Jonathan Taylor Headlines Week 11 DFS Values
NFL Week 11 - Week 11 is here and it brings us a slate of interesting matchups, including some tantalizing wide receivers in the budget range along with some running backs with slate-breaking potential priced at a level that's easy enough to swallow.
Josh Allen $8500 vs. Cleveland Browns
With Buffalo currently under a large quantity of snow the Bills game has been moved to Detroit and the warmth of a dome. Josh Allen was removed from the injury report on Friday and practiced without limitations. With no weather concerns and against the 26th-ranked passing defense in DVOA, Josh Allen has become a much more appealing play for Week 11. The Bills are an offensive juggernaut and even with Allen struggling with mental decisions in the last week it's hard to find much cause for optimism for the Browns defense. Josh Allen is one of two quarterbacks to average over 300 passing yards per game, which frequently unlocks the three-point bonus on Draftkings, along with averaging the third-most passing touchdowns per game (2.2) and the third-most rushing yards per game amongst quarterbacks (52.9).
Usage Suggestions: Allen is an expensive play but worthwhile in both cash or tournaments. Stacking Allen with Gabe Davis ($6300) will be slightly less common than with Stefon Diggs.
Lamar Jackson $8400 vs. Carolina Panthers
After three weeks away from the main slate of daily fantasy games, Lamar Jackson returns with what looks like a straightforward matchup against the Carolina Panthers, now led by Baker Mayfield. The Panthers rank 26th against the pass in DVOA over the last four weeks, faring better against the run where they rank 13th. Whilst the Panthers have fared better against the run, they did give up 86 rushing yards to Marcus Mariota in the two games they played recently, and Jackson should provide an even tougher test, as the Ravens come into this game fresh off their bye week as the seventh-best offense over the last four weeks.
Usage Suggestions: Jackson is in play for both tournaments and cash games (double-ups or 50/50s). Because the Ravens passing game is condensed, if you're playing large-field contests, consider either playing Jackson on his own or adding Mark Andrews and another player to make your stack stand out.
Justin Fields $7600 @ Atlanta Falcons
Since Week 7, Justin Fields has averaged 34.8 DraftKings points per week and his salary has risen significantly since Week 6, when it sat at $5200. With back-to-back performances over 40 points, you could argue that Fields is still somewhat underpriced, particularly in a plum matchup against the Falcons' 30th-ranked defense. Fields leads all quarterbacks in rushing yards with 749 and has also passed for multiple touchdowns in three games running. The Falcons allow the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. This one is straightforward and will no doubt be popular.
Usage Suggestions: Considering Fields' fantasy breakout in recent weeks, you're not sneaking this play past anyone. The game also features the highest over/under of the slate, which normally brings with it plenty of interest. Fields is playable as an individual allowing you to access more pass-catchers from other good offenses on the slate, or stacked with any of his pass-catchers, who all have friendly matchups.
Dak Prescott $6600 @ Minnesota Vikings
The Cowboys occasionally veer run-heavy, and there is a small worry that could happen again after a loss where Dak Prescott threw the ball 17 times more than in any other game this season. With that said, the Cowboys are showing they can put up numbers in the passing game, with their most passing yards and touchdowns of any game this season. Now that Michael Gallup and Dalton Schultz look healthy, perhaps we're seeing how the Cowboys will play when forced to. Both the Cowboys and Vikings rank top-seven in situation-neutral pace, which typically leads to fast-pacing and high-scoring affairs.
Usage Suggestions: Because of the risk of the Cowboys turning heavier to the run, I prefer this play for tournaments, but wouldn't expect Prescott to be as highly owned as you might think. Prescott can be stacked with either CeeDee Lamb or Schultz, or paired with any Vikings pass-catchers.
Daniel Jones $5700 vs. Detroit Lions
Through 10 weeks of the season, the Lions have allowed the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. They will now face Daniel Jones after allowing 147 rushing yards to Justin Fields, a week after letting Aaron Rodgers add 40 rushing yards to his box score. Jones is quietly having one of his best seasons as a pro, with just two interceptions on the season and averaging 16.3 fantasy points. The weapons aren't pretty for the Giants, but Jones keeps doing just enough, and if you're looking to pay down at quarterback, this is as friendly a matchup as you'll find.
Usage Suggestions: Jones averages 43 rushing yards per game, which helps elevate his floor slightly. He can be considered a fringe play for cash games, but a better play in tournaments, where we can hope this game explodes in the same way some Lions games have this year.
Jonathan Taylor $7800 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
With Nyheim Hines out of Indy and Matt Ryan back under center, Jonathan Taylor set a season-high in snap percentage (93.8%) and turned in his second-best performance of the season and his first performance inside the top 20 running backs since Week 1. Jeff Saturday might be proving to have an impact on the offensive line immediately with Taylor rushing for 3.8 yards before contact, a big jump from his previous season average of 1.5. Over the last four weeks, the Eagles rushing defense ranks 31st in DVOA, allowing an average of 149.5 rushing yards per game. In that span, the Eagles are fifth against the pass and teams have been leaning toward attacking the ground, an area that the Colts should target aggressively.
Usage Suggestions: Taylor is a fine play in both cash and tournaments. The Colts rank 29th against WR1s, which should stand to benefit A.J. Brown, who can be correlated with Taylor.
Josh Jacobs $7500 @ Denver Broncos
Another running back in a run-funnel game is Josh Jacobs, who had his best performance in three weeks when the Raiders lost to the Colts in Week 10. Jacobs set a season-high in targets (eight) as the Raiders tried to find ways to move the ball without Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller. The Broncos rank third against the pass but 20th against the run and have allowed the eighth-most rushing yards this season. Before the Broncos sold out to stop Derrick Henry in Week 10, they had allowed Travis Etienne to rush for 156 yards against them in London.
Usage Suggestions: Jacobs is a fine play for both cash and tournaments. It's risky trying to correlate anything in the Broncos passing attack, but Greg Dulcich and Courtland Sutton look to be the best bets against a weak Raiders secondary.
David Montgomery $6100 @ Atlanta Falcons
On Tuesday, Khalil Herbert was placed on IR, and David Montgomery was in turn returned to his status of workhorse running back for a team that loves to run the ball. Montgomery was the featured running back in 2021 and had three top-12 performances in his last six games. Atlanta ranks 22nd in rush defense DVOA over the last four weeks and allowed D'Onta Foreman to have two big days of over 100 rushing yards in both meetings with the Panthers.
Usage Suggestions: Montgomery is priced low enough to consider for cash lineups, but the risk of Justin Fields vulturing his touchdowns is real and might make this slightly more appealing for tournaments, particularly if you're using it as a hedge on Fields' production.
Antonio Gibson $5600 @ Houston Texans
The Houston Texans have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing running backs of all teams, and they rank 30th in rush defense DVOA over the last four weeks. The Commanders come into this game on the back of an impressive victory over the Eagles, where they ran the ball a whopping 49 times for 152 yards and two touchdowns. Neither Brian Robinson or Antonio Gibson are running the ball particularly effectively, with Robinson averaging 3.1 yards per carry and Gibson faring slightly better at 3.7. Where Gibson has a slight advantage is the passing game, averaging 4.1 targets per game over the last six games whereas Robinson has a total of four on the season. The likely best play of this backfield will likely be the running back who scores the touchdowns, but I lean towards Gibson being slightly more game script-proof.
Usage Suggestions: Due to the timeshare situation, I would prefer to play Gibson in tournaments.
A.J. Brown $8000 @ Indianapolis Colts
After a quiet matchup against the Commanders, A.J. Brown finds himself primed for a bounceback against the Colts, who rank 29th against WR1s. Dallas Goedert was placed on injured reserve on Wednesday, which will serve to condense the Eagles passing attack somewhat, and Brown's 29.4% team target share could be looking even better in the coming weeks. Brown's poor game came at a time when fantasy managers had started to put faith in him after some up-and-down performances, and the dud will only serve to keep his rostership lower than it could have been for his return to the main slate.
Usage Suggestions: At this price, Brown makes more sense for tournaments than cash, and he can be played with Jalen Hurts or correlated with Jonathan Taylor for a pairing with slate-breaking upside that not many will use due to the expense.
CeeDee Lamb $7500 @ Minnesota Vikings
After a few quiet weeks, CeeDee Lamb has been a top-12 wide receiver in back-to-back weeks that he has played, combining for 59.8 DraftKings points across Weeks 8 and 10. Lamb is consistently the focal point of the Cowboys passing game, ranking 12th in effective yards and averaging a 33% team target share, and only once this season has that number dipped below 25%. The Vikings struggled against Stefon Diggs in Week 10 as he had 12 catches for 128 yards, and Lamb can win in many of the same ways Diggs can.
Usage Suggestions: Lamb is priced cheap enough to consider for cash games but can also be used in tournaments with Dak Prescott stacks.
Tee Higgins $7100 @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Despite the Bengals coming into this game off a bye week, it sounds highly unlikely that Ja'Marr Chase has had enough time to recover from the hip injury that kept him out of the Bengals previous two games. As such, Tee Higgins should get another chance to show he's as good as most WR1s on teams across the league. Higgins ranks 13th in DYAR and averages 7.3 targets per game, despite often having to share the field with Chase. Removing Higgins' quiet performance in Week 1 and he averages 76 receiving yards per game, and now he will face a Pittsburgh defense that has allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing receivers and ranks 18th against the pass in DVOA.
Usage Suggestions: Higgins is in play for all formats and makes for a fine stacking partner if you're tempted by Joe Burrow's $6800 salary.
Chris OIave $6800 vs. Los Angeles Rams
After an impressive few weeks, Chris Olave had his worst fantasy performance of the season in Week 10, finishing with just 7.0 PPR points. This coincided with his fewest targets since Week 1, and whilst it's possible this could be in part due to Jarvis Landry's return, it's not worrying enough to take him out of consideration just yet. Andy Dalton is set to start, but even if Jameis Winston was injected into the game, it's unlikely to hamper Olave's production after the two showed chemistry early in the season. The Rams are coming to terms that their season is over, and their passing defense has ranked 28th over the last four weeks in DVOA, which is where they rank against WR1s also.
Usage Suggestions: The Rams have a habit of sucking the fun out of games recently, so it's not necessarily the environment we'd love for cash games, but Olave is still a fine play for tournaments.
Courtland Sutton $6000 vs. Las Vegas Raiders
I know what you're thinking, but I am ready to get hurt again by having to count on the Broncos to do anything of worth on a Sunday. In Week 10, with Jerry Jeudy leaving the game due to an ankle injury, Courtland Sutton tied his season-high with 11 targets in a game that fellow wide receiver KJ Hamler also missed. Hamler and Jeudy both look set to miss Week 11 against a Raiders defense that ranks dead-last in pass defense DVOA over the last four weeks and has allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to the position. The Raiders allow passing touchdowns at a rate of 1.9 per game, third-highest in the league, and have allowed big days for Parris Campbell and Christian Kirk in their last two games.
Usage Suggestions: There is nothing safe about the Broncos. As such, this is a tournament-only play that can be correlated with either Davante Adams or Josh Jacobs.
Devin Duvernay $5000 vs. Carolina Panthers
Before the Ravens headed into their bye week, Devin Duvernay had a particularly quiet game against the Saints as Lamar Jackson spread the ball around to 10 different receivers. Offensive coordinator Greg Roman mentioned that getting Duvernay consistently involved will be a point of emphasis with the Ravens now missing Rashod Bateman for the season, and whilst it's not a lot to cling to, Duvernay was averaging 4.8 targets per game over the previous five. He's undoubtedly the Ravens best wide receiver, putting up five double-digit performances in nine games. The Panthers have struggled against the pass, ranking 26th in the last four weeks, and have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to opponents this season.
Usage Suggestions: Duvernay is a dart throw for tournaments only. He's a better play to consider if Mark Andrews should sound like he's struggling with injuries still.
Darius Slayton $5000 vs. Detroit Lions
Whilst Kenny Golladay made the headlines for all the wrong reasons in Week 10, Darius Slayton deserved all the praise he got after a 54-yard touchdown helped him to his fourth double-digit performance in five games, a period where he has averaged 12.3 DraftKings points and has surpassed 14 twice. Detroit has allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing receivers and the Giants are down to bare bones these days. It feels likely that if this game turns into one that is good for fantasy, Slayton can be involved.
Usage Suggestions: With the Giants passing game what it is, it would be better to consider this a salary relief option in tournaments, where Slayton can be correlated with Lions pass-catchers.
Parris Campbell $4300 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
The Colts reinstalling Matt Ryan at quarterback spelled good news for Parris Campbell, who saw his target average drop from 5.9 in games with Ryan to 3.5 in games with Sam Ehlinger. Across Campbell's last three games with Ryan, he has averaged 20.8 PPR points and has finished as the WR9, WR5, and WR11, scoring touchdowns in all of those games. The Eagles are a tough opponent for any passing game, but Campbell has been consistent enough to give him the benefit of doubt at this price.
Usage Suggestions: Campbell is cheap enough to consider for all formats.
Nico Collins $4100 vs. Washington Commanders
The Commanders kept A.J. Brown in check in Week 10, but they have still struggled against the pass this season and allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, struggling particularly against WR2s like Nico Collins, where they rank 32nd in DVOA. With Brandin Cooks back in the side, Collins resumed his duties as the Texans WR2 and scored his first touchdown of the season against the Giants. Collins has averaged 54.6 receiving yards over his last six games and has five or more targets in three of the last four.
Usage Suggestions: Collins is a salary relief dart throw in a difficult-to-predict area of pricing, but the usage has been steady and the matchup is favorable
Mark Andrews $6800 vs. Carolina Panthers
On Wednesday, Mark Andrews practiced for the first time in almost three weeks, but there remains a question over whether he'll play this week or if the Ravens might see fit to give the stud tight end another week of rest with the playoffs in mind. If Andrews does play, then it's likely that many might fade him given the implied risk of a player returning from injury, but where there are fears there are opportunities, and Andrews will be facing a Carolina defense that ranks 24th against tight ends. Before getting banged up against the Browns in Week 7, Andrews had averaged 9.5 targets per game and 19.1 PPR points and, despite missing almost two full games, is third in DYAR and effective yards. If Andrews should miss out, then Isaiah Likely becomes a great play at $3,600 coming off back-to-back games with touchdowns.
Usage Suggestions: $6,800 is very cheap for Andrews and he can be considered a cash game play if he is practicing in full before Sunday. Otherwise he's best kept for tournaments.
Dalton Schultz $4300 @ Minnesota Vikings
After a slow start to the season marred by injuries, Dalton Schultz has quietly gotten back to being a solid fantasy football performer, finishing as the TE12, TE6, and TE3 over his last three games and averaging 13.5 DraftKings points in that period. Minnesota allows the ninth-most fantasy points to the position, and if this one turns into a shootout, then Schultz stands to be involved with the Cowboys passing game picking up steam in recent weeks.
Usage Suggestions: Schultz is an OK play for cash games but an easier pill to swallow in tournaments as part of Cowboys and Vikings game stacks.
Greg Dulcich $3800 vs. Las Vegas Raiders
In the Broncos' defeat to Tennessee, Greg Dulcich came back down to earth after three very impressive performances to start his NFL career. One catch for 11 yards was not good enough, but DFS is a weekly sport and it doesn't pay off to carry our disappointments from one week to the next. Dulcich ranks seventh in DVOA amongst tight ends and finds himself in a friendly matchup with the Raiders, who have allowed the seventh most points to opposing tight ends. At under $4,000, Dulcich looks like the best option this week.
Usage Suggestions: At this price, I am still fine playing Dulcich in either cash or tournaments.
As always, this article will be updated all the way through to Sunday. If you have any questions, you can always find me on Twitter or in the Discord, where I keep an eye out for questions in the Fantasy or DFS channels.