Football Outsiders content published by ESPN

FO on ESPN: Feature Columns

ESPN: 2015 RB Speed Scores

Here are your Speed Scores for running backs who ran the 40 at the 2015 combine. Matt Waldman fave Karlos Williams is this year's Speed Score champ and a big-time sleeper. Melvin Gordon did fine. Colorado State's Dee Hart is undraftable.

ESPN: Russell Wilson Following in Tom Brady's Footsteps

"He just wins" is the most annoying thing someone can say about a quarterback, but the stats for Russell Wilson are too good to label him that way. Despite significant differences in how they play the position, Wilson's three-year start has been very similar to Tom Brady's first three years as a starter (2001-03). They both have an average rank of 10.3 in DVOA and DYAR (passing only) in those seasons. Fittingly, the Seahawks are looking to become the first repeat champion since the 2003-04 Patriots.

8 comments, Last at 27 Jan 2015, 4:51pm by Aaron Brooks Good Twin

ESPN: Where Seattle's Defense Ranks All-Time

Because I just can't get enough of writing about the 1991 Philadelphia Eagles, here's a look at where the 2012-2014 Seattle Seahawks defense ranks all-time. I ranked all defenses over three-year periods by harmonic mean of DVOA. If we Andreas Shepard's estimated historical DVOA ratings to go back to 1950, the 2012-2014 Seahawks are 18th and the 1969-1971 Minnesota Vikings are No. 1. This article also specifically explains why Seattle's defense was not as good this year, and how that changed in the last six weeks.

4 comments, Last at 16 Jan 2015, 7:33pm by Will Allen

ESPN: Romo, Not Murray, Can Beat Pack

Passing is more important than rushing, and thus the Cowboys need a big game from Tony Romo more than a big game from DeMarco Murray to beat Green Bay.

7 comments, Last at 09 Jan 2015, 6:44pm by Will Allen

ESPN: Race for No. 1 Pick Update

Here's an update on the race for the No. 1 overall pick. Tonight's Jacksonville-Tennessee game means a lot, but Tampa Bay still has the best shot at it. And check out the ridiculous dominoes that would need to fall for Washington to get the top pick!

ESPN: Where Contenders Get Beat

Today's ESPN Insider article looks at the biggest coverage weaknesses of top contenders, not by looking at specific defenders but rather by looking at scheme. That means using FO's DVOA "vs. types as receivers" as well as a new table we're debuting today that lists defensive DVOA vs. passes by distance and direction: short/deep as well as left/middle/right. You will now find that table on the team defense stat page and are welcome to discuss here. Thanks to John Argentiero for setting up the Excel macros that made producing that table easier. We'll be updating it each week through the end of the regular season.

ESPN: Brees Isn't Problem for Saints

If the Saints are only 4-6, then Drew Brees must be struggling, right? Nope.

ESPN: Race for No. 1 Pick

Analyzing the latest FO playoff odds and what they say about the race for the No. 1 pick in the 2015 NFL Draft.

ESPN: Over .500... and in Trouble

ESPN asked me to go through our playoff odds and talk about which teams over .500 were most likely to fall short of the playoffs. Remember, since there's no NFC South team currently with a winning record, there are only 11 spots for 17 winning teams. This features updated playoff odds which incorporate the Thursday night Cleveland-Cincinnati game.

ESPN: Denver Performing at a Historic Level

A look at Denver's historically high DVOA ratings, compared to where New England is right now. This is the largest gap ever between Peyton Manning's team and Tom Brady's team before a game between the two.

2 comments, Last at 02 Nov 2014, 8:59pm by Vandal