AP Announces 2022 All-Pro Teams
NFL Wild Card - The Associated Press has announced the 2022 All-Pro Teams. This was my third year as an official All-Pro and awards voter for the AP panel. There were also some excellent new names on the panel, including former FO writer Doug Farrar. As is now my yearly tradition, you can scroll down to see my votes and can compare them to the final teams.
Second Team: pic.twitter.com/upGazogPKc
— Rob Maaddi (@RobMaaddi) January 13, 2023
Here were my votes. First team is in bold.
Quarterback: Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. Jalen Hurts made second-team instead. I voted for Allen because he is ahead of Hurts in both passing DYAR/DVOA and rushing DYAR/DVOA.
Running Back: Nick Chubb and Josh Jacobs. Although Jacobs had more yards, Chubb finished ahead of him in both DYAR and Next Gen Stats rushing yards over expectation.
Wide Receiver: For the first team, I chose Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill, and Stefon Diggs. For the second team, I chose A.J. Brown, CeeDee Lamb, and Jaylen Waddle. I really wrestled with leaving Davante Adams off my list but clearly the other voters did not, since he made the first team. I wanted to find a space for Brown, who led the league in ESPN's new receiver tracking metrics, and Waddle, who led the league in receiving DVOA. CeeDee Lamb provided a mix of the two. Honestly, I wish I could have voted for nine receivers because I also thought Tee Higgins and Amon-Ra St. Brown had excellent seasons. Heck, toss in Terry McLaurin and we'll make it 10 receivers. It's a good time for good receivers in the NFL.
Tight End: Travis Kelce and George Kittle.
Left Tackle: Trent Williams and Laremy Tunsil. My offensive line choices are heavily based on discussions with Brandon Thorn and Geoff Schwartz but also SIS Total Points and ESPN blocking win rates. Somehow I ended up picking all the linemen who actually were on the first team and four of the linemen on the second team. Andrew Thomas made second-team left tackle instead of Tunsil.
Left Guard: Joel Bitonio and Joe Thuney.
Center: Jason Kelce and Creed Humphrey.
Right Guard: Zack Martin and Chris Lindstom. Second-team right guard was the toughest offensive line choice, as I also considered Mike Onwenu and Brandon Scherff.
Right Tackle: Lane Johnson and Tristan Wirfs.
Edge Rusher: Nick Bosa and Micah Parsons, then Myles Garrett and Maxx Crosby. Haason Reddick made the second team instead of Crosby.
Defensive Lineman: This was a tough one to whittle down. It was a combination of stats and feel. I went with Quinnen Williams and Chris Jones for the first team and then Jeffrey Simmons and Christian Wilkins for the second team. Dexter Lawrence was a fine choice for the second team instead of Wilkins.
Linebacker: Matt Milano, Roquan Smith, and Dre Greenlaw for the first team and Fred Warner, Bobby Wagner, and Demario Davis for the second team. Greenlaw was third among all linebackers in SIS Total Points, which is why I put him ahead of Warner. Wagner was second in Total Points but some discussion among the FO staffers led to me putting him on the second team instead of the first. Roquan Smith led all linebackers in Total Points if you add together his listing with the Bears and his listing with the Ravens.
Cornerback: Yes, in the modern NFL we should be electing three cornerbacks and two linebackers, not the other way around. I voted for Tyson Campbell and Ahmad Gardner on the first team and Patrick Surtain and James Bradberry on the second team.
Safety: Always a tough one for me. I voted for Talanoa Hufanga and Minkah Fitzpatrick, then Budda Baker and Grant Delpit for the second team.
Kicker: Matt Gay of the Rams led all kickers in FO's field goal value this year, so he was on my first team. Justin Tucker of Baltimore was my second-team pick. Daniel Carlson of the Raiders actually made the first team. He was fourth in our field goal value this year because of adjustment for kicking most of the time indoors. The asterisk there is that we're considering SoFi as an outdoor stadium because it has open sides. I still am not sure if I should be considering it as a dome or an outdoor stadium and plan on addressing that further this offseason.
Punter: Tommy Townsend and Ryan Stonehouse. Stonehouse is ahead of Townsend in gross value but had a lot more punt opportunity. They're similar in gross value per punt and Townsend was much better in net value.
Kick Returner: Keisean Nixon and Nyheim Hines were 1-2 in our values.
Punt Returner: Marcus Jones and Avery Williams of the Falcons were 1-2 in our values.
Special Teams: George Odum and Jeremy Reaves. Odum of the 49ers led the NFL with 20 special teams tackles, 16 of which were stops which prevented an average return. Reaves is a fine player but had 16 and 10, respectively.
Long Snapper: Nick Moore and Andrew DePaola. I know, you're thinking, how on earth do you vote for long snappers? We were given the names and contact info of a couple of long-snapping experts to talk to as well as some PFF long-snapping charting numbers.
19 comments, Last at 14 Jan 2023, 9:50pm
#16 by Lebo // Jan 13, 2023 - 4:32pm
Thanks for sharing these insights to your thinking, Aaron.
The similarity of your o-line votes to the final selections for me thinking. Given that your votes are "heavily based on discussions with Brandon Thorn and Geoff Schwartz" (and some stats), do you take any precautions to ensure that other All Pro voters aren't basing their votes on discussions with those same experts? Otherwise, isn't there a risk that a small group of o-line experts have an out-weighted influence on the final selection?
#14 by BlueStarDude // Jan 13, 2023 - 4:12pm
RE: "Yes, in the modern NFL we should be electing three cornerbacks and two linebackers, not the other way around"
Aaron, you anticipated my first comment — glad I continued reading before making it!
As I've said before, I love reading your explanations. You should insert a heading along the lines of The Dr. Z Memorial All Pro Voting Explanations.
Also, cannot overstate how much I love the return to a sensible format for the AP team and the inclusion now of a true second team. Just take care of the CB vs LB thing and you guys are all set!
#13 by RickD // Jan 13, 2023 - 3:34pm
No love for Judon?
I am curious whether he's being snubbed as an edge rusher or as a linebacker. I don't really have an objection to Bosa and Parsons getting the nod, but I'd take Judon over Crosby or Garrett.
#15 by Aaron Schatz // Jan 13, 2023 - 4:14pm
Judon was considered as an edge rusher.
My biggest pause on Judon was that Brandon Thorn's True Sack Rate had a lot of his sacks listed as cleanup sacks or not beating a block, just getting a direct line to the QB. And if you think about it, you'll remember a lot of these.
Crosby was No. 1 in pressures by SIS charting, tied with Bosa. (This is adding all plays with a sack, hit, or hurry.) Garrett did excellent in True Sack Rate and was third in SIS Total Points. That's why I went with them ahead of Judon. And anecdotally, I just noticed Crosby more as the one really good player on the Raiders defense. But Judon and Haason Reddick were excellent picks as well. It's tough to pick sometimes when there are a lot of good players at the position!
#10 by rh1no // Jan 13, 2023 - 2:33pm
As a Cincinnati fan, it seems like a slight that no Bengals were named as first OR second team All-Pros. However, I can't really see a position where any one individual from the Bengals put up numbers that are superior to anyone who made the list.
I appreciate Aaron considering Tee Higgins, who was the #6 receiver by DVOA and the number #10 receiver by DYAR, but Ja'marr Chase outperformed him in catches, yards, and TDs despite missing four games. There's no way any other voters are going to consider a guy like that.
#11 by Aaron Schatz // Jan 13, 2023 - 3:08pm
Hufanga and Grant Delpit were tied for the No. 1 spot in SIS Total Points among safeties. Hufanga was also third in defeats among safeties behind Fitzpatrick and Rayshawn Jenkins.
Safety is the most difficult position to judge based on both scouting and stats, because it can be hard to know the responsibilities. So I understand if people had other choices than mine.
#6 by Aaron Brooks G… // Jan 13, 2023 - 1:23pm
They're similar in gross value per punt and Townsend was much better in net value.
There are different ways to achieve gross yardage, but it feels like gross yardage reflects on the kicker and net yardage on the coverage.
#5 by Aaron Brooks G… // Jan 13, 2023 - 1:22pm
The asterisk there is that we're considering SoFi as an outdoor stadium because it has open sides. I still am not sure if I should be considering it as a dome or an outdoor stadium and plan on addressing that further this offseason.
Apparently the field is affected by wind, so treating it as outdoors is probably valid.