Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

08 Jul 2005

Jackson Hires Agent of Change

Grady Jackson, long a FO favorite, has hired agent Drew Rosenhaus and is now threatening to hold out of camp because he wants a new contract -- just like his teammate Javon Walker and that other famous Rosenhaus client, Terrell Owens. Now, we're known around here as big supporters of Jackson, even saying that he was deserving of MVP consideration in 2003. The problem is that you don't win by paying guys for what they did in the past, you win by paying based on what they'll do in the future. And Jackson is 32 and wearing down with knee problems. Jackson missed five weeks last year with knee problems, and the Packer run D was pretty bad until Jackson returned. But as the season went on, those knees got worse again, and the Packers run defense declined significantly in the last few weeks of the season, as teams began running around the increasingly immobile Jackson:

Weeks 2-6: 10.1% DVOA
Weeks 7-12: -11.5% DVOA
Weeks 13-16: 9.4% DVOA
(Jackson didn't play Week 17)

Posted by: Aaron Schatz on 08 Jul 2005

8 comments, Last at 23 Jul 2005, 3:15pm by DCalla


by S (not verified) :: Fri, 07/08/2005 - 11:39am

I would be absolutely shocked if Ted Thompson gives in on this one. One year for about $1 mil. (provided he meets performance incentives) is just about right for a 32 year old DT with a history of knee problems, weight problems, and occasional lapses in motivation; especially when the Packers have 2 young DT's in camp that they want to take a serious look at.

He's been valuable, but the Packers are already preparing for life without him. I can't imagine they'd pony up.

by Richie (not verified) :: Fri, 07/08/2005 - 1:31pm

The problem is that you don’t win by paying guys for what they did in the past, you win by paying based on what they’ll do in the future.

Based on this statement, what is a player to do to ensure he makes the most money possible during his career? Obviously, performing at a high level during his rookie contract would be a great way to have his second contract be for a large amount of money.

by Tim (not verified) :: Fri, 07/08/2005 - 2:03pm

According to today's Tip Sheet, you can't renegotiate a contract up in value if you've renegotiated it in the last 12 months.

"The NFL collective bargaining agreement stipulates that if a team makes an adjustment to a player's contract, it can't do anything to raise the cap value of the deal for 12 months. Since the Packers gave Jackson at least one advance on his base salary in recent months, there really isn't much they can do now."

That doesn't preclude their signing him to an extension that doesn't change his 2005 cap number, so that's going to have to be the tack that Rosenhaus takes.

by elhondo (not verified) :: Fri, 07/08/2005 - 2:33pm

If his knees only have one season left, holding out might be his last chance at a payday.

by MCS (not verified) :: Tue, 07/12/2005 - 8:29am

Does anyone know the percentage of Rosenhaus NFL clients that are holding out?

by Starshatterer (not verified) :: Tue, 07/12/2005 - 11:47am

Does anyone know the percentage of Rosenhaus NFL clients that are holding out?

My back-of-the-envelope estimate is 7.5%. (7 holdouts actual or threatened, 90+ clients).

by Mark Etter (not verified) :: Sat, 07/23/2005 - 12:23pm

Please forward to Drew Rosenhaus please, you are ruining the game of professional football. You are a greedy and you are making some of your clients even greedier. There needs to be an individual salary cap for players. Some of these players are making way too much. For example T.O. , he needs to quit his complaining and play. What happened to the days of a good amount of players playing for mainly for the passion and not so much for the money. Mr. Rosenhaus you are just making the problem worse. How much money does a player need to make , money is not everthing. You are some of the cause of the ticket prices to keep going up. Thanks, Mark Etter

by DCalla (not verified) :: Sat, 07/23/2005 - 3:15pm

I am a long time lurker here, but I've never joined in, because frankly, you guys can be pretty intimidating. I wanted to weigh in before the post-Prospectus explosion, and I can't let the above go by.

Agents are not ruining the game of football. "Greedy" players are not ruining the game of football. They are both a result of the vast amounts of money being made by other people, and by the current players paying attention to what has happened to the players that played for "passion." How many former players are living the remainder of their lives with chronic, debilitating pain, barely able to walk? With that future, I can't blame anyone for getting what the market will bear - especially since most of the profit making enterprise is built on the players' backs.

Having said that, a guy making multiple millions, who needs more to "feed his family" really gets no sympathy from me. We need to watch that limit - what the market will bear.