Seattle Deals Russell Wilson to Broncos

Broncos QB Russell Wilson
Broncos QB Russell Wilson
Photo: USA Today Sports Images

NFL Offseason - I'm sorry, did you expect Aaron Rodgers' new contract to be the big news of the day? Were you counting on Denver Broncos fans being disappointed today? Well, change of plans, folks. All your favorite national NFL reporters are in agreement that the Seahawks and Broncos have agreed on a giant trade, terms yet to be disclosed, where Russell Wilson will be going from Seattle to Denver in exchange for a package that starts with multiple first-round picks. It's pending Wilson's approval (he has a no-trade clause) and a physical, but it is pretty much happening.

That's the end of the great DVOA Dynasty, finally. Wilson moving on means it is really rebuild time in Seattle. Surprising that Pete Carroll, the oldest head coach in the league, would want to stick around for a rebuild. But we've been talking and writing about how bad the quarterback market is this offseason. There's no sign that the Seahawks would be able to get a quarterback who even comes close to average, let along Russell Wilson when Wilson is playing well.

Wilson's pass DVOA last year seemed to show that he came back too early from his finger injury. Wilson had a pass DVOA of 32.5% for Weeks 1-5, then -15.7% in Weeks 10-15, but it bounced back to 24.1% in Weeks 16-18. He was back to being Russell Wilson by the end of the year. Now he's in the same division as Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert. Good luck, Derek Carr.

UPDATE: Here's your trade compensation: Drew Lock, defensive lineman Shelby Harris, and tight end Noah Fant plus two first-rounders, two second-rounders, and a fifth-rounder in return for Wilson and a fourth-rounder. I don't think that's enough for Seattle.

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Comments

160 comments, Last at 11 Mar 2022, 12:54am

155 Broncos D is short of pass…

Broncos D is short of pass rush right now. Need Chubb to both stay healthy and produce (I’m not certain if Chubb can lead a pass rush, or if Miller made him look a lot better, and his health is a concern). Miller coming back - which might even be affordable - would be interesting. The DL could use some new blood, Harris made some good plays, but provided less consistent pass rush than he did big plays I think (bats passes much better than his pressure rate figures), still sad to see him go, his mid career surge to relevance has been a nice story, but even with Harris around some new blood would have been wanted. Secondary seems pretty set, linebackers have had so many injuries the last couple of years it is hard to tell what might be going on there. Losing defensive play caller several times last year through injury didn’t help the defence, they had some terrible games but some good ones too.

Fant is a starting receiving TE, but there was already another on the roster, and enough WRs to play with trips and TE without him. 
 

 

134 Your first 2 points are very…

Your first 2 points are very valid, but then you might well ask why clearly the relationship with the franchise's most valuable player was allowed to deteriorate in that way, and what you might do about addressing that?

Perhaps it's too late, but a change of coaching might have encouraged him to stay. Regardless of their relative values, prioritizing the 70 year old head coach rather than the 33 year old franchise QB seems questionable. 

138 Why do the Commanders want to sit in this chair?

The two games against Philadelphia should be interesting.  One thing about mediocre QB's, there is always a market for them.  This is the issue with not having a QB, where do you find one?  Is Wentz really such an upgrade from Heinicke that the team is viewed differently?  Now you have Wentz for one year.  So what?  On the flip side, he only cost two third round picks, but I would rather have the picks considering where the team is, which is slightly south of mediocrity. 

 

151 Apparently, Russell Wilson…

Apparently, Russell Wilson refused to be traded to Washington and Philadelphia.  I understand why he wouldn't want to go to the Commanders, but the Eagles made the playoffs last year, are in a weaker division, and have three first round picks.  They could have sent two picks this year to the Seahawks and still had a first round pick this year.  I don't get why Denver is such a better place to be than Philadelphia.

157 Could also be his and his…

Could also be his and his agent's perception of how lucrative each team's offer is likely to be for his next contract (or willingness to lock in a favorable extension sooner than later). He's currently set to be a FA after 2023, right?

But yes, I think we undervalue how much an elite, nine-figure net worth player's personal preferences play into a free agency decision (or in this case, approval of a trade). Most people I know making nice livings but nowhere near the 1% still largely choose where to live based on preference rather than where they can extract every last dollar; why wouldn't people at Wilson's level do the same?