FEI: Previewing Alabama vs. LSU

by Brian Fremeau

LSU and Alabama were the FEI preseason No. 1 and No. 2 back in August. They have occupied the top two spots in the ratings for all but one week since. Barring a shocking blowout in either team's favor, they'll likely retain the top two spots in the weekly FEI ratings after they battle this weekend as well.

Alabama is clinging to a narrow FEI margin over No. 3 Oklahoma State, and Stanford isn't far behind. But both LSU and Alabama will receive a boost by playing one another, and a close, fiercely competitive game will lay the groundwork for interest in a national championship rematch. That argument is still a ways down the road, of course. What have LSU and Alabama done to date to merit the extraordinary attention this game has received?

We're going to come at this question from a couple of different angles. First, let's resurrect the FEI resume comparison. I introduced this concept last season as a way to break down each team's game-by-game results into opponent-adjusted offensive and defensive splits.

The tables below are like an under-the-hood view of the FEI ratings calcuations. Game Efficiency, Offensive FEI, Defensive FEI, and "Game" FEI (GFEI) for each team in each game is provided. The ranking of those individual unit and game performances is provided. Note that there have been 438 FBS vs. FBS game played to date, meaning that there have been 876 individual game performances for each category.

The opponent FEI ratings are also provided, as well as a general relevance factor ("Rel") for that particular result for that team. As stated in the FEI principles, my system rewards playing well against good teams, win or lose, and punishes losing to poor teams more harshly than it rewards defeating poor teams. In the formula, the relevance factor is partly a function of the relative ratings of the two teams. The least-relevant results receive about one-eighth as much weight as the most relevant results. For simplicity, I've generalized the relevance data here into three equally distributed categories: High, Med, and Low.

The two teams have very similar profiles, of course, though LSU gets the edge on the strength of its tougher non-conference schedule. In terms of shared opponents, the games against Tennessee were nearly equivalent (though the Tigers played the Volunteers on the road) and Alabama's game against Florida was a bit more impressive than LSU's against the Gators.

The Tigers have had multiple field position advantages that have been exceptional, and as we'll see in the breakdown below, that may very well be the determining factor in Saturday's game. Football is an emotional game. When the lights go on for the biggest, most hotly anticipated regular season game in years, 100,000 fans packed into Bryant-Denny Stadium will feel it. You can bet the players and coaches will feel it, too. The psychological chess match between Nick Saban and Les Miles will play out in the physical, mano-a-mano combat on the field. We can run simulations and generate win likelihoods, but we can’t predict every possible bounce of the ball on Saturday night. What we can do with FEI data is present what we do know about the teams so far, and break down the field into the segments and critical field position situations that are likely to impact the final score.

Alabama on Offense

Ask West Virginia’s explosive offense what it is like to be pinned deep in your own territory against LSU. On September 24, in Morgantown, the Mountaineers offense started six drives inside its own 10-yard line, and four other drives started between its own 10 and 20-yard line. LSU punter Brad Wing was chiefly responsible for making West Virginia have to go the distance, and the Tigers defense took care of the rest. West Virginia racked up gaudy yardage in the game but had little to show for it. A Tyrann Mathieu interception deep in Mountaineers territory late in the first half put LSU on the doorstep for an easy touchdown and allowed the Tigers to play with a comfortable lead throughout the rest of the game.

On the season, LSU has forced 46 percent of its FBS opponent’s offensive possessions to start at or inside the opponent’s 20-yard line. The Tigers surrendered a score on only four of those 40 drives. Alabama’s offense has four touchdown drives of more than 90 yards this season, but even more importantly, the Crimson Tide hasn’t turned it over in that area of the field. Alabama has had 23 drives start deep in its own territory and has only gone three-and-out twice.

Expect a healthy dose of Trent Richardson if the Tide are pinned deep, as Alabama has rushed on 72 percent of its snaps inside its own 20-yard line this year. The passing game will be the real key, however. LSU was torched for a few big pass plays against West Virginia and Alabama quarterback AJ McCarron’s best yards-per-attempt rate (13.2) comes from deep in his own territory. Most of those completions have gone to Marquis Maze (seven catches, 150 yards) and finding other targets will be critical to loosening the LSU defensive pressure. Give the Tigers a chance to sell out on one or two weapons and they’ll make Alabama pay.

The middle of the field might make Alabama fans nervous. Three of McCarron’s five interceptions on the year were thrown between the 40-yard lines. LSU has recorded four picks themselves in that zone too, where they are holding opponent passers to only a 42 percent completion percentage. It is a dead zone for opposing teams against the Tigers: eight opponent drives started between the 40-yard lines against LSU this season and none resulted in a touchdown. Alabama wide receiver Darius Hanks has been most productive in this area of the field, however, catching nine passes on the year for 139 yards, seven of which went for first downs.

Generating drive momentum against LSU is critical. The Tigers rank third nationally in points allowed per drive (0.96) but have been susceptible to some long possessions -– 14 percent of opponent drives last at least 10 plays, a very pedestrian figure for an elite defense. Alabama’s offense specializes in long drives (22 percent last at least 10 plays, sixth most nationally), and it is through the middle of the field that those drives are made possible.

In terms of overall scoring percentages and touchdown rates, Alabama’s red zone offense and LSU’s red zone defense haven’t been too spectacular. But the key here will be whether the Crimson Tide can create a short-field scoring opportunity in the first place. LSU has allowed only one opponent drive to start in the red zone -– Oregon took over at the Tigers’ 20-yard line after a fumble in the opener. LSU held the Ducks to a field goal on that possession and haven’t made the same kind of mistake again.

When Alabama reaches the red zone, it will behoove the Crimson Tide to unload Trent Richardson as often as possible. Richardson has scored on one of every three carries in the red zone this season, while McCarron’s completion percentage in the same area of the field is under 50 percent.

Perhaps the most intriguing possible scenario is a goal-line fourth-down situation for the Crimson Tide. Saban is among the more conservative coaches in the game in those kinds of situations. In the last four seasons, Alabama has attempted 29 field goals from inside the opponent’s 10-yard line, more than any other team in college football. Going for it is a risk, but a failure would position LSU in a long-field situation that the Tigers aren’t well suited to take advantage of.

LSU on Offense

The Tigers don’t just pin opponents deep, they also avoid getting pinned deep themselves. LSU led the nation in fewest drives started inside their own 20-yard line last year (11.1 percent) and they’ve only had two drives start inside their own 10-yard line this season (LSU scored on both possessions). The Tigers special teams often positions the offense with starting field position between its own 20-yard line and own 40-yard line (42 percent of drives). Alabama’s defense faces this zone more often (34 percent of plays) than any other on the field.

And the Crimson Tide defense has dominated this part of the field. Alabama has recorded five interceptions in this zone, held opponents to only 1.8 yards per rushing attempt, and limited quarterbacks to only 50 percent completions. The Crimson Tide have forced three-and-outs or worse on 58 percent of opponent drives in this territory. It hasn’t been an area of strength for LSU’s offense, either. The Tigers are averaging only 3.8 yards per carry and 5.6 yards per pass attempt in this area of the field.

Jarrett Lee’s worst quarterback rating has come between his own 20-yard line and own 40-yard line, and he’s completed only 53 percent of his passes from here. His lone interception on the season came in this part of the field against Mississippi State, setting the Bulldogs up with their second-best starting field position of the game. Mississippi State wasn’t able to capitalize, but you can bet Alabama will if given the same chance.

The key for LSU will be avoiding three-and-outs, and running back Spencer Ware will be the biggest factor in their success. Alabama has surrendered 5-of-11 rushing attempts on third and short this year and Ware is 8-of-11 for LSU in those situations. Alabama has only given up one touchdown all year on drives started 60 or more yards from the end zone.

On the other side of the 50-yard line, inevitably, is where the magic happens for LSU. A big punt or kickoff return, a forced fumble, or an interception run back from the other side of midfield generates an opportunity, and the Tigers take advantage. LSU has made a living generating short-field opportunities over the last few seasons and last year’s Alabama game was ultimately decided on turnovers that positioned the Tigers in Tide territory.

LSU works the running game more successfully on the opponent's side of the field, averaging 5.1 yards per carry and handing it off on 77 percent of all plays between the opponent's 40-yard line and 20-yard line. Running back Spencer Ware is the featured back, of course, but they’ve spread the wealth with Michael Ford and Alfred Blue in this zone as well, each averaging better than five yards per carry in this area of the field. Quarterback Jordan Jefferson has seen action too, so Alabama will need to prepare for multiple weapons.

Offense, defense, and particularly special teams will dictate starting field position throughout the night. And field position advantages have been LSU’s bread and butter for years. If the Crimson Tide can keep the field balanced, they’ll be able to keep the Tigers off the scoreboard. But will they be able to limit mistakes?

Only two teams in 2010 didn't allow LSU to have a single possession start on their side of the field: Auburn and Tennessee. The Tigers scored their fewest points of the year in those two games: 17 and 16, respectively. LSU lost to Auburn and eked out a last-second victory against the Volunteers. This year, no one has been able to keep LSU from creating at least one short field opportunity. If LSU’s defense and special teams get their chance on Saturday, it will probably be enough to win.

FEI Projection: LSU 24, Alabama 23

FEI Week 9 Top 25

The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) rewards playing well against good teams, win or lose, and punishes losing to poor teams more harshly than it rewards defeating poor teams. FEI is drive-based, not play-by-play based, and it is specifically engineered to measure the college game.

FEI is the opponent-adjusted value of Game Efficiency (GE), a measurement of the success rate of a team scoring and preventing opponent scoring throughout the non-garbage-time possessions of a game. FEI represents a team's efficiency value over average. Strength of Schedule (SOS) is calculated as the likelihood that an "elite team" (two standard deviations above average) would win every game on the given team's schedule. "SOS Pvs" represents only games played to date. "SOS Fut" represents only remaining scheduled games.

Mean Wins (FBS MW) represent the average total games a team with the given FEI rating should expect to win against its complete schedule of FBS opponents. Remaining Mean Wins (FBS RMW) represent the average expected team wins for games scheduled but not yet played.

Offensive FEI (OFEI), Defensive FEI (DFEI), Special Teams Efficiency (STE) are also provided, along with Field Position Advantage (FPA), the share of the value of total starting field position earned by each team against its opponents.

Only games between FBS teams are considered in the FEI calculations. These FEI ratings are a function of results of games played through October 29. The ratings for all FBS teams can be found here. You can also find OFEI, DFEI, and STE on their own pages.