Football Outsiders
Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis

ESPN: QB Hope Index

It's the return of the QB Hope Index, looking at the odds that each passer from the last three drafts will develop into a long-term NFL starter. It takes into account performance so far, QBASE projection, age, depth charts, and even what college conference the quarterback emerged from.

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3 comments, Last at 23 Aug 2018, 8:25pm

1 Re: ESPN: QB Hope Index

"But the big disappearing act belongs to Paxton Lynch. Despite being a first-round pick, the QB Hope Index now rates him with just a 5 percent chance of developing into a long-term starter. Once a quarterback has been in the league for two seasons, his performance on the field is by far the most important factor in determining his chances of having a successful career as a starter. But the No. 2 factor after performance on the field is just being on the field. By this point, a high draft pick who will develop into a regular starter has either taken over as his team's starting quarterback or is specifically sitting on the bench behind a successful older QB."

I'm curious to know how this works. Aaron Rodgers is the canonical example of a player who was a first-round pick and sat behind a good QB for a few years before starting and becoming an excellent QB. But how does the system distinguish that from Lynch, who has sat for two years behind some bad QBs but is now behind Keenum, or Hackenberg, who has done the same and is now behind Wentz?

2 Re: ESPN: QB Hope Index

If they bring in another free agent to play in front of you, then you no longer are the "heir apparent" quarterback like Rodgers or Philip Rivers. I use the "heir apparent" variable when guys are clearly sitting behind a successful older QB, not someone brought in because the youngster isn't trusted.