FEI Week 5: Overcoming Adversity

by Brian Fremeau

Over the course of the first few weeks of the season, I’ve been publishing "Revisionist Box Scores" for games in which turnovers, special teams, or field position decided the outcome of a game. They are important factors in any football game, and they are important components in the possession efficiency metrics I track and analyze. As listed below, the value of one or more of those factors has been the difference in 23.6 percent of FBS games played to date.

Not every team that falls on the wrong end of one of these factors goes on to lose, of course. The winning team in just under one-third (32.2 percent) of games has had a negative total turnover value for the game. And several have had to overcome significant turnover deficits.

The Duke Blue Devils had four turnovers against Memphis on September 22nd, including an interception returned for a touchdown and two fumbles in the red zone. Duke went on to win comfortably by 24 points, even after costing themselves 18.8 points in turnover value, the highest value surrendered by a winning team so far this season.

Ohio State eked out a 17-16 victory over Michigan State this past Saturday despite coughing up two fumbles and an interception without forcing any of their own. The Buckeyes barely overcame the 10.4 points lost on turnover value to win, and they were fortunate that a premature whistle kept that turnover value from being even more costly. Quarterback Braxton Miller fumbled in the fourth quarter and MSU scooped it up with a clear path to the end zone. The referees had blown the play dead, calling Miller down before the fumble. The ball was correctly awarded to Michigan State on a replay review, but the Spartans were denied a defensive touchdown on the play, which probably would have been the difference in the game.

Nine teams have overcome a total turnover value deficit of at least 10 points and won the game (including Michigan State, against Boise State in week one). Only three teams have overcome a special teams value deficit of at least 10 points. On seven occasions, a team has overcome a field position value deficit of at least 10 points, including Georgia’s victory over Tennessee this past weekend.

The Bulldogs started six drives at or inside their own 20-yard line, including two drives pinned all the way back at their own one-yard line. Tennessee held Georgia to 14 total yards on three of those drives in the first half, and followed up each of those three possessions with a short-field touchdown drive of their own. Field position was a bit more even in the second half, and Georgia took advantage to pull out a 51-44 victory.

Overcoming adversity doesn’t earn extra credit in the FEI formula, but the distribution of offensive, defensive, and special teams value will impact the opponent-adjusted unit ratings when they debut in two weeks.

Week 5 Revisionist Box Scores

This weekly feature identifies the games played each week that were most impacted by turnovers, special teams, field position, or some combination of the three. The neutralized margin of victory is a function of the point values earned and surrendered based on field position and expected scoring rates.

2012 totals to date:

• Net Total Turnover Value was the difference in 39 of 233 FBS games (16.7 percent)
• Net Special Teams Value was the difference in 19 of 233 FBS games (8.2 percent)
• Net Field Position Value was the difference in 28 of 233 FBS games (12.0 percent)
• Turnovers, Special Teams and/or Field Position was the difference in 55 of 233 FBS games (23.6 percent)

2012 Game Splits for all teams, including the offensive, defensive, special teams, field position, and turnover values recorded in each FBS game are provided here.

FEI Week 5 Top 25

The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) rewards playing well against good teams, win or lose, and punishes losing to poor teams more harshly than it rewards defeating poor teams. FEI is drive-based and it is specifically engineered to measure the college game.

FEI is the opponent-adjusted value of Game Efficiency (GE), a measurement of the success rate of a team scoring and preventing opponent scoring throughout the non-garbage-time possessions of a game. FEI represents a team's efficiency value over average. Strength of Schedule (SOS) is calculated as the likelihood that an "elite team" (two standard deviations above average) would win every game on the given team's schedule. SOS listed here includes future games scheduled.

Mean Wins (FBS MW) represent the average total games a team with the given FEI rating should expect to win against its complete schedule of FBS opponents. Remaining Mean Wins (FBS RMW) represent the average expected team wins for games scheduled but not yet played.

Offensive Efficiency (OE) is the raw unadjusted efficiency of the given team's offense, a measure of its actual drive success against expected drive success based on field position. Defensive Efficiency (DE) is the raw unadjusted efficiency of the given team's defense, a measure of the actual drive success of its opponents against expected drive success based on field position. Field Position Advantage (FPA) is the share of the value of total starting field position earned by each team against its opponents.

Only games between FBS teams are considered in the FEI calculations. Since limited data is available in the early part of the season, preseason projections are factored into the current ratings. The weight given to projected data will be reduced each week until Week 7, when it will be eliminated entirely. Opponent-adjusted offensive and defensive FEI ratings will also debut in Week 7.

These FEI ratings are a function of results of games played through September 29. The ratings for all FBS teams can be found here.