by Aaron Schatz
There is only one undefeated team left in the NFL this season, and the Minnesota Vikings have reached that status with a series of impressive wins. Though the Vikings haven't played a particularly difficult schedule so far, four of their five wins have come by more than a touchdown. Their defense is getting the headlines, but the Vikings have been above-average in all three phases of the game. Right now, our DVOA ratings have then third in defense, 11th in offense, and sixth in special teams. Put that all together, and the Minnesota Vikings are the No. 1 team for the first time in the history of our DVOA ratings.
Yes, you read that correctly. Football Outsiders has existed since 2003, but we have DVOA ratings going back to 1989, and we know what they would have looked like on a week-to-week basis through each season. In the 27 years from 1989 to 2015, the Vikings did not spend a single week at No. 1 in our ratings. Now they have finally reached the pinnacle.
Until this year, the Vikings had not even spent many weeks ranked second or third. The two best Vikings teams of the last couple decades are actually ranked surprisingly low in DVOA. The 12-4 Vikings team that Brett Favre led to the NFC Championship Game in 2009 ranked only seventh in DVOA for the season, and the 15-1 Vikings team of 1998 finished the year ranked only fifth. Some possible reasons for that are listed in the original 1998 DVOA commentary that I wrote over a decade ago, although the ratings on that page are slightly different from what we now list with an updated version of the formula.
Two other Vikings teams ranked in the top eight of DVOA by the end of the year: the 1989 Vikings, who ranked fifth at 10-6, and the 1995 Vikings, who ranked seventh despite finishing just 8-8. Neither of those teams ever ranked No. 1, either. And the 2000 Vikings who went 11-5 and eventually made to the NFC Championship Game? They never even sniffed the top of the DVOA ratings, and actually finished 22nd for the year despite their strong win-loss record.
Before this week, the Vikings had only ranked second in five different weeks, and they had only ranked third in five other different weeks:
- The 1989 Vikings and 2014 Vikings each ranked No. 2 after winning big in Week 1, and the 1992 Vikings were No. 3 after Week 1.
- The 2009 Vikings peaked at No. 2 after Week 2.
- The 1998 Vikings ranked No. 2 after both Week 5 and Week 7. They also ranked No. 3 after their Week 6 bye, after they won in Week 8 to go 7-0, and after their first loss in Week 9 made them 7-1.
- This year's Vikings were No. 3 last week.
Now that the Vikings have reached the top spot, there are only three NFL franchises that have never ranked No. 1 in DVOA. Even though they've been to two Super Bowls and went 15-1 last season, the Carolina Panthers have never spent a week above No. 3 in DVOA. The same goes for Detroit, although that's less of a surprise. The third franchise that's never been to No. 1 has an asterisk, because it's the new Cleveland Browns. However, the original Browns were No. 1 in 10 different weeks before moving to Baltimore.
The one worry for the Vikings going forward is the running game. Although the Vikings are a good, well-rounded team if we look at just top-level offense and defense, their offense is currently seventh in pass offense but dead last in run offense.
Philadelphia drops to No. 2 in DVOA this week after three straight weeks in the top spot. With those three weeks, Philadelphia ties Denver as the teams that have spent the most time at No. 1 in DVOA: 45 weeks each. The other teams in the top five include New England at 40 weeks, Dallas at 33 weeks, and San Francisco at 33 weeks including Week 1 of this year because apparently the San Francisco 49ers have some weird Week 1 superpower.
Most of the other teams in the ratings are about what you would figure. If you've been reading Football Outsiders for a while, it shouldn't surprise you too much to see San Diego ranked at No. 11 despite a 1-4 record. Any team that keeps blowing games late in the fourth quarter has played a lot better than its record, and should win more games going forward. That won't matter for the postseason unless the Chargers can go on an 11-game winning streak like Kansas City did last year, but they are definitely an above-average team this season. However, they do not have the highest DVOA ever for a 1-4 team. Five teams in DVOA history actually had a DVOA over 10% despite a 1-4 record, led by the 2000 Patriots at 17.5%. The others were the 1992 Lions, the 2003 Jets, the 2004 Bills, and the 2011 Vikings.
On the other side of the coin, you might be wondering if the Houston Texans are the worst 3-2 team in history. Not quite. Houston has the third-lowest DVOA ever for a 3-2 team, and is now ranked 31st in the league. The Jets climbed a bit this week, so according to DVOA the only team still playing worse than Houston is the winless Cleveland Browns. However, the worst 3-2 team of all-time was the 2010 Arizona Cardinals at a horrendous -48.6% DVOA. They went 2-9 the rest of the season. The 2007 Detroit Lions also had a lower DVOA than the Texans, and went 4-7 the rest of the season.
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Once again this season, we have teamed up with EA Sports to bring Football Outsiders-branded player content to Madden 17 Ultimate Team. Each week, we'll be picking out a handful of players who starred in that week's games. Some of them will be well-known players who stood out in DVOA and DYAR. Others will be under-the-radar players who only stood out with advanced stats. We'll announce the players each Tuesday in the DVOA commentary article, and the players will be available in Madden Ultimate Team packs the following weekend, beginning at 11am Eastern on Friday. We will also tweet out images of these players from the @fboutsiders Twitter account on most Fridays. The best player of each week, the Football Outsiders Hero, will require you to collect a set of the other four Football Outsiders players that week, plus a certain number of Football Outsiders collectibles available in Madden Ultimate Team packs.
The Football Outsiders stars for Week 5 are:
- RG Zack Martin, DAL (FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS HERO): No sacks or hurries allowed; helped Dallas RB gain 7.95 yards per carry with 57 percent success rate.
- LOLB Lorenzo Alexander, BUF: 3 sacks, PD; leads NFL with 7 sacks.
- RB Jordan Howard, CHI: Finished third among Week 5 RB with 43 DYAR (16 carries, 118 yards; 3 rec, 45 rec yards, TD).
- MLB Eric Kendricks, MIN: Prevented three third-down conversions with two PDs and a tackle.
- RT Austin Pasztor, CLE: No sacks or hurries allowed; teamed with Joe Thomas to prevent edge pressure all game.
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All stats pages are now updated through Week 5 of 2016. Snap counts and playoff odds are also fully updated.
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These are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings through five weeks of 2016, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here.)
OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted to consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season. As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE. Because it is early in the season, opponent adjustments are only at 50 percent strength; they will increase 10 percent every week through Week 10. As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE.
DAVE is a formula which combines our preseason projection with current DVOA to get a more accurate forecast of how a team will play the rest of the season. Right now, the preseason projection makes up 30 percent of DAVE for teams with five games played, and 45 percent of DAVE for teams with four games played.
To save people some time, please use the following format for all complaints:
<team> is clearly ranked <too high/too low> because <reason unrelated to DVOA>. <subjective ranking system> is way better than this. <unrelated team-supporting or -denigrating comment, preferably with poor spelling and/or chat-acceptable spelling>
| TEAM | TOTAL DVOA |
LAST WEEK |
TOTAL DAVE |
RANK | W-L | OFFENSE DVOA |
OFF. RANK |
DEFENSE DVOA |
DEF. RANK |
S.T. DVOA |
S.T. RANK |
|
| 1 | MIN | 36.0% | 3 | 24.5% | 2 | 5-0 | 5.9% | 11 | -24.8% | 3 | 5.3% | 6 |
| 2 | PHI | 33.5% | 1 | 14.5% | 4 | 3-1 | 8.9% | 8 | -25.1% | 2 | -0.5% | 16 |
| 3 | SEA | 32.6% | 2 | 28.9% | 1 | 3-1 | -1.5% | 17 | -29.5% | 1 | 4.6% | 7 |
| 4 | PIT | 20.8% | 5 | 19.5% | 3 | 4-1 | 17.8% | 4 | 1.3% | 20 | 4.2% | 8 |
| 5 | ATL | 20.0% | 8 | 12.1% | 7 | 4-1 | 25.1% | 1 | 12.4% | 26 | 7.3% | 4 |
| 6 | GB | 19.0% | 6 | 14.3% | 5 | 3-1 | 9.8% | 7 | -9.9% | 8 | -0.7% | 17 |
| 7 | DEN | 16.9% | 4 | 12.1% | 6 | 4-1 | -1.5% | 18 | -17.4% | 4 | 1.1% | 13 |
| 8 | BUF | 12.7% | 10 | 8.3% | 8 | 3-2 | 5.8% | 12 | -5.1% | 11 | 1.8% | 12 |
| 9 | DAL | 12.6% | 9 | 8.3% | 9 | 4-1 | 24.8% | 2 | 11.1% | 25 | -1.1% | 18 |
| 10 | OAK | 7.8% | 7 | 4.6% | 13 | 4-1 | 19.8% | 3 | 15.3% | 29 | 3.4% | 11 |
| 11 | SD | 7.2% | 13 | 4.6% | 14 | 1-4 | 10.8% | 5 | -1.7% | 15 | -5.3% | 27 |
| 12 | WAS | 4.1% | 14 | 0.2% | 16 | 3-2 | 1.5% | 16 | 6.2% | 23 | 8.8% | 2 |
| 13 | NE | 2.1% | 17 | 7.9% | 10 | 4-1 | 8.4% | 9 | 7.0% | 24 | 0.7% | 14 |
| 14 | ARI | 1.8% | 16 | 6.7% | 11 | 2-3 | -9.8% | 23 | -15.0% | 6 | -3.4% | 24 |
| 15 | BAL | 1.6% | 11 | 3.3% | 15 | 3-2 | -12.8% | 27 | -16.9% | 5 | -2.5% | 20 |
| 16 | TEN | 0.2% | 25 | -2.5% | 19 | 2-3 | 2.9% | 13 | -10.0% | 7 | -12.8% | 32 |
| TEAM | TOTAL DVOA |
LAST WEEK |
TOTAL DAVE |
RANK | W-L | OFFENSE DVOA |
OFF. RANK |
DEFENSE DVOA |
DEF. RANK |
S.T. DVOA |
S.T. RANK |
|
| 17 | KC | 0.1% | 15 | 6.6% | 12 | 2-2 | -10.8% | 25 | -6.8% | 9 | 4.1% | 10 |
| 18 | NYG | -1.8% | 20 | -2.1% | 18 | 2-3 | -1.7% | 19 | -1.5% | 16 | -1.6% | 19 |
| 19 | CIN | -3.0% | 12 | -0.9% | 17 | 2-3 | 2.3% | 14 | 1.2% | 19 | -4.2% | 25 |
| 20 | CHI | -4.5% | 23 | -6.0% | 23 | 1-4 | 1.9% | 15 | 0.8% | 18 | -5.6% | 28 |
| 21 | NO | -6.2% | 18 | -4.3% | 21 | 1-3 | 10.5% | 6 | 13.8% | 28 | -2.9% | 21 |
| 22 | JAC | -6.9% | 19 | -7.7% | 25 | 1-3 | -13.2% | 28 | -5.9% | 10 | 0.4% | 15 |
| 23 | CAR | -8.1% | 21 | -3.7% | 20 | 1-4 | -3.4% | 20 | -2.5% | 14 | -7.2% | 29 |
| 24 | DET | -8.5% | 26 | -5.8% | 22 | 2-3 | 6.4% | 10 | 23.6% | 32 | 8.7% | 3 |
| 25 | LARM | -11.0% | 24 | -7.4% | 24 | 3-2 | -21.6% | 31 | -4.8% | 12 | 5.9% | 5 |
| 26 | SF | -14.0% | 28 | -15.2% | 28 | 1-4 | -9.7% | 22 | -0.7% | 17 | -5.0% | 26 |
| 27 | IND | -14.7% | 27 | -10.9% | 26 | 2-3 | -3.4% | 21 | 20.5% | 31 | 9.3% | 1 |
| 28 | MIA | -15.2% | 22 | -14.7% | 27 | 1-4 | -15.1% | 30 | 4.3% | 21 | 4.1% | 9 |
| 29 | TB | -21.9% | 30 | -16.6% | 29 | 2-3 | -13.7% | 29 | 5.2% | 22 | -2.9% | 22 |
| 30 | NYJ | -29.8% | 32 | -21.5% | 30 | 1-4 | -10.2% | 24 | 16.4% | 30 | -3.2% | 23 |
| 31 | HOU | -29.9% | 29 | -23.3% | 31 | 3-2 | -25.7% | 32 | -4.0% | 13 | -8.2% | 30 |
| 32 | CLE | -33.4% | 31 | -30.2% | 32 | 0-5 | -11.8% | 26 | 13.4% | 27 | -8.3% | 31 |
- NON-ADJUSTED TOTAL DVOA does not include the adjustments for opponent strength or the adjustments for weather and altitude in special teams, and only penalizes offenses for lost fumbles rather than all fumbles.
- ESTIMATED WINS uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles. Teams that have had their bye week are projected as if they had played one game per week.
- PAST SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.
- FUTURE SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents still left to play this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.
- VARIANCE measures the statistical variance of the team's weekly DVOA performance. Teams are ranked from most consistent (#1, lowest variance) to least consistent (#32, highest variance).
| TEAM | TOTAL DVOA |
W-L | NON-ADJ TOT VOA |
ESTIM. WINS |
RANK | PAST SCHED |
RANK | FUTURE SCHED |
RANK | VAR. | RANK | |
| 1 | MIN | 36.0% | 5-0 | 39.1% | 5.0 | 1 | -4.1% | 25 | 2.1% | 14 | 6.4% | 8 |
| 2 | PHI | 33.5% | 3-1 | 43.4% | 4.0 | 3 | -6.4% | 27 | 11.3% | 1 | 11.0% | 18 |
| 3 | SEA | 32.6% | 3-1 | 34.4% | 4.0 | 2 | -17.5% | 32 | 2.5% | 13 | 14.9% | 26 |
| 4 | PIT | 20.8% | 4-1 | 21.3% | 3.7 | 5 | 1.0% | 15 | -6.4% | 31 | 28.7% | 31 |
| 5 | ATL | 20.0% | 4-1 | 21.7% | 3.9 | 4 | -2.3% | 21 | 3.0% | 11 | 13.3% | 24 |
| 6 | GB | 19.0% | 3-1 | 17.7% | 3.1 | 10 | 4.7% | 9 | 6.4% | 4 | 9.9% | 16 |
| 7 | DEN | 16.9% | 4-1 | 29.4% | 3.5 | 6 | -5.5% | 26 | -1.0% | 18 | 12.5% | 23 |
| 8 | BUF | 12.7% | 3-2 | 19.3% | 2.8 | 11 | -7.0% | 29 | -4.9% | 29 | 10.3% | 17 |
| 9 | DAL | 12.6% | 4-1 | 14.5% | 3.4 | 8 | -3.9% | 23 | 7.5% | 3 | 2.7% | 7 |
| 10 | OAK | 7.8% | 4-1 | 7.5% | 2.5 | 14 | 4.6% | 10 | -2.5% | 27 | 8.8% | 13 |
| 11 | SD | 7.2% | 1-4 | 10.3% | 2.4 | 16 | -4.0% | 24 | -4.2% | 28 | 2.6% | 4 |
| 12 | WAS | 4.1% | 3-2 | 6.8% | 3.1 | 9 | 0.0% | 17 | 10.0% | 2 | 6.7% | 9 |
| 13 | NE | 2.1% | 4-1 | 8.5% | 2.2 | 21 | -12.8% | 31 | -1.7% | 21 | 16.0% | 27 |
| 14 | ARI | 1.8% | 2-3 | 9.9% | 2.4 | 17 | -6.4% | 28 | 3.7% | 9 | 11.0% | 20 |
| 15 | BAL | 1.6% | 3-2 | 8.9% | 2.7 | 13 | -3.1% | 22 | 0.3% | 16 | 2.4% | 3 |
| 16 | TEN | 0.2% | 2-3 | 2.0% | 2.7 | 12 | -1.9% | 20 | -6.2% | 30 | 8.9% | 14 |
| TEAM | TOTAL DVOA |
W-L | NON-ADJ TOT VOA |
ESTIM. WINS |
RANK | PAST SCHED |
RANK | FUTURE SCHED |
RANK | VAR. | RANK | |
| 17 | KC | 0.1% | 2-2 | -4.1% | 3.5 | 7 | -7.9% | 30 | 1.6% | 15 | 48.5% | 32 |
| 18 | NYG | -1.8% | 2-3 | -11.9% | 2.2 | 22 | 13.1% | 1 | 4.1% | 7 | 1.3% | 1 |
| 19 | CIN | -3.0% | 2-3 | 3.5% | 2.2 | 20 | 1.1% | 14 | -2.0% | 24 | 7.9% | 11 |
| 20 | CHI | -4.5% | 1-4 | -3.2% | 2.3 | 19 | -1.4% | 19 | 5.6% | 5 | 7.5% | 10 |
| 21 | NO | -6.2% | 1-3 | -2.8% | 2.5 | 15 | 8.3% | 3 | -1.8% | 23 | 2.6% | 5 |
| 22 | JAC | -6.9% | 1-3 | -3.0% | 2.0 | 23 | 3.3% | 12 | -1.1% | 20 | 9.6% | 15 |
| 23 | CAR | -8.1% | 1-4 | -9.8% | 1.7 | 28 | 7.4% | 4 | 2.6% | 12 | 11.0% | 19 |
| 24 | DET | -8.5% | 2-3 | -11.2% | 1.9 | 24 | 6.7% | 6 | 4.3% | 6 | 11.7% | 21 |
| 25 | LARM | -11.0% | 3-2 | -9.8% | 2.4 | 18 | 2.2% | 13 | -2.5% | 26 | 16.1% | 28 |
| 26 | SF | -14.0% | 1-4 | -14.2% | 1.3 | 31 | 5.6% | 7 | -1.8% | 22 | 17.1% | 29 |
| 27 | IND | -14.7% | 2-3 | -11.4% | 1.6 | 29 | 0.8% | 16 | -1.1% | 19 | 2.1% | 2 |
| 28 | MIA | -15.2% | 1-4 | -20.4% | 1.8 | 25 | -0.3% | 18 | -2.3% | 25 | 8.3% | 12 |
| 29 | TB | -21.9% | 2-3 | -23.1% | 1.7 | 26 | 3.9% | 11 | 3.8% | 8 | 20.9% | 30 |
| 30 | NYJ | -29.8% | 1-4 | -30.4% | 1.4 | 30 | 12.6% | 2 | -7.6% | 32 | 12.2% | 22 |
| 31 | HOU | -29.9% | 3-2 | -28.7% | 1.7 | 27 | 6.8% | 5 | -0.3% | 17 | 14.1% | 25 |
| 32 | CLE | -33.4% | 0-5 | -31.9% | 0.2 | 32 | 5.2% | 8 | 3.5% | 10 | 2.6% | 6 |
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