Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

23 Apr 2017

QBASE 2017 (ESPN version)

Here are our QBASE projections for the Class of 2017. It's not a great year for quarterback prospects. Commentary includes a long discussion of the history of quarterbacks with only one or two years of college experience.

Posted by: Aaron Schatz on 23 Apr 2017

7 comments, Last at 26 Apr 2017, 2:12pm by mehllageman56

Comments

1
by Karl Cuba :: Sun, 04/23/2017 - 11:17am

I understand all the reasons why it's wise to stay away from one year starters, totally get it.

But I still think Trubisky's tape is right up there with some of the best college qbs I've seen; his game reminds me of Aaron Rodgers, I think he's going to be very, very good and I'd happily have the niners take him with the second pick.

2
by mehllageman56 :: Mon, 04/24/2017 - 2:07pm

I like his tape too, but there are bad plays in it as well, like the pick six against Stanford. It seems that the main exception that succeeded in the NFL with only one year of starting in college is Cam Newton, and he has succeeded due to his running and athletic ability as much as his ability to read defenses. Trubisky should sit for a year before a team trots him out onto the field, otherwise he may end up like Mark Sanchez and get exposed.

3
by Hoodie_Sleeves :: Mon, 04/24/2017 - 7:19pm

Newton missed a year+ because of legal issues, and left school as a junior - and still started more games than Trubisky, who didn't start until his senior year because he couldn't beat out a guy who didn't get drafted.

Newton is pretty much the only comp, and IMO, he's largely survived on his ability to run, and a fantastic defense.

4
by Karl Cuba :: Tue, 04/25/2017 - 8:44am

The thing is I was utterly perplexed when Sanchez started to be seen as a 1st rounder, yet alone the fifth overall pick, I didn't see pro skills in him at all. Trubisky though, he's got pretty much everything you're looking for and he shows it on a regular basis.

But yeah, one year starters have a dismal record, I understand that risk. I just think he's much more talented than those other guys.

As for the 'he couldn't beat out Marquise Williams' trope, in his limited time in 2015 he went 40 of 47 (85%) for 555 yards (11.8 ypa) and 6 TDs (+3 rushing TDs). I don't care if that's all garbage time, it's tremendous production and pretty much points to his coach making the wrong decision in leaving him on the bench. Of course I'd have liked to see him play that full year but I'm not going to refuse to take him just because his coach is a dope.

Anyway, I just wanted to get my call on him down; he's got the Karl Cuba seal of approval* as The Next Big Thing.

I quite like Mahomes too: great, natural, arm, the ability to maniplulate defenders with his eyes and a Roethlisbergeresque pump fake. The problem is that the footwork isn't tied to the structure of the play as it will need to be in the NFL. I thinks he's a guy that could be very good too if he can sit for a year because I think he'd get eaten alive if he was forced to ad-lib his way through a rookie campaign.

Kizer's inaccuracy scares me and the next time Watson successfully transitions his feet to his second target within the pocket will be his first time. Though Watson is quite good at throwing a covered receiver open, you have no choice if you can't get to your second read.

*zero dollar value

5
by mehllageman56 :: Wed, 04/26/2017 - 3:10am

Really not into any of the quarterbacks in this draft. I do feel Trubisky is the one with the best chance. I don't like Mahomes; as someone else commented on a youtube vs reel, He looks like an less experienced Mariota doing a Johnny Football impression. I don't get the impression that he reads much of anything back there, and is just playing backyard football all the time. Trubisky doesn't look like that, but I'm not sure how much he had to do at North Carolina in terms of second or third reads.

I realize he's failed in the NFL, but I felt Geno Smith actually did do second or third reads in college, he just took too long. Mariota did the same, but much faster; there was a play against USC where he looked at one deep pattern, and than another on the same side, and then tossed the ball to a back in the flat, and it didn't seem like it was all just a fake-out to the defense, he was going through the options really quickly. That's when Mariota had me convinced he could be a pro. Trubisky had some great moments this past year, but nothing that convinced me like that. Loved the drive against Stanford to try to tie the game; he threw three touchdown passes that his guys dropped before getting somebody to hang onto one. Too bad Solomon Thomas decided to decimate him on the next play.

6
by Karl Cuba :: Wed, 04/26/2017 - 6:35am

Well I don't know how to do cut ups or gifs but have a gander at the first play from this game vs Pitt; over through to his fourth read while navigating the pocket under some pressure. It's only an eight yard pass but I love the process in getting there.

http://draftbreakdown.com/video/mitch-trubisky-vs-pittsburgh-2016/

7
by mehllageman56 :: Wed, 04/26/2017 - 2:12pm

Yes, I watched that tape already, and you are right, he does look to the other side first and then buys time to complete the 8 yard pass. The funny thing is, that tape got me really psyched about Trubisky, but I also got really excited by Dejuan Price from it, because he was a real pain for Trubisky that game.