Film Room: Davante Adams

by Cian Fahey

We're not used to this. Aaron Rodgers isn't supposed to let this happen.

Against the Detroit Lions in Week 10, the Packers lost their third consecutive game of the season. They had gone unbeaten before losing to the Denver Broncos in Week 8. In that game, Aaron Rodgers had the worst game of his career -- or at least, the worst statistical output of his career. The quarterback threw the ball 22 times for 77 yards without a touchdown or an interception. He was sacked three times and ran twice for 31 yards with one fumble. At the time it appeared like an anomaly for the offense as a whole, but the warning signs had been there before the bye week when Rodgers completed just 16 of 29 passes against the San Diego Chargers.

It didn't prove to be an anomaly. Instead, the Packers offense has been a major problem over their past three games. Against the Carolina Panthers and Detroit Lions, the Packers scored 45 total points while losing both games by one score. Rodgers himself has thrown the ball 109 times in efforts to drag his team to victories from behind. He hasn't played at his best despite throwing for six touchdowns and just one interception over those two games, but the Packers aren't built for Rodgers to be just another outstanding quarterback this season. They need him to be playing closer to his potential as the greatest contemporary quarterback.

Rodgers is a mythical being. He is the quarterback who gets the "Give him 10 fans from the stands and he'll give you a top-five offense" treatment more than anyone else. We typically frame sports through memories, moments, and folklore, so the reach of individuals can often be overstated. With Rodgers, you have a quarterback who can make every single player around him better, but he still needs help. The Packers aren't giving him much help this season. Without Jordy Nelson, the receiver who tore his ACL before the start of the season, the offense is missing its second-best offensive player. Running back Eddie Lacy is on the active roster, but his performances suggest that he is out of shape and he was inactive last week with an ankle ailment.

Without Nelson, the Packers don't have a true No. 1 receiver. Randall Cobb is a talented player, but a much less effective one when he is the defense's primary option. James Jones is a good receiver who can win at the catch point, but would ideally be the third or fourth option instead of the first or second at this stage of his career. Davante Adams is the Packers' biggest problem. He was a second-round draft pick of Ted Thompson's in 2014, but has done nothing in his career so far to suggest he was worthy of that high of a selection. As a receiver, you typically need to do at least one of three things to be a productive player: consistently get open, consistently create yards after the catch, or consistently make contested catches. Adams doesn't excel at any of the three.

His performance against the Lions this past weekend epitomizes what he has been for the Packers' offense throughout this season so far. At first glance, it appears that Adams had a decent game; he caught 10 passes for 79 yards. However, he was targeted 21 times, and 15 of those passes were catchable. The catchable targets don't include plays where it appeared that Rodgers threw an accurate pass but Adams simply lacked the physical ability to catch up to the ball or disengage from aggressive coverage. Seven of Adams' receptions came against off coverage and went for fewer than 10 yards. He could only beat press coverage for receptions by running slant routes.

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Adams failed to make wide-open receptions or contested catches on five occasions in this game. This isn't one of those plays. This is one of the uncatchable targets that Adams saw where he did nothing to help his quarterback. Adams runs a curl route where he shows off extremely slow feet and generally laborious motion. He makes no aggressive action, nor does he show off a burst of speed to move the defensive back off his spot. When he gets to the top of his route, Adams is blanketed in coverage. He doesn't keep working to create a throwing window for Rodgers, meaning the quarterback has to fit the pass into a tight window.

Rodgers' pass isn't necessarily a bad one. He had no margin for error and needed to throw Adams open. The receiver couldn't even disengage from his defensive back to get to the football, instead showing off a lack of athleticism that caused him to weakly fall to the ground.

Compare this route to that of Sammy Watkins against Darrelle Revis of the New York Jets this past week.

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The above gif is (obviously) in slow motion. Watkins is facing press coverage against a dramatically more talented cornerback. Everything about this play is more difficult than the one Adams was asked to make. Watkins showed off fluidity and strength to avoid the jam attempt from Revis before throwing him aside to release inside. Once inside, Watkins was aggressive in pushing downfield to force Revis to overcommit to recovering against the seam route. It was at that point that Watkins used his quickness to make a decisive cut with his right foot to turn towards the sideline. Watkins was wide open when the ball arrived.

Watkins' route created a huge throwing window for his quarterback. Tyrod Taylor didn't need to try and force the ball into a tight window or throw his receiver open. He could even wait for him to come open instead of trying to throw with anticipation. Those aren't benefits that Adams ever gives to Rodgers.

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Early in the fourth quarter, Rodgers fit the ball into Adams when he was blanketed in coverage by his defensive back. It was a perfect back-shoulder throw that fit through the defender's coverage and into Adams' stomach. The receiver only needed to secure the ball and fall down because he had a lot of space between his feet and the sideline despite the defender's contact. He couldn't hold on to the ball, though, because of that contact. This was one of five similar plays in this game where Adams either failed to make a contested catch or dropped a pass he simply should have caught. Rodgers had to be perfect just to create this opportunity for the receiver. He also needed a stroke of luck for the defensive back's arms to miss the ball as it flew through the air. Yet, despite getting both of those things, Adams still couldn't complete the play.

On the rare occasion that Adams actually did manage to create separation downfield, he couldn't complete the play again.

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The receiver faced press coverage at the line but the defensive back held his ground at the snap instead of engaging him aggressively. Adams was given a free release and took advantage of it by hesitating early in his route before accelerating down the sideline. Aaron Rodgers dropped a perfect pass over his shoulder for what would likely have been a touchdown. Adams appeared to be uncomfortable trying to track the ball into his hands before snatching at it in the air. The ball bounced off of Adams' hands and landed out of bounds for another incompletion.

Adams ran a 4.56 40 time at the combine, not a spectacular time, but he doesn't even play to that speed on the field. His laborious ways didn't cost him an opportunity to catch the ball on this occasion, but it does consistently hamper his ability to get open downfield. This was highlighted on a previous deep shot between Rodgers and Adams that didn't connect.

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Like he had on the previous play that was highlighted, Adams was able to win early in this route. He used another hesitation move to set the cornerback up so he could release freely down the sideline. The defensive back touches Adams to try and slow him down, but his contact is minimal so it should have no consequential impact on what Adams is doing. Even though Adams is essentially unopposed with the advantage of momentum carrying him away from the defender covering him, he is unable to pull away. The defender quickly recovers his position so he is on Adams' shoulder. Rodgers tried to lead Adams downfield and threw what looked like an accurate ball towards the pylon, but Adams simply couldn't catch up to it.

These are the plays that Jordy Nelson made for Rodgers. Nelson is one of the six or seven receivers who deserve consideration to be in the top five at his position. He was a superstar whose loss was always going to have a big impact on the Packers' passing game. How big that impact would be would be determined by his replacement. Expecting Adams to step into his role was simply unrealistic. James Jones offers a greater margin for error and more consistency at the catch point to Rodgers than Adams does.

Having a hindrance on the passing game would be less of an issue if the Packers had more receiving talent around Adams or if they were a better running team. The Packers' offensive line is built to protect the passer rather than clear out running lanes, so Eddie Lacy was always more important than was actually appreciated. At his best, Lacy is a creative runner with the physicality to break through running lanes and potential tacklers. He was never an explosive back but was always quick enough and fast enough with a short-area burst to be more than just an effective NFL starter. With Lacy as an ineffective/unavailable option so far this season, the Packers have remained an efficient running offense, ranking 12th in DVOA. However, they rank 22nd in the league in rushing attempts per game.

In Lacy's place against the Lions, James Starks was the only running back to register a carry. He had 15 attempts for 42 yards with a long gain of 9. Noting Starks' longest attempt is important, because he is an explosive back who relies on big plays to be effective. He is a career backup who lacks the technical ability to be consistently effective between the tackles. Over the past three weeks, Starks has had a long of 15 yards while averaging 1.8, 3.9, and 2.8 yards per carry. Those numbers aren't coincidental.

Aaron Rodgers has made a number of uncharacteristic plays for the Packers over the past month or so of the season. That missed opportunity on the final play of the Panthers game stands out, though he had an even less understandable play earlier in the same game. A lack of trust has been pointed to, poor mechanics have been pointed to; hell, even Olivia Munn has been pointed to. In truth, Rodgers isn't the problem. He's not playing as well as he did last season, but he's still playing like one of the very best quarterbacks in the league. The problem with the Packers offense is that we have become accustomed to Rodgers elevating players around him to the point that those players then become overrated and the perception of their quarterback is warped. Jordy Nelson was one of the few truly great players they have had with Rodgers. Losing him was a major issue. Eddie Lacy may not have been a great running back up there with Le'veon Bell, Adrian Peterson, and Marshawn Lynch, but the drop-off from Lacy to Starks has been devastating when you consider the hit the passing game had already taken.

The foundation of the Packers' success is their offense. They can't afford to be inconsistent because their defense isn't a dominant unit. The franchise is still in a good position to make the playoffs and win their division, but a team's warts are typically highlighted more in the postseason. Right now, the Packers' warts are clearer than they have been all season long.