Football Outsiders
Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis

Super Bowl LV Video Preview

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Photo: USA Today Sports Images

Here's a big Super Bowl LV video preview from Football Outsiders and EdjSports. We discuss the big game from a number of angles, with DVOA stats, coaching analysis, and some prop bet picks from Scott Spratt. Why Bruce Arians needs to go for it more than usual, why we might not see a lot of Gronk, and more.

 

 

Comments

8 comments, Last at 07 Feb 2021, 12:14pm

1 Home game for the Bucs

I wonder if after this game the NFL might name 2 sites for the game each year in case we have this same situation again. We have a team playing in their home stadium but their opponent has a better overall record in the Reg. Season. That goes completely against what teams are working for all year-hosting playoff games by overall record in the Reg. Season. 

2 How about

How about if they use next year's site this year and then use this years site next year for example. Anything to avoid this years situation. Granted, it is not the home field advantage that it could have been, but still...don't reward the team that did not earn the advantage.

4 How about

How about as soon as the playoff field is determined. Once all of the playoff teams are set, the NFL makes sure that the S.B. site team is not in the field. That leaves 5 weeks or so.

5 Imaginary Problem?

In reply to by Bob Smith

Are you guys trying to solve a problem that doesn't really exist?  This happens every 50 years, and you want to create a rule to address a perceived problem?  It's not like season ticket holders get to go to the game (OK, some might); I expect a 50/50 split of supporters in the crowd (such as it will be).

6 Super Bowl Home Field

In reply to by Bob Smith

What is the important advantage to playing at home, familiarity of surroundings or home crowd? If it's the latter, then the Super Bowl, especially this year, seems like it offers little fan assistance given how many tickets go to sponsors, league heads and the other 30 teams. If it's the former, I get what you're saying. However, as it's only happened once in 55 years, it seems like solution looking for a problem. 

7 One big reason

The one big reason I thought it might become an issue is this-the Bucs are getting an advantage that they did not earn. Home field advantage in the playoffs is earned in the NFL by having a better Record than your opponent. Not in this game however.

8 Prop bets

Great call on Gronk receiving yards under. Interesting breakdown over the course of the season:

  • Season-long Gronk avg 35.1 re yds
  • Pre-bye Gronk avg 42.1 re yds
  • Post-bye Gronk avg 23.0 re yds
  • In games where Bucs rushed for 76 or more, Gronk avg 32.6 re yds (season-long)