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ESPN: Early AFC Projections for 2015

As I did a year ago, I've done a "quick version" of 2015 projections for ESPN Insider. These are not the official projections that will appear in FOA 2015. They simply regress DVOA to the mean for offense, defense, and special teams each separately, then make some small changes based on injury rates last year and certain personnel changes. The big story out of the AFC projections: Miami, which was pretty good last year except on special teams, should challenge New England for the AFC East title.

23 comments, Last at 18 May 2015, 3:55pm by mehllageman56

ESPN: Teams Helped, Hurt by 2015 Schedule

We look at our early DVOA projections for 2015 to see which teams are impacted most by the schedule. Who decided the Jets only needed to play six true road games in 2015?

2 comments, Last at 23 Apr 2015, 2:32pm by RickD

QBASE 2015: ESPN Insider Version

Andrew Healy has developed a new edition of Football Outsiders' QB projection system, now called QBASE. The new system looks at overall college performance, not just completion rate, adjusted for opponents and for the strength of your teammates. This ESPN Insider piece gives our projections for 2014, which are surprisingly high on Brett Hundley and low on Jameis Winston. (They are also high on Marcus Mariota, which may not be a surprise.) Another article here on FO next week will detail the differences between QBASE and the old LCF, and look at the new system's historic performance.

9 comments, Last at 23 Apr 2015, 5:47pm by Grendel13G

ESPN Insider NFL Front Office

Following in the footsteps of ESPN's NBA coverage, ESPN Insider has put together a group of writers called the ESPN Insider NFL Front Office that mocks the conversations that would take place in a real front office. Mark Dominik serves as general manager, Herm Edwards as head coach, and Louis Riddick as director of pro personnel. Mel Kiper and Todd McShay take turns serving as director of college scouting, and yours truly holds the role of analytics department. This week we've been discussing what we would do with the top five picks in the draft were we running those five teams.

7 comments, Last at 09 May 2015, 4:06pm by SarahStewart732

SackSEER 2015 (ESPN Insider version)

Get a sneak peak at the top edge-rusher prospects according to our SackSEER system, which likes Vic Beasley and Randy Gregory but is lukewarm on Shane Ray and Dante Fowler.

2 comments, Last at 03 Apr 2015, 4:52pm by Led

Playmaker Score 2015 (ESPN Insider version)

Here are Nathan Forster's Playmaker Score projections for the top WR prospects of 2015. We've got Amari Cooper way ahead of everyone else, with some red flags for prized prospects like Kevin White (didn't produce until senior year) and Dorial Green-Beckham (didn't stand out compared to teammates). There will be an expanded piece with all the Playmaker Scores for 2015 (both "rating" and "projection") on FO next week, and then the same with Nathan's SackSEER projections for edge rushers: ESPN Insider next week and FO the week after.

1 comment, Last at 30 Mar 2015, 2:09am by Dan

ESPN: The Case for Trading Drew Brees

A couple weeks ago in a look at bold moves teams could make in the NFC South, I threw out a quick mention of the idea that the Saints might look to trade Drew Brees and become the NFL's first tanking experiment. Today's article for ESPN fleshes that idea out a bit more with a point-counterpoint of why the Saints should trade Brees to tank, and why tanking wouldn't work in the NFL.

15 comments, Last at 18 Mar 2015, 11:41am by KilsonFlob

ESPN: 2015 RB Speed Scores

Here are your Speed Scores for running backs who ran the 40 at the 2015 combine. Matt Waldman fave Karlos Williams is this year's Speed Score champ and a big-time sleeper. Melvin Gordon did fine. Colorado State's Dee Hart is undraftable.

ESPN: Russell Wilson Following in Tom Brady's Footsteps

"He just wins" is the most annoying thing someone can say about a quarterback, but the stats for Russell Wilson are too good to label him that way. Despite significant differences in how they play the position, Wilson's three-year start has been very similar to Tom Brady's first three years as a starter (2001-03). They both have an average rank of 10.3 in DVOA and DYAR (passing only) in those seasons. Fittingly, the Seahawks are looking to become the first repeat champion since the 2003-04 Patriots.

8 comments, Last at 27 Jan 2015, 4:51pm by Aaron Brooks Good Twin

ESPN: Where Seattle's Defense Ranks All-Time

Because I just can't get enough of writing about the 1991 Philadelphia Eagles, here's a look at where the 2012-2014 Seattle Seahawks defense ranks all-time. I ranked all defenses over three-year periods by harmonic mean of DVOA. If we Andreas Shepard's estimated historical DVOA ratings to go back to 1950, the 2012-2014 Seahawks are 18th and the 1969-1971 Minnesota Vikings are No. 1. This article also specifically explains why Seattle's defense was not as good this year, and how that changed in the last six weeks.

4 comments, Last at 16 Jan 2015, 7:33pm by Will Allen