Chris Olave Headlines DFS Bargains in Week 10

New Orleans Saints WR Chris Olave
New Orleans Saints WR Chris Olave
Photo: USA Today Sports Images

NFL Week 10 - With four teams on a bye week and two playing in Germany, this slate is lacking some star power, but you better believe there is still some great value to be had, and it's shaping up nicely for a contrarian tournament-type week.

Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes $7900 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

After a bye week and a Sunday night game, the Chiefs are back on the main slate of games, and if Josh Allen should miss out through injury then Patrick Mahomes becomes the clear "pay up" option. Mahomes has scored 30 or more DraftKings points in three of his last four games and hasn't scored below 24 points since Week 3. Mahomes is now ranked first in effective yards and second in DYAR and QBR as he puts together another MVP-caliber campaign. The Jaguars passing defense ranks 26th in DVOA over the last three weeks and doesn't look like it has enough juice to stop Mahomes, who leads the league in passing touchdowns with 21.

Usage Suggestions: Stacking Mahomes with Travis Kelce can lead to some uncomfortable decisions elsewhere in our lineups, but because of this very few people will do so in tournaments, which leads to an interesting proposition. Mahomes is also a fine play for cash games.

Tua Tagovailoa $6700 vs. Cleveland Browns

Sooner or later, if Tua Tagovailoa continues this form, he'll have to be seriously mentioned in MVP conversations, as he leads the NFL in DYAR, DVOA, and QBR. Tagovailoa is averaging 315 passing yards and 2.3 passing touchdowns over the last three games. Tua's rise has seen the Dolphins become the league leaders in passing offense DVOA. He now takes on a Cleveland defense that ranks 18th in pass defense DVOA. The Browns last faced the Bengals before their bye week and have had their number in recent matchups. Aside from that game, the Browns haven't faced a pass-focused attack since facing a banged-up Justin Herbert in Week 5, so it feels possible that their stats in the passing game might even be a bit kinder than they should be.

Usage Suggestions: This will be a popular pick thanks to the Dolphins' ability to explode in the passing game, so be mindful of how you stack Tua in tournaments. Look to make bring-back decisions with players such as Donovan Peoples-Jones and get contrarian elsewhere in your lineup.

Justin Fields $6500 vs. Detroit Lions

Over the last three weeks, Justin Fields has scored 20.2 more fantasy points than any other quarterback, and ever since the Bears' mini-bye coming off the Thursday night game against Washington, they look like a completely different prospect. Through the first six games of the year, Fields was completing 55.2% of his passes, but since then he has completed 65.5% and been above 60% in every game. The Lions have been easy pickings for most quarterbacks not named Aaron Rodgers, and on the road their defense ranks 28th in DVOA. Only the Raiders surrender more fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. The last time Detroit faced a dual-threat quarterback was Week 1, when Jalen Hurts torched them to the tune of 90 rushing yards and a touchdown.

Usage Suggestions: For the second straight week Fields will likely be the most popular quarterback on the slate. As such he makes for a great cash game play, and if you're looking to use him in tournaments, consider stacking him heavily from both sides of this game hoping for a shootout.

Running Backs

Saquon Barkley $8600 vs. Houston Texans

After a Week 9 bye, Saquon Barkley returns to the main slate and is the most expensive running back available with his price jumping $500 since the last time we saw him play. Barkley ranks sixth amongst running backs in effective yards and the RB6 in PPR scoring. Our fantasy projections have Barkley as the RB2 this week, behind only Derrick Henry. Barkley faces a Texans side that has allowed the most fantasy points to running backs and ranks 31st in rushing defense DVOA over the last three weeks, a period when they have allowed an average of 207 rushing yards per game.

Usage Suggestions: It's hard to build balanced cash game lineups when you spend up this high. Instead, Saquon is an easier play for tournaments, where he has slate-breaking potential.

Derrick Henry $8300 vs. Denver Broncos

Derrick Henry leads all running backs in effective yards and ranks second in total touchdowns amongst players at the position with nine, and despite the fact that Henry hasn't seen more than three targets since Week 4, he still ranks as the PPR RB3. The Broncos are a rush-funnel defense, with the best pass defense in DVOA that contrasts hugely with their ranking of 29th in rushing defense. Before the Broncos' bye week, they allowed over 150 rushing yards and at least one touchdown in their previous two matchups. Henry rolls into this game on the back of two performances where he has combined for 334 rushing yards and four touchdowns.

Usage Suggestions: Much like Saquon Barkley, Henry's price is a tough pill to swallow when building cash lineups where we aim for balance. But Henry will be a fine play for tournaments and can be correlated with a Broncos pass-catcher such as Greg Dulcich.

James Conner $6200 @ Los Angeles Rams

After missing three games due to a rib injury, James Conner made his return against the Seahawks and immediately usurped Eno Benjamin to see his largest opportunity share since Week 1. Conner looked good in a game where the Cardinals struggled, rushing the ball for 6.4 yards per carry and hauling in all five of his targets. Conner is still priced as if he's in a timeshare, but last week didn't indicate that, and whilst this matchup isn't perfect, with the Rams ranking third-best against the run, it's still an intriguing play.

Usage Suggestions: Because the Rams have a habit of sucking the life out of a game, Conner is a better tournament play than cash game play. He can be stacked with Kyler Murray in lineups where you project the Cardinals to play from behind and Conner sees plenty of targets.

Khalil Herbert $5900 vs. Detroit Lions

On a day when Justin Fields set the NFL all-time record for quarterback rushing yards in a single game with 178 on just 15 attempts, it was surprising to see Khalil Herbert and David Montgomery combine for 7.7 PPR points and just 59 rushing yards on 21 attempts. Montgomery is priced $100 more than Herbert and is by no means a bad player. Both players will get opportunities against this Lions defense that has improved against the run in recent weeks but has allowed the second-most fantasy points to running backs on the season. Last week was the first time that Montgomery saw a significant workload over Herbert since Week 5, but Montgomery was unable to do much with it.

Usage Suggestions: Herbert is a tournament-only play because of the chance that Montgomery steals high-value touches, but the upside is clear with Herbert, who has been more efficient and explosive than Montgomery.

Dameon Pierce $6300 @ New York Giants

There isn't much going right for the Texans this year but Dameon Pierce has been at the heart of everything good. The Giants rank 24th in rushing defense DVOA and Pierce's dominant workload keeps him in play here. Through the last three games Pierce has averaged 23 total touches per game and has averaged 15.5 Draftkings points. 

Usage Suggestions: The kind of workload that Pierce is getting is perfect for cash game lineups.

Wide Receivers

Jaylen Waddle $7600 vs. Cleveland Browns

Only two wide receivers have more touchdowns than Jaylen Waddle's six, and whilst Waddle has had to share the glory with Tyreek Hill and averages five fewer PPR points per game, his price is a lot more palatable at $2500 cheaper than Hill. Waddle has scored 16 or more points in three of his last four games and averages 102 receiving yards in that spell. Waddle leads receivers in DVOA and his 11.6 yards per target is first amongst receivers with 25 or more catches. The Browns rank 26th in coverage against WR2s and will have their hands full trying to cope with Hill and Waddle.

Usage Suggestions: Waddle is both cash game- and tournament-viable.

Amon-Ra St. Brown $6900 @ Chicago Bears

With T.J. Hockenson traded to the Vikings, Amon-Ra St. Brown saw his target share hit a new season-high at 37.5% in the Lion's win over the Packers. In the five games St. Brown has played over 30% of the snaps, he averages 10.4 targets and is clearly Jared Goff's safety blanket. Chicago has struggled in passing defense, ranking 28th against WR1s and 26th against the pass over the last four weeks.

Usage Suggestions: Volume can be king in cash games, and there is no reason to not consider St. Brown for these type of games. He can also be used in tournaments, where he'll be popularly correlated with Justin Fields. To get different, we can build on that to include the likes of Darnell Mooney or Chase Claypool in the hopes the game explodes with points.

Chris Olave $6800 @ Pittsburgh Steelers

On Monday, Chris Olave became just the fifth receiver this season to have a top-24 performance against a tough Baltimore Ravens secondary. It was the latest in a string of impressive performances for a rookie who has looked every bit the part through eight games. Olave is 12th in effective yards and leads all rookie receivers in targets, receptions, yardage, and fantasy points. The Steelers pass defense ranks 24th over the last four weeks, and this year they have allowed the second most fantasy points to receivers.

Usage Suggestions: Olave is a reliable enough play to consider for cash games and can be built into tournament lineups with Steelers pass-catchers, who also have a friendly matchup.

JuJu Smith-Schuster $6000 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

It's starting to look a little bit crowded in Kansas City's wide receiver room, but JuJu Smith-Schuster has separated from the rest with eight or more targets in all but two games this year, whilst the rest see much more varied production. The Chiefs have largely given up on their running game and rank second in the league in pass offense DVOA. Instead of having a running game, the Chiefs use their passing game and predominantly Smith-Schuster and Kelce to soften opponents. Smith-Schuster has finished in the top eight amongst receivers in PPR scoring in his last three games and now faces a defense that ranks 30th against the pass in the last four weeks.

Usage Suggestions: JuJu sees enough reliable volume that we can consider him a cash play and also a fine tournament play when stacked with Patrick Mahomes.

Christian Kirk $5900 @ Kansas City Chiefs

On the other side of this matchup, Christian Kirk comes into this game on the back of two top-15 PPR performances in his last three games. Kirk has been utilized well by the Jaguars in all areas of the field, being Trevor Lawrence's safety blanket in the slot and also leading the team in red zone targets (nine). The Chiefs have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers and rank dead last in DVOA against WR1s.

Usage Suggestions: Kirk is borderline cash game-playable but a more comfortable fit in tournaments, where we can play hoping for ceiling outcomes as the Jaguars chase the game.

Chase Claypool $4800 vs. Detroit Lions

After being traded from the Steelers, Chase Claypool saw six targets and a rushing attempt despite playing on just 35% of snaps. The Bears signaled their intent to get Claypool involved early on and targeted him on two of Justin Fields' first four passing attempts. The Lions' passing game has struggled this season, giving up the eighth-most fantasy points, and they particularly struggle against WR2s, ranking 31st in DVOA.

Usage Suggestions: This play is more suited to tournaments than cash games as the floor is a little uncertain. Claypool is an obvious candidate to stack with Fields at a relatively low cost, so be mindful of how different the rest of your lineup is if you choose to go this route.

Donovan Peoples-Jones $4300 @ Miami Dolphins

Whilst Amari Cooper has impressed this season, it has gone a little unnoticed how well Donovan Peoples-Jones is playing, and he returns from the Browns' bye week after having three WR3 weeks and averaging 6.2 targets per game over his last five. Peoples-Jones has no touchdowns this season but has still managed to have five double-digit PPR performances, and at $4,300 he's an appealing option against a Miami pass defense that ranks 25th. With David Njoku again missing out it only serves to condense the passing game even more in Peoples-Jones favor.

Usage Suggestions: Peoples-Jones is a dart throw for tournaments, where you're aiming to gain access to this game without paying up.

Mack Hollins $4200 @ Indianapolis Colts

Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller both landed on I.R on Thursday which opens up the likelihood that Mack Hollins returns to being relied upon heavily as he was earlier on in the year where he had several good fantasy performances. Hollins has four double-digit PPR performances this season and has also seen eight red zone targets through eight games. 

Usage Suggestions: If you're paying down at receiver it'll likely result in a choice between either Hollins or Peoples-Jones, but I'm not against paying down for both of them and then paying up at other skill positions.

Tight Ends

Pat Freiermuth $4200 vs. New Orleans Saints

On paper, this matchup doesn't look overly friendly for Pat Freiermuth as the Saints rank No. 1 against tight ends in DVOA and have also allowed the fewest fantasy points to the position, but occasionally we need to go against the grain a little. Freiermuth has averaged 8.3 targets over his last three full games, which ranks second amongst tight ends behind Travis Kelce. With Chase Claypool no longer in town, the passing game should condense further in Pittsburgh and Mike Tomlin went out of his way this week to mention Freiermuth as someone who could have a bigger role moving forward.

Usage Suggestions: Because of the matchup, this is a tournament-only suggestion where it's likely Freiermuth will be low-rostered.

Foster Moreau $3200 @ Indianapolis Colts

With Darren Waller heading to I.R due to a hamstring injury reaggravation, it's officially Foster Moreau's time as the TE1 in Vegas. The Colts allow the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends and are 27th in DVOA against the position. There is no reason to fade Moreau this week.

Usage Suggestions: Moreau is a fine play for both cash and tournament lineups.

Tyler Higbee $3600 vs. Arizona Cardinals

At the start of the season, Tyler Higbee looked like the most undervalued tight end as he turned in five top-15 performances and three in the top eight at the position. Since then, however, it has been a lot more disappointing with just 7.6 PPR points in his last three games combined, but better times might be ahead for Higbee, who faces a Cardinals defense that ranks 30th in DVOA against tight ends and has surrendered the second-most fantasy points to the position. In Week 3, Higbee had four catches for 61 yards against this Cardinals team, and another similar performance would be plenty at just $3600.

Update: With Matthew Stafford looking 50/50 to play this week, Higbee is slightly less of a good play. Higbee has played four games with backup QB John Wolford and averaged 4 receptions per game in those.

Usage Suggestions: With three poor performances in a row, Higbee is easier to stomach in tournaments.

Greg Dulcich $3400 @ Tennessee Titans

The Broncos having a bye week seems to have dampened the excitement around the fantasy community in regards to Greg Dulcich. It's rare that rookie tight ends come in and contribute straight away, but through the three games, Dulcich has played he has 17 targets, including four deep targets, and finished as tight end 11, 7, and 9. The Titans have allowed the 13th-most fantasy points to tight ends and just allowed Travis Kelce to put up over 100 yards against them.

Usage Suggestions: Dulcich is cheap enough to consider for cash game lineups where you punt the position and is also a fine play in tournaments, making for a solid correlation with Derrick Henry.

Stack of The Week

All three of these plays have been mentioned in this week's article already, so I'll keep it short and sweet, Tua Tagovailoa ($6,700), Jaylen Waddle ($7,600) and Donovan Peoples-Jones ($4,300) gives you a game stack for less than 40% of your salary, and if the game turns pass-heavy or Cleveland has to play catch up, it could have a high ceiling.

Fade of The Week

DeAndre Hopkins has averaged 4.3 catches for 52 yards and zero touchdowns in his last three appearances against the Rams. Meanwhile, his quarterback Kyler Murray is dealing with a hamstring issue and had his worst game of the season against the Rams. Hopkins has been a volume hog, but $8,000 is too expensive for a matchup that might get ugly.

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