I'd like to thank Vegas for making the No. 1 team in DVOA three-point underdogs this week, making our Upset Watch choice fairly easy. The Rams have more rest and the 49ers have more injuries, but it's still easy to see a path to a San Francisco victory.

Over at ESPN+, Bryan Knowles takes a closer look at our numbers on the San Francisco 49ers. Why are they so high in DVOA right now, and are they a legit Super Bowl contender this season?

This week's ESPN Upset Watch looks at the two worst teams in the league that aren't the Miami Dolphins. But there's a surprisingly large gap between what the Cincinnati Bengals and Arizona Cardinals have done so far, and suggests the Cardinals could get their first win this week in Cincinnati.

This week's ESPN feature looks at the best defensive starts in the history of DVOA. The New England Patriots weren't the only team to take advantage of some bad competition early, but the rest of these teams continued to play excellent defensive football all year.

Oklahoma's Marquise Brown is a good wide receiver prospect, but the fact that he is this year's best speaks volumes about the mediocrity at the top of this wide receiver draft class. According to Football Outsiders' Playmaker Projections, Brown is the weakest "top prospect" in the past five years.

This article is available on ESPN+ right now. It will run here on FootballOutsiders.com next week.

Up now at ESPN+: We worked with noted NFL handicapper Warren Sharp to cover the best bets for every team in the league. Which teams will go over their Vegas projections, which will go under, and which should you avoid? And who are the best value picks to make the playoffs and win the Super Bowl?

Rivers McCown looks at five players who could be a little undervalued on the free agent market based on past play and athletic profile.

This piece for ESPN Insider looks at the best Super Bowl defenses of the DVOA era, where the Denver Broncos fit on that list, and what this says for their chances of beating Carolina.

By rule, two teams from the NFL's worst divisions will make the playoffs. Which are best positioned to make a run if they get there?

Hey, kids, it's my annual pre-Super Bowl numbers breakdown with Bill Simmons on the B.S. Report. This time, the Patriots aren't favored to win the game. Well, not by us, anyway. 50-50 all the way! We also talk about that other thing, so if you don't want to hear me say the same things I've been saying on Twitter about that thing, don't listen.