FO on ESPN: Feature Columns
Here's a closer look at the ten worst 0-2 starts in DVOA history, and what happened to those teams for the rest of the season. Some of them became surprisingly competitive, but usually only if they already had higher expectations for the year. Where does Miami into this list?
New at ESPN+: Which surprising Week 1 trends that went against FO projections will continue for the rest of the year? We look at the Ravens and Steelers, the Bears and Chiefs, plus Malcolm Brown and T.J. Hockenson.
At ESPN+, here's a look at some of the biggest NFL myths that have been busted by analytics. If you're a regular reader, you'll be familiar with a lot of these: there's no such thing as establishing the run, you don't have to finish the season hot to do well in the postseason, pressure rates tell us more than sack totals, you don't need to run more to improve play-action, and so forth. A good summary of things we have learned at Football Outsiders.
This ESPN+ piece, including contributions from Football Outsiders, includes betting tips for every team in the National Football League. The Saints remain our Super Bowl favorites, so betting on them to win it all is one of our obvious picks.
This ESPN+ piece counts down all 32 schedules for 2019 from hardest to easiest, based on updated post-Luck retirement projections. We start with average DVOA of opponent, then make some adjustments based on neutal-site games and when teams play opponents coming off extra rest.
Here's our annual piece for ESPN+ on which of last year's eight last-place NFL teams is most likely to go worst-to-first. Our Detroit Lions projection was probably the most surprising one in this year's Football Outsiders Almanac.
ESPN+ has our annual look at all 32 teams ranked by their talent under 25. This year we changed things to also consider value and length of players' current contracts. We end up with Cleveland and Indianapolis on top, and a couple of surprising Super Bowl contenders on the bottom.