Las Vegas Raiders Trade for WR Davante Adams

Irresponsible of the Raiders, probably, but you gotta love the effort and the AFC West has become super interesting all of a sudden. For the Packers, it made more sense to go all in and keep him, but if Adams wasn't playing ball it makes sense to get something for him. They really need to shore up the WR room, though.

Even for Adam's he has a better chance at a ring in Green Bay rather than trying to get out of the buzz saw that is the AFC. 

Forget the draft picks for a second. I was debating with Packers fans about the merits of handing over a huge contract to a 29-year-old receiver when receiver age curves suggest Adams has maybe one or at the most two more peak years left. 

That conundrum is more palatable when you don't have to fork over draft picks and you have an obvious ticking time clock with Aaron Rodgers on your roster.

With the Raiders, he's an obvious upgrade but the question is is it enough to justify the long-term contract consequences. The Raiders have a huge amount of cap space so maybe iy is, but to then fork over a huge draft haul is much worse.

Must confess I didn't notice the "Clippers" part till your post.

Somewhere, George Allen is smiling.

I said early on when he started his whining that this was about one thing: money. Hard to argue I was wrong.

... I think Gutekunst isn't good :)

But they might bring Cobb back! Also Mason Crosby sticking around!

I had been reserving judgement on Gute till he had more of a track record but I'm with you. Not been a huge fan. I may not have always agreed with Thompson's plan but it was pretty clear what it was and it was executed solidly for what it was. Thompson was solid with drafts and dealing with internal free agents but very poor with external free agents, but the philosophy of what the team was trying to be was clear and the players they went after fit without costing a premium.

So they moved to someone who doesn't seem to have a draft plan (has a few good picks, but there doesn't seem to be a plan with how to use the picks like Thompson had). He's done way better with external free agency, but the decisions on who to keep and who to let walk with internal free agency doesn't seem solid so far. If there is a plan I can't really figure it out beyond figuring Rodgers was gone after 2020. To try and be fair how much of that is tied to keeping a HoF QB with strong opinions happy after realizing he wasn't done is a factor. I can blame him for the cap situation that didn't leave them with enough flexibility to give Adams the money he wanted though. Thompson didn't saddle him with any crazy contracts or dead money, the cupboard was getting bare, yes but the money was still there. Gute's regime generated pretty much all of the cap issues (even if you give them a break on COVID).

I hope I'm proven wrong and a plan and execution emerge, I have no real hope for that.

We're still in the NFC North, we still have a HoF QB, we still have a coach who I think is above average (and may prove to be even better than that but again needs more time and we'll see what this season does). So yeah we'll still make the playoffs. If Favre could make Schreoder a 1000 yard receiver Rodgers can make Lazard do the same without a better option to throw to. So they'll still get the lottery ticket in the post season but with worse odds.

Exactly, turtling until Mahomes and Herbert retire isn't an option, you gotta fight back. The Dolphins taking Tua over him was a major butterfly effect lol

He gets the long term deal he quite reasonably thought was the highest priority, one the Packers could/would not offer him. The Packers, pretty reasonably, either took him at his word that he wouldn't play with the franchise tag, or thought having a completely disgusted player forced to play with it was a bad idea.

I kind of congratulate both parties for dealing with the abomination of the franchise tag in this manner.

(edit) I see it's been reported that the Packers offered something similar, maybe something better. Maybe that's true, maybe not, and if it is, maybe the Packers screwed things up by trying to use the FT as leverage. As you can tell, I really hate the FT.

Great post.  

Deep wr class, lots of drafts picks and less pressure on cap.  We have proven every year for 3 years We can win with out Adams.  Perhaps our 'window' closed a little this year (even though we are getting an all pro CB and numerous solid oline players back) but it certainly opened up more the next 2 years, and possibly further.

Our cap situation was getting worse every year and losing Adams greatly helps that.  In a vacuum losing Adams for a 1st and 2nd is a loss.  But when you factor in we can now possibly retain Douglas and tonyon and mvs, or maybe add a juju or a patterson, well I think in total we are far ahead.

Through many twists and turns, I agree that Gutekunst has built a really good roster. They wouldn't be in the position to go "all-in" if they hadn't rebounded so well from what the roster had fallen to in 2017-18. Credit to the new coaching staff for developing a lot of the young players, too.

It's extremely tough to lose Adams for sure. You can debate (as everyone is here and probably will for awhile) whether this was the right move to make philosophically given where the team is at right now, but it's not like 5 top-100 rookies can't make very meaningful contributions to the team over the next couple of seasons, assuming they do choose to hold on to all or most of their picks.

My major immediate concern with this trade is that the fact that the WR room is a black hole right now. Even aside from the fact that Adams was the 2nd best player on the team, this could become a major problem next season because he was leading one of the most important position groups, and one where they happened to have little depth behind him. They also badly need a TE who can contribute on passing downs. It was fun in that one game vs Atlanta in 2020 when LaFleur was putting 22 and even 13 personnel on the field and they still rolled up 320+ passing yards, but they need to re-shape this area of the roster very quickly to make sure it doesn't become an outsize drag on the entire team.

This is going to be another one of my long ones so I'll put some "headers" in.

Abstract
My issues isn't that they are taking the risk in letting Adams go. I think Adams pretty much decided he was going and did exactly what a player should do and maximized the limited leverage a player has. I said the same about Rodgers last year. He maximized what little leverage he had to get the money he felt he deserved. Adams reportedly bought a 12 million mansion in Las Vegas weeks before the trade happened. So trading a player who was not going to cooperate makes sense even if I don't like it. He was fun to watch, fun to root for and I hope he continues to be awesome for another team.

My issue is that I worry about how they relate to players and how they use the tools they have to build a team. I felt they were too reactionary and not proactive enough. As this post will show I may have been wrong and armchair GMing too much.

The team building toolbox and how they use it
I've already stated in earlier in this comment seciont that I feel this front office does a better job of acquiring outside talent. I'm good with that and I like the process they use. Thompson was almost entirely draft and develop, or go for bargain basement outside free agents and develop. He had a few very good mid and high range FA signings but even his best have already been eclipsed by the current FO.

We also don't have enough data to show how good the draft evaluation of player talent is. But that holds true for nearly every GM for any team for the history of the league. So living with small sample size and judging on hindsight based on what we've seen the quality of players is on par with what Thompson and Wolf did early in their tenures. Maybe a bit worse maybe a bit better depending on how you want to weight values.

As I've been thinking about this all a bit for a few days after stating that I can't seem to figure out the plan and that was something that really bothered me, I think I've narrowed in more on what my issues are. I'm going to go into detail because it might help others get a handle on it too.

Team building plan
2018 - Restock talent and evaluate coaching and the QB
It seems pretty clear when they took the reins in 2018 that they were in a "Prove It" mode for McCarthy and Rodgers. They were listening to the criticism McCarthy had been getting for awhile and wanted to know if Rodgers really was back from the injuries. McCarthy obviously flamed out and was booted. So a new coach is brought in for 2019. One who runs a system that in theory allows you some flexibility on offense. If you've got a weak QB you should be able to hide him behind a solid running game and passing game that can scheme people open or take advantage of a player that can get themselves open for the shots. A system that would help you move on from a HoF QB who might be done.

The first draft threw premium picks at a major need point in the secondary and took a bunch of fliers on wider receivers who were raw but had potential. I was good with this approach. Downside to that draft it also wasted a 5th round pick on a punter and a 7th on a long snapper. I don't like using any draft capital on long snappers. I can live with a 7th on punters and kickers as getting them instead of dealing with potentially losing them as UDFAs is fine. I don't think it's ideal but I can understand it. I would rather take a flier on a development project or 3rd on the depth chart somewhere. Heck grab a gunner or returner who might also have a chance to crack the line-up as WR 4 or CB 4 or RB 3. It's not that punters, long snappers, and kickers have no value or that having a crappy one won't hurt you, but they are players you don't want on the field because if they are you did something else wrong (other than the XP) and they are common enough that you can just grab one off the street in the middle of the season sometimes. Use the lottery that is the draft on other assets.

2019 - Restock and shift player talent to fit new coach, finish evaluations on QB and expiring contracts.
The better use of outside free agents vs previous front offices is clearly evident bringing in the Smith "brothers" as edge rushers, Adrian Amos at safety, as well as Billy Turner who was projected to be an interior lineman. The draft then used 1st round picks on a raw edge rusher who likely needed seasoning and a safety. A 2nd round pick on an interior lineman. Then a 3rd round pick on a questionable TE. Like the 5th rounder used on a punter it felt like too much capital for a questionable value. The rest of the draft was again fine 4th-7th round picks on potential talent and development projects / depth at positions of need.

So doing more looking at things, what I hadn't really seen before is they do take a shotgun to things sometimes. I'm actually OK with this. 3 later round WR picks in 2018 hoping to get 1 or 2 to stick at the WR 2 or 3 level because you already have Adams is fine. 3 edge rushers at fairly high resource expenditure hoping to get a couple starters is fine. Gary may have taken longer to develop than many would like for a first rounder but there were questions about both of the Smiths too so my initial thoughts of too many resources at the problem were misguided using only hindsight. Grabbing 2 safeties wasn't just a shotgun it was needed because what they had was not serviceable. Grabbing a couple of interior linemen because you've got some contracts that are expiring and a new coach who has a different weights on what talents he values makes sense. So again feels like good process there.

The new coach and HoF QB you had questions about had some issues. It's not a secret that Rodgers didn't buy into the new system that he actively worked against it at times in some games. But the results on the field worked. Perhaps the FO approach to restocking the talent at a few key positions paid off bigger than expected. Perhaps because the system really isn't super dependent on the QB always doing the right thing; LaFleur is from the Mike Shanahan coaching tree. A combination of both of those factors.

But it definitely feels like the front office decided that it was time to make the plan to move on from Rodgers. His 2018 stats under McCarthy weren't that different from the 2019 stats under LaFleur even if the results on the field were. If that was because Rodgers didn't buy into the system or because age/injury/whatever had caused a real decline he was playing at the edge of the top 10, not like what he was getting paid for and he was under a contract that was very friendly to move on after the 2021 season and doable after the 2020 season. It is very fair to argue this was a bad assessment, but following actions make it seem pretty clear that was what they decided.

2020 - We're going in a new direction
More free agent moves. The offense wants either one TE that can block and catch or a couple of specialized TE that block OR catch well. It still didn't have it. So bring in Lewis who definitely could block and while he didn't have the speed anymore still had good hands. Throw another 3rd round pick at a TE, they wanted starters they were using starter resources. Throw a short term contract at an injury risk ILB to replace your steady but not spectacular internal free agent. Grab a WR who might be a legit #2 but may also be the same level as the 2018 shotgun blast draft picks. It's fine. Grab a serviceable RT who has a skill set the new coach likes better and jettison your pro bowl right tackle who is looking for a bigger pay day. Again fine.

Then you get to the draft and the FO having decided to move on after the 2020 season becomes very clear. Trade up for a QB in the first round. Grab a running back with a 2nd rounder that should complement your ascending 2017 pick very nicely in a system that likes to rotate running backs and believes it can function and win even without a great QB. Grab another TE in the 3rd because the system wants one. Grab a MLB in the 4th because you let your previous starter go and your FA is an injury risk so you need to spend a bit more resources to make sure that doesn't completely crater. Then take fliers on offensive linemen that have skill sets your new coach likes, grab a development project edge rusher and safety depth.

So in the context of we are moving on from our HoF QB in a year or two that draft makes sense. Again the reasons why they decided that could be multiple. So the team building process doesn't seem that flawed when that's the decision that was made. Taking a RB and TE higher than people think you should, trading up for a QB who you know is going to sit for a year (maybe 2) isn't great but you are trying to retool and not miss a step. This is part of what ImNewAroundHere sums up as "They are trying to have their cake and eat it too." 2021 may be a bigger part of his feelings though.

After spending a few days looking at this stuff off and on, I don't think that's it. I think at this point it was a "We have a QB with a weird personality who had issues with our new coach who still got us to the NFCCG, he has 2 years in two systems now with edge of the top 10 stats and a contract that lets us move on. So we move on." As mentioned leveling criticism at them for that assessment is perfectly valid.

Then COVID happened. That depth WR they brought in opted out of the season. This may be why Dillon didn't see the playtime you expect from a 2nd round running back who showed in 2021 that he can play like you expected him to when he was drafted. The Jones / Williams rotation worked

The results on the field were excellent too. The HoF QB bought into the system and thrived. The offense was one of the best points per drive offenses in NFL history. The defense and special teams still had issues and the team fell just short of going to the Super Bowl for the 2nd year in a row.

2021 - Everything is upside down now.
Well now you've got a HoF QB who just won the MVP, had full system buy in and a solid relationship with the new coach and clearly was not in decline. So the plan enacted in 2020 isn't going to work. The QB wants to get paid, wants more input, and probably wants you to publicly admit your plan was wrong but likely will settle for 2 of those.

So how do you assess the team building strategy in light of that?

The talent thrown at the defense and the results it produced in 2020 didn't line up. The D has top 10 talent, but was giving 14th - 20th results. So get a new coordinator for that. Here is another one of my often mentioned negative assessments of the front office. We find out the team has a self imposed salary cap for the coaching staff. That system bothers me because that is one area where you don't have to restrict yourself to get value at the margins and value at the margins can mean going to the Super Bowl or losing the NFCCG. Leonhard may not have left Wisconsin for any price but we know he wouldn't leave for the self limited price. Barry may have been the 3rd or 4th choice. I agree with the process, it was time to move on, but a system that may force you down to your 2nd, 3rd, or Xth choice bothers me when you don't need a system like that in place.

FA and the draft. I did not like the Kevin King contract at all. I did not like resigning Aaron Jones. I did not like deciding it was time to move on at Center. This isn't about what I like this is about figuring out what the FO was doing and the FO uses FA and the draft to fix problems. This all gets more complicated because how much is the HoF MVP QB you decided to keep influencing all of that?

But they still weren't happy at corner so they brought back King for too much and threw another 1st round and 5th round pick at it since the 2019 6th round pick didn't pan out. Shotgun a couple positions a year and hope you get enough to keep it working for 2 to 4 years They bring in another MLB who fits what the new DC likes better. As mentioned they were moving on from their center so they were going to draft a lineman high. They took a center at the end of the 2nd but if they didn't like what was there they had been getting a lot of see if it works linemen in previous drafts and had options, heck people still think Jenkins should be their starting center. Hindsight says they took the wrong one with Myers over Humphrey but it's the process I'm trying to get at and if Myers when he wasn't injured played fine if he stays healthy nothing wrong with the value they get for a 2nd rounder. I liked the Amari Rodgers pick at the time felt he was a player that could contribute as a rookie with nice potential to grow. The trade for Cobb was fine, the pick and what Cobb was expected to be matched and if it made Rodgers happier that's a bonus.

But this is also where I get frustrated. If you don't re-sign Jones and just roll with Dillon and some late round draft pick, if you don't bring back King you have the money and you can bring back your all pro center who while about to turn 30 still had multiple years left. You then don't need to use a premium pick on lineman. You can get the best WR/CB and then whatever else with those first picks in whatever order makes sense for how the players fall. It was pretty clear WR/CB/OL were the main targets but OL didn't need to be. In a WR rich draft you could have gotten 2 WR to shotgun the problem. You could have traded one of those picks and just gotten a CB and WR for the 3 picks but had a WR you liked more than Rodgers. I didn't like limiting flexibility because you needed to deal with letting an internal FA go.

But a lot of that could have been driven by Rodgers behind the scenes. Maybe he didn't like Linsley. Maybe he really like Jones and demanded they do what they could to bring him back.

Conclusion
So it's not that they don't have a plan or process. They do and it's on me I didn't see it better. They fire a lot of rounds at a couple of major areas of need hoping to hit something. I'm OK with that. They take fliers on late round picks at multiple positions. They spend premium draft and FA resources for their biggest needs. So I'm expecting a couple WR in the 1st-3rd and probably a late round as well, an offensive lineman somewhere in the first 3 rounds as well since they let some of that got in FA and Bakh is still an injury question mark. Because they do spend on external free agents they limit flexibility with what they can do with their own FAs. Gotta remember that Teddy always had cap because his FA were the priority.

I still worry about how some departed players discuss the front office. True or not if the reputation builds that the players don't like the GB front office then all FA might start costing more which limits flexibility to deal with the ever shifting health and skill of rosters even more. GB may already have to pay a bit of a premium because it's GB and some players just may not want to go there over cities. That is likely a small effect but why magnify it by getting a reputation, rightly or wrongly, for not dealing well with players?

I never thought the FO was horrible, I just couldn't follow them. Last year during the Rodgers drama I posted several times on here that I thought both Rodgers and the FO were handling it about as well as they could. After my mulling all of this over I'm actually less mad about the mistake in the assessment of Rodgers and deciding after 2019 that it was time to move and implementing the plan. That cost them. They lost a lot resources in the short term on multiple players that won't give them much of anything or in the case of Dillon lost a year or so of value at short shelf life position. But when you think you are going to need a healthy running back that can carry the load for your young QB I get spending a late 2nd even though Jones proved you can get production from a 5th. I suspect they are drafting another TE even though Tonyan is back on a 1 year deal. LaFleur really wants that threat in the passing game and I think they are going to keep throwing resources at it till they get it.

If they spend some late round picks on guys that really seem to be destined to help special teams I'll eat even more crow than I already have. Though if all the resources go to the defense again (which has resigned Campbell and Douglas) I'll have to question the process again.

This is not Mike Sherman GM. But it can be better. Now that I understand what they are doing I can focus my thoughts on the results a little better.

I'm very confused by the consensus of this being short sided for the raiders. They have no control over having two (maybe three) cyborg QB's in their division. Within this reality, what value is there in waiting? Just crash and burn if your risks fall through, but I'll be damned to wait until 2030 to try

Obviously it isn't a binary decision - no team decides to tank 0-17 and no team trades all its future picks.

But there are obvious reasons applying to the NFL which don't apply in the same way to other businesses, including the salary cap and including the importance and timespan of QB play, as to why teams should be on different points of the sliding scale as to long-termism vs short-termism.

I for one will be trying to watch way more AFC West games this year than I did last year!

Do you agree with Charles Barkley viz. Aaron Rodgers? https://www.si.com/extra-mustard/2022/03/04/charles-barkley-says-aaron-rodgers-is-like-pretty-girl

(I'm speaking more in terms of "greed" and not leaving enough money to sign players who could potentially improve the team. Although it seems like Adams was just done with GB, so perhaps it's irrelevant.)

"And I mentioned this above but it bears repeating, receiver age curves imply Adams is either out of his prime or at the very tail end. You don't fork over these assets and this cap space for a non elite, 8-10 best receiver in the NFL."

You could say the exact same thing about Aaron Rodgers (notwithstanding the anomaly that is Tom Brady)...in which case, wouldn't it have behooved GB to either a) retain Adams (perhaps an impossibility), or b) not sign Rodgers to as many years or as much money as they did? Green Bay maybe could have learned something from the Bucs' approach, no? Shouldn't the goal be to surround him with as much ready-made, high-end talent as possible?       

You can't assume the player you are paying today is going to be the player next year and after, but there isn't a better indicator of this. Certainly not vs untested rookies.  The signing of Adams fills an absolute #1 current need (as anyone who watched the post-Ruggs offense could tell you),  the chemistry between QB and WR is already there and its also a great statement of intent about the franchise. 

Meanwhile, Adams is 2 & 4yrs younger than Mack and Wilson respectively.... (& only 15mths older than Tyreek Hill) 

You can't say it will be harder to fix their weaknesses without knowing his contract is structured and the Raiders cap situation. It's a lot of projecting without many facts. The Raiders biggest weakness is at corner and O-line. From last reports, they're going heavy for Gilmore, so clearly this hasn't impacted their ability to still potentially add another big player. O-Line is a much more delicate situation and isn't a 1 year fix. It'll take multiple drafts and some other trades and signings over the next year or two. 

In a very real way, NFL players are trading their health for money. If you can get that extra 10%, you should take it. Because you're not getting your knees back.

Here are a few issues that people don't realize when it comes to these things.

Even if we assume Adams is going to collect every penny, he is in the highest tax bracket, which means he's going to be paying at least 30 percent of that income into taxes without then factoring in all of the other taxes he has to pay.

But the more relevant point is this. His earnings effectively stop after this contract. That means he's not going to sniff another payday anywhere close to what he's earning now, so this really does represent lifetime earnings for him of sorts. On top of that, if he doesn't scale down his lifestyle, he's effectively going to have a large portion of his life with almost no income coming in and lots of income going out. This is markedly different from a CEO of a company who collects a big salary every year for the next 20 years or so.

Naturally there are ways to smooth out all of this so you don't put yourself in a bad situation, but most athletes and most people don't know how to do that.

It's also worth noting. It's remarkable how easy it is to blow through money and that's not meant as a snark. A nice house and nice cars become remarkably expensive beyond the up front sales cost 

Poor process.

Unlike GB who decided too early to find their successor

That they failed to find it with Love is why they started so early. With this contract, they have time to try again without having to find that guy.

... the fact that you (rightly) regard it is a good thing that in effect it's a 3 year contract also demonstrates the age point. If you're thinking it's great that they only have to pay him for 3 years, that tells you they're giving up a lot for not all that long...