This week's ESPN Upset Watch looks at the close Baltimore-Pittsburgh rivalry, where the road team is 11-8 over the last 19 games. Tight ends could be key for both teams in this matchup, while the running game is likely to be bottled up on both sides. Cover Watch analyzes Green Bay at New England.

Looking at surface stats can be misleading, as is the case with Eli Manning, Andrew Luck, and other quarterbacks this season. Plus, how will the second half play out for each?

In this week's Upset Watch: Pass pressure will be key to Seattle's chances against Detroit. You can also expect to see a lot of rushing yardage, from both sides. Cover Watch looks at Miami, where Brock Osweiler has not been the problem.

A look at the 2018 Buffalo Bills and the ten worst offenses ever by DVOA. The Bills are on pace to pass them all.

Football Outsiders' preseason projections had eight of the top 12 teams coming out of the NFC. Yet six of those teams are now 3-2-1 or worse. What are their chances for rebounding and getting into the postseason? You may be surprised by the relative odds for Green Bay and Minnesota in particular.

This week's ESPN Upset Watch looks at how the Jets can use their improved defense to take down the Minnesota Vikings at home. Cover Watch looks at the Giants and Falcons on Monday Night Football.

This week's ESPN+ Upset Watch looks at how the Chiefs can beat the Patriots: Patrick Mahomes needs to perform under pressure and the Chiefs have to figure out how to improve their run defense. Cover Watch looks at Arizona at Minnesota.

Here's a look at the six teams with the biggest year-over-year improvement on offensive DVOA so far, led by the Los Angeles Rams and Denver Broncos. Wait, the Denver Broncos? Actually, yes, powered by a league-best running game.

At ESPN+ Chalk, here's a look at which teams are offering strong value when compared to Vegas odds, according to Football Outsiders' playoff odds simulations.

Here's a closer look at the FO playoff odds on ESPN+, with notes on how they've shifted and why certain teams have defied expectations. Included: How the Rams are running away with things, just what 3-1 and an easy schedule can do for teams such as Miami and Chicago, and why Houston is the 1-3 team most likely to climb back into the playoff race.