The Touchdown Efficiency tool allows you to run queries that examine touchdown potential from the past three seasons from multiple perspectives and with various filters.
You may select any combination of the QB, RB, WR, and TE positions. A green highlight will indicate you have a position selected.
The Totals and Per Game perspectives are self-explanatory. The Per 100 perspective pro-rates player attempts — e.g. pass attempts for the Passing view and carries plus targets for the Rushing and Receiving view — to 100 to provide a common frame of reference for their efficiencies. The Team Percentages perspective shows players’ percentages of their teams’ statistics only in the games in which they accumulated statistics. That means the statistics of players on teams can add up to more than 100% if some players missed games in the query window.
The Minimum Total field references the appropriate attempts statistic for the view in question. For example, it filters on pass attempts for the Passing view and carries plus targets for the Rushing and Receiving view.
The timeframe options allow you to run a query with any combination of weeks selected within a single season or to run a query between a specified start week and end week, either within one season or bridging multiple seasons. Use the radio buttons to toggle between those timeframe options. For the in-season week selector, a green highlight will indicate you have a week selected.
In the results table, the Opportunity-Adjusted Expected TD field estimates likely touchdowns based on where players took their carries or saw their targets. Players score touchdowns on carries 1 yard from the end zone about 55.5% of the time, on carries 2 yards from the end zone about 35.9% of the time, and so on. Expected TD applies those average touchdown rates to actual player carries, and the metric better predicts future touchdown scoring than actual touchdowns do.
The Weekly Projections Surplus field compares actual player touchdown totals to our projected totals from the weekly projections. The ultimate Projected TD field captures those final projections combining our context-neutral Base TD projections with adjustments for the venue, weather, and opponent.
This tool relies on Sportradar charting, and its query results may not match those that use other data sources on this or other sites.