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What's a Hall of Fame Quarterback Worth?

Really interesting analysis here by Jacob Davis, using EPA to look at the impact of a Hall of Fame quarterback by analyzing how receivers play with and without those top-level passers. With the EPA model at NFLscrapR, he estimates that a "Hall of Fame-level" quarterback provides 188 percent more value per attempt than other quarterbacks. But what stands out most is who doesn't fit in from his analysis. Receivers were, on average, 17 percent less productive when they were targeted by Eli Manning compared to other quarterbacks.

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9 comments, Last at 02 Aug 2019, 5:23pm

1 And yet he TWICE refers to…

And yet he TWICE refers to Manning as a sure-fire HOF QB.

And while I understand that the numbers stand alone, independent of any of his assumptions... man, that's some bad assumptions.

3 Super Bowl MVPs

Every single QB who has won 2 or more Super Bowl MVPs has made it to the HOF (or is likely to). Most QBs who have won 1 MVP have made it (or are likely to).

I don't think that's a good metric for who SHOULD make the HOF, but I think it is a pretty good metric of who is LIKELY to make the HOF, given the current voting practices.

I just think current HOF voters are too narrative-driven to ignore Eli's strong narrative case. C'est la vie.

9 We all know that the Giants…

We all know that the Giants defense won those Super Bowls, not Eli Manning. When your 'narrative' depends on a helmet catch, it doesn't seem all that strong.

4 2004 QBs are so strange. I…

2004 QBs are so strange.

I doubt that from 2007 or so on, there has been more than1-2% of scouts, evaluators, coaches, etc who would have chosen Eli over either Rivers or Ben.  And yet Eli seems inevitably heading to the Hof, and Rivers almost assuredly will miss it.

7 "And yet Eli seems…

"And yet Eli seems inevitably heading to the Hof, and Rivers almost assuredly will miss it."

My two quatloos says Rivers gets in without a lot of drama, and I'm not all convinced that Eli gets in.

8 After the class of '04 you…

After the class of '04 you've got Rodgers in '05, but then nobody you would say has a valid HOF case (yet). Matt Ryan would be the closest, he'll likely have a solid case when all is said and done, but far from watertight. So, given that Brady, Brees and Rodgers will surely sail straight in, we're likely looking at at least 10 years without an obvious QB inductee. That leaves plenty of opportunity for Rivers, Roethlisberger and Manning to force their way in.