Jaguars Hiring Doug Pederson as Head Coach

Newly Hired Jacksonville Jaguars HC Doug Pederson
Newly Hired Jacksonville Jaguars HC Doug Pederson
Photo: USA Today Sports Images

NFL Super Bowl - The Jacksonville Jaguars are hiring Doug Pederson as head coach, per ESPN's Adam Schefter.

Pederson went 42-31-1 and made three playoff appearances in five seasons as head coach of the Philadelphia Eagles, winning Super Bowl LII in a 41-33 victory over New England with Nick Foles at quarterback. 

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38 comments, Last at 07 Feb 2022, 9:53am

2 I love how Shad Khan makes…

I love how Shad Khan makes the Eagles/Jaguars comparison as "oh, he led that franchise in search of its first world championship, he can do the same here." Yeah, slight difference coming into an organization that'd been solidly above .500 and the Jaguars. Philly was a ~55% team for the decade prior to Pederson's hiring. The Jaguars are a 26% team over the past decade (jeez, I had to double check that).

This'll be really interesting. I have my doubts it'll work out.

18 Choosing endpoints is fun!…

Choosing endpoints is fun!

Sure, the Eagles had some good past history, but most of that was long past when Pederson was hired. They were coming off a 7-9 season, and had gone 31-33 in the past four seasons before Pederson was hired (with only one playoff appearance) as Andy Reid burned out and Chip Kelly slowly decimated the roster. You're also ignoring that, although the Jaguars have been terrible, they have a potential franchise QB in place, which the Eagles didn't have when Pederson arrived.

I have my doubts as well, because coaching hires seem to be a crapshoot and Pederson burned out in Philly rather quickly after his Super Bowl run. But I don't think you told the whole story.

30 Really, the reason I went…

Really, the reason I went long-term is because the Eagles didn't turn over their front office much at all. Roseman had been there since 2000 and a GM since 2010. They had absolute loads of talent and a long track record of solid player evaluation and good player/front office interactions.

The Jaguars... don't. I mean, Pederson brings legitimacy to the coaching staff (he's not a crock of a hire like Meyer was) but that team's miles away from a Super Bowl.

26 I super-dare you to find an…

I super-dare you to find an endpoint that makes the Jaguars look good. You took the Eagles down what, 6-7 percentage points? Whoop de doo.

The Eagles had multiple Hall of Fame level talents on the roster (Cox, Kelce, Peters). It's just a totally different class than the Jaguars.

31 "[they] had gone 31-33 in…

"[they] had gone 31-33 in the past four seasons before Pederson was hired (with only one playoff appearance)"

That's not a very good point, considering they went 10-6 but missed the playoffs in 2014 because the NFC South was so weak that season that the winner of it (CAR at 7-8-1) took up a playoff spot that could have gone to a better team.

At any rate, the Jags have one playoff appearance in the last 14 seasons. There is no good history there whatsoever outside of the Sacksonville defense (which has been totally dismantled since 2017).

37 Even the 4-12 season has…

Even the 4-12 season has caveats. You don't lose your son to suicide and be fine the rest of the season.

Philly's lines were both top-end. Jacksonville's got a few Pro Bowl level talents on defense. Their biggest asset is gobs of cap space, but that's Baalke, not Pederson.

3 Has Pederson interviewed…

Has Pederson interviewed with anyone else?  It has been 35 days since his first interview with the Jags and suddenly they hire him after two others that they interviewed (Nathaniel Hackett and Matt Eberflus) were grabbed by other teams and Harbaugh stays at Michigan.

Is this Khan/Baalke diddling and then panic jumping?  Or is this a good hire?

19 Baalke might be. I think…

Baalke might be. I think Khan is generally perceived as a good team owner, but Baalke is perceived as power-hungry based on his history with Harbaugh in San Francisco (and most new coaches would want to have some say in their GM anyway).

4 If only there were…

If only there were successful black coordinators who have worked themselves up the ranks to be in position for head coaching hires. 

5 If ONLY

They had been an OC under Andy Reid in KC for multiple years! Only then he'd get his first and second chance!

7 Not really fair in this…

Not really fair in this specific case. There's plenty of evidence that the NFL coaching community considered that job so toxic that no one currently with a job would trade for it. You could argue for Caldwell but I could easily understand him being picky there.

The Jaguars don't exactly have a foundation for success down there.

13 Correct

Realized that later. 

So the one job offered to a black coach so far is the most toxic job opening in, well, not years, since last year's Texans opening?

34 Well ...

... Miami almost made the playoffs each of the past two years and have an arguably strong nucleus of players in place.

Oh, wait ...

6 An interesting subplot about…

An interesting subplot about these hires. So far, out of all the vacancies filled, all but one has come from the offensive side of the ball. And seeing Fangio getting fired for basically not developing a QB( not really sure he had a chance with what he was given), it made me realize that unless the football gods do you a solid, you are on borrowed time; something even Pete Carrol was candid enough to admit. 

11 Yeah, and one of the teams…

Yeah, and one of the teams with the greatest need of QB development (the Bears) were the one team to hire a DC. It could work out, but it puts a huge amount of pressure on the new OC (Getsy) and QB coach (Janocko).

14 This is not a rigorous…

This is not a rigorous analysis at all, just me passing the time while shopping at Costco.

Going over it in my head, I don't think there's much evidence to suggest that the hiring of an offensive or defensive coach materially affects whether the quarterback in question develops. Here I'm referring to quarterbacks that are still unknowns by the time the coach in question arrives, not players like Justin Herbert for example.

In fact lots and lots of defensive-minded head coaches come to mind. Mike Smith, Ron Rivera, Anthony Lynn, Pete Carroll, Chuck Pagano, Sean McDermott... etc etc. 

 

 

23 I was just going over recent…

I was just going over recent examples. Its funny but I used to be one of those fans who vociferously blamed the coach whenever the team suffered an ugly playoff loss. Its a reminder of just how blind we fans can be during the good times as well as the fact that not everyone gets to be a dynasty. That said, I was also especially happy for Dungy; who had overcome his own set of post hoc narratives about why he couldn't win the big one(too nice, didn't use a bullhorn to motivate his players, etc etc). 

15 It's funny how certain…

It's funny how certain coaches get credited for QB development, while proven QB whisperers like Jim Caldwell get little credit.

Before Jim Caldwell came to the Colts as a QB coach, Peyton Manning had a season with 26 TD-23 INT, 84 passer rating. With Caldwell as his QB coach for 7 seasons, he had 222 TD-INT, 100 passer rating, 3 MVP's. Despite turning Manning from Carson Palmer to the greatest QB in history, he never got credit for that. He wasn't getting job offers from other teams. Could you imagine if Baker Mayfield all of a sudden won 3 MVP's. His QB coach would be considered a genius.

 

Then Caldwell goes to the Ravens and wins a superbowl as an offensive coordinator with Joe Flacco.

He goes to the Lions next and gets Matthew to his only Pro Bowl season to date.

 

That's 3 1st round QB's developed by Caldwell but I have never heard anyone refer to him as an Offensive genius.

17 I don't want this post to…

I don't want this post to read as a bashing against Caldwell as a future head coaching candidate and especially it shouldn't be read into the broader discussion of African American head coaches. What I write below is strictly about Caldwell with regards to Peyton Manning and his work with Qbs.

How much you want to give credit to Caldwell for Peyton Manning is a bit of an unknown. Its a similar point of discussion for some of his coordinators as well. But consider prior Manning in 1999 and 2000; two seasons past his rookie year and before Caldwell got there. He finished 2nd and 1st in DVOA. Furthermore, what really damns Caldwell's reputation in my opinion was the abhorrent collapse of the 2011 Colts sans Manning. This stands in sharp contrast to other coaches who dealt with superstar qb injuries/departures. While undoubtedly getting worse, none to my mind fell to pieces quite like the Colts did.

Now to Baltimore. A look over the numbers before and during Caldwell's first season will show the offense basically stayed exactly the same between 2011 and 2012 - which was right about average. Joe Flacco himself basically stayed the same by DVOA. While whatever credit Caldwell deserves for their amazing run to the sb win, he probably shares some blame the next year when the Ravens collapsed and finished with the 2nd worst offense in football in 2013. And they finished first in variance that year so they were consistently terrible. 

Now, I didn't follow his tenure with the Lions much, but I certainly was pleasantly surprised by his performance there and found his firing curious considering how much relative success they had compared to prior iterations. So for sure,  he deserves another shot but tying his credentials to Manning's success is an overreach in the same way that's true for many(all?) of Manning's coordinators. 

 

28 While Stafford may still…

While Stafford may still have his warts, he definitely got much better during Caldwell’s tenure.  Specifically his footwork/mechanics, and turnovers.  That’s something Caldwell and his staff specifically worked on.

And regarding the 2011 Colts, I always thought Caldwell took a little too much heat for that collapse. When your starter gets injured, there’s a difference between being forced to play a reasonable backup and being forced to play someone like Curtis Painter.  But perhaps he and his coaching staff do deserve heat for not realizing Painter didn’t belong in the NFL.  But since Manning wanted all the practice reps, how could they tell?

32 While I don't agree that the…

While I don't agree that the hiring process with the head coaches is racist, I am surprised Caldwell hasn't gotten a job yet. He seems like a better candidate than many of the coordinators who were hired.

33 I'm not going to wade into…

I'm not going to wade into the racist versus not racist commentary. However, I was struck by an anecdote from Tony Dungy. He mentioned during one of his interviews that he was asked about his motivational style. Tony, with his typical touch of class, answered forthrightly that mutual respect, teaching, and love would build a character of a football team that had all the motivation they needed. He was told that this style of motivation would not work in the NFL. And pretty soon he got the reputation of being soft on players.

Many years later, the owner who had rejected Tony under that premise apologized to him and said it had completely altered his way of thinking.

I think this story illustrates that there's still a ton of groupthink within the NFL and it can be very hard to shake them.