QBASE 2016 (ESPN Insider Version)

This year's Football Outsiders QB projections absolutely love California's Jared Goff, who now ranks among the top 10 QB prospects of the past two decades according to QBASE. It is a lot less excited about Carson Wentz, but that comes with a bit of a caveat: we had to try to incorporate FCS prospects into the system in order to project Wentz, and the same method would have underrated FCS prospect Joe Flacco. We'll write more about the Wentz and FCS issue in an expanded FO version of QBASE to run next week.

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Comments

13 comments, Last at 14 Apr 2016, 5:16am

#1 by Will Allen // Apr 04, 2016 - 5:10pm

I have no opinion on Goff, never really watching him closely for even 1 game. I don't think QBASE is ever going to be useful for a guy like Wentz, because not enough FCS qbs are ever going to be drafted high enough to get a grip on what we are measuring.

Wentz may end up being great, but if I was a fan of a team I wouldn't be thrilled to see them use a number 1 or 2 pick overall, on a guy who has 25 starts on a FCS roster, and had his one start against a power 5 conference opponent take place against Iowa State. The guy has never been on the field, in a real game, against a defense which had, overall, even mediocre athletes, by NFL standards. It's a real throw of the dice, and dice throwing with very high 1st round draft picks seems very unwise to me, even if it isn't the total franchise wrecker it used to be, before the rookie salary scale.

Points: 0

#2 by mehllageman56 // Apr 04, 2016 - 8:32pm

I basically agree with this, but I would like to add another issue which no one talks about in reference to Wentz as a prospect. North Dakota State is the Alabama of the FCS, and that doesn't do that team justice. They've won the FCS championship six years in a row now; Marcus Williams led the Jets last year in interceptions, and Kyle Emmanuel was a mid-round pick of the Chargers and looks alright. Their left tackle will probably be drafted in the second or third round, and he said that Emmanuel was the best player he faced. The talent gap between North Dakota State and most of the players they face is huge, as is the case with the Crimson Tide. And Alabama quarterbacks do not have a good record in the NFL the last twenty years.

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#3 by Will Allen // Apr 04, 2016 - 8:53pm

Yeah, the guy just hasn't been in a situation conducive to thorough evaluation. Damned if I know how good he'll be.

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#5 by Will Allen // Apr 06, 2016 - 9:30am

If you are capable of actually knowing such a thing, and are not sufficiently incentivized to make the knowledge public, there are three possibilities, given that a person who had the ability to know such a thing would easily earn an 8 figure annual income. You either are 1)already employed by an NFL team 2) very wealthy already, or 3)indifferent with regard to having money. Maybe a combination of two of these three possibilities! Belichik, reveal yourself!

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#6 by rfh1001 // Apr 06, 2016 - 10:13am

I suppose the question you have to ask yourself is this: is there any chance that Bill Belichick might hang around on the message boards of wonky football site just in case one of the monkeys accidentally stumbles across, if not Hamlet, then a decent enough soliloquy. Does Bill Belichick care that much about gaining any kind of edge he can in a world where he has just been blatantly rooked out of his first round draft pick? Well, does he?

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#8 by mehllageman56 // Apr 06, 2016 - 5:23pm

Methinks Belichick would have someone check this site as well as a bunch of others, but that he doesn't have time to pick through everything; an underling would have to do it. I also think he would never post on this site, simply because someone from another team could be reading it.

However, the Patriots organization would certainly contact someone with the information you claim to have, rfh1001, with an appropriate offer. So, do you feel lucky punk? Well do you?

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#9 by rfh1001 // Apr 06, 2016 - 6:12pm

For reasons I apparently am legally obliged not to explain, I must desist from further comment on this subject, which I know so much about.

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#10 by calmyron // Apr 08, 2016 - 10:02am

For those questioning Wentz's credentials, watch him play in the FBS playoffs in 2014. He put the team on his back several times. He never panicked and twice he drove the team down the field for the winning score. You can also check the internet for an interview with his Offensive Coordinator from ND State. He said the team lacked the talent to keep up with Wentz. He even mentioned that in January of 2014 he asked Wentz to review the 2013 year's season and give him a detailed breakdown of what plays should have been run instead of what was run to have better success on each play. He expected Wentz to have that by the end of the spring semester. He had it done in 36 hours. He's a film rat and had a 4.0 GPA. He eats and breathes football. His OC let him suggest plays his senior year... he's the real deal.

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#11 by Will Allen // Apr 08, 2016 - 11:23am

He's the real deal who has always played against inferior athletes, surrounded by athletically superior teammates, relative to other college qbs considered for a top of the first pick. He may be great, but it is simply empirically false to say that we have as good a data set with which to evaluate him, compared to the typical qb considered for such a draft position.

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#12 by Eleutheria // Apr 13, 2016 - 9:23am

As a huge fan of Connor Cook, where did he end up?

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