinks that they have a SB contender, so it'll be difficult to exceed expectations.

84 Re: Black Monday 2018 Discussion Thread

>>NYJ - possibly have a QB of the future, but the GM is poor and the press is probably the hardest to deal with. I'm not sure the roster has a lot of talent

You got that right. In addition, the GM is on thin ice. If he drafts poorly and the team has a bad record maybe he gets fired. Then you get to deal with a new GM.

89 Re: Black Monday 2018 Discussion Thread

If you go by the numbers on this website. Denver has been highly rated most of the year, but under performing in W/L. I think that indicates there's talent there to win right away. Obviously, if Cleveland'd front office wasn't Cleveland's front office the team itself is interesting. Arizona seems the most scary after that one in done year. That didn't look good.

59 Re: Black Monday 2018 Discussion Thread

I don't know what to make of the Lewis firing. On the one hand, their offense was pretty good early in the year, and it's understandable that it collapsed after they lost Dalton, Green and all the "Tylers" (Boyd, Eifert, Kroft).

But what is less excusable is how bad the defense was. They seem to have been relatively healthy on that side of the ball, and yet they were basically putrid all year long. And that looks even worse for Marvin, since he's a defensive coach.

In any case, if they do indeed replace him with Hue Jackson, they deserve to lose (and if that happens, I wouldn't blame some of their better players, like Green, for pulling the old "trade me or else I'll retire" move).

76 Re: Black Monday 2018 Discussion Thread

I can't stand Atlanta's move to fire every coordinator but keep the HC. How can you say that Quinn is doing an acceptable job, but every single one of his direct reports needs to be fired? He's their damn boss! If every one of your employees is failing, then you as a manager are failing. And it seems like any time you only partially clear the organization out, you're just setting yourself up for a miserable and directionless season or two before you come up with the guts to finish the job. This is a great way for an organization to stretch their two-year slide into a four-year slide.

94 Re: Black Monday 2018 Discussion Thread

I realize that this comment may not be seen by many, but a coach hiring issue cropped up; the NFL now forces teams to ask for permission from athletic directors before a team can interview college coaches. So USC just prevented their offensive coordinator from interviewing for the Jets and Cardinals head coaching jobs. If he was a coordinator in the NFL, no team could prevent another from interviewing him for a head coaching job. Not sure when this rule went into effect, but the implication is that a team that disobeys it may lose draft picks. This rule seems to be 1) not in the NFL's interest, 2) unfair to college coaches, and 3) stricter than the rule regarding NFL teams. It also just makes it seem that as bad as the NFL cartel is, the NCAA is much, much worse.

95 Re: Black Monday 2018 Discussion Thread

While I agree with your analysis, if colleges complain, the NFL will listen. Not only does the NCAA provide a free minor league system, but enough people pay attention that fans know who these kids are by the time they turn pro. If keeping that system in place screws a couple of college assistants, I'm sure the NFL can live with it.