Cam Newton

2021 Final Cuts Thread

It's time for that annual tradition, the Final Cuts Thread! Let's talk about the major cuts as teams get down to 53 players by Tuesday at 4pm EDT. We'll list major cuts here (particularly those that might have fantasy football impact) as well as trades and players going on IR.

UPDATED MONDAY 11AM

Arizona WR KeeSean Johnson
Detroit WR Breshad Perriman

New York Giants trade DT B.J. Hill to Cincinnati for C/G Billy Price.

UPDATED MONDAY 7PM

Cleveland DT Marvin Wilson (who was the most coveted UDFA back in May)
Kansas City RB Darwin Thompson
Miami LB Benardrick McKinney

UPDATED TUESDAY 10AM

New England cuts QB Cam Newton and places CB Stephon Gilmore on PUP

Buffalo cuts TE Jacob Hollister
Carolina cuts QB Will Grier
Dallas cuts QB Garrett Gilbert and QB Ben DiNucci
Detroit cuts LB Jahlani Tavai
Green Bay cuts G Ben Braden
New Orleans cuts RB Devonta Freeman
Washington cuts RB Peyton Barber and WR Isaiah Wright

Jacksonville trades CB Sidney Jones to Seattle for a 2022 sixth-round pick

UPDATED TUESDAY NOON

Atlanta cuts RB D'Onta Foreman
Chicago cuts WR Riley Ridley
Cleveland cuts WR KhaDarel Hodge
Green Bay places OT David Bakhtiari on PUP and cuts WR Equanimeous St. Brown
Jacksonville places S Josh Jones on IR
New Orleans places WR Michael Thomas on PUP
San Francisco cuts OL Senio Kelemete

UPDATED TUESDAY 2PM

Carolina cuts CB Rashaan Melvin
Los Angeles Chargers cut K Mike Badgley
New York Giants cut DE Ifeadi Odenigbo and LB Devante Downs
Philadelphia cuts WR Travis Fulgham
San Francisco cuts TE MyCole Pruitt
Washington cuts WR Antonio Gandy-Golden

UPDATED TUESDAY 4PM

New York Jets trade TE Christopher Herndon to Minnesota for unknown draft compensation

Los Angeles Rams trade P Corey Bojorquez and 2023 seventh-round pick to Green Bay for 2023 sixth-round pick

Detroit cuts both its kickers (Randy Bullock and Zane Gonzalez). Detroit also cuts WR Geronimo Allison, CB Corn Elder, and CB Nickell Robey-Coleman

Baltimore cuts FB Ben Mason, QB Trace McSorley, SS Anthony Levine, and OLB Pernell McPhee
Chicago cuts CB Desmond Trufant
Cincinnati cuts DT Mike Daniels
Jacksonville cuts WR Phillip Dorsett, OL Jermaine Eluemunor, and WR Pharoh Cooper
Los Angeles Chargers cut WR Tyron Johnson
Los Angeles Rams cut RB Xavier Jones and ILB Micah Kiser
Philadelphia cuts WR John Hightower and RB Jordan Howard
Pittsburgh cuts RB Jaylen Samuels
San Francisco cuts WR Travis Benjamin
Tennessee cuts WR Dez Fitzpatrick (fourth-round pick!)

Comments

210 comments, Last at 03 Sep 2021, 1:59pm

1 Bills trade DE Darryl…

Bills trade DE Darryl Johnson to CAR for a 2022 6th.

Bill release RB Kerrith Whyte, WR Brandon Powell, and CB Tim Harris

2 Hill for Price

So sad that this Giants fan is excited about them acquiring a guy I've never heard of who has mostly been a backup. Not much of a resume, but sadly probably better than what they've got. 

Tangent alert: why, when there were four roughly equally-rated O-lineman in the top half of the first round last year, do you (by "you" I mean Gettleman) not trade down knowing you'll get one of them, especially considering Tua and Herbert were still on the board? At least if you end up with the 4th best guy that way you have something else to show for it. Now all they got is the 4th best guy.

5 Part of the strategy

is admitting when clusters like that are hard to divide and not to be overconfident in your own evaluation. Especially in non QB prospects where it's much harder for them to impact the game and thus provide the requisite value for the picks given up.

More stabs at the apple>

Because anyone could've had Isaiah Wilson rated roughly equal too. 

119 Yep

I get having to split hairs at the end of the day but if someone is offering more picks, you should likely take it, as a general rule of thumb. IDK what Gettleman was offered last year but he finally seems to be learning!

121 Yes! Shocked and very…

In reply to by ImNewAroundThe…

Yes! Shocked and very pleased that they traded down and got an extra #1 next year. And now I have a rooting interest in the Bears losing this year :)

204 For example from this year:

But lower stakes: Dez Fitzpatrick. Two fold actually.

The first trade by Carolina to Houston. Texans (for some reason) traded up for Nico Collins (made the team), for the pick that would include Dez (traded), Daviyon Nixon (made the team) and a future 4th. 

But then TN traded up for Dez who they just cut! While giving the Panthers 3 guys this year that all made the team! Will all 3 pan out as superstars? Almost assuredly not but they're gonna provide more for Carolina right away than Dez will for TN! And one of the three has a good chance to become meaningful!

139 Or

In reply to by mansteel

why, when there were four roughly equally-rated O-lineman in the top half of the first round last year, do you (by "you" I mean Gettleman) not trade down knowing you'll get one of them, especially considering Tua and Herbert were still on the board?

Or, like, just take Herbert.

6 Ah, Darwin Thompson

The most herald guy Jordan Love lost from Utah State that dropped him to 88th in QBR in 2019 from...44th in 2018...

7 So the Dolphins cut…

So the Dolphins cut Benardrick McKinney?  The Texans still get that draft pick, right?  So they traded McKinney and a 7th for a 6th and Shaq Lawson, and then traded Lawson for a 6th.  They won a trade!!!!!???? 

Sounds like a Husker Du song to me.  

"If we feed the rats to the cats and the cats to the rats, we'd get the cat skins for nothing."

 

19 I don't really think they…

I don't really think they won.  He had no guaranteed money, Lawson did.  Miami traded down a 6th into a 7th to dump Lawson's salary. 

Turning a7 the and 7 million into 2 6s isn't much of a win for Houston.

57 But they traded Lawson, not…

But they traded Lawson, not cut him, so the Jets get to pay the guarantee. It was a good couple of trades for the Texans. The Dolphins lose a 6th for a 7th and get to dump about 10 million in salary and it's the Jets who end up both paying the salary and losing the pick.

Edit: I'm wrong and you're right. The Texans are 7 million down on this one and the Jets basically pay nothing. So, not bad but not great for the Texans.

30 no

By all reports Cam was playing better than he did in the second half of last season.  It's just that Mac was playing better still.  

Cam is getting cut so he can be picked up by another team and possibly start somewhere.  Not because he's worse than Hoyer and Stidham.

36 Relying on a rookie to be…

In reply to by RickD

Relying on a rookie to be able to play a full 17-game NFL season when he's started exactly 17 total games at the college level (in 3 years!) such that you don't need a good, viable backup who can be a starter is... a decision, I guess.

Can't say it's a good decision, but... it's a decision.

Cam is getting cut so he can be picked up by another team and possibly start somewhere.

Oh, I love the fact that you're phrasing it such that it sounds that it's altruistic and oh-so-beneficial to Cam, and not because Newton has a $1.5M guaranteed salary with offset language. They're releasing him in the hopes that someone else picks up his salary, not out of any hope for Newton to go find a nice place with flowers and puppies.

41 The problem with Newton is…

The problem with Newton is that you can't count on him to be a reliable backup or starter at this point. 

His play level is mediocre, he keeps getting hurt, he needs an almost completely different playbook than Hoyer/Mac, and he clearly doesn't seem to be able to follow the NFL's covid protocol. They've had repeated issues with him seemingly not getting that he's supposed to be protecting himself. 

He's a gigantic risk, and he's not good enough to justify that. 

56 Plus, to be honest, if you…

Plus, to be honest, if you release him on good terms ("we're letting you go so you can catch on with another team before the season starts" - ha, you're funny) it's practically a win-win. If someone else picks him up, cool, you get his salary offset. If no one picks him up, there's a QB who was with you in the offseason you can call and bring back if you need him basically for free.

 

188 yes to all this

I'm optimistic about Mac Jones being able to play the whole season.  And I think that the choice to cut Cam instead of keeping him around as the #2 was a "mutual decision".  I think Cam is the kind of guy who wants to start or he'll retire.  

43 I don't think it's as…

I don't think it's as spiteful an action as you are making it out to be.

Once they drafted Mac Jones, everyone knew it was a matter of when not if. That when turned out to be week 1, which meant Cam was headed for the bench role. I have to wonder if Cam himself would have preferred getting released and having a chance at a starting role somewhere else vs hanging on as a backup to a rookie QB. 

I'm not saying Belichick did it as a favor to Cam, but given that he wasn't going to be the starter, this was probably the best move for both sides

52 I'm not saying it's spiteful…

I'm not saying it's spiteful at all! I'm just saying they're not doing it out of the kindness of their hearts. If Newton's cap hit for the year was fully guaranteed he'd almost certainly still be a Patriot.

Once they decided he wasn't valuable enough to keep, they could either trade him (meaning another team would have to pick him up at a $3M cap hit for the year, with $1.5M guaranteed) or release him (meaning another team could pick him up at a $750K cap hit but $1.05M salary - after week 1, none of that would be guaranteed). The fact that they didn't bother to talk to teams about trading him basically tells you they doubt anyone would pick him up at the $3M cap hit option.

Yeah, it's pennies and nickels in the grand scheme, but, y'know, pennies and nickels add up.

59 When I saw he was cut I…

When I saw he was cut I assumed the Patriots were saving 10+ million. But Cam was only getting paid five? That's backup money! And the Pats decided he's not even worth that. How far the mighty have fallen.

66 Well, he took a contract for…

Well, he took a contract for backup money that the Patriots could easily walk away from, and then since he refused to get vaccinated he just flat out handed them solid reasons to release him. He's not exactly convincing me he's the brightest bulb of the bunch.

82 To be clear, the part that…

To be clear, the part that doesn't make sense is the Patriots just going with Stidham and Hoyer (really Hoyer since Stidham's on PUP). I mean, cutting Newton is one thing. It's easy to say "okay, this guy's totally not worth it from a value perspective" but it's entirely different to look at that QB room and say "yah, we're okay."

It's not like Belichick just woke up today and was like 'think'n bout cuttin' Newton." They must've been considering this for a while, so seems kinda sketchy to rely on this as your plan.

88 I get that - but I'm not…

I get that - but I'm not sure keeping Cam makes that situation any better. He can't run the playbook they want to run.

I wouldn't be surprised to see them pick up another vet who is more of a traditional pocket passer.

96 Oh, Cam definitely wouldn't…

Oh, Cam definitely wouldn't make things better. The one thing that stands out to me is Minshew being traded to Philly. Now, if the Patriots had traded for him and cut Newton, declaring Jones the starter and letting Hoyer go, I literally would've been like "that's a seriously good move."

114 Hoyer is a fantastic film…

Hoyer is a fantastic film guy and probably going to be a coach after he retires. He's also the first guy Mac seems to go to.   Hes worth the roster spot. 

 

But yeah, I'd love to see a more talented backup with Stidham being both hurt and probably terrible. 

162 Not necessarily "IR" - if…

Not necessarily "IR" - if you've got a vet that you've got a wink/nod deal with, it's smart to release them right around roster cuts just to protect an extra player from other teams grabbing up players. Once every team's got their roster and practice squad set, for instance, they're much less likely to pick someone new up. I mean, with Hoyer they could practically leave him off the roster until just before game day. Total shenanigans, but, y'know, it's New England - rules are checkboxes to tick. Doesn't cost anything to play games like this.

189 Minshew

Reportedly Minshew wants to be somewhere he has at least a shot at starting.

Maybe that's not true in Philly?  It was just a rumor so I could be wrong.  

I believe the Pats either already have or will pick up a third QB, since Stidham had back surgery recently and could not possible return before December.  Personally I think if Mac Jones gets injured, that's it for any playoff hopes.  Some teams might be able to make the playoffs with a backup QB, but not this year's Patriots.  

202 I think mostly he was saying…

In reply to by RickD

I think mostly he was saying "I don't want to be in Jacksonville."

But really, I think he's got equal chance of starting in both New England and Philly. Again, the guy's only got 17 starts in his entire college career. Missing a game or two this season is practically the default expectation.

210 but not this year's Patriots.

In reply to by RickD

I'm not sure I agree - Newton was awful for most of last year, and half the defense opted out, and the team still won 7 games.

 

I don't think it would be hard to get Newton-level production out of Hoyer or some other vet. I mean, -20% DVOA is really bad - and isn't hard to replace. They got significantly better than that out of Jacoby Brisset as a rookie pressed into starting (and he's been AWFUL outside of NE). 

They won't be a favorite by any means, but the overall talent level on the team seems significantly higher than it was last year, and we're talking about 2 or 3 more wins to be in the mix. Thuney is clearly a huge loss - and Gilmore is a big concern - but they're much upgraded at several position groups. 

The defensive front 7 are significantly better, offensive skill positions are better across the board, and I'm not sure QB production can get worse. 

131 ...the part that doesn't…

...the part that doesn't make sense is the Patriots just going with Stidham and Hoyer (really Hoyer since Stidham's on PUP)

Really no one, as Hoyer's just been cut! Now that's crazy. Wait, are the Patriots trading for Watson?

190 Hoyer was cut

Hoyer was cut for roster size manipulations relating to the PUP list.  He's already be brought back in the fold.

Put it this way: the Pats were less worried about another team swooping in to grab Hoyer than they were about 50+ other guys.  

67 You don't have to be that…

You don't have to be that cynical about it.  They could have easily traded Newton for a conditional pick to a team like the Cowboys, or even gasp the Jets.  They released him, and he can choose his situation.

70 They could have easily…

They could have easily traded Newton for a conditional pick to a team like the Cowboys, or even gasp the Jets.

Pretty sure wherever Cam Newton lands this year (if anywhere), he ain't gonna be making $3M/yr. The whole "Patriots didn't even call around about a Newton trade" thing is silly - if the Patriots don't have a good idea of what other teams think of their players, they ain't doing their jobs.

75 I'm confused.  You don't…

I'm confused.  You don't think another team would have traded for Newton on that micenuts contract?  One year for an insignificant (for a QB) salary?

I think your last sentence is exactly the point I'm making.  The Patriots probably do know how Newton is perceived by other teams.  I think they do know they could have traded him.  And I think that Belichick knows that treating a veteran "right" has more value when considering future free agency than a late-ish draft pick.

The same thing happens when a team cuts a veteran early during the cutdown period.  They don't have to -- they're extending the player the courtesy of hitting the market before it gets too crowded.  These things are noticed by agents.

76 I'm confused.  You don't…

I'm confused.  You don't think another team would have traded for Newton on that micenuts contract?  One year for an insignificant (for a QB) salary?

Yup. That's exactly what I'm saying.

(edit: to be clear, there are other concerns there: Newton's contract has pretty large escalators in it as well, so there would've been good reason for teams to back away from trading for him especially considering they'd almost certainly infer that the Patriots would be releasing him.)

80 Plus of course if you are…

Plus of course if you are going to trade for him, you have to like him for not only the ~$3M but for the 7th round pick as well. For a guy you know is on the chopping block and could be had for cheaper if you just wait a few days. It honestly would have been more of a shock if he had been traded IMVHO: that would require someone to be dead sure that 1) he even is a meaningful upgrade on their backup QB, and 2) it was worth a premium to ensure they got him, specifically. Teams meeting 1) are few and far between, and his unreliability kills 2) dead.

84 I'd be shocked if a team…

I'd be shocked if a team decided that a late pick is worth more than getting Cam Newton without having to compete with the rest of the League.  Cam is a huge upgrade for several teams in the league at QB2.  I can't imagine let's say...Jerry Jones thinking to himself....Huh.  Belichick called me to offer me Newton for a conditional 6th round pick.  Newton has a one-year deal for 1.5 million pluls incentives.  My backup quarterback is...Cooper Rush.  My starter is coming off a serious injury.  No...we're good here.

90 Cam is a huge upgrade for several teams in the league at QB2.

Is he? He's been a -20% DVOA guy for the last couple years, he's unvaccinated, can't figure out the covid protocol, and he's an enormous personality.

I don't want an enormous personality as my QB2. I don't want leadership from that position - especially if I've got a young QB at QB1. 

I also don't want a QB2 who is doing everything he can to get the rest of the QB room sick.

 

I think he's going to have a really tough time finding a spot.

95 Newton has a deal for $3…

Newton has a deal for $3 million plus incentives, not $1.5M. 1.5M is his (guaranteed) base salary, but if you want him on the team the whole year, it's $3M as he's got 1.5M in roster bonuses.

without having to compete with the rest of the League.  

There's gonna be like, one or two teams, at most, in the mix for Newton. You're not talking about a serious amount of competition here. And really, if you don't land him - big whoop. He's not going to be remotely useful to you for 5-6 weeks at the least.

I wouldn't be shocked if he doesn't get signed until after week 1.

191 easily

They could have easily traded Newton for a conditional pick to a team like the Cowboys  (emphasis added)

Not sure about the "easily" there.  There wasn't much demand for Cam last Summer, and his play in 2020 hardly did much to improve that.

10 Wow wth, Cam Newton is cut??…

Wow wth, Cam Newton is cut???? 

I don't remember the last time a player went from slated starter to out of the team in a matter of weeks. I guess there are examples involving off the field conduct but I never got any sense of that from Cam. Just very very weird

 

I don't know what the future holds for Cam, but his career downfall has been ridiculous. It's reminding me less of McNabb and more of Duante Culpepper, who went from really good to unplayable in a heartbeat.

32 I suspect

I suspect Belichick and Cam are on the same page there.  In theory, Cam could get picked up by a team that needs somebody who can start right away.  Or maybe he wants to retire?  

Cam as Mac's backup might have been problematic.  

20 You could see it coming once…

You could see it coming once Belichick declined to name his week 1 starter.  I was surprised by that hesitation, as Newton was effective at the start of last year and I expected Belichick to see (a) what he could get out of Newton in September and (b) whether his defense was good enough to give the shot at a playoff run.  Then based on those two things he'd decide when or if to switch to the rookie later in the year.

Once he started to hesitate about whether Newton should start week 1, the rest seems logical.  Get Jones lots of playtime and see if he develops, avoid the distraction of whether he'll get pulled for the veteran former MVP after a bad game or quarter, and figure out if he's your guy going forward or not.

Good thing for Jones is NE's OL will presumably be solid enough that he'll have decent protection as he adjusts to the speed of real NFL games.  Bad thing is that all of those preseason completions to receivers with 2 yards of separation are gone until next year:  against starting NFL D's, NE's receiving corps isn't likely to generate 2 yards of separation over a full game, let alone on any given pass.  Hope Jones has fun with all those check downs to RBs a la Brady 2019.

 

 

23 I doubt it dropped half a…

I doubt it dropped half a win.  Cam had many excuses last year....late signing, new system, COVID, subpar threats...but he never really looked good after September.  If Jones is the more accurate QB (and I don't know if that's true, although I suspect it is), better reads and better accuracy into tight windows will help with those sub-standard WRs.  Where the Pats will miss Cam the most will be inside the 5 yard line, as he was the most effective short-yardage runner they had.

28 Don't know if the mean…

Don't know if the mean expected wins has changed much, but the tails on the range of possible have gotten a lot fatter.

With healthy Cam Newton on the field - last reported sighting Sept 2020 but now, presumably, officially extinct - NE had the chance to create some mismatches and move the ball.  With a rookie pocket passer and probably the weakest WR corp in football (is JAX worse? HOU? top 3 worst, anyway), they're going to need Jones to show HOF-worthy skills or benefit from a lot of short fields to score points.  Sometimes rookie QBs do warrant the preseason hype, so a good NE O this year is not impossible, but then neither is the season turning into a total disaster.

182 Oh he has some talent, and…

In reply to by JimZipCode

Oh he has some talent, and good measurables.  I think he's fine as a WR2 or WR3, but being WR1 is asking too much.  And he has yet to stay healthy for an entire season.

92 I don't know how you can…

I don't know how you can watch the last couple years of Cam, including preseason football this year, and assume that he'll be able to 'create mismatches and move the ball'. 

He's not fast anymore. And he's not accurate. And he's never been able to throw guys open. 

Mac is probably going to make a ton of mistakes this year, but he's already a better QB than Cam is at this point. He can actually make progressions. He's accurate. He's got a quick release. 

176 Plus

Mac is already a better QB than Cam is at this point. He can actually make progressions. He's accurate. He's got a quick release. 

Plus Mac will throw it exactly where Belichick & Josh McDaniels tell him too.

38 OL key

Well, they get Miami and their weak run defense in week 1. Miami's oline looks bad and they rely totally on their CBs to cover tight and blitz packages which usually leaves large running lanes. They just cut the linebacker that was suppose to help stop the run game so IDK. I don't see how Tua is light years ahead of Jones at this point and at least Jones hasn't had his entire WR corps sitting out injured all summer. Miami fans have no idea what the offense is going to look like because almost all the WR that played this summer are being cut as the starters are declared "healthy". It's the battle of the rebuilding projects with "wild card" hopes on the line. I assume Cam's cut moves the betting line, as running QBs give Miami fits. 

22 I don't remember the last…

I don't remember the last time a player went from slated starter to out of the team in a matter of weeks. I guess there are examples involving off the field conduct but I never got any sense of that from Cam. Just very very weird

The last time I can recall something like this happening at QB is when the Jags dropped David Garrard in 2011. (Can't believe it's been ten years!) The only other instance like it that I can immediately recall is when the Jags made Garrard their starter in similar fashion, unceremoniously dumping Byron Leftwich just before the start of the season.

26 Yeah, this is nuts, and…

Yeah, this is nuts, and particularly considering the quality of the QB room behind Jones.  I get that you don't want to pressure a rookie too much by having someone looking over his shoulder as everybody yells for the veteran to take over, but it's not like Cam is some beloved local icon fans all love.  He had one so-so year, and nobody's going to be that excited about him.  Do wonder how much of the most recent COVID test screwup was a proverbial final straw on a pile of other things that had been gradually pissing off Belichick and the rest of the organization.

Still, shocking as hell.  Cam wasn't great last year, but he wasn't "cut at end of training camp" bad.

46 I think the Covid stuff is a…

I think the Covid stuff is a big part of it. 

I think Cam lost the competition and BB just decided that between the significantly different offense they need to run under him, the fact that he refuses to get vaccinated and can't seem to follow the protocols, and that given the difference in playstyles, there's not a ton he can teach Mac - that he's just not a great backup option. 

He got Covid after he was seen out drinking with his friends during the season, late at night, in a restaurant, with no mask. Then he spent the entire season saying that Covid threw him off the whole season. 

And then he comes in this year, refuses to get vaccinated, misses a week of the preseason because he can't follow the protocols, and is just generally being a high risk. That's the sort of shit BB generally doesn't tolerate. 

31 The only instance I can…

The only instance I can recall of a starter leaving the team very quickly was in 2007, with the Browns (no surprise!). Charlie Frye was the starter in game 1, struggled, and was benched for Derek Anderson. Frye was traded two days after the game to the Seahawks. 

177 Norv

in 2001, Jeff George was the starter for WFT in Weeks 1 and 2, and then was outright cut before Week 3. He never played another down in the NFL.

Norv Turner has talked about how Danny wanted him to start Jeff George.  He & the audience chortled at it.

203 The Teamsters lost those…

In reply to by JimZipCode

The Teamsters lost those games by scores of 30-3 and 37-0, with a total of 183 passing yards across the two games. I'm guessing there weren't a lot of tears shed when George got cut.

11 Wooooow

Part of the reason why I didn't like the Cam re-signing. $3.6m dead for just an offseason. Completely avoidable.

Didn't think they'd outright cut him though. Not even the best backup? Stidham really? 

15 Well, it eliminates Jones…

In reply to by ImNewAroundThe…

Well, it eliminates Jones constantly looking over his shoulder, and the media and locker room crusading to start Cam.  If BB has decided that he's going to sink or swim with Jones, it's really the only move.

Brian Hoyer will be the backup.  He is who he's always been.

 

18 I guess.

Dont quite buy it bc everyone knows Jones is the future.

Hoyer over Cam is bad though. At least Stidham has youth...or something.

24 Hoyer's been around long…

In reply to by ImNewAroundThe…

Hoyer's been around long enough that maybe he's developed some mentoring skills?  Not necessarily on the field stuff, I also mean all the off the field things an NFL QB has to deal with.  Even if he hasn't, Belichick loves role players and Hoyer, it seems, is a good QB2 in Belichick's opinion.

As for Stidham, of all the guys who've been in NE's QB room over the past few years, he's definitely one of them. So, hey, warm body - show up to meetings on time, keep your mouth shut and we'll all just hope you never have to put on a helmet on Sundays.

29 Stidham is on the PUP

Apparently. 

Don't buy mentor skills either. What's his track record? People said the same thing about players like McCown and the best was like Darnold. 

Has to be vaccine related. Because I see nothing else in their track records. Playing or mentorship wise.

65 Derek Anderson was a help to…

Derek Anderson was a help to Josh Allen in that regard, and he's not any better than Hoyer.

 

The reality is that Hoyer can win you a game, but probably not multiple games. This is the situation with the backups on most of the teams in the NFL.

74 We're crediting Derek Anderson now?

For spending the last year of his career with Allens first (and worst)? 

Wow

But Hoyer doesn't even have that silly correlation with anyone. He's got...Johnny Manziel?

Call me crazy but the former MVP we allll expected to start the season for NE, has a higher probability to win than the older, slower, worse in just about every aspect, guy. 

Gotta be vaccine.

142 I am going to break my rule…

I am going to break my rule here and offer this.

I don't think your points overall are wrong. In fact, I agree with many of them. But the way you comport yourself is really not good. Clearly this isn't just a me problem. 

So here's me trying to hand over an olive branch. You can have your opinions. You can even believe in them so strongly that you think the other person is beyond delusional. I have, at times, felt that way about Pat. But I have respect for his intelligence; I know he is very smart, and so he's clearly coming to the opposite conclusion for a reason. 

Please try to give the benefit of the doubt and be respectful. 

146 You have a rule about not commenting

That's respectful? How long is that suppose to last? When you have supporters?

Also, sorry my tolerance for people turning a blind eye and making up excuse after excuse for the clear racial bias in the NFL, turns things
"disrespectful" (where your rule originated).

And if you can't tell, this is clearly starting to teeter in to that same category with Cam with people screaming about his ego. All they have to do is mention rap music like that one guy did the other day and we're full blown there.

We've got people giving Derek Anderson credit for Josh Allen for cryin out loud. I...I just don't know how people can miss the implication that only the Derek Andersons, Brian Hoyers, Josh McCowns of the world can be that but not Cam. I don't know how I'm suppose to phrase things in response to that in 2021. Plausible deniability is the go to fall back despite numerous evidence. Sorry, it affects me and family and I don't like it being waved away in the NFL. Not everything needs to be respected. 

Back to the embargo 

147 Welp. I tried.

Welp. I tried.

For the record I don't stop responding to people who disagree with me, or view my arguments as crazy, or misunderstand my arguments. 

I stopped responding to you because you basically intimated that my arguments were invalid because I was white. Then you demanded to know my race with respect to my arguments. And then added a final qualifier that my arguments would only be valid if I happen to be black.

150 See.

In reply to by theslothook

Back to the embargo until more support comes. A heartfelt response and somehow yet I fail. 

Cams not vaccinated and others are. It can be that simple. Jumpin through hoops about his skillset and ego...you don't even care what else I have to say anyway. Plausible deniability. 

I didn't demand anything though. I asked you and danced around it saying you wrote here before (implying I should guess by the name...not exactly the best way). 

Talk about respect. Didn't sympathize with how I felt. Just kept coming up with post facto reasons and weird intersections certain people couldn't get themselves into! Just like this Cam thing, it CAN be simple! 

152 Tone vs justice

The fact you care more about being polite than injustices...there's...something wrong with that, no? 

Sorry if you dont think that I am. Everyones got a different definition for that and if being called out because of sketchy things isn't the most polite...well back to the embargo until support arrives I suppose. Truly sorry, if it doesn't meet your standard. 

I just hope we stop coding Cams mental aptitude for mentorship! Especially since Hoyer, specifically, hasn't show...any! (even though we should know correlation =/= causation). Unless he tells us he asked for it, it very well could simply be he isn't vaccinated. We don't have to invent other reasons for Hoyer being chosen over him. 

194 People aren't questioning…

In reply to by ImNewAroundThe…

People aren't questioning Cam's mental aptitude because he's black. 

We're questioning Cam's mental aptitude because he just missed a week of preseason because he didn't follow some very simple rules while he was in the middle of losing a competition with a rookie. 

We're questioning it because he also missed a big chunk of the season last year because of covid, and complained that covid limited his ability to play - and STILL wasn't taking the covid rules seriously. 

We're questioning it because he thought it was a good idea to only get 3-4 hours of sleep a night during the season so that he could be seen all about Boston in clubs and resteraunts DURING THE MIDDLE OF A PANDEMIC.

We're questioning it because the Patriots had to gimp the hell out of their playbook last year for him, and they continued to do that through the the preseason, and one of the things the McDaniels said about giving Mac the job was that he already understood the offense better than Cam did. 

" Especially since Hoyer, specifically, hasn't show...any!"

If you don't follow teams, and don't keep track of locker room comments and that sort of thing,  you really shouldn't comment on stuff like this.

The entirety of camp and preseason what has been coming out of the Patriots locker room is that Mac always goes to Hoyer for help - because Hoyer is way better at reading film than Cam is, and way more willing to work with him. Even Cam was going to Hoyer for help. 

Hoyer has a long history of being known for being a great influence in the quarterback room - about being great at analysing film and being willing to teach.

 

205 This is about the aptitude for mentorship

Which Hoyer is being speculated as being better at, despite 0 evidence (and even 0 good correlations)! As much as you'd like to think the racial biases are being put aside, this speculation is used all the time for bad, old white QBs still hanging around (but not others).

We're questioning it because he thought it was a good idea to only get 3-4 hours of sleep a night during the season so that he could be seen all about Boston in clubs and resteraunts

Where is this hearsay coming from? You're really trying to make my point here?

the Patriots had to gimp the hell out of their playbook last year for him

What? Gimp? They aren't plays only he could run?

 McDaniels said about giving Mac the job was that he already understood the offense better than Cam did

Don't know where he said this. Nor are we talking about Mac but Hoyer now. And, aside, scheme to players not the other way around.  

If you don't follow teams, and don't keep track of locker room comments and that sort of thing,  you really shouldn't comment on stuff like this.

The entirety of camp and preseason what has been coming out of the Patriots locker room is that Mac always goes to Hoyer for help - because Hoyer is way better at reading film than Cam is, and way more willing to work with him. Even Cam was going to Hoyer for help. 

Hoyer has a long history of being known for being a great influence in the quarterback room - about being great at analysing film and being willing to teach.

Yet you provide no evidence but hearsay again. As if the results of Hoyers great film watching have leaked onto such greats as...Ryan Lindley? Not that they can't talk to each other but that's vital now going in the regular season so much they have to have Hoyer and his great potential for poor results if called upon? Attributing too much of, whoevers Jones backup is, to Jones probability to succeed or fail.  

And here's a report about Cam being open to being a backup. Kinda like...last year

A lot of digging for Brian freakin Hoyer. Doesn't need to be this galaxy brained. 

154 I think I was the one who…

I think I was the one who first lazily speculated that maybe mentoring might have been part of Belichick's reasons for preferring Hoyer as QB2 over Newton.  I wasn't consciously thinking about it from anything other than what I've heard about their personalities, but it is fair to point out that there may have been a racial bias to my speculation. 

Hoyer was never in the running for QB1, so there's no doubt in my mind that Belichick did not "keep" Hoyer (I'm looking through the Hoyer release silliness) and release Newton because he'd rather plug Hoyer in there if Jones flames out or gets injured.  So I was looking for other reasons why Belichick would prefer Hoyer as QB2.

Stepping back now, I can see why this situation could be viewed as an example of racial profiling. Would Newton really not be a good fit for the QB2 role or does he just not fit the physical stereotype of the studious white QB clipboard holder?  Is this a situation where one guy keeps his job and the other guy loses it because one's white and the other's black?

I'm still not sure that Newton would be good in the role of supportive veteran backup for similar reasons that I couldn't see Aaron Rogers being a good QB2.  But there may still be a racial aspect to my (and possibly Belichick's) thinking and it's worth taking a moment to reflect on that.

155 Thanks for admitting such things

It didn't hit me right away that he wasn't vaccinated and they were. That made more sense than anything else that has been brought up. There really doesn't need to be anything else to it. Unless Cam asked for it. We don't even have to get into any other biases. That'd be a very valid reason for Bill! 

Touching on their personality, despite not knowing them, I don't think being a backup would be out of his character. He seems like one of the few long time starters that would be down. Maybe not re-sign next year but for just a year. He did spend two years behind, another white QB, in Tebow. Then seemly perhaps signing up for a 3rd before facing expulsion at UF. Then there's the fact that the deals he took with NE were kinda humbling with the amount he was being compensated with, despite being a former MVP.

Rodgers has been entrenched and highly regarded, even more so than Newton. If you found a better option, you'd surely try to keep him as QB2 than outright release him (and he wasn't asking for a release) and dropoff to a guy that doesn't even have a silly correlation like Derek Anderson, no? Rodgers is being upsurped and we know he doesn't exactly want to be there if things don't change. I think we'd here about it from Cam from one leak or another if that were so. 

But unfortunately Cam did this to himself. Whatever the reason is for not being vaccinated. We'll see if this is the end of the line for him. 

198 Would Newton really not be a good fit for the QB2 role...

One of the issues with Newton as a QB2 is that he's a loud, boisterous personality. He's one of those people who walks into a room and he's immediately the center of attention. He's just magnetic - pretty much every team he's been on his teammates love him - and that works great as a QB1. 

As a QB2, with a 22 year old rookie QB1, having a magnetic personality and thinking you should still be a starter is a problem. Jones needs to be a leader in that locker-room, and Cam makes that harder because he's such a dominant leader.

And that doesn't even get into the fact that there's pretty much no overlap between what Cam does well and what Mac needs to learn. He's just a really poor fit. 

99 The hyperbole in this thread…

The hyperbole in this thread is kinda hilarious. The burnt husk of Cam Newton brings nothing to the table for NE.

I'm just saying that Hoyer knows how to prepare for a game, something that Allen gave credit to Anderson for teaching him in his rookie year. Jones is still a rookie, last I checked, so it's no-pressure value.

That's not going to make Jones a success, but it's something that an experienced guy can bring that doesn't require Newton's outsized ego or belief that rules don't apply to him. Also, the guy I saw in NE after COVID last year didn't look any BETTER than Hoyer. I'm no huge fan of Hoyer, but...

122 Oh wow

He gave him credit. Shoot. Only Anderson could've done that. And only Hoyer can do that but not Cam! Good thing I asked for Hoyers examples of mentorship!

Oh 

Newton's outsized ego

Such great rhetoric. 

the guy I saw in NE after COVID last year didn't look any BETTER than Hoyer.

If you couldn't tell the difference between Newtons .01 EPA/play and Hoyers -.241, you're letting other things affect your judgement.

157 You, sir, are the very…

In reply to by ImNewAroundThe…

You, sir, are the very definition of a troll. You're simply looking for an argument, when one isn't there. 

But I'll play, anyway.

I agree his vaccine status is probably a major factor, but if he had played better than Jones he would still be there, and they would have dealt with it. All of these other points are merely ancillary. Given that he's not the starter, they don't need the headache at all, since Hoyer is perfectly fine for losing games, which is pretty much what Cam's shown he's capable of for the last four years.

178 Facts = troll

Amazing. 

We have all moved on from him over Jones. That wasn't what we were talking about anymore. We were talking about Hoyer and you couldn't tell the difference between them despite being on the same team. 

Oh look the coded "headache." Good talk

192 Hoyer

Hoyer lost a lot of credibility as a backup with his brain farts in the Chiefs' game last year.  I think his clock mismanagement dropped him behind Stidham on the depth chart.

I'll tolerate some kind of subpar behavior from a backup QB.  Losing track of the clock/timeout situation?  No.  

39 Stidham

In reply to by ImNewAroundThe…

Stidham just had back surgery.  I would expect anything from him anytime soon.

If Mac Jones gets injured, I suspect Hoyer would not be the starter for very long.  But here's to hoping that doesn't happen.

47 "Hoyer over Cam is bad…

"Hoyer over Cam is bad though"

It makes a ton of sense. 

Cam and Mac's skillsets are completely different. If you've watched any of the Patriots preseason, they've basically been running a different offense when Cam is on the field than when Mac is. With Cam they run, throw a lot of screens and misdirection stuff underneath, and use a lot of rollouts and such. They're running different protection schemes. 

With Mac on the field, the offense basically looks like the offence that Brady ran (simpler, of course). They're running a very different playbook than when Cam is on the field. 

If you want Cam to be an effective backup, you need to spend a lot of time practicing plays that you're probably never going to run in a game because your starter simply can't run them. That's wasted time, and that's an enormous investment for a backup QB who was one of the worst starters in the NFL last year. 

Hoyer is worse than Cam - but he can run the patriots offense. 

53 Hoyer as QB2 clearly makes…

Hoyer as QB2 clearly makes sense in Belichick's mind, but I don't think it's because he believes Hoyer will perform better on the field if pressed into duty.  The last time Hoyer (and Stidham) had to play, the results were ugly.  Newton as a change up would be far better, to my mind - even if you call the playbook differently for him, the opposition defense has to defend it differently, too.

I really don't think this has anything to do with who Belichick thinks will give them the best chance to win if QB2 has to take the field.  

I also don't think it's vaccination related, either.  I still say Belichick is all about finding the right guys for the right roles and doesn't see Newton as a good fit as QB2.

62 "I really don't think this…

"I really don't think this has anything to do with who Belichick thinks will give them the best chance to win if QB2 has to take the field.  "

We're talking past each other. 

Its not about winning when QB2 has to take the field. Its about not wasting copious amounts of practice time running plays that QB1 can't run because he's a pocket passer. 

Especially when QB2 keeps doing stupid shit that gets him effectively suspended. 

68 It doesn't really

Having someone different should be the goal not someone who also can't run and is overall worse than a rookie who was QB5 in his class. 

Weve literally just seen Payton do it with Taysom and Brees and Pederson Hurts and Wentz. It's not that hard for a veteran coach. 

This is also a silly notion since Cam has been on the team over a YEAR now. 

83 "Having someone different…

In reply to by ImNewAroundThe…

"Having someone different should be the goal not someone who also can't run and is overall worse than a rookie who was QB5 in his class. "

If your first priority is to win games this year, sure. 

If your first priority is to not waste a ton of practice time training the offensive line and receivers to run plays that the starting quarterback can't run, no. 

As soon as you decide Mac is the starter, basically every decision this year has to be made with his development in mind. Cam Newton being on this team is a hinderance to Mac's development. Hoyer is not. 

98 Dude

They literally already know how. You act like they're gonna spend 99% practicing solely with the backups. 

Cam is a hindrance because he's different but Hoyer isn't because...he also cant run like Jones? Despite Hoyer having similar air yards to Cam.

Ok bud.

116 Cam is a hindrance because…

In reply to by ImNewAroundThe…

Cam is a hindrance because he can't run plays empty backfield, he can't do a proper dropback, and he's shitty in the film room. 

 

All things Hoyer is really good at. 

 

Hoyer has also been 1-on-1 studying film with Mac. 

 

Hoyer's also not a loud, brash personality who literally can't go two minutes without being the center of attention. Cam is. 

 

 

Cam is an incredibly shitty backup QB for a pocket passer. There's literally nothing he can teach Mac because every part of the game that relies on technique or study - he's bad at. 

The things that made Cam a viable quarterback are things you absolutely do not want Mac doing because he's not athletic enough.  

 

Hoyer is a shitty quarterback - but his mechanics are good. He's a natural teacher, and he has actual things he can teach Mac.  

127 Lol

Where do you get your info? 

I think I've seen enough out of you that you've got something personal against Cam. 

Cam = stupid. Don't give him money.

Hoyer = brilliant. Keep giving him money. 

Being so blatant.

199 Yes, I think a guy who can't…

In reply to by ImNewAroundThe…

Yes, I think a guy who can't be bothered to get the Covid travel policy straight and loses a competition with a rookie in part because of that, and most likely ends his career, is stupid. Especially when he showed a pattern of risky behavior last year and missed significant time because of that. 

He was given every opportunity to seize the starting job and could not stop doing stupid shit that caused him to miss football.

Cam Newton is not a good enough quarterback that I'm risking him getting my QB room sick having him there.  

37 $3.6m dead for just an…

In reply to by ImNewAroundThe…

$3.6m dead for just an offseason.

Technically $2.1M definitely dead, with the remaining $1.5M TBD. The $1.5M salary has offset language, so if another team picks him up (heh) they'll reduce the Patriots' commitment to him.

44 even

Even $3.5M is hardly noticeable as a cap hit for a QB.  And now the Pats have a QB on his rookie contract for possibly as many as three years.  (Yes, I know they could go four, but if he turns out to be the answer, they'll renegotiate before the final year.) 

Mac Jones's cap hit for 2021 is only $2.83 M.  Even if you add in Cam's dead money and the cap hits for Hoyer and Stidham, the Pats are doing pretty well for the QB position.

54 (Yes, I know they could go…

In reply to by RickD

(Yes, I know they could go four, but if he turns out to be the answer, they'll renegotiate before the final year.) 

Teams don't really strip off the final rookie year, they just tack on additional years. So it really is 4 years. And even that 5th year is a 'smoothed' path to a proper QB contract unless you really kick butt and hit multiple Pro Bowls.

Even if you add in Cam's dead money and the cap hits for Hoyer and Stidham, the Pats are doing pretty well for the QB position.

Oh, absolutely. But hey, saving pennies and nickels adds up. No reason for them to pay Newton any more money than they have to if they don't think he's worth it.

13 Ah Ben Braden.

Homie was getting so much hype in his like 6th offseason. Glad they realized his ceiling wasn't that high.

RIP to ESB. Meanwhile he's younger brother showed out enough in Detroit.

112 They won't be missed

In reply to by ImNewAroundThe…

I'm not surprised both were cut. Neither was impressive this preseason. EQ can't stay healthy and doesn't play special teams, so he's going to have a difficult time catching on with another team unless Detroit wants him to keep his brother company. 

207 ESB did play a little bit of ST.

Don't think it's that hard of a skill to learn. He's athletic enough.

And his rookie year was more efficient than MVS but on slightly less volume. Injuries may have slowed down.

16 As a Colts fan, at first…

As a Colts fan, at first blush I would think Cam would be worth a look. Of all these reclamations he feels like the one with the best odds of a rebound. He was a former MVP after all.

The problem is at this point you can't just bring him in and wait to potentially start him because there's this media circus that follows. To that end I'm lukewarm now about potentially picking him up

42 Hmm...

Elite but not best QB in the NFL.  Hard to look away from 35 TDs passing + 10 TDs rushing. 

FO thinks Carson Palmer was the best passing QB in 2015.  But the hype train started early for Cam that year.  I guess Brady was the other candidate, but he suffers from overfamiliarity and the fact that voters like spreading the honors around.  

But yeah, without qbwins Cam would not have been considered.

48 The other issue is that we…

In reply to by RickD

The other issue is that we're now looking at 5 straight years of very mediocre performance from Cam. The only thing that was really different last year was that the TD numbers went down - the rate stats were consistent with the last couple years. 

IE, this is probably who he is - and a 'rebound' to 2015 performance levels is really unlikely. His game has always been dependant on his running ability opening up holes in the defense - and hes not fast anymore. 

73 And the other other issue is…

And the other other issue is that the guy's got a certain kind of stubborn stupid that's hard to get around.  It just isn't that difficult to meet COVID protocols.  It's really not that hard to just get vaccinated already.  Shoot, I wouldn't want that on my team.

179 Nonsense

He is a former MVP, but he wasn't a deserving MVP.

That's straight bullshit.

Cam & JJ Watt led the league in PFR's Approximate Value that year.  Russ was 3rd, a couple points behind them.  4400 yds and led the league in combined TDs (and TD%).  Dragged the Panthers to the SB.

Carson Palmer had a nice season too, throwing to Larry Fitz & John Brown & Michael Floyd & David Johnson.  Tom Brady did ok with Gronk + Edelman + Amendola + James White.  (They lost to the Broncos one game before Carolina did.)  But that's every year, that there are multiple legit MVP candidates.

51 I had the same thought for…

I had the same thought for about 30 seconds, but I suspect Newton doesn't want to sign somewhere to be a backup. I wouldn't be surprised if he'd rather stay unsigned and hope to get a call as a mid-season replacement for an injured starter instead of just signing to be on a team week 1.

If Wentz gets hurt (or plays like he did last year), the Colts might be interested. Neither of their backups looked like a long term answer during the preseason. Other then that, I don't see him signing with the Colts.

72 Why would there be a media…

Why would there be a media circus? He’s been pretty classy in NE (except for the vaccination thing). 

He was the 31st best QB last year by DYAR and DVOA. Considering missed time and the quality of his supporting cast last year, I’d say that puts him around 24-26th in actual playing skill. By all accounts, he looked improved and healthier during the pre-season. Once he’s up to speed in a new offense, he’s likely to produce as a low mid-tier QB for someone.

Jones is potentially better, playing better, and earned the starting job for the Patriots. But I totally get why Newton would think he should be starting somewhere, and might prefer that to being Jones’ backup. Any team that loses their starter to injury this year should consider hiring him.

A few teams might consider him right now… but probably won’t, because changing QBs this late is not easy to do.

17 Cam a vaccine cut?

I wonder how much refusing to be vaccinated played into Newton's release.

With the new protocols unvaccinated players are at rather higher risk of unexpectedly becoming unavailable.

And that's in addition to Newton being unvaccinated makes it more likely for other starters to get infected.

27 pick up where?

I don't think vaccine status caused the release.  Once Jones was drafted, Cam was out at some point.  That point just came faster than anyone anticipated.  But vaccine status didn't do him any favors about how long he got to hang around.  The real problem is that at this point, considering vaccine status, who might sign him.  He might be an upgrade at a couple of places, but why take a risk since he is probably 3 or 4 weeks from even competing somewhere.

34 Yeah, I think this was the…

Yeah, I think this was the major issue.  However, we don't know if Newton is actually vaccinated or not.  He did get tested away from NFL facilities, leading to him being put on the Covid list.

That said, I don't know if this was the best idea.  If he played like he played this preseason, Newton would get them them into the playoffs.  If Jones doesn't have a good season (and most rookies don't), Hoyer isn't going to help them much there.

49 He's absolutely unvaccinated…

He's absolutely unvaccinated. 

The NFL doesn't require vaccinated players to get tested for out of state travel. He got 'suspended' for using the wrong type of test and thinking it fit the protocol. 

71 And ultimately, this could…

And ultimately, this could be a huge hurdle in him getting a new job.  He'd have to quarantine after signing, and then a team has to make a conscious decision to bring an unvaccinated player into the QB room, putting other QBs at risk of being a close contact during his inevitable next positive test.

 

The single best thing Cam can do to play football this year is to get vaccinated.  Today.

77 I know some people who…

I know some people who refuse to get vaccinated because of health concerns. Fair or unfair, I can at least understand the logic and it's not directly costing them any money to remain unvaccinated.

I would love to know why Cam and others prefer to remain unvaccinated given the very real costs they may be incurring.

86 Generate more antibodies…

Generate more antibodies greatly reducing the chance of a second infection. Reduce the severity of another infection if he does get one, you know the same thing it does for anyone else. He likely only needs one dose instead of two, but the vaccine still matters.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/faq.html
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01609-4
https://apnews.com/article/science-health-coronavirus-pandemic-ad52011f4ca1853fad6eee41a7310c2e
https://www.pennmedicine.org/news/news-releases/2021/april/penn-study-suggests-those-who-had-covid19-may-only-need-one-vaccine-dose

 

87 You beat me too it,  and…

You beat me too it,  and thanks for posting the links.  I've already had to care of a handful of patients on their second round of COVID requiring hospitalization (none vaccinated BTW).  Yes Newton is young (like all NFL players) with no risk factors, but he's already claimed that his first bout affected his athletic performance.

113 Cam after COVID

The first 2 games he played after his bout with COVID, he looked barely awake, just short of pitiful.  After that he was very inconsistent, until week 17 against the nothing-to-play-for (or with) Jets.

183 Also Lamar

In reply to by SandyRiver

The first 2 games he played after his bout with COVID, he looked barely awake, just short of pitiful.  After that he was very inconsistent

Lamar looked a little ragged to my eye, post-covid last year.  Not as energetic between plays.  And famously he had cramping a couple weeks after his return.  (Arm cramps?)

I personally think his timing was shot after covid.  Seemed like he didn't complete anything "early" or in the quick game.  Everything was after 3 secs in the pocket and he'd taken a long, long look.  Or been flushed out and buying time.  And this was after being excellent & decisive in the quick game the year before.

I suspected he wasn't able to get the same volume of practice reps after the illness. Just sort of gutting it out the rest of the year.  Which went seven games, if you include the playoffs!

91 I *think* the original…

I *think* the original poster was implying that since he's already *had* COVID once, the vaccine risk is nothing in comparison. That being said - he's actually more likely to have side effects from the vaccine (since obviously the immune system's already primed to go bat$#!+ upon seeing it), but they're all mild. So unless he's super-scared of fatigue or something, not really much of a medical reason.

101 I re-read the initial post,…

I re-read the initial post, and you're probably right.  Although there is a slightly increased risk of myocarditis (heart inflammation) in young males, and blood clots, we're talking miniscule probabilities (and much lower than the risk of those things when actually getting COVID).  Also Guillan-Barre syndrome, allergic reactions, etc. can rarely happen.  Again, little reason to be worried if you're already saying you're "low-risk" and not worried about the virus, or saying "I won't live in fear", and all that other stuff.

103 A friend of mine's wife…

A friend of mine's wife developed a pretty rough autoimmune condition such that she cannot go to work anymore. Not only did this upend her life, but my friend's as well; who was considering switching jobs but now is remaining for the health insurance(one of the most pernicious pieces of public policy that we have). 

Obviously, it's specious to look at this one example and assign cause and effect, but it's still something to wrestle with.