The Great Anthony Richardson Fantasy Football Debate

Indianapolis Colts QB Anthony Richardson
Indianapolis Colts QB Anthony Richardson
Photo: USA Today Sports Images

NFL Offseason - You have heard the Anthony Richardson fantasy football slander somewhere online. Maybe it's the SEC fan in your life with their "Trust me, I watched him" logic. Maybe it's someone on social media crippled by their 2022 Trey Lance blues. Maybe it's your fantasy football podcast co-host who loves the Skyy Moore and Laviska Shenault "undersized players with few real-life applications but cool names" tier of prospects but has a real blind spot to this potential generational talent.

The debate has pained me, one of the Internet's earliest unironic Josh Allen adopters in my days doing regular content for the fantasy data and betting analytics obsessives at back in 2018. After a slow start for Allen as he adjusted from lesser competition at Wyoming (and a lot of public skepticism and scrutiny), he returned from injury and piled up four games of at least 99 rushing yards in his final six. That run was topped off by a Week 17 9-for-95, two-rushing touchdown day against Miami when he also threw for three touchdowns and a pick, a 41.5-point day in DraftKings scoring. Allen's tendencies to run and throw deep balls have been a hallmark of his career, even early on, and ones I identified years ago as key ones I want in my fantasy football portfolio.

There are historically two most prominent shades of fantasy productivity at quarterback. Your statuesque pocket passer who'll never run but can sling for 300-plus yards and create massive outlier performances for his pass-catchers is one. Your elite runner who gives you a floor with his rushing ability as well as the role to smash in touchdowns as they have carte blanche to carry the ball anywhere on the field is the other.

There are few who can truly do both. When they do, they typically find the chance to ascend to the hallowed air of your Allens, Jalen Hurts, or Lamar Jacksons. You have had your fleeting moments with Kyler Murray and the current aspirations for Justin Fields after he flashed a gaudy 0.34 Estimated Points Added per rush (a stat from our friends at the glorious data nirvana that is Sports Info Solutions; all the data points in here will come from them) but a woeful -34.5% passing DVOA in 2022.

The fact that we're comparing him to players like this alone should interest you in the concept of an Anthony Richardson, a player who can create value with his legs or through the air. There's a whole lot more to continue with that pro-Richardson sales pitch, one that I will personally swear by as my No. 1 take of the 2023 fantasy football season. But let's talk about his flaws first.

Anthony Richardson Core Passer Metrics

I fully acknowledge that there are some troubling data points from Richardson's star turn as Florida's starting quarterback in 2022. His 0.007 EPA per throw is perhaps only slightly better than a former James Bond actor might provide and well behind C.J. Stroud's 0.309 EPA per throw, Bryce Young's 0.238 EPA per throw, and right there with likely career backup Aidan O'Connell's same EPA mark in the final year for this draft class. Richardson does grade out better than fellow SEC competitor Will Levis and his -0.005 EPA per throw but, hey, they don't give out theoretical points for a surplus of mayo and banana peels in the body.

How about some historical comparisons? I dug into the SIS database to find some more quarterbacks who are top outcomes for Richardson, prolific runners who come without a prototypical passing package. So we're talking heavyweights such as Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Jalen Hurts, our current Holy Trinity of fantasy quarterbacks who can throw and run. The three faced varied levels of competition, with Hurts likely most aligned to the caliber of teams Richardson faced in the SEC, an important thing to keep in mind.

In these same EPA metrics, Hurts is the clear winner based off his 2019 Oklahoma season. Hurts' 0.388 EPA per throw easily beats the aforementioned 0.007 for Richardson. You can debate how much of that was Hurts and how much of that is Lincoln Riley's scheme, which has now vaulted multiple quarterbacks to NFL success (or at least high draft capital). But Richardson is behind Lamar Jackson's 0.101 EPA per throw at Louisville his last year and ahead of Allen's -0.045 EPA per throw.

Richardson is also the worst of these four with a 2.8% interception rate per attempt (that would also be in line with NFL league average). Hurts was remarkable with a 0.4% interception rate while Allen and Jackson are close to Richardson with a 2.2% and 2.3% interception rate respectively.

A lot has been made of Richardson's poor 53.7% completion rate at Florida last year. It's the weakest amongst the drafted rookies this year, even later picks such as Jaren Hall or an undrafted free agent such as Malik Cunningham. But it's not far off from Allen's 56.3% completion rate, Jackson's 59.1% completion rate, or Hurts' 60.4% completion rate, all likely to be considered "subpar."

The catchable ball rate is also in a similar range with Richardson in the rear. Richardson's 71.5% catchable ball rate is behind Allen's at 73.7%, while Jackson and Hurts both were decimals apart at 76.5% and 76.9% respectively.

Despite higher draft capital than these other three stars, it's safe to say that baseline passing metrics look unfavorably on Richardson even compared to these similar archetypes. One area he stands out is 14.5 yards per completion compared to 14.4 for Lamar, 11.9 for Allen, and 13.5 for Hurts ... but is that enough?

Anthony Richardson's Biggest Weakness

It has to get worse before it gets better in this Curious Case of Anthony Richardson, as Encyclopedia Brown may dub it. And it does not get much worse than Richardson's throws under 10 air yards. You can point to things like his footwork, which some tape-watchers have in prospect breakdowns. You could also point to a subpar cast at Florida that was perhaps unable to handle Richardson's Favre-ian 100 MPH heaters that will bust a knuckle or two at short range.

Either way, Richardson's -0.44 EPA per throw on passes under 10 yards is abysmal, even accounting for the difficulty of stacking up a high EPA on catches likely to be surrounded by multiple defenders. He is worst in the 2023 draft in this area of the field but, oddly, right amidst these other guys with all four as negative-EPA passers in short range. Allen's -0.23 EPA per throw is second-worst, Hurts' -0.18 EPA per throw is third-worst, and Jackson's -0.02 EPA per throw leads the way. For reference, Stroud was tops among non-Stetson Bennett rookies with a 0.08 EPA per throw under 10 air yards while Bennett, unencumbered by any quest to achieve a college degree, notched a 0.18 EPA per throw for the short ones to lead the class.

The accuracy in this range is even worse of a look for Richardson. Richardson's 56.0% completion rate in throws under 10 yards is bottom of the draft class and lower than Allen's 65.2%, Jackson's 68.8%, and Hurts' closer-to-average 75.0% completion rate in this range. None of these guys make their living underneath as pros so perhaps you can excuse the failings of Richardson here. But I have to flag it as something that is downright unappealing and a fair critique, albeit one that explains his overall poor numbers with him schemed to take these under-10-yard throws on almost 50% of his dropbacks.

The good news? Things look up for Richardson from here.

Anthony Richardson Under Pressure

One area that stands out is how Richardson handles pressure. Let's watch a fun video to quickly illustrate:

He's an elite runner of the highest magnitude, which we'll get to in a moment. But his low sack rate really stands out. Once again, he's no Stetson Bennett with the 33rd-best NFL team supporting him on offense as they kept his pressure low at 20.5% and just a 2.1% sack rate. Richardson saw pressure on 37.2% of dropbacks and fought his way to just a 3.8% sack rate, lowest in the class besides well-protected pocket passers such as Bennett and Stroud. That's substantially better than Allen (sacked 7.3% of the time on an alarming 42.3% pressure rate), Hurts (with an identical 7.3% sack rate on a 37.3% pressure rate), and Jackson (5.7% sack rate on a 39.5% pressure rate).

Richardson still brought the lowest EPA of our rushing fantasy quarterback Holy Trinity with a -0.51 EPA per dropback versus pressure, a number behind Allen's 0.52 EPA per dropback, Jackson's -0.46 EPA per dropback, and Hurts' -0.15 EPA per dropback that would be the best in this year's draft class.

I'll take Richardson's core ability to keep plays alive as it relates to his peers, particularly when you account for competition and supporting cast.

Anthony Richardson's Throws over 10 Yards

This is where things get interesting to me. We have talked about the macro of Richardson's throwing ability, the overall counting stats with some advanced metrics that show he's adding some value despite inaccuracy but undeniably not enough value to vault him into the tier of his fellow first-round quarterback peers or most of our Holy Trinity. This is an Anthony Richardson doubter's main critique.

But where do we gain most of our value in fantasy football at the quarterback position? A player's ability to willingly create plays downfield and create value with those opportunities.

The situation looks better for Richardson when we isolate throws between 10 and 20 air yards. Richardson targeted this area on 27.0% of his throws with a 56.0% completion rate that would be higher than Allen's 55.0% (25.2% dropback rate) and Jackson's 55.7% (20.8% dropback rate) but behind Hurts' 71.3% completion rate (28.5% dropback rate).

Richardson also is only behind Hurts in this 10- to 20-air yard range by EPA metrics. Hurts had a 0.83 EPA per throw between 10 and 20 yards his final year in college, Richardson brings a 0.49 EPA per throw, then we see Allen's 0.45 EPA per throw and Jackson's 0.40 EPA per throw. Much like the other metrics that were bad for Richardson, I won't laud him too much for being slightly ahead of these guys at the same points in their careers. But, once again, he remains in a spectrum of performance one can say is "just as good, maybe better." He would also be ahead of Stroud's 0.44 EPA per throw in this part of the field while behind Young's 0.57 EPA per attempt.

Things get really fun as we move down the field with throws of 20-plus air yards. You may have seen Richardson's cannon at the NFL combine, but the metrics are even more favorable. Richardson attempted passes of 20-plus air yards on 15.4% of his throws, higher than Allen's 15.1% rate, Jackson's 14.9% rate, and behind Hurts' (brilliantly strategized) 18.8% rate. But Richardson leads all four in EPA per throw with a 0.78 EPA per attempt that inched ahead of Hurts' 0.76 EPA per attempt while worlds ahead of Allen's 0.02 EPA per attempt over 20 yards and Jackson's 0.07 EPA per attempt.

Richardson's completion rate also shines downfield in throws over 20 yards with a 42.1% completion rate that compares favorably to Allen's 31.3% and Jackson's 28.9%, but behind Hurts' 50.0% hit rate.

Anthony Richardson as a Rusher

Hopefully we have now started to better wrap our heads around Richardson as a passer with more nuance than the "he can't throw"/"he can sling it" type of debate. So let's get to our main event, the wagyu steak of whom Anthony Richardson is as a player: His rushing.

Rushing provides a floor for fantasy scoring at quarterback and can open up tremendous passing opportunities if schemed correctly (i.e., the opposite of how the Bears have used Justin Fields for most of his career).

This 2023 NFL draft class does not have anyone in Richardson's tier as a rusher. Every single player besides Dorian Thompson-Robinson comes with a negative EPA per rush, with DTR only at 0.088 EPA per rush himself.

Jackson and Hurts ran a lot in their senior years. Jackson ran 17.9 times per game, Hurts ran 16.6 times. Allen also ran more than Richardson with 9.1 rushes per game compared to Richardson's 8.3 attempts.

Allen was the weakest rusher of the four. He ran for just 2.2 yards per rush (which, in college, does include the fallout from his 7.3% sack rate). He avoided tackles at a 14.3% rate, scored touchdowns on just 5.5% of his rushes, and had a shockingly unimpressive -0.162 EPA per rush. The body was willing but not exactly productive.

Hurts was much better. He averaged 5.6 yards per rush and a better 21.9% avoided tackle rate, a number that is surprisingly in line with Bryce Young in this 2023 class. Hurts had an 8.6% touchdown rate on run plays and a solid 0.058 EPA per rush.

Jackson's success as a rusher at Louisville is no surprise, particularly if you'll recall the ill-advised clamoring for him to enter the NFL as a wide receiver or running back. Lamar clocked 6.9 yards per rush and a great-for-a-RB-let-alone-a-quarterback 31.9% avoided tackle rate, and he scored touchdowns on 7.8% of his rush attempts, good for 0.159 EPA per rush.

Richardson averaged 6.4 yards per rush last season. He brought a 38.0% avoided tackle rate that would be higher than every running back in the class with only Bijan Robinson and college teammate Roschon Johnson coming close at 33.3% rates. Richardson scored touchdowns on 9.0% of his run plays and his 0.178 EPA per rush is the highest amongst Allen, Jackson, Hurts, and any quarterback you can find. (Justin Fields was at -0.008 EPA per rush his final year at Ohio State, since he was not included in everything here but I know one of you is wondering.)

Richardson grades out even against this lofty company as a transcendent runner. With avoided tackle rate generally a sticky stat in the leap from college to the pros—as well as his freakish athleticism and size covered ad nauseum at the combine—it's hard to see how Richardson can fail as a runner. If anything, it seems far more likely he'll be a mainstay on highlight reels the second he can break contain than someone who'll struggle to adjust to NFL speed.

Final AR-guments

Get it? His nickname is "AR." Don't worry, quality puns like that do not require an FO+ sub (though you can get one for 10% off with the promo code "SPAGS!").

My point, and reason for writing this article, is this: I have seen a lot of Anthony Richardson hate in the football and fantasy football communities. There's a lot of love too (shoutout to my fellow true Richardson believers). But it really baffles me how people cannot gravitate towards this guy as a prospect, particularly if you account for how great of a guy he seems so far off the field.

And really, I think a lot of it is a case of misunderstanding. You look at some core metrics or watch a bad mistake like that throw above against Kentucky, I can see how someone might file that away as "He's not good!" You see him soar up best ball drafts and hear people like me extol his virtues endlessly and he feels like some sort of meme cryptocurrency having a moment. You want to see him do it before you have any degree of faith.

From where I stand, there is no player more equipped for the modern NFL or fantasy football. There is no drafted quarterback who landed in a better spot with a coach like new Colts leader Shane Steichen, a man who has meaningfully mentored young guns such as Justin Herbert as the 2020 Chargers offensive coordinator and the last few years with Jalen Hurts as the Eagles OC. Anthony Richardson turns 21 on May 22 and could be a transformational talent in America's No. 1 sport for the next 10 years.

Do you want to be on the right side of history? Or do you want to be the guy who tweets or pops into a YouTube chat declaring that it's "reality" that Anthony Richardson will fail when we're still about four months away from the season?

I have done my best to articulate the case here to save the nonbelievers from themselves. The choice is now yours.


34 comments, Last at 31 May 2023, 11:58pm

#12 by guest from Europe // May 19, 2023 - 6:21am

So he could be somewhere between bad J. Allen and Jackson. If Colts develop him, in a few years he could turn into a good J. Allen. At least there will be some excitement compared to last year.

There is potential and talent. What will happen, we'll see.


Anything is possible and everything is unlikely with these future projections.

Points: 0

#16 by Chris Spags // May 19, 2023 - 10:06am

That's the best lens through which to understand any prospect. My pain point with Richardson is a good amount of people, including some in these comments, view it as some 100% certainty he can't be a good player or even get on the field in Year 1. I think it's closer to 90% he's on the field very early and then it's a 50% chance he comes out and is lights out for fantasy while he cleans up passing refinement with his quality coaching (aka not quite where he needs to be to win games as a passer).

If there are people that want zero, I want 50% since that far more accurately reflects his likelihood of success.

Points: 0

#20 by Aaron Brooks G… // May 19, 2023 - 12:47pm

He'll certainly get on the field. He was drafted too highly to bury.

What you refuse to acknowledge is that his floor is Nathan Peterman, with more leash. There is a real chance he's Ryan Leaf or JaMarcus Russell or young Alex Smith bad.

And there's a solid chance he'll dig a crater that deep. He was overmatched as a passer in college in a really discouraging way, and it's unlikely that aspect will become easier in the pros.

Points: 0

#21 by guest from Europe // May 19, 2023 - 1:21pm

J. Allen rookie -32 % DVOA, 2nd year -12%

J. Russell rookie -22%, 2nd year -62%

R. Leaf 2nd year i found -35%


Ryan last year on Colts -22%

So, two points: Colts can't be much worse and this will depend on coaching/development by Steichen. (Like with any rookie QB, bust probability is high.)  Maybe the scheme will be like those for 1st year of Hurts and Jackson, lots of designed running. Colts had great 2021 running with RB Taylor.

Points: 1

#22 by KnotMe // May 19, 2023 - 1:42pm

Zach Wilson when from ~ -32 to -16 DVOA and still got benched.

The QBase thing they use here actually has Richarson(-.95 TDYAR/A) behind Malik Willis (-.26 TDYAR/A). seems reasonable that he may not see the field much year one. (Willis looked....really over matched by the pro game). 

The Colts don't really have any options so it's possible he just gets thrown out there to give people a reason to buy tickets and they hope he can learn from it and not pick up any bad habits. 

I can buy that the running will make him a decent fantasy option no matter how bad his passing is. It's not clear to me how much he would get on the field. I can't really think of many comps of guys drafted that high who were that raw and the team didn't have any options. 

In terms of winning (and it's the's possible). Throwing Minshew out there for the first third/half/fraction of the season and hoping Richardson learns fast enough to help later in the season probably is their best bet. 

Points: 0

#31 by hifidelity // May 27, 2023 - 9:57am

Players don't get benched because of their DVOA

They get benched because of their ability to win football games.  This is where Wilson fails.

Jeff George had some excellent DVOA seasons and couldn't keep a job.   db gonna db

Points: 0

#34 by Sisyphus // May 31, 2023 - 11:58pm

Jeff George was a dick who alienated his coaches, teammates and the fan base. An encouraging factor for AR is that he seems to want to be coached. He has a lot to learn but he appears to be in a good environment for that. Moreover neither the Colts or their fan base are expecting immediate success.

Points: 0

#28 by turbohappy // May 21, 2023 - 5:43pm

I see him as having way too good of an attitude and too excited to learn to be Leaf or Russell. He could easily be young Alex Smith, although he has more elite physical tools which might change the nature of his floor.

Points: 0

#29 by Noahrk // May 22, 2023 - 12:56pm

Yes. When people talk about how bad he was they should remember he only started one year. Waldman gushes about what a fast learner he is, compared for example to Levis, who he viewed as unable or unwilling to grow. That's what separates AR from your typical toolsy prospect. I'm pretty excited to see how he progresses.

Points: 0

#32 by Aaron Brooks G… // May 30, 2023 - 3:25pm

He's the uber-Peterman.

I'll use his freshman season as an example. He threw two passes. One was a TD. The other was an INT.

That's his floor and his ceiling.

Points: 0

#33 by guest from Europe // May 31, 2023 - 2:37am

He threw two passes. One was a TD. The other was an INT.

That's his floor and his ceiling.

This is true for any QB ever.

I don't know anything about this player. If he plays like that, than his comparison is Winston, not Peterman. I doubt that a Peterman-like player would be drafted so high.

You are skeptical about Richardson's abilities, NewAround likes him and then there was a clash about future projections...

Everyone should wait for 2-3 years to see how any draft pick develops. All the projections are imprecise.

Points: 0

#6 by lenny65 // May 18, 2023 - 7:34pm

I'm not trying to be negative or deliberately contrary, but I'll be shocked if Richardson ever amounts to anything in the NFL. IMO the NFL is going to chew him up and spit him out.

Points: 2

#9 by Chris Spags // May 18, 2023 - 8:47pm

You are entitled to your opinion. If he landed somewhere besides with Steichen, I'd give it a higher likelihood. It only takes Josh Allen's rookie year rushing averages (55 rypg, 0.7 TD/game) plus 2500 yards passing, 15 TDs, and 14 INTs to have enough fantasy points to qualify as a Top 5 guy.

Points: 1

#13 by KnotMe // May 19, 2023 - 9:57am

It does seem like it's possible to be good fantasty qb(i.e. scoring) and a bad nfl qb(i.e. helping your team win). I guess qb running is really over-valued? I guess bc qb runs were rare when fantasy started(I think Brady and Manning were your top QB then) so runs have a big point value relative to their number of yards I guess. 

Points: 0

#15 by Chris Spags // May 19, 2023 - 10:03am

Yeah, Sam Hoppen at 4for4 outlined it well in that quote above (my bad for not initially attributing). Lamar and Hurts also had similar runs their rookie years with much more of a rushing leash than a passing one, 18-24 FPPG. So you're talking the floor/ceiling combo we all die for, particularly in Best Ball format.

Points: 0

#19 by Aaron Brooks G… // May 19, 2023 - 12:39pm

Fantasy is older than that. It started pen/paper/mail. Think Elway, not Manning.

Points: 1

#30 by hifidelity // May 27, 2023 - 9:52am

Yep.   When I saw that I thought Archie Manning

We played in the '80s

Points: 1

#18 by Aaron Brooks G… // May 19, 2023 - 12:38pm

Parent was talking about his real football utility, not his pretend football utility.

\this was once, nominally, a real-football site.
\\granted, it used to pay writers, too

Points: 0

#23 by Theo // May 19, 2023 - 10:05pm

There is still enough real-football articles on this site. 

Though, I am a bit baffled by the obsession with fantasy football. 

I played it for a few seasons but have never met a league that actually did what it promised. 

Players came and left the moment they realized they were not going to win. Has any of that changed?

Points: 0

#24 by dbostedo // May 20, 2023 - 12:13am

I've been in the same league with mostly the same members/teams for like 15 years. Many other friends are in similar other leagues.

If you're joining random online leagues, maybe you get that effect. But most people (I think) are in leagues with people they know, that stick it out, and want to come back for future seasons. 

Points: 0

#25 by BigRichie // May 20, 2023 - 8:57pm

If fantasy football articles pay their bills - which obviously is an issue for them - then I'm in favor of however many fantasy articles they put out there. (I can always not read those ones)

Points: 0

#26 by Chris Spags // May 21, 2023 - 10:10am

Large scale prize pools for best ball format are big to me. They're less data-obliterated than weekly DraftKings and FanDuel (which is still very fun) but offer the largest prize pools, including a $1m to first one on DraftKings and the flagship $3m to first one on Underdog. The shift of a focus to a draft rather than yearlong management is hugely appealing to me.

And also, I tend to believe there's more of a correlation between fantasy analytics and real life performance than people realize, both in the NFL and in other sports (NBA in particular). Being able to decipher who's a volume player versus who's a good player (i.e. someone who excels in DVOA/EPA/other adv analytics) is a helpful skill that many playing fantasy sports lack or don't have the resources on.

Points: 0

#5 by KnotMe // May 18, 2023 - 6:16pm

Just for reference who would be the guys you would be selecting AR against/Over? Elite guys would be off the board of course. But who would be your likely other options? 
Mac Jones? Tannehill? Davis Mills?  

(This may be a "I don't understand fantasy that well question" but it seems interesting to me)

Points: 0

#8 by Chris Spags // May 18, 2023 - 8:46pm

AR currently goes around Watson, Dak and Tua in best ball ADPs on Underdog, which is the most reflective market right now. I'd say he should be closer to Trevor Lawrence due to the upside and ability to win you Week 17 in that format, which is when the biggest prize pools are

Points: 0

#3 by Aaron Brooks G… // May 18, 2023 - 4:27pm

a subpar cast at Florida is still made up of scholarship athletes at an SEC school.

We liked to pretend that's the same as the DII-caliber team Allen had his senior year, but it's not.

Points: 0

#7 by Chris Spags // May 18, 2023 - 8:44pm

That is fair, though they are not quite what say Young or Stroud had. Closer to Levis on that front and he blows him away in almost all metrics

Points: 0

#1 by JS // May 18, 2023 - 11:39am

First of all, nice to see some content. Hope this all gets worked out soon, and hopefully the next thing I read from the core FO guys isn't the 2023 book.

Let's remember regarding comparisons to Josh Allen, the guy completely reworked his throwing mechanics, so AR being well behind Hurts, and roughly even with Allen and/or Jackson (a guy who many people - not me (mostly) - are not convinced of regarding his accuracy) is not encouraging. If AR is willing to change, and capable of changing his game, then yeah, he might be a good passer, but you can say that about anyone. High ceiling, sure, and for fantasy, absolutely. But hitting guys in the chest with the football is the sine qua non of NFL QBing, and Richardson is not convincing on that front. Also remember, you can't rack up fantasy points if you just punted.

Finally, I think it's worth understanding that for a QB who is a pocket passer, his job is in a real sense easier than a running or scrambling QB, as he has fewer options, and so fewer decisions to make. So a runner will likely learn competence at the NFL level more slowly. And Richardson has a LOT to learn.

Thus, I think the selling point for AR, at least in year one, is: lots and lots of running, and not so much of a disaster otherwise that they stop playing him. He might do better, sure, but don't expect it.

Points: -1

#2 by Chris Spags // May 18, 2023 - 12:56pm

I don't want to speak for anyone else but our full-time staff continues to work hard behind the scenes and remain prepared for the season and lead-up to it despite the ongoing issues. It's a stressful time but we're doing our best and I'm sure there will be more to come when things even out.

Re: AR, I ultimately think people view all these outcomes as binary when it's all on a scale of probabilities. What are the odds he hits some of Josh Allen's rookie rushing upside? 33-60%? That alone could make him pay off in most formats. If you account for Steichen's schematic genius (assuming we are giving a big portion of the Eagles' offensive growth to what he installed), I think the ability to hit that passing game upside also is closer to that 25-50% success rate. For fantasy, I'd much rather ride out the potential lows than miss out on the gamebreaking ceiling. 

And if people really want a pure pocket passer, then there should be a lot more affinity for Stroud given how he was a monster plus-EPA thrower at every level of the field. I personally get the sense the market is not adjusting to rookies' abilities to be Day 1 starters who create fantasy value, if not real value, on the field from the jump.

Points: 1

#4 by Aaron Brooks G… // May 18, 2023 - 4:32pm

Because QB runs are so valuable, Richardson could become the sort of team-killing/fantasy-darling QB we accuse Fields of being and that rookie Allen, Tebow, and lesser Michael Vick probably were.

He needs a lot of leash, though.

Points: 0

#10 by turbohappy // May 18, 2023 - 8:50pm

I think that is the most reasonable sticking point. There's no guarantee Richardson will be on the field _at all_ from the jump. Can't create fantasy value from the bench. Reports from minicamp are positive but they pretty much always are this time of year so grain of salt. I'm very optimistic on Richardson in the long term given his attitude, but that doesn't make him a day 1 starter. Colts have been clear that he very well may not be, that they drafted him for what he can be year 3 not year 1.

Points: 0

#11 by Drivster // May 19, 2023 - 4:49am

Minshew has enough supporters and a high enough floor to keep Richardson on the bench this year.  Especially if the Colts can hang around on the bubble of the playoff race into December which is quite possible because AFC South + mean regression.

If the o/u on games Richardson starts this year was at 2.5 I'd take the under. And I think we'll still be discussing articles like this one in 2025.



Points: -1

#14 by Chris Spags // May 19, 2023 - 10:02am

That is a really bad over/under. You don't get #3 market odds to be Rookie of the Year if you're not expected to start ~13 or more games. They've given quotes about their desire to get him on the field faster to accelerate his growth. Minshewmania is dead.

Points: 0

#17 by ImNewAroundThe… // May 19, 2023 - 11:13am

Yeah. That's an easy over. And for all intents and purposes YOUNG is the one 1st rounder that's gonna start on the bench it seems. Oddly (then again it IS Carolina).

Colts have been impressed by Richardson! And seem smart enough (remember Hurts started 4 games his rookie year then staved off rabid coded Minshew calls the next two year) to give the guy with little reps...uh...more reps. Minshewmania should be dead but thankfully the league shouldn't be listening to his fans. 

Points: 0

#27 by turbohappy // May 21, 2023 - 5:37pm

I don't think that's a great expectation either. I'd have to put the O/U at 8.5 because honestly neither 17 or 0 would totally surprise me.

Points: 0

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