The top-line numbers suggest a Tampa Bay upset in Super Bowl LV, but the specific matchups point to favoring Kansas City. We cover everything from how each quarterback fares under pressure to different personnel groupings to how the Week 12 matchup might inform the strategies on Sunday.
Here's a big Super Bowl LV video preview from Football Outsiders and EdjSports. We discuss the big game from a number of angles, with DVOA stats, coaching analysis, and some prop bet picks from Scott Spratt. Why Bruce Arians needs to go for it more than usual, why we might not see a lot of Gronk, and more.
Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers will be just the second pair of quarterbacks with multiple MVP awards each to meet in the conference championship round of the playoffs -- but it's the other 94 players and their coaches who may determine who wins.
The Bills have improved on defense since they kept the Chiefs somewhat contained with a very conservative strategy back in Week 6. But if they want to make it to Super Bowl LV, their offense has to play well enough to outscore the powerful Kansas City attack.
Patrick Mahomes is shooting for his second straight Super Bowl title. The biggest remaining Cinderella, Cleveland, will be standing in his way. On the other side of the bracket, Baltimore and Buffalo present a excellent matchup of two well-rounded teams that have peaked in recent weeks.
In one game, two all-time legends will face off for the third time this year, each trying to win one more Super Bowl before the end of their careers. In the other game, a classic matchup of the year's best offense with the current best defense, with the likely MVP facing the probable Defensive Player of the Year.
We've got two teams where the fan bases are hungry for some kind of postseason victory after many years in the wilderness. We've got two aging quarterbacks from the Class of 2004, trying to make one last run at Super Bowl glory. And we've got the closest matchup of the wild-card round, a rematch of both a regular-season game and a big upset from last year's playoffs.
The NFC playoffs start with Part III of an intense divisional rivalry, spiced up with a big question mark at the quarterback position. The other two NFC games present us with mismatches where the top two teams in DVOA this season will face two weaker playoff teams that play strong defense but struggle on offense.