Eagles Facing Major Overhaul on Defense
NFL Offseason - In these editions of Four Downs, we'll review the biggest hole on each team in the division and then give a short look at each team's major free agents for 2023.
All pressure, blown tackle, blown block, and coverage success data comes from Sports Info Solutions charting. All cap data is from Over The Cap.
Dallas Cowboys
Biggest Need: Pass-Catchers
If the Dallas Cowboys can hang their hat on anything this offseason, at least they have their core for the next year in place. Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, Tyron Smith, and Zack Martin represent the offensive core. Defensively, Micah Parsons and Trevon Diggs are both still on cost-effective rookie contracts. Beyond that, the Cowboys should prepare for some turnover. At $7 million over the cap, Dallas has 19 players set to hit free agency, including starters at running back, tight end, cornerback, linebacker, and offensive line.
Regardless, Dallas' priority this offseason should be to add to the passing attack. One of Dallas' biggest shortcomings in 2022 was their passing game: the Cowboys traded Amari Cooper, then fell from sixth in passing DVOA to 13th in one year. Now, the Cowboys' starting tight end, lead pass-catching back, and two depth receivers could walk away. Dallas got a good understanding of the passing offense's ceiling with Lamb and Michael Gallup as the two lead receivers. The Cowboys have a great opportunity to re-invent their passing game alongside those two, but they have to do it while hamstrung by limited cap space.
Major Free Agents: RB Tony Pollard, TE Dalton Schultz, WR Noah Brown, CB Anthony Brown, LB Leighton Vander Esch, ER Dante Fowler, LB Anthony Barr, OT Terence Steele (RFA), OG Connor McGovern, K Brett Maher
This might be a philosophically challenging free-agency class for the Cowboys. Dallas loves keeping their own in house, but there are too many pending free agents and too little cap space to bring most of them back. That means Dallas is going to have some tough conversations over the next few weeks.
There are some easy choices when it comes to letting players walk. Dalton Schultz got tagged after top-10 finishes in DYAR and DVOA in 2021 only to take a serious step back in 2022. Some of the older players on one-year contracts such as T.Y. Hilton and Anthony Barr could also walk without much remorse. Tony Pollard should probably end up in this camp too. A long-term deal would echo the follies of the Ezekiel Elliott contract. Giving Pollard the $10-million franchise tag feels like an irresponsible resource allocation when cap space is tight. Aside from there being plenty of available running backs, it looks even worse when the tag basically cancels out the $10.9 million of cap space that would be freed up if Elliott ends up a post-June 1 cut.
Some roster calls are going to be tougher. Do you value Dante Fowler for recording 6.0 sacks and 35 pressures, or do you consider him a luxury because he only played 330 snaps in 2022? How do you respond to career years from veteran players such as Noah Brown or Leighton Vander Esch? Do you credit Anthony Brown for two years of improvement, or did his Achilles tear in December spoil any chance of a long-term deal this offseason?
Safety Donovan Wilson should be a priority re-sign. In his first season as a full-time starter, Wilson led the team with 101 combined tackles. His five sacks were the most by a defensive back last season. He also saw the most targets of his career and allowed 4.1 yards per target, ninth-best among all defensive backs with at least 10 targets. Wilson's market may get driven up by the shallow strong safety free-agent class, but Dallas should prioritize securing Wilson after a quality season.
New York Giants
Biggest Need: Off-Ball Linebacker
The Giants are in a curious spot because their top-10 offense was built on Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley, who are both free agents. Jones reportedly wants top-shelf money though his career résumé wouldn't justify it. Bringing one or both back would be tricky, but for the time being the Giants at least have building blocks on that side of the ball. Linebacker, however, was a weakness New York could not mask.
The Giants were dead-last in run defense by DVOA in 2022. Their 30th-place ranking in adjusted line yards came alongside a 29th-best second-level yards and a 28th-ranked open field yards. The team's best linebacker, Jaylon Smith, is set to hit free agency. If he walks, the Giants would be left with fifth-round rookie Micah McFadden as the only off-ball linebacker with at least 20 tackles last season. Getting someone who can fit runs and tackle in open field should be a priority for New York.
Major Free Agents: QB Daniel Jones, RB Saquon Barkley, S Julian Love, LG Jon Feliciano, CB Fabian Moreau, WR Darius Slayton, LB Jaylon Smith, ER Jihad Ward
Jones and Barkley, as stated, will be the top priorities for New York, and they will command a considerable amount of New York's $46.9 million in cap space. Beyond that, there's a pretty long shopping list. The Giants will look to add linebackers or defensive backs. They could stand to improve their offensive line, which ranked 24th in adjusted line yards and adjusted sack rate. If there's still cap space left in their coffers, Jones would happily welcome some new talent in the wide receiver room.
After that, how much cash will be available to re-sign key defensive pieces such as Love and Smith? If New York is looking for cost-effective re-signs, Feliciano would be a solid option. He took a career-high 919 snaps for the Giants and posted his lowest blown block rate in three seasons. At a $2.9-million cap hit in 2022, Feliciano is a serviceable interior lineman at modest cost.
Philadelphia Eagles
Biggest Need: Secondary
Hope you weren't too attached to that defense, Philly fans, because most of it likely won't be around next year! The Eagles had nine men play over 700 defensive snaps in 2022. Seven of those nine players are pending free agents. Philadelphia has over 7,000 total defensive snaps hitting free agency. So much of that defensive talent was built one one-year or expiring contracts, specifically in the secondary. 2023 pending free agents accounted for nine of Philadelphia's 17 interceptions and 45 of their 85 passes defensed.
Philadelphia built that dominant secondary on shrewd pickups from cap-clearing teams. The Eagles landed cornerback James Bradberry on a reasonable one-year, $7.3-million deal after he was released by the New York Giants. He then proceeded to lead all cornerbacks (min. 10 games) with a career-low 35.6% completion rate allowed; his 4.2 yards per target allowed was third-best among cornerbacks. Philadelphia landed C.J. Gardner-Johnson for a pair of future Day 3 draft picks from the New Orleans Saints, on the hook for a paltry $2.5 million. That's a small price to pay for a league-leading six interceptions in 12 games.
With $6 million in 2023 cap space and a lengthy list of positions to replace, Philadelphia likely won't be in position to bring back either at their new premium price tags. Their next-best cornerback last season, Darius Slay, is also the team's biggest cap hit in 2023 at $26.1 million. A post-June 1 cut frees up $17.5 million for a $8.6-million cap hit, but it makes defensive back an even more urgent fill for Philadelphia. Perhaps Howie Roseman can pull off more of his Executive of the Year magic, but any attempt to repeat as pass defense DVOA leaders will likely come with a new cast of characters.
Major Free Agents: CB James Bradberry, S C.J. Gardner-Johnson, DT Fletcher Cox, DE Robert Quinn, DE Brandon Graham, DT Javon Hargrave, C Jason Kelce, G Isaac Seumalo, T Andre Dillard, LB Kyzir White, LB T.J. Edwards, DT Ndamukong Suh, DT Linval Joseph, RB Miles Sanders, RB Boston Scott
The Eagles' upcoming free-agency class is all pretty much "major" free agents, if not by name then by role. Losing late-season pick-ups such as Suh and Joseph is just shedding the excesses of their Super Bowl run. Letting defensive end Robert Quinn walk after trading a fourth-round pick for him at the deadline is likely a bit harder of a goodbye. Each of the free-agent defensive linemen—even the hometown favorites such as Cox, Hargrave, and Graham—are on the wrong side of 30. Perhaps one or two could come at discounted rates, but any meaningful money should probably be spent elsewhere.
Offensively, the Eagles are in a slightly better position. Seumalo is likely to be the best guard in this upcoming free-agency class, and Kelce solidified himself is one of the best interior linemen in the league in 2022. Kelce likely will either return to the Eagles or retire. He has spent his whole career with the Eagles and reportedly mulled retirement last year. If the Eagles can retain him, they may feel comfortable allowing Seumalo to walk. Last season, Philadelphia drafted second-round center Cam Jurgens, a player reportedly hand-picked by Kelce to be his replacement. Jurgens could feasibly play guard in the event of Seumalo's departure.
The Eagles are also set to have two members of their running back trio hit the open market. It happens to coincide with a very talented running back free-agent market AND one of the deepest running back draft classes in years. If Philadelphia wishes to replenish the well, maybe they retain the situationally used power back Boston Scott. In general, though, they should have no problem finding a partner for Kenneth Gainwell.
Washington Commanders
Biggest Need: Quarterback
The Washington Commanders reside in a weird grey area with regard to the upcoming free-agent quarterback frenzy. They certainly could be in the market—last year, the combined efforts of Carson Wentz, Taylor Heinicke, and Sam Howell led to a 26th-ranked -10.2% pass offense DVOA. Heinicke is about to become a free agent. Wentz can be cut for just over $26 million in cap space with no dead cap hit. And Washington is surprisingly laid out to be a pretty appealing destination for a free-agent quarterback. They already have young receiving talent in-house in Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson. Two-time Super Bowl champion Eric Bieniemy is the new offensive coordinator/assistant head coach. The Commanders middling line performance (23rd in adjusted line yards, 23rd in adjusted sack rate) can easily be bolstered by this draft's strong crop of tackles.
The only problem? Washington doesn't seem very interested in taking a quarterback, at least publicly. Ron Rivera made an appearance on NFL Network in early February and said that Howell "most certainly can be" the Week 1 starter and will "more than likely" go into camp as QB1. Lot of wishy-washy language in there, but sure! Why not? Howell looked serviceable in his lone start, a Week 18 upset over the Dallas Cowboys. If Ron Rivera and the Commanders think they have something in-house in Howell, they can let Bieniemy work with him for a year and utilize the cap space elsewhere. The Commanders still need some kind of contingency plan if he isn't the guy, though, particularly a veteran. Washington has seen enough of Heinicke at this point to understand his ceiling, and Wentz's cap hit is too valuable not to utilize. A mid-level free-agent quarterback could provide some good competition for Howell in trading camp and serve as a good Plan B if they choose to go in a different direction.
Aside from quarterback, Washington's biggest need probably comes from the secondary. The Commanders boasted a top-ten defense with a 13th-best pass defense DVOA. Most of their production came from Kendall Fuller and 2021 fifth-round safety Darrick Forrest. Washington's DVOA splits against receivers highlight the lack of cornerback depth: the Commanders ranked 14th against WR1s, third against tight ends, and seventh against running backs, but 23rd against WR2s and 24th against "other" receivers. A second corner could certainly bolster an already decent start for a secondary.
Major Free Agents: DL Daron Payne, RG Trai Turner, QB Taylor Heinicke, C Tyler Larsen, LB Cole Holcomb
Securing Daron Payne is a priority for the Commanders. Payne led Washington with 11.5 sacks and finished second on the team with 31 pressures, per Pro Football Reference. The Commanders placed the franchise tag on Payne this morning, so now the issue is figuring out a long-term contract.
Beyond that, Washington is not really losing much to the open market. We touched on Heinicke a bit in the previous section. He's a known commodity who now no longer gets the benefit of knowing the in-house system. He can probably walk. Turner and Larsen could both be replaced on the offensive line with relative ease. Cole Holcomb is a quality rotational linebacker and could be kept at the right price. The core of this team, though, is already rostered for 2023.
Comments
43 comments, Last at 02 Mar 2023, 3:01pm
#6 by Aaron Brooks G… // Feb 28, 2023 - 10:52am
And? The need is a contingency plan. The number of starting-caliber NFL backups is like hen's teeth. Steve Young is like the only long-term backup who turned into a high-caliber starter, and that was pre-FA and salary cap.
You can get an outside competent vet. Why they might even turn out to be as good as Taylor Heinecke!
#9 by KnotMe // Feb 28, 2023 - 11:10am
I think you want the "Old dude who can mentor the young guy" and I don't think Heinecke is that guy. (and this said he's a FA anyway).
It's not like the Commands are really in GFIN mode anyway. Not bad, but I don't think they are a QB away either.
#20 by Drivster // Feb 28, 2023 - 2:13pm
I was mentally agreeing you want an "Old dude who can mentor the young guy" but then wondered if there's any actual evidence that this is a thing. Should Tony Romo get kudos for Dak Prescott's development? Or Matt Barkley for Josh Allen? Should we have higher expectations of Kyle Trask?
How bad was Jim Sorgi?
If the "grizzled mentor" really made a significant difference to the chances of your young QB becoming an elite passer, then he'd be a super valuable commodity. If Teddy Bridgewater could make a compelling case his mentoring was key to Tua's progress, then a dozen teams would sign him tomorrow....
#25 by ImNewAroundThe… // Feb 28, 2023 - 2:46pm
No QB matters outside of QB1. Well unless the other QB is taking reps away from them.
McCown was there for Darnold. Darnold is not good. McCown is getting coaching jobs now though, which is fine. Everyone wants a Steve Young chilling on the bench. Not really happening in today's salary cap, CBA limited reps.
#33 by JIPanick // Feb 28, 2023 - 6:18pm
"Should Tony Romo get kudos for Dak Prescott's development?"
A lot of Cowboys fans do give Romo a lot of credit for, if not necessarily Dak's development, but for his strong 2016 season. The theory goes that Romo moving from being a de facto member of the offensive staff in Dallas to the booth was at least partially responsible for Dak's 2017 and 2018 fall-off.
#34 by Spanosian Magn… // Feb 28, 2023 - 9:26pm
Everything I've ever heard from people who've worked in pro front offices is: 1) yes, having an older figure who models professional behavior in terms of day in/day out preparation, punctuality, strength+conditioning, etc. makes a tangible difference in a young player's development, but 2) there are plenty of those guys to go around, so it's not really worth much of a premium to get someone specific. I'd imagine in the NFL there's a moderate bonus to having that vet QB be someone who knows the current system, but with a relatively tight cap, it's hard to say it's worth paying much extra for.
(Put another way, it's not that a quality mentor will turn a bad player good, but he helps keep a talented player from going off the rails.)
#8 by serutan // Feb 28, 2023 - 10:58am
IMO what the Cowboys should do is cut Elliott, re-sign Pollard assuming the RB market keeps his price down and draft an Elliott replacement. But given Jerry doesn't seem to be able to make cold blooded decisions about home grown talent, they'll probably sign Pollard for too much and do a 'kick the can' restructure for Elliott.
#3 by Aaron Brooks G… // Feb 28, 2023 - 10:05am
Linebacker, however, was a weakness New York could not mask.
The Giants were dead-last in run defense by DVOA in 2022. Their 30th-place ranking in adjusted line yards came alongside a 29th-best second-level yards and a 28th-ranked open field yards. The team's best linebacker, Jaylon Smith, is set to hit free agency. If he walks, the Giants would be left with fifth-round rookie Micah McFadden as the only off-ball linebacker with at least 20 tackles last season.
And?
Off-ball LBs are worthless.
\or is the received wisdom subject to more caveats than is usually admitted?
#10 by KnotMe // Feb 28, 2023 - 11:14am
The Giants are probably the most interesting, esp what to do with Daniel Jones.
The non-exclusive tag may actually be an option as you probably wouldn't get 2 first for him anyway. Can you do an exclusive tag one year and non-exclusive the next year? (not sure if you can).
I can see tagging him so he can either prove he's good or drive his price down to something sane.
#12 by theslothook // Feb 28, 2023 - 11:44am
The Cowboys might have the most convoluted cap scenario in the league. By my count, they are going to need to resign Dak in a year or two to another big figure or risk playing the tag "you are it, but really I lose" game once again. Lamb is about to finish his rookie deal. And then Micah and Diggs are going to demand a massive payday.
#14 by Theo // Feb 28, 2023 - 12:29pm
Jones reportedly wants top-shelf money
Speculation is now reporting?
He has a new agent. That's all.
#17 by Pat // Feb 28, 2023 - 1:11pm
Kelce likely will either return to the Eagles or retire. He has spent his whole career with the Eagles and reportedly mulled retirement last year.
Kelce will return to the Eagles or retire. His contract is structured that way: he's not a free agent, he's under contract for '23 for basically vet min, but it has a poison pill: if he's on the Eagles roster on June 2nd, his salary becomes like, a billion dollars or something. Who knows. Doesn't matter.
Philly has 2 other contracts with poison pills like that (Cox and Graham), but they hit right after free agency. Those contracts are designed to be released at free agency with post-June 1 designations. Kelce's isn't like that, because you only have 2 "post June 1" designations.
Instead, Kelce's is designed such that if he retires, they release him June 2, and it's already post-June 1. If he doesn't retire, they just redo the final year and keep going. But he never actually will hit free agency and never will have the ability to talk to other teams. He has no interest in it, hence him being OK with having the poison pill at June 2nd.
Normally vets would never agree to that, because being released June 2 sucks, since it's after free agency (hence the reason Bradberry was so pissed at the Giants, and that was in May). But Kelce has no interest in free agency, which is why he was OK with it.
#24 by Oncorhynchus // Feb 28, 2023 - 2:44pm
Pretty good summary. Which makes this statement even more nonsensical:
Their next-best cornerback last season, Darius Slay, is also the team's biggest cap hit in 2023 at $26.1 million. A post-June 1 cut frees up $17.5 million for a $8.6-million cap hit, but it makes defensive back an even more urgent fill for Philadelphia.
They can't cut Slay as a post-June 1 cut unless they actually do it on June 2nd. (Because Graham and Cox will take up those two designations.) At which point they've already carried his salary that far and all the major free agents and rookie contracts have been signed. So sure they'll gain $17.5M in cap-space, but it's not like they can do anything with that money. I could see them maybe trading him (and gaining $3M) - but it probably makes more sense to do that before the draft than after June-1.
Plus why would you cut Slay?
#26 by Pat // Feb 28, 2023 - 3:03pm
Good catch, I didn't see that in the article since like you I mostly skipped over when Cale was talking about Slay. He's not being cut, his contract's going to be restructured just because they need the space.
I love OTC as a resource but I have no idea why Jason doesn't label poison-pill contracts somehow so people know that teams have pretty much already declared a player as a post-June 1 designation. The number of people who think Cox, Graham, and Kelce are actually under contract is fairly nuts. It'd be really nice if OTC had a better cap calculator, for instance, which allowed you to alter the date and mess with things to see how things change, and paid attention to the number of post-June 1 cuts designated ahead of time.
So unfortunately you get people playing around with OTC and thinking teams can do more than they can. Philly can't do much. It is what it is, there are no magic levers to pull.
#21 by Oncorhynchus // Feb 28, 2023 - 2:18pm
Who cares about the 4th round pick for Robert Quinn? Comp picks baby! Maybe not for Quinn, but they're coming. Somebody is going to be foolish enough to sign Hargrave. It SHOULD NOT be the Eagles. Same with Bradberry. Minshew and Dillard will go too.
Of the free agents, I think the only one they should prioritize is CJGJ. That's it. I'd prefer they go lean this year and clear cap space. That means not restructuring Slay's contract for cap space. I think they probably restructure Johnsons to clear about $10M. June 1 designations for Cox and Graham clear another $3M. Cut or trade Quez for another $2.7M. Extend Hurts and get another $2.5M or so.
That puts them at around $24M in cap space this year. They need about $10M of that for rookies (unless they trade out of the #10 pick). They'll also cut some of the lower paid guys (Josh Sills for sure!) and replace them with some of those rookies, so let's call it more like $7M for rookies. So $17M left. That's not a lot of money for more than two guys to come back.
I like Seumalo - alot - but I think he also probably is a cap casualty. (They don't save anything by cutting him, but they don't really have room to re-sign him). I'd put the odds of Kelce returning at 70%+ (at the cost of about $3M), so that means either Opeta or Jurgens takes Seumalo's spot. I think Pascal also comes back on a relatively cheap deal. Even so that's probably more like $12.5M available. That's not even enough to tag CJGJ. So I really don't expect them to resign many guys at all (unless they restructure Slay's contract). In addition to the guys in the top paragraph, I think they let Epps and White walk. Sanders and Scott are probably gone. (Suh and Josheph not really worth a mention, but yeah, they're not coming back either). I think (or hope) Howie tries to get CJGJ and Edwards, but otherwise I expect the defense to look pretty different. That's not a bad thing though. The offense is pretty well set. Just need to have one or two young guys step up and the defense won't look too bad. Maybe not top-5 next year, but also not bottom-10.
Things look a lot better in 2024 then. They've got an offensive core signed through 2025 and a franchise QB. Birds are in a good spot, but I think Howie needs to cut the fat this year and not drag it out.
#23 by Pat // Feb 28, 2023 - 2:33pm
Post June-1 cuts do not actually free up space until June 2nd. So Cox and Graham being released does precisely nothing until well after free agency is over. It does not, for instance, free up $3M for them to use to tag CJGJ. That has to come from Slay and Johnson being restructured. It's the only way to do it.
Additionally, cutting players like Josh Sills again does exactly nothing. Sills counts $873,333 on the cap this year, but they're in the offseason, so only the top 51 count. Cutting Sills just replaces him with Britain Covey, meaning they save... $3333. And that's it.
This same effect actually happens for guys like Watkins: releasing him does not save $2.7M, it only saves a little under $2M because he just gets replaced with an $800k player.
Extend Hurts and get another $2.5M or so.
Hurts counts for $4.8M in cap space currently, with $0.5M already dedicated. It is literally impossible to extend Hurts and generate 2.5M in cap space unless you plan on giving him a $3.5M signing bonus. Good luck with that. The only way Hurts's cap value won't increase with an extension is with a $16M signing bonus. Which, again, is not going to happen.
A Hurts extension is more likely to cost a minimum of $4M on the cap, and that would be a very, very team friendly deal. The math here isn't hard: it's just $1.1M + $0.5M + (signing bonus/5), and pretty much the minimum signing bonus would be $36M.
The math's a lot harder for the Eagles than you think it is, and you're not painting a rosy picture as is.
The offense is pretty well set. Just need to have one or two young guys step up and the defense won't look too bad. Maybe not top-5 next year, but also not bottom-10.
If they can hold onto CJGJ, they can probably put a serviceable secondary together if they draft a CB high and he pans out and they don't lose anyone for the season. Otherwise they're going to have a serious liability. I personally am a huge advocate for going all "2002 draft" and just going DB, DB, DB.
Of course, with Hargrave, Cox, and Graham gone, you're now relying on Sweat, Reddick, and Barnett (gah) for pressure, soo... yeah. There are no good solutions here.
#27 by Oncorhynchus // Feb 28, 2023 - 3:20pm
Additionally, cutting players like Josh Sills again does exactly nothing. Sills counts $873,333 on the cap this year, but they're in the offseason, so only the top 51 count. Cutting Sills just replaces him with Britain Covey, meaning they save... $3333. And that's it.
I know. I'm only counting this as potentially cutting into the money they need to set aside for rookies. That's about $10M. If you're replacing Sills with a rookie, then you can plan on using some of your rookie pool earlier. Same thing with Watkins.
A Hurts extension is more likely to cost a minimum of $4M on the cap, and that would be a very, very team friendly deal. The math here isn't hard: it's just $1.1M + $0.5M + (signing bonus/5), and pretty much the minimum signing bonus would be $36M.
Patrick Mahomes signed a deal with $10M signing bonus. Allen's signing bonus was $16M. You can absolutely sign Hurts to an extension that does not cause crazy cap accelerations in this year. Mahomes's deal is one such model. Give him guarantees for injury. Have rolling roster bonus and salary guarantees. Make it longer than 5 years and spread the bonus out. They can figure this out. This one is easy. They can reduce his cap hit by converting his 2023 salary to a bonus and prorating it - but they can only do that if they get a contract signed (which means like in the next two weeks). That's less easy.
If they can hold onto CJGJ, they can probably put a serviceable secondary together if they draft a CB high and he pans out and they don't lose anyone for the season. Otherwise they're going to have a serious liability. I personally am a huge advocate for going all "2002 draft" and just going DB, DB, DB.
Of course, with Hargrave, Cox, and Graham gone, you're now relying on Sweat, Reddick, and Barnett (gah) for pressure, soo... yeah. There are no good solutions here.
Yeah, there are never any good solutions in Negadelphia. Luckily we don't all live there.
Barnett is fine. He's 100% absolutely fine. Perfectly adequate. I'm fine with paying an edge rusher $7M to be completely okay. On the interior Davis, Tuipolutu, and Williams with just have to step up - and each of them has already shown signs they can do so. Sweat, Reddick, and replacement level guy are actually a pretty good set of edge rushers.
As for the secondary: sure they should draft some guys, but they should also play the guys they have. Players develop, players emerge. The reason it's okay if Epps walk is because Blankenship has proved himself. Yet, Epps himself was a guy who proved himself. Edwards at LB too (another UDFA). So they take a step back. Maybe they're more like say, the 15th ranked defense pass defense than the #1 ranked defense. So what? That defense didn't win them the Superbowl. The team with the 20th ranked pass defense won the Superbowl. Offense wins championships. The Eagles are setup to have a top-5 offense next year. They have no holes to fill there except WR3. The defense is more half-full than it is half-empty. So you don't have Bradberry. You might not even have CJGJ. Who cares? Let the kids play.
It's ok to feel good about things in Philadelphia. I promise you, no one will make fun of you. Drink some wudder. Go to your favorite jawn and tell 'em you seen the light. Talk about the Fightin's 'til September comes. It's okay.
#30 by Pat // Feb 28, 2023 - 4:11pm
You can absolutely sign Hurts to an extension that does not cause crazy cap accelerations in this year.
Yes, but:
- Not one that saves any cap space on Hurts's current contract, like you suggested
- Using Mahomes's contract as an example doesn't exactly work considering it was a serious outlier and 2 years ago.
If they can get Hurts to sign a Mahomes-like contract, awesome. But it's as much an outlier as Watson's is on the team side.
They can reduce his cap hit by converting his 2023 salary to a bonus and prorating it
I very, very clearly explained why this doesn't work. The only way you can reduce his cap hit is by giving him almost no more money than he's already due. Effectively zero signing bonus. If you can get him to agree to a contract extension that has zero new money up front (effectively "wait a year and we'll pay you") it would be the most team friendly contract of all time.
It's never happened. Mahomes's contract would not reduce Hurts's cap number in his signing year. Allen's contract would not reduce Hurts's cap number in his signing year. And both Mahomes and Allen had two years left on their rookie deals, not one year.
Barnett is fine. He's 100% absolutely fine. Perfectly adequate.
The defense is more half-full than it is half-empty.
Funny turn of phrase, because the defense right now is actually literally more than half-empty. They are currently losing 7,276 defensive snaps in total to players not on the roster currently, out of 12,166. Or 59.8%.
This is literally just being even-handed. I would love it if Blankenship continued to prove he's a UDFA gem. It'd be great if they nail the draft and things are awesome. Hell, I'd be thrilled if Barnett just could contribute more yardage on sacks and TFLs than he gives back in penalties!
All of these things are possible. But again - I'm realistic. I recognize that the only player that they lost for the year due to injury was a total surplus player. And then they went out and had to spend several million during the year for to plug up holes anyway. I'm not being super-negative. They have 2 first round picks. It's an awesome draft for CBs. It's totally set up for them to rebuild the secondary, maybe grab a second-round edge rusher and hopefully coast on the offense. But all of those things are coin flips. Which is fine. I'm fine with a coin flip for '23 considering how '22 turned out.
It is a wacky, wacky world where I'm being called a Negadelphian for the bold, bold statement that Derek Barnett is a net negative.
#32 by Oncorhynchus // Feb 28, 2023 - 5:38pm
So you have a link to show me that Derek Barnett led the Eagles in penalties in 2021? Maxx Crosby had the same number of penalties for more yards. Maxx Crosby must suck.
How about in 2020? In that year, he had fewer penalties and fewer penalty yards than Brandon Graham. He had 5.5 sacks compared to Graham's 8. He was 20th among DEs in penalty yards per game behind players like Myles Garrett, Graham, Montez Sweat, Frank Clark, Cam Jordan, Maxx Crosby (again), Demarcus Lawrence. He had 29 sack yards to 25 penalty yards. So there ya go.
In 2019, sure, he was near the top of the list of DEs in penalty yards/game again, but not #1 (Demarcus Lawrence and Calais Campbell had more). He also had 6.5 sacks which was 2nd highest among all Eagles.
He's never led the league in penalties. He's never led the league in sacks. He's cheaper than 38 DEs on an APY basis. On a cap percentage basis, he's equivalent to a 1st round rookie (~2% of cap). He's producing more than half of Graham's production (even after accounting for penalties) at less than half the cost.
He's perfectly cromulent even with the penalties. He is not a net negative. He's fine. His production is commensurate with his cost. Just call him Great Value Brand Graham. If you're drunk, you can't tell the difference.
The defense needs to get younger and cheaper. That comes with losing players who have accumulated a lot of snaps. Of those 7,276 snaps, 3,065 are for players that will over 30 years old next season (Bradberry 1078, Cox 713, Graham 474, Hargrave 712, Quinn 88). Let 'em go.
The Eagles did not need to spend several million dollars last year to plug holes. Those were luxury moves. Surprisingly prudent and frugal luxury moves. But because of those moves, we have no idea what the young guys on the roster can do. The Eagles have 3 DT, 3 CB, and 3 LBs under 24 years old. Let the kids play.
At some point you have to take a risk. Picks and cap spaces are limited resources. Sometimes you have to bet on a guy before you know if he can cut it. I seem to recall that working out once or twice. (See further: Hurts, Jalen)
#35 by Pat // Mar 01, 2023 - 12:09am
Dude, the only part we're disagreeing about is that for some reason you think keeping a guy on a roster who's.averaged like 4 sacks a year "fine." Whatever. Let's keep comparing him to Maxx Crosby, who has had just about 2x his production. You're welcome to your opinion on Barnett. If you can't see how someone would disagree, I'm not the one who's views are colored by being a fan.
Everything else you're totally misunderstanding what I'm saying. Of course they have to go younger. Of course they can't keep guys who played under a head coach 3 administrations back. I'm not criticizing the decisions.
Until the draft and free agency happens, I *cannot* have a positive opinion on Philly. I also can't have a *negative* opinion. I can't have any opinion, because the team basically doesn't exist. And the "default" opinion on a nonexistent team is below average.
I do know they basically can't do anything in free agency unless they're heavily helped out by players, which is exceptionally rare league-wide. As I've been saying, many times, for me it's all about the draft. I would've loved to get CJ, Bradberry, Seumalo, Edwards, or Hargrave, but the fact that none of them were extended previously is a strong sign they're not coming back.
#38 by Oncorhynchus // Mar 01, 2023 - 3:45pm
Let's keep comparing him to Maxx Crosby, who has had just about 2x his production.
And who is 3x the cost! Dude, this is not hard. Do the math on sacks per dollar. That's why I call Derek Barnett "Great Value Brandon Graham." I'm not arguing that Derek Barnett is a star player. But I am saying that he's good guy to have in the rotation. Maybe you luck out and a get a rookie who can produce more at a similar or lesser cost. But then that's a draft pick you didn't use on the secondary - and there is no guarantee if you use a pick that you get a guy who can hang. You're free to disagree. I'm not a Derek Barnett stan. I'm simply the one making an objective comparison certainty of production versus cost.
Maybe I'm misunderstanding what you're saying because it doesn't make sense. These sentences are incompatible: "Of course they have to go younger." and "I would've loved to get Bradberry or Hargrave."
#41 by Pat // Mar 02, 2023 - 11:48am
Do the math on sacks per dollar. That's why I call Derek Barnett "Great Value Brandon Graham."
Sacks per dollar is a terrible way to judge someone in a significant role. If I get 1 sack from a guy on minimum salary starting all season and 16 sacks from a guy that's 20x the cost in the same situation, the min salary guy is better sacks/dollar, but you've got one of the worst pass rushes in the league.
This is the same argument people use to justify getting tons of late round picks, and it's the same problem. I can't put 20 guys out on the field making min-salary to replace the production from 1 guy at 20x their cost.
Maybe you luck out and a get a rookie who can produce more at a similar or lesser cost.
Again - it's not about cost/dollar. It's about getting a high-level athlete at edge rusher. Barnett is not, and never will be, a high-level athlete at edge. That's well established at this point. You're welcome to your opinion on Barnett, but every single valuation of him out there has him being worth less than Philly paid for him, and that was already cheap for an edge rusher. PFF never had him above a grade of 70 (so never even above average), and based on his statistics, OTC had him at a valuation of like $3M.
Oh! And we haven't even mentioned the fact that the injury he had in '22 was an ACL tear.
I'm not being a "negative Philly fan" on Barnett. I actually supported keeping Barnett on the 5th year option, and I don't actually think he's as bad as PFF/OTC have him. But he showed no growth whatsoever in '21 and then tore his ACL in '22. Putting him into a significant role in '23 is objectively a bad option, by any measure. In the end, Philly won't cut him, because it's totally pointless to cut him because of his contract. Any attempt to cut him increases his cap hit.
You have to try to get someone with high-level athlete potential at that position. That's the entire reason you draft guys. No one drafted later than the 5th round had more than 8 sacks last year. You basically don't find diamonds late in the draft or undrafted at edge rusher. And the "young guys" that Philly has are all very late round picks.
Now, if your entire argument is "yes, but they've already got Sweat and Reddick who are both high-end rushers, that's good enough," I'll just respectfully disagree.
These sentences are incompatible: "Of course they have to go younger." and "I would've loved to get Bradberry or Hargrave."
They're not even close to incompatible?
Bradberry and Hargrave both easily have another year left. I would've loved if they had gotten Bradberry on a 2-year contract or Hargrave had had an additional year on his contract. Or if they could sign them to an additional 1-year contract.
But that's not going to happen due to the cap situation they're in, and how Bradberry and Hargrave performed last year. Philly has to go younger because they have very little ability to rent guys for a year anymore, especially guys who'll command 8-figure salaries. The only practical way they have to fill out the roster with high-level athletes is via the draft.
They need (right now) high-level athletes in the secondary and at pass rush, and they have no real ability to get them from free agency. So, the draft it is.
Again. This isn't a bad situation for them to be in. They have plenty of draft resources. They have a solid offensive plan. But the draft and free agency are out of your control, so until it happens, it's impossible for me to have a positive or negative opinion.
#42 by Oncorhynchus // Mar 02, 2023 - 1:05pm
"You have to try to get someone with high-level athlete potential at that position. That's the entire reason you draft guys. No one drafted later than the 5th round had more than 8 sacks last year."
Aside from that being a weird bar to set, only 29 players had more than 8 sacks last year. The Eagles 4 of them. No other team had more than 2, and only MIN, SEA, DAL, NWE, and PIT achieved that. The Eagles are bringing back 2 of those guys. They also have Milton Williams who had 4 sacks on 400 snaps. There's your Hargrave replacement.
No. They do not have to get a high-level athlete at that position. They already have 2. It's unrealistic to have a completely stacked roster every year. It almost never happens (though Howie has done it twice in 6 years). Your expectations are poorly calibrated to reality.
#43 by Pat // Mar 02, 2023 - 2:33pm
Aside from that being a weird bar to set, only 29 players had more than 8 sacks last year. The Eagles 4 of them.
Yes: the Eagles had 4 of them partly because all of them had low workloads because they had so many of them. Reddick will be fine, that's a huge benefit. But Sweat's never had a workload higher than 58%, and the Eagles never like to overuse pass rushers.
They also have Milton Williams who had 4 sacks on 400 snaps. There's your Hargrave replacement.
See above. I'm happy to see Williams with an increased workload, but he needs someone else similarly pulling at least 40-50% snaps. Again, if they want to grab a day 1-2 pass rushing DT, cool, but a first-round edge is easier.
Like I said above, I'd prefer three DBs, but you need to at least grab one guy at pass rush in the draft in the first three rounds.
No. They do not have to get a high-level athlete at that position. They already have 2. It's unrealistic to have a completely stacked roster every year.
This isn't purely about next year. You never think about just next year. They need additional pass rushers next year since they're losing 3 and only gaining back 1, and don't really have any prospects of merit that didn't get significant playing time. They also need additional pass rushers past '24, when that count goes to possibly 0. Skimping by in '23 doesn't make sense. Pass rush is always valuable.
This is just looking at needs over time. Secondary's the highest priority, pass rush is the second highest. Offensive line after that (primarily tackle), then RB and WR. It's not that they don't need a running back, but obviously that's easier to grab someone at next to zero cost.
Your expectations are poorly calibrated to reality.
Seriously, your criticisms of my reasoning just make zero sense to me. I never said "they need to be stacked next year or they're doomed." This is really me just looking at the roster, the guys that went, and saying "OK, where are the holes, what do we do."
I mean... literally what I'm saying the Eagles should do is basically exactly what NFL Mock Draft's database has for the consensus first two picks for Philly, taking Witherspoon at 10 and Nolan Smith at 30. So I'm not some wacko outlier in thinking this way. For me, after those two I'd pick up another DB in the second, an OL in the third, and who cares with the last two. RB/WR. Sure. Whatever.
With that, plus retaining CJ in free agency and extending Hurts, I'd be feeling OK. But again, these are all things out of their control.
edit: also note: "high-level athlete" doesn't mean top-10 pick or something, just first three rounds-ish, maybe 4th if a guy falls. Compare Sweat's spider chart to, say, Tarron Jackson.
#29 by Aaron Brooks G… // Feb 28, 2023 - 3:31pm
Of course, with Hargrave, Cox, and Graham gone, you're now relying on Sweat, Reddick, and Barnett (gah) for pressure, soo... yeah. There are no good solutions here.
What's wrong with Sweat and Reddick?
Reddick has been a stud since Arizona stopped stupidly using him OOP as an ILB.
#39 by Oncorhynchus // Mar 01, 2023 - 3:49pm
Great Value Brandon Graham has plenty of NFL stats.
They're mostly losing guys from the interior of DL. Brandon Graham will be 35. Robert Quinn didn't do shit.
C'mon Pat, what's your deal? Do you have vicarious brain trauma from that hit Clowney laid down on Wentz back in 2019?
#40 by Pat // Mar 01, 2023 - 4:48pm
Great Value Brandon Graham has plenty of NFL stats.
I was, sadly, including Barnett in the list of guys.
They're mostly losing guys from the interior of DL.
Yes. And Hargrave and Cox were major sources of pressure. Jordan Davis isn't a pass-rush type, he's a nose tackle. With Hargrave and Cox gone, most of the pressure will need to come from the outside, which is a lot to ask. Hence the reason why edge is a major draft need. I mean, a pass-rushing DT would be awesome too, but edge is an easier find. If you'd like me to say "ER/pass rush DT," sure.
You honestly keep thinking I'm being negative. I'm not. I said I'd like them to go DB/DB/DB in the draft, because that would give them the possibility of restocking the entire secondary (well, except strong-side safety but that's not that important a position), this is a great draft for it, and it also helps your depth, too. But because edge (well, again, any pass rush) is a strong need as well, they can't.
#22 by dmb // Feb 28, 2023 - 2:25pm
I'm skeptical that Howell is actually the answer for Washington, but I think they're positioning themselves to try to win at most of the other 21 spots next year, and rely on the fact that they've got so little invested at QB to help gain those advantages elsewhere. Not saying that it'll work, just that it seems to be the plan (for now). And with that plan, the remaining move at QB is either a readily-available vet or another lotto ticket in the draft. Certainly a move would need to be made, but I'm not sure QB would be the position demanding the most urgent attention.
With that in mind, I would say CB -- for the reasons stated in the article -- or interior OL are Washington's biggest needs. They've had a pretty good Center in Chase Roullier, but he's missed most of the past two years with injuries, so at this point his ability to contribute feels questionable at best. The play they got from their Guards last year (mostly Trai Turner and Andrew Norwell) was really bad. I know Guard is one of the least-valued positions, but having question marks at all three interior line spots is a great way to throw an offense into disarray, which is what happened last year. They don't have large remaining investments in anyone at those positions, but Bieniemy will look awful -- no matter how brilliant his play designs or calling may be -- if they don't upgrade at those spots.