23 Apr 2017, 10:06am by Aaron Schatz
Here are our QBASE projections for the Class of 2017. It's not a great year for quarterback prospects. Commentary includes a long discussion of the history of quarterbacks with only one or two years of college experience.
1 comment, Last at 11:17am by Karl Cuba
22 Apr 2017, 01:33pm by Aaron Schatz
FO writers have put together draft guides for all 32 teams, looking at three things for each franchise: the biggest need, a quiet need, and a position that is definitely not a need.
21 Apr 2017, 11:05am by Nathan Forster
Here are the 2017 SackSEER projections. We have no problem with the consensus wisdom that Myles Garrett should be the No. 1 pick in this year's draft. SackSEER also likes Solomon Thomas and T.J. Watt, but is a bit worried about Taco Charlton.
1 comment, Last at 22 Apr 2017, 2:38am by Adrian---
20 Apr 2017, 12:04pm by Nathan Forster
Nathan Forster is back with an upgraded version of the BackCAST system introduced last year. It suggests 2017 is a historically great year for running backs, but pegs Alvin Kamara of Tennessee is a likely bust. We'll expand upon this article next week on FO, explaining the changes in the BackCAST system made since last year.
3 comments, Last at 22 Apr 2017, 4:19am by Adrian---
10 Apr 2017, 11:47am by Aaron Schatz
Here we go with our first run of Football Outsiders team projections for 2017; this year, ESPN asked me to run them both before and after the draft. (The variable for adding defensive talent from the draft is calculated by using half the draft pick value each team currently has.) Bad news for Pats haters: New England ranks No. 32 in projected schedule. Controversial findings: Both L.A. teams in playoff contention, Denver near the bottom of the league, and a big rebound from Arizona. (I personally question the system on that last one.)
8 comments, Last at 4:32am by fsutouchdown
31 Mar 2017, 11:42am by Nathan Forster
Here are Nathan Forster's Playmaker Score projections for the top WR prospects of 2017. John Ross comes out as our No. 1 prospect even though Playmaker Score doesn't account for 40 time. Corey Davis has one of the strongest projections ever for a senior. Mike Williams comes out as a bit overrated -- not a lot, just a bit. As we did last year, there will be an expanded piece with all the Playmaker Scores for 2017 (both "rating" and "projection") on FO next week.
7 comments, Last at 03 Apr 2017, 1:44pm by Karl Cuba
24 Mar 2017, 11:59am by Aaron Schatz
Back before the playoffs, I wrote for ESPN Insider ranking the units of all 12 playoff teams. This article is similar, but looks at the top-10 teams at each unit after free agency. The FO staff had some debate on some of my decisions at QB and WR/TE, where it's difficult to figure out just how to separate a quarterback from his receivers. And can you guess which NFL franchise is No. 1 for one unit but below-average everywhere else?
7 comments, Last at 27 Mar 2017, 3:44pm by Aaron Schatz
03 Mar 2017, 10:56am by The Outsiders
Part II on ESPN Insider: As we did last year, the FO staff put together a bold move recommendation for all 32 teams. There's a lot of Alshon Jeffrey talk here. NFC piece is written by Vincent Verhei, Bryan Knowles, Andrew Potter, and Carl Yoder.
1 comment, Last at 03 Mar 2017, 12:34pm by jklps
01 Mar 2017, 01:16pm by The Outsiders
New ESPN Insider piece: As we did last year, the FO staff put together a bold move recommendation for all 32 teams. The Bills should let Stephon Gilmore walk, the Steelers should re-sign Le'Veon Bell instead of just franchising him, and more suggestions. AFC piece is written by Aaron Schatz, Rivers McCown, Tom Gower, and Scott Kacsmar. NFC will run on Friday.
2 comments, Last at 02 Mar 2017, 11:58am by barf
09 Feb 2017, 12:53pm by Aaron Schatz
Inspired by Brian Fremeau's similar article on losers of the NCAA National Championship, here's a look at the best Super Bowl losers of the last 25 years according to DVOA. These ratings include the playoffs and remove "sit the starters" games. You know the 2007 Patriots are No. 1 but No. 2 and No. 3 are probably a surprise. And, honestly... I may need to look into why we have the 2001 Rams so low next time I go to improve the system.
7 comments, Last at 23 Feb 2017, 9:42am by Topas