Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

29 Mar 2018

Playmaker Score 2018 (ESPN version)

Here's the ESPN version of our Playmaker Score forecast for this draft's wide receivers. It's a fairly lukewarm year, and our favorite prospect is D.J. Moore rather than Calvin Ridley. This will also run on FO next week with an expanded list of prospects.

Posted by: Nathan Forster on 29 Mar 2018

1 comment, Last at 29 Mar 2018, 2:08pm by wabuffo

Comments

1
by wabuffo :: Thu, 03/29/2018 - 2:08pm

Ok - just like the QBase discussion, I have some thoughts about WRs. I like simple, rule-of-thumb, stats-only ways to quickly rank college WR/TE prospects. To me, a "playmaker" scores TDs - pure and simple. Either the WR has breakaway speed and can get behind DBs and outrun them to the endzone - or he's a big, physical guy that may not be the fastest but can outplay DBs in the redzone when open space is harder to find.

So with that out of the way, my stat is a simple one. TDs/Targets. Anything above 10% is what I'm looking for. Targets for college football WRs are hard to find but I did find them on another site (can't vouch for the accuracy).

Here's my quick ranking of the 3 WRs with highest scores above 10% among the 2018 draft class.

WR...........................UNIV..........TDs..TGTs.PCT
Tate, Auden..............FLA.ST.......10.....71.....14.1
Miller, Anthony..........MEMPH.....18....150....12.0
Washington, James..OKLA ST....13....120....10.8

Other top rated WRs like Calvin Ridley had low numbers (3.4%). The top WR was David Sills V (West Virginia) who was at 18% (18 TDs/100 tgts) - but he is returning to WV in 2018 from what I can tell.

No stat is perfect, and I have not tested it exhaustively, though my spot checks on past WRs seems like it could be a decent indicator of NFL success (though an imperfect one with lots of misses).

FWIW.