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ESPN: Week 4 DraftKings Matchups

At Insider, some of our favorite Week 4 DFS picks on DraftKings include Derek Carr, Jason Witten and Frank Gore. Stacking Randall Cobb with Aaron Rodgers against the 49ers is one foundation for a winning team in 50/50 games.

Each week I will recap the picks I made in the previous week's column to gauge the accuracy of my advice. References to rankings are for that player's position.

Hits

Carson Palmer - he finished as QB12, which is solid given how quickly the Cardinals went up 14-0.

Brandon Weeden - definitely wanted to avoid him; he scored 8.28 FPT. Four of the five value quarterbacks I suggested instead had much better days. Only Nick Foles disappointed.

Frank Gore - my contrarian pick, Gore stepped up with 22.4 FPT in what was really one of the best RB performances Andrew Luck has had in Indy. Tip: we like Gore again this week.

Eric Decker - why am I giving myself a hit for a guy who didn't play? I write these articles on Tuesday. Injuries are very up in the air at that point. I'm giving myself credit for Decker because in the article I wrote to monitor his situation and to pay up for Brandon Marshall (28.9 FPT) should Decker be out. That worked out.

Ted Ginn Jr. - 13.3 FPT on $3,300 salary? I'll take that. I didn't take Ginn in any of my entries though. He would have been better than some of these bad misses.

Misses

Ben Roethlisberger - I warned about the Steelers having a letdown, which did happen through both performance and injury, but I still supported taking Ben, who finished with just 6.68 FPT.

Jonathan Stewart - Ouch, he only had 5.2 FPT as Cam Newton had the big day for Carolina's offense with Greg Olsen coming alive.

Isaiah Crowell - Even worse than Stewart, Crowell only had 3.6 FPT.

Danny Woodhead - Okay, I had another bad week at writing about running backs. Woodhead finished with 7.3 FPT in an overall down day for the San Diego offense.

Giovani Bernard - I said to avoid him, but 11.3 FPT on $4,700 is respectable. Given the other bad picks I made here, it looks even better.

Allen Robinson - 10.8 FPT isn't terrible, but I picked the wrong Allen from Jacksonville. Hurns had a big TD that helped him finish with 15 FPT on a cheaper salary.

Doug Baldwin - only 6.5 FPT is pretty bad. I suggested too many Seahawks in an effort to take advantage of Chicago's poor defense. At least in the late matchup column I said Jimmy Graham was a safer bet than Baldwin and Marshawn Lynch, but this was still a big miss.

Jared Cook - Yay, one catch for seven yards. I wasn't the only one drinking the Cook Kool-aid this week, but he screwed us. Watching the game live, I knew things were going to be bad when Lance Kendricks was getting more targets than Cook.

Week 1 tally: 8-4
Week 2 tally: 7-5
Week 3 tally: 5-8
Season tally: 20-17

I'd rather not go into detail on my Week 3 DFS experience. Let's just say Roethlisberger's injury did not help Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown, and I should have had Devonta Freeman in more than one lineup.

Comments

3 comments, Last at 02 Oct 2015, 10:59pm

1 Re: ESPN: Week 4 DraftKings Matchups

by bigdumbjay // Oct 02, 2015 - 5:05am

This is great stuff, Scott. On a weekly basis, I read both your DraftKings articles on ESPN Insider and Vince's Fanduel article on Fantasy Insiders. I've been adding the projections from you and Vince into my DraftKings and FanDuel models for the past 3 weeks. An observation: although the written content is great, the projections provided seem to not be aligned between you and Vince -- I am assuming that DVOA is being used as a foundation for both, but I wouldn't expect such a big difference between projections. Take Andrew Luck for this week, for example. Even accounting for the different scoring between DK and FD, there is a huge difference between what you and Vince are projecting him on the two different sites. Furthermore, I have made some assumptions about the values in the tables you use (+/- vs. projection), and I believe I have made the correct assumptions based on dollars per point, though it is confusing. Suggestion: please explain the table columns in one (or all) of your articles in the future.

On another note, I understand the marketing value and exposure of FO partnering with third parties like ESPN and Fantasy Insiders, but it would seem to me that FO is uniquely positioned to provide premium DFS projection information in a standardized way (similar to KUBIAK) for subscribers (whatever that subscription fee would be), and there's value to that for those who have bought in to what you have established with DVOA. Please consider making this happen in the future, there are people who would pay for this!

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2 Re: ESPN: Week 4 DraftKings Matchups

by Scott Kacsmar // Oct 02, 2015 - 7:05am

Vince is working from the same file I am, but the real difference in the numbers should be based on the difference in FD/DK scoring.

Are you comparing the two by $/FPT? I'd compare them by where the player ranks on each site. For this week we have Luck as QB4 in FD and QB7 in DK. The +/- is adjusting points for the defensive matchup.

As for adding DFS to KUBIAK/premium, that's something we could consider for next season.

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3 Re: ESPN: Week 4 DraftKings Matchups

by bigdumbjay // Oct 02, 2015 - 10:59pm

Thanks for clarifying, Scott. I misunderstood what the +/- was. Given your explanation, I can see that the projections between you and Vince are completely aligned since he hasn't begun taking opponent adjustments into account, per what he wrote in this week's article.

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