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QBASE 2018 (ESPN version)

Here are our QBASE projections for the Class of 2018. Baker Mayfield ends up with one of the best QBASE projections of all-time, and Josh Allen has one of the worst projections ever for a first-round pick. Everyone else is grouped in the middle. This will also run here on FO late next week.

Comments

9 comments, Last at 28 Mar 2018, 2:11pm

1 Re: QBASE 2018 (ESPN version)

by drobviousso // Mar 23, 2018 - 4:17pm

Does QBase incorporate cephalic index? Because Sam Darnold is downright Manningesque.

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2 Re: QBASE 2018 (ESPN version)

by wabuffo // Mar 26, 2018 - 12:51pm

It will be interesting to see what QBASE says - but I always look at a college QB's games against the best 3 defenses he faced based on FO's DFEI rankings.

Here are the stats for 2017:

Games against strongest 3 defenses
QB..........Univ..Comp..Att.....%....YDS.....YPA....TD..Int....Defenses Rank

Mayfield....OKLA.....67...97....69.1....975....10.05....7...2.....6th
Darnold.....USC......74..122....60.7....982.....8.05....7...3....11th
Rosen.......UCLA.....67..113....59.3....822.....7.27....7...2....32nd
Jackson.....LOU......53..112....47.3....820.....7.32....7...6....11th
Allen.........WYO......44...91....48.4....369.....4.05....1...5....30th

With a caveat about small sample sizes - I think the stats pretty much tell the story about draft order, IMHO.

FWIW - Mayfield and Darnold look like legit 1st rounders/NFL starters. Rosen looks like a back-up, Jackson will get a shot but maybe is a backup too. Allen looks like a possible bust-in-the-making if someone makes him a high 1st round pick.

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3 Re: QBASE 2018 (ESPN version)

by Clovenhoof // Mar 26, 2018 - 6:42pm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6b0ftfKFEJg

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4 Re: QBASE 2018 (ESPN version)

by Biebs // Mar 27, 2018 - 11:22am

I think I'm missing something here.

From what I can tell, the best 3 defenses Darnold faced were #6 - Texas, #7 - Ohio State, #17 Washington State (which matches your defenses ranked)
he was 69/ 123 917 Yards, 56% passing, 7.46 YPA, 3 TDs,4 INTs

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9 Re: QBASE 2018 (ESPN version)

by mehllageman56 // Mar 28, 2018 - 2:11pm

Thanks for doing the work and posting this wabuffo. I would say that Rosen's stat line isn't very different from Darnold's, just that he faced weaker defenses (He didn't last long against Washington, so I'm assuming you aren't including that game). Jackson's completion percentage is terrible in these games, but his ypa isn't bad. The TD/int ratio is much worse than his normal rate though. Agree with you about Allen.

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5 Re: QBASE 2018 (ESPN version)

by wabuffo // Mar 27, 2018 - 11:56am

I used Notre Dame (20) instead of Washington St.(17) - plus - Texas and Ohio St as Darnold's best 3 college defenses faced. I made a judgement call that while the stats indicated Washington St and Notre Dame defenses were essentially close, I felt that on a level playing field, Notre Dame was the better because Notre Dame's offense faced better opponents.

But you are free to use Washington St. I don't think it changes the story for Darnold. Good QB, probably an NFL starter. Using Washington St, the statistics even more clearly favor Mayfield as the better QB.

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6 Re: QBASE 2018 (ESPN version)

by TecmoBoso // Mar 28, 2018 - 11:24am

I'm wondering if a little more nuance is needed with Darnold? Only a two year starter, but sat behind Cody Kessler as a frosh (redshirted) who was good college QB and is/started in the NFL. This isn't like Trubisky not starting over Marquise Williams. Darnold then starts his next two years, aged 19 and 20. He's also 2+ years younger than Mayfield, which in baseball and basketball we'd view as a major advantage from a prospect perspective, but I realize QBs are different.

I was not a Mayfield fan, but QBASE is making me reevaluate. Can't wait to get more info later this week here.

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7 Re: QBASE 2018 (ESPN version)

by mehllageman56 // Mar 28, 2018 - 1:58pm

I'm posting the game stats for Mason Rudolph's top 3 defensive opponents in 2017:

rank comp. att. yrds % long td int rating
50 kansas State: 32 53 425. 60.4. 63. 3. 2. 138.9
18 TCU: 22 41 398 53.7 86 2 2 141.5
32 Iowa State 25 31 376 80.6 81. 3 0 214.5

The collective DFEI comes out to about 32nd. Ok state beat Iowa State but lost the other two games. Sorry I didn't add everything together but I don't think I'd be able to do the rating stat correctly.

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8 Re: QBASE 2018 (ESPN version)

by mehllageman56 // Mar 28, 2018 - 2:06pm

Oops, I guess Texas had a much better defense than I thought they did. Here are Rudolph's 2017 stats against them:

6. Texas. 25 38 282 65.8 66 0 0 128.1

Kicking out Kansas State, the collective DFEI comes out to about 16th or 17th. And yeah, OK state beat Texas. Honestly, I'm surprised Rudolph didn't end up doing better in Qbase. His overall career isn't very different from Mayfield's.

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