Kirby Smart, Bulldogs Take a Victory Lap

NCAA National Championship - The Georgia Bulldogs crushed the TCU Horned Frogs by a final score of 65-7 in Monday's College Football Playoff National Championship Game, an absolutely dominant performance on both sides of the ball to close out the 2022 season. In terms of opponent-adjusted overall game efficiency, Georgia's win was better than 99.9% of all other single-game outcomes in college football this year. The only game rating that topped it was a 49-3 blowout by Georgia over Oregon way back on September 3. The Bulldogs won 13 other games over the four months in between, most in not-quite-as-humiliating fashion for their foes. No, they didn't obliterate every opponent, and in fact they narrowly escaped a formidable threat in a semifinal win over Ohio State. Nevertheless, they left no doubt in the end that "peak Georgia" is unbeatable.

No one legitimately doubted that the Bulldogs were among the nation's best coming into the season, but it was reasonable to wonder if they would be capable of holding off all challengers to the throne and claim a second straight national championship. Georgia sent 15 (!) players to the NFL in last year's draft, an absurd churn of experienced, elite talent that couldn't be dismissed as insignificant. They were loaded and deep with blue-chip recruits to step in and fill holes at nearly every position, but surely there was the potential for a step back of sorts, right?

The 2021 Bulldogs defense was nearly impenetrable, and this year's unit simply wasn't as impressive statistically week-in and week-out. But it's not really fair to hold them in comparison to an all-timer when a merely elite defense would suffice. The Bulldogs gave up 0.6 more points per drive and 0.8 more yards per play in 2022 then in 2021. They didn't produce as many three-and-outs, and they didn't produce turnovers as frequently or effectively. But they still smothered several of the most prolific offenses this season and stepped up in the biggest games and moments all year.

Oregon (OFEI No. 6) led the nation in offensive value drive percentage in 2022, but put up merely three points on six non-garbage possessions in Week 1 against the Bulldogs. Tennessee (OFEI No. 4) averaged at least 6 yards per play against nine opponents this season, but only produced 3.9 yards per play against Georgia. Ohio State (OFEI No. 3) had its third-worst offensive available yards percentage output of the season against Georgia—although they put up 41 points on the Bulldogs, they also had five drives that went absolutely nowhere. In the championship game on Monday night, TCU (OFEI No. 14) mustered a paltry 188 total yards, only 140 of which were generated in non-garbage time.

Georgia paired its stellar defense with elite and efficient offensive production as well, and they found another gear in the postseason. Combined against LSU in the SEC Championship Game and against Ohio State and TCU in the playoff, the Bulldogs generated 1,560 total drive yards on 31 non-garbage offensive possessions, an average of 50.3 yards per drive. They scored touchdowns on 55% of their non-garbage postseason drives, and they punted only five times.

The Bulldogs finished the season not only ranked No. 1 overall, but No. 1 in both opponent-adjusted offense (OFEI) and opponent-adjusted defense (DFEI), the first team to do so since 2013 Florida State. Georgia tallied 2.3 wins more than what an elite team two standard deviations better than average would be expected to have against their schedule, the third-best "elite win rating" I have measured, behind only 2019 LSU and 2010 Auburn.

The 2022 Georgia Bulldogs will favorably be considered as one of the best champions of the modern era. And with back-to-back championships, they have put the rest of the college football universe on dynasty notice. Kirby Smart has to keep producing at this level for another decade or so to meet or exceed the dynastic standard set by Nick Saban, but Georgia is the standard-bearer for elite success today. And there is no reason to expect them to take a step back anytime soon.

2022 Final FEI Ratings

Fremeau Efficiency Index ratings (FEI) are opponent-adjusted possession efficiency data representing the per-possession scoring advantage a team would be expected to have on a neutral field against an average opponent. Offense ratings (OFEI) and defense ratings (DFEI) are opponent-adjusted drive efficiency data representing the per-drive scoring advantage a team unit would be expected to have against an average opponent unit. Net drive efficiency (NDE) is the sum of offensive drive efficiency and defensive drive efficiency data representing scoring value earned by offense and defense units per drive. Strength of schedule ratings represent the expected number of losses an elite team two standard deviations better than average would have against each team's schedule to date (ELS), the expected number of losses a good team one standard deviation above average would have against the schedule to date (GLS), and the expected number of losses an average team would have against the schedule to date (ALS). Ratings for all 131 teams are found here, and expanded ratings including projected win totals are found here.