Aaron Rodgers

2020 All-Pro Team Announced

The 2020 AP All-Pro Team was announced today, and you can find the winners at the link below. Aaron Donald and Travis Kelce were unanimous choices.

As you may know, for the first time this year I was honored to be one of the 50 members of the voting panel. So in the interest of open discussion, here were my choices for this year's All-Pro Team.

QB Aaron Rodgers, GB: A tough choice. I was planning to vote for Patrick Mahomes up until Week 17, but Rodgers went out, had the best day of any quarterback that week, and passed Mahomes in DVOA. Mahomes still ended the season higher in DYAR but so many other metrics out there have Rodgers higher (CPOE, public EPA models, QBR, etc.) that the final-week performance put me over the edge for Rodgers. SIS total points actually has Rodgers fourth (and Deshaun Watson first) but he led the league in their IQR metric.

RB Alvin Kamara, NO: Derrick Henry was the best runner in the league this year but I just couldn't vote for a guy with -75 receiving DYAR when so much research has shown that a lot of the differentiation in running back value comes in the passing game. So I went Kamara, who had the highest combined DYAR.

WR Davante Adams, GB; Stefon Diggs, BUF; Justin Jefferson, MIN: Another really difficult one. I easily could have gone with DeAndre Hopkins, Tyreek Hill, and DK Metcalf instead.

TE Travis Kelce, KC: Easiest choice.

LT David Bakhtiari, GB: My offensive line picks were a combination of looking at SIS total points earned as well as ESPN's pass block and run block win rates, and talking to offensive line experts such as Brandon Thorn.

LG Joel Bitonio, CLE

C Erik McCoy, NO

RG Brandon Scherff, WAS: This was the toughest offensive line position to choose because the best guards this year were either left guards or missed time due to injury.

RT Tristan Wirfs, TB

IDL Aaron Donald, LAR; Cameron Hayward, PIT: The top two interior linemen in SIS points saved, and it meets the eye test, with all due respect to DeForest Buckner.

ER T.J. Watt, PIT; Myles Garrett, CLE: Watt is a DPOY candidate, of course. Garrett led all edge rushers in "quality sacks" according to Brandon Thorn's charting.

LB Fred Warner, SF; Lavonte David, TB; Roquan Smith, CHI: These were the linebackers who ranked fourth, third, and first in SIS points saved, respectively. Smith led the league in defeats, tied with Devin White. David was fourth. I left out White because he allowed 7.0 yards per target in coverage while these three linebackers each allowed 4.5 yards per target or less.

CB Jaire Alexander, GB; Xavien Howard, MIA: I only regret that there weren't three cornerback slots to match the three wide receiver slots which would have allowed me to also vote for Jalen Ramsey. But between Ramsey, Alexander, and Howard, I could only choose two.

S Budda Baker, ARI; John Johnson, LAR: Johnson may be an outside the box choice but the Rams were at the top of the league in preventing deep passes as well as long runs this year. He was also high in SIS points saved. I was more comfortable with Baker than with Jamal Adams despite Adams' strength as a pass-rusher because he had some coverage issues.

K Jason Myers, SEA: The special teams choices were based on FO metrics. Myers was slightly behind Graham Gano of the Giants in FG/XP value but was much higher on kickoffs.

P Jake Bailey, NE: The leader in both net and gross value.

KR Cordarelle Patterson, CHI: Devin Duvernay was worth more per kick return but Patterson had more total value and changes the way the opposing kicker approaches kickoffs.

PR Gunner Olszewski, NE: Twice as much punt return value as anyone else.

ST George Odum, IND: 20 special teams tackles when nobody else was over 16.

LS Rick Lovato, PHI: 6 tackles, no blown snaps, and I ran his name past a couple of long-snapper experts and they seemed to feel it was a good choice.

Again, click this link for a list of the full winners:

View Full Article

Comments

33 comments, Last at 12 Jan 2021, 12:22pm

1 Some of your choices I…

Some of your choices I mildly disagree with, but I really appreciate you publishing your thought process.

7 RB seems like a forest…

In reply to by ImNewAroundThe…

RB seems like a forest missed for the trees.

Kamara benefits from playing with a HOF QB. Henry makes the TEN offense function. Kamara was kind of useless in the Hill games.

11 Counterpoint

Tannehill and his higher DYAR and DVOA than Brees, is how TN functions. Not Henrys non existence in the pass game

12 TEN runs more than they pass…

In reply to by ImNewAroundThe…

TEN runs more than they pass.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/oti/2020.htm

We know what Tannehill looks like in a pass-based offense.

13 True

And yet they still produce less yards, TDs and EPA. Arthur Smith is quite different than the other people Tannehill has worked with. Derrick Henry didnt explode til Tannehill came in last season. 

14 Well that and they stopped…

In reply to by ImNewAroundThe…

Well that and they stopped bothering with Dion Lewis.

But Henry is better without Tannehill than Kamara is without Brees.

15 Feels like we're getting away from the actual players

And going into team construction instead of their respective seasons. 

Dion Lewis doesn't really have anything to do with what Henry does. And Henry doesn't produce in the pass game like Kamara does (regardless of who's throwing, even though Tannehill is certainly more capable than Hill). 

 

16 Piling on somewhat, but...

Tannehill has the top EPA per dropback not on play-action, along with a substantially better completion percentage and TD/INT ratio than when he's passing on a run fake.

Tannehill is one of, if not the most efficient quarterback on designed run plays (admittedly that's with less volume, but even after several designed runs have been shown I have yet to remember the Tannehill option plays getting less than 10 yards/a touchdown).

When Henry's not on the field, Tannehill has an almost identical EPA/play and success rate. 

And of course, Tannehill's pass dropbacks are much more effective than Henry's rush attempts.

I'm a Titans fan and I almost think the Titans would be better off without Henry because of all the run plays he incentivizes them to use. Henry's a good back, sure, but Kamara and others upgrade their respective offenses much more than Henry does.

26 I thought Kamara was much…

I thought Kamara was much better in the last two Hill games than the first two. I suspect his initial struggles may have been game plan / chemistry related more than an example of how Kamara benefits from playing with Brees.

3 I'm glad the All-Pro voters…

I'm glad the All-Pro voters have finally got positions figured out enough that pass rushers aren't taking spots away from off-ball linebackers a la the Pro Bowl.

It does definitely seem like that third off-ball linebacker spot should go to a DB, though.

I also think it's a little silly that there just isn't a second team All-Pro tight end this year. Kelce was clearly deserving of unanimous selection, but it's not like he was the only good tight end in the league this year.

18 There is never an AP All Pro…

There is never an AP All Pro second team. The AP never votes for a second team.The whole "give the 2nd team nod to the next most votes guy" doesn’t make any sense. For a second team there would need to be some sort of weighted voting system.

4 RB

I get the decision of Kamara over Henry.  But is it time to rename the position RB to RR, that is "running receiver?"  The position has obviously become a hybrid one over the last decade.  The name should reflect that.  Of course if it was just about running this decision would have been easy.

8 Why not just call them…

In reply to by batesbruce

Why not just call them wingbacks, like we used to? It's what the position is.

5 Erik McCoy over Corey Linsley?

But the RG was the toughest?

EM: 11th+ RBWR (<73%), 11th+ PBWR (<96%), 11th PFF (70.5), 3 penalties

CL: 1st RBWR (77%), 5th PBWR (96%), 1st PFF (89.9), 0 penalties 

Hmmm, would love an explanation because Bak missed 1 more game than CL.

6 "The special teams choices…

"The special teams choices were based on FO metrics."

"KR Cordarelle Patterson, CHI: Devin Duvernay was worth more per kick return but Patterson had more total value and changes the way the opposing kicker approaches kickoffs."

This seems kind of arbitrary and inconsistent. I agree the Patterson is a better KR than Duvernay but Duvernay had a better year returning kicks.

Further, we know Justin Tucker is a better kicker than Jason Myers, but in this voting Myers gets the nod. What's the logic here? 

 

17 Aaron, congrats on getting…

Aaron, congrats on getting to vote (I must have missed that news earlier, or forgot). How awesome is that?!? Cool to be able to read your notes here—I haven't been this excited to see someone's self-reporting on something like this since Dr. Z. So, thank you. No doubt the process still has its issues, but as long as no one goes and touts a "second team" nod when no such thing exists, it is more than tolerable. 

19 Vote Totals

The vote totals have been released and since I couldn't find a format for them I liked anywhere else I did a quit edit with the limited options here and came up with something semi acceptable.

-----OFFENSE-----
Quarterback

  • Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay, 46
  • Josh Allen, Buffalo, 2
  • Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City, 2

Running Back

  • Derrick Henry, Tennessee, 47
  • Alvin Kamara, New Orleans, 3

Tight End

  • Travis Kelce, Kansas City, 50

Wide Receiver

  • Davante Adams, Green Bay, 49
  • Stefon Diggs, Buffalo, 48
  • Tyreek Hill, Kansas City, 24
  • DeAndre Hopkins, Arizona, 21
  • Justin Jefferson, Minnesota, 5
  • Calvin Ridley, Atlanta, 1
  • DK Metcalf, Seattle, 1
  • Cole Beasley, Buffalo, 1

Left Tackle

  • David Bakhtiari, Green Bay, 26
  • Garett Bolles, Denver, 13
  • Trent Williams, San Francisco, 7
  • Terron Armstead, New Orleans, 2
  • Laremy Tunsil, Houston, 1
  • Eric Fisher, Kansas City, 1

Right Tackle

  • Jack Conklin, Cleveland, 18
  • Ryan Ramczyk, New Orleans, 11
  • Tristan Wirfs, Tampa Bay, 10
  • Orlando Brown Jr., Baltimore, 5
  • Braden Smith, Indianapolis, 5
  • Daryl Williams, Buffalo, 1

Left Guard

  • Quenton Nelson, Indianapolis, 24
  • Joel Bitonio, Cleveland, 16
  • Ali Marpet, Tampa Bay, 7
  • Elgton Jenkins, Green Bay, 2
  • Rodger Saffold, Tennessee, 1

Right Guard

  • Brandon Scherff, Washington, 23 1-2
  • Wyatt Teller, Cleveland, 10
  • David DeCastro, Pittsburgh, 8 1-2
  • Zack Martin, Dallas, 3
  • Chris Lindstrom, Atlanta, 3
  • Nate Davis, Tennessee, 2

Center

  • Corey Linsley, Green Bay, 18
  • Ryan Kelly, Indianapolis, 8
  • Frank Ragnow, Detroit, 8
  • Rodney Hudson, Las Vegas, 5
  • Maurkice Pouncey, Pittsburgh, 4
  • Jason Kelce, Philadelphia, 2
  • Ben Jones, Tennessee, 2
  • JC Tretter, Cleveland, 1
  • Mitch Morse, Buffalo, 1
  • Erik McCoy, New Orleans, 1

-----DEFENSE-----
Edge Rushers

  • T.J. Watt, Pittsburgh, 47
  • Myles Garrett, Cleveland, 36
  • Khalil Mack, Chicago, 6
  • Za’Darius Smith, Green Bay, 4
  • Trey Hendrickson, New Orleans, 3
  • Haason Reddick, Arizona, 2
  • Brandon Graham, Philadelphia, 1
  • Cam Jordan, New Orleans, 1

Interior Linemen

  • Aaron Donald, Los Angeles Rams, 50
  • DeForest Buckner, Indianapolis, 25
  • Chris Jones, Kansas City, 10
  • Cam Heyward, Pittsburgh, 8
  • Grady Jarrett, Atlanta, 2
  • Leonard Williams, New York Giants, 2
  • Ndamukong Suh, Tampa Bay, 1
  • Quinnen Williams, New York Jets, 1
  • Stephon Tuitt, Pittsburgh, 1

Linebackers

  • Fred Warner, San Francisco, 39
  • Bobby Wagner, Seattle, 35
  • Darius Leonard, Indianapolis, 18
  • Devin White, Tampa Bay, 16
  • Demario Davis, New Orleans, 14
  • Lavonte David, Tampa Bay, 10
  • Roquan Smith, Chicago, 10
  • Eric Kendricks, Minnesota, 3
  • Blake Martinez, New York Giants, 2
  • Myles Jack, Jacksonville, 1
  • Zach Cunningham, Houston, 1
  • Deion Jones, Atlanta, 1

Cornerbacks

  • Xavien Howard, Miami, 47
  • Jalen Ramsey, Los Angeles Rams, 25
  • Jaire Alexander, Green Bay, 18
  • Tre’Davious White, Buffalo, 6
  • Marlon Humphrey, Baltimore, 2
  • James Bradberry, New York Giants, 1
  • J.C. Jackson, New England, 1

Safeties

  • Tyrann Mathieu, Kansas City, 19
  • Minkah Fitzpatrick, Pittsburgh, 18
  • Budda Baker, Arizona, 18
  • Jamal Adams, Seattle, 14
  • Jessie Bates III, Cincinnati, 8
  • Justin Simmons, Denver, 6
  • Adrian Amos, Green Bay, 6
  • John Johnson III, Los Angeles Rams, 4
  • Marcus Maye, New York Jets, 4
  • Jordan Poyer, Buffalo, 3

-----SPECIAL TEAMS-----
Placekicker

  • Jason Sanders, Miami, 23
  • Justin Tucker, Baltimore, 11
  • Younghoe Koo, Atlanta, 10
  • Jason Myers, Seattle, 4
  • Graham Gano, New York Giants, 1
  • Mason Crosby, Green Bay, 1

Punter

  • Jake Bailey, New England, 26
  • Jack Fox, Detroit, 12
  • Michael Dickson, Seattle, 9
  • Corey Bojorquez, Buffalo, 2
  • Tress Way, Washington, 1

Kick Returner

  • Cordarrelle Patterson, Chicago, 43
  • Andre Roberts, Buffalo, 7

Punt Returner

  • Gunner Olszewski, New England, 28
  • Jakeem Grant, Miami, 11
  • Andre Roberts, Buffalo, 6
  • Ray-Ray McCloud, Pittsburgh, 3
  • Hunter Renfrow, Las Vegas, 1
  • Nyheim Hines, Indianapolis, 1

Special Teamer

  • George Odum, Indianapolis, 28
  • Matthew Slater, New England, 7
  • Zeke Turner, Arizona, 4
  • Nick Bellore, Seattle 4
  • Justin Bethel, New England, 2
  • Dennis Gardeck, Arizona, 1
  • Gunner Olszewski, New England, 1
  • Andre Roberts, Buffalo, 1
  • Cordarrelle Patterson, Chicago, 1
  • Tyler Matakevich, Buffalo, 1

Long Snapper

  • Morgan Cox, Baltimore, 27
  • Luke Rhodes, Indianapolis, 8
  • Tyler Ott, Seattle, 7
  • Jon Weeks, Houston, 2
  • L.P. Ladouceur, Dallas, 2
  • Rick Lovato, Philadelphia, 1
  • Charley Hughlett, Cleveland, 1
  • Nick Sundberg, Washington, 1
  • J.J. Jansen, Carolina, 1

21 Blake Martinez!!!

In reply to by DisplacedPackerFan

Good for him, hopefully he nets us the highest of comp picks.

33 I didn't think that much of…

In reply to by ImNewAroundThe…

I didn't think that much of him when the Giants signed him, but man oh man he was amazing. Best linebacker the Giants have had in ages. And James Bradberry was just as good a signing. Their defense was NFL-quality. The offense...not so much.

24 Thanks for the list. Gotta…

In reply to by DisplacedPackerFan

Thanks for the list. Gotta disagree with Nelson at guard and Mathieu at safety,  both seem like reputation over performance.

25 Nicely formatted

In reply to by DisplacedPackerFan

Your formatting looks great. Was hoping Alexander got one of the CB slots. Still pretty good. 

30 Yeah I was pulling for…

In reply to by justanothersteve

Yeah I was pulling for Alexander too. Tough competition at CB so it was good to see him doing that well. One of my favorite plays of the season was seeing him stop Jimmy Graham from scoring on that last meaningless play against Chicago. That tells me a lot about a player.

 

I'll also chime in that I really enjoyed seeing Aaron's insights into how he voted. I just posted the totals because it adds further insight.

31 WR selections

In reply to by DisplacedPackerFan

Calvin Ridley and Cole Beasley are head-scratching picks. 

32 Beasley

In reply to by KaosTheory

I heard that Peter King voted for him because King felt that the team should have a slot receiver, and Beasley was the best of that group, in his opinion.

28 Had no idea that you were a…

Had no idea that you were a voter, Aaron. Congratulations. That's awesome.

Thanks for sharing insights your voting process. Thoroughly interesting and much appreciated!

29 Just adding my voice to the…

Just adding my voice to the chorus of appreciation for sharing your votes and thought process, Aaron. Happy wild card weekend.