Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

13 Oct 2006, 04:51pm by Aaron Schatz

FOX Blog Wrap-Up, October 7-13

So, I've been trying to figure out what to do about the Football Outsiders FOX blog, and alerting people to the content. We don't want to link every piece back to FO, because we want people to get used to checking it on their own, but we also don't want our dedicated readers to miss the stuff we're writing over there. So I'm going to try this, a weekly look at what we covered on the FOX blog on Friday afternoons, which can be a catch-all thread for discussion of these topics free from the standard "FO stats are dumb" FOX commenters.

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18 comments, Last at 20 Oct 2006, 11:13am by kleph

13 Oct 2006, 01:12pm by Aaron Schatz

Weirdest (Fantasy) Season Ever

Bill Simmons said it, I've said it on a few radio appearances, and now Doug Drinen chimes in. This is the weirdest fantasy season ever. I feel bad that the KUBIAK projections seem a little off so far -- but that just means they have the same problem as every other set of projections produced this year. Unless somebody wants to show me the guy who predicted Bernard Berrian as the top wide receiver, Marques Colston and Kellen Winslow as the top tight ends, and Charlie Frye as a top 10 quarterback.

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23 comments, Last at 18 Oct 2006, 3:59pm by Boski

11 Oct 2006, 10:22pm by Aaron Schatz

FO Mailbag: Is the New England passing game struggling or not?

Aaron Schatz explains the disconnect between DVOA and conventional wisdom about the New England Patriots. (Click link to read.)

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11 Oct 2006, 10:16pm by Aaron Schatz

How can Denver's defense rank 11th?

Aaron Schatz tries to explain why DVOA seems to hate the Denver defense. (Click link to read more.)

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11 Oct 2006, 07:19pm by Aaron Schatz

The Passing Premium

Here's an article by our friend Ben Alamar, from the Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports. (For those who don't know, Ben is also the statistician quoted at length by Michael Lewis in the new book Blind Side.) For 45 years now, completion percentage and yards per attempt have gone up while interception rates have gone down. Yet NFL offenses are split between the run and the pass according to basically the same ratios as 20 years ago and even 40 yards ago. What gives?

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56 comments, Last at 13 Oct 2006, 1:27pm by ABW

11 Oct 2006, 11:55am by Aaron Schatz

My Left Foot

Fun little story about new Boston College kicker Steve Aponavicius, who will play in his first game this weekend against Virginia Tech. Not his first game of the year -- his first football game, ever.

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9 comments, Last at 13 Oct 2006, 10:20am by PatsFan

10 Oct 2006, 03:29pm by Aaron Schatz

Week 6 DVOA Ratings

If Rex Grossman played da Packers by himself, how many points would he win by? If Brian Urlacher was battling a hurricane, who would win? What if da name of da hurricane was "Hurricane Ditka?" Plus: Am I having another heart attack? These are da questions we must ask after looking at da latest DVOA ratings. Commentary found here on FOXSports.com.

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351 comments, Last at 02 Jan 2007, 11:47pm by Jeff

09 Oct 2006, 09:21pm by Aaron Schatz

2006 Quick Reads: Week 5

The game between the Cowboys and Eagles ended up a lot closer than the personal competition between Donovan McNabb and Terrell Owens. T.O. had the lowest DPAR of any receiver this week, and Drew Bledsoe had the lowest DPAR of any quarterback. So, who gets the blame? Plus: Eli Manning and Alex Smith play well, and Vince Young needs to play more shotgun.

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59 comments, Last at 13 Oct 2006, 12:47am by Crushinator

09 Oct 2006, 05:34pm by Aaron Schatz

Jags' Mike Peterson Out for Year

Really bad news for the Jaguars: Pro Bowl-caliber middle linebacker Mike Peterson will miss the rest of the year after tearing his pectoral muscle in yesterday's 41-0 blowout win. (The injury came early in the game, so there's no "they should have rested the starters" issue here.) The other major injury news today comes from Arizona, where Larry Fitzgerald will miss 2-5 weeks with a hamstring pull or slight tear. So much for that PFP-predicted receiving title.

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18 comments, Last at 10 Oct 2006, 2:01pm by Todd S.

09 Oct 2006, 11:24am by Aaron Schatz

James Angered by Lack of Running Plays

Regrets? I've had a few. But then again, too few to mention. (No, wait, scratch that -- I have a ton of regrets. It's YARDS that I have too few of.)

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21 comments, Last at 10 Oct 2006, 2:02pm by zlionsfan