Football Outsiders
Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis

ESPN: Week 17 DFS Matchups

At ESPN Insider, a tricky Week 17 of DFS action awaits with several teams resting starters for the playoffs. Some of our favorite matchups include Matthew Stafford, Melvin Gordon, Doug Baldwin, and Jesse James.

Each week I will recap the picks I made in the previous week's column to gauge the accuracy of my advice. References to rankings are from DraftKings for that player's position.


Alex Smith - it was a quiet quarterback week with only five players hitting 20 FPT. Smith was one of those five at least.

Blake Bortles - despite the interceptions, Bortles still finished with 28.38 FPT for a QB2 finish.

Matt Ryan (fade) - you could have done a lot worse than Ryan's 15.22 FPT since he was still QB14 this week, but I like to see a QB get at least 18 FPT.

Ezekiel Elliott - he was a minor hit with 15.8 FPT (RB17), but it sure would have been nice if he got a carry from the 3-yard line in the fourth quarter.

Eric Ebron - I needed a good hit like this given how badly I botched the wide receivers (see below). Ebron finished as TE2 with 19.3 FPT and was a better pick this week than anyone not named Antonio Gates (20.1 FPT on $2,500 salary for the future HOFer).

Jason Witten (fade) - I was wrong that Jimmy Graham would outscore Witten, but both failed to crack 9 FPT. Even Rhett Ellison had 10 FPT this week.


Christian McCaffrey - only 7.8 FPT on a disappointing day in general for the Carolina offense.

Alex Collins - he was actually outscored by Frank Gore in Saturday's matchup. Definitely expected more than 9.6 FPT, but the Colts played Baltimore tough.

LeSean McCoy (fade) - I was pretty spot on with McCoy's rushing projection, but he had good impact as a receiver too to finish with 19.7 FPT, so not a good fade candidate.

Martavis Bryant - I really blew it on wideouts this week. Bryant had a big catch early, but only finished with 9.8 FPT. It was indeed JuJu Smith-Schuster who had the big game (19.5 FPT) in Antonio Brown's absence. He even outscored DeAndre Hopkins by 3 FPT.

Alshon Jeffery - he didn't catch a pass in the game I called the worst of the year against Oakland.

Larry Fitzgerald (fade) - I feel pretty bad when I say to fade a guy who finishes as WR1 with 30.74 FPT on a week where no other wideout had 25 FPT. I always try to pick a high-salary guy to fade and didn't care for the options like Mike Evans and Tyreek Hill, who both also finished in the top 6 this week. So it was a good week for the second-tier receivers, but yep, I picked the worst option to fade here.

Season recap
Week 1: 7-4
Week 2: 6-5
Week 3: 5-8
Week 4: 6-8
Week 5: 8-4
Week 6: 4-8
Week 7: 3-9
Week 8: 6-6
Week 9: 8-5
Week 10: 8-5
Week 11: 5-7
Week 12: 7-6
Week 13: 7-6
Week 14: 5-7
Week 15: 7-5
Week 16: 6-6
Season tally: 98-98

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