Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

29 Nov 2005

By Losing, Ravens Give Fans Hope for Draft Win

This is the conversation at the exact opposite end of the spectrum from the "If the Colts have to play their starters all 16 games to go undefeated -- even if they've clinched homefield advantage after Week 14 -- then so be it ..." but it's a reality for a handful of teams with not much else to play for. (free registration/bugmenot required)

Posted by: P. Ryan Wilson on 29 Nov 2005

6 comments, Last at 30 Nov 2005, 6:38am by lafcadio


by James, London (not verified) :: Tue, 11/29/2005 - 11:54am

It doesn't sound like fun in Baltimore. I think they have 2 questions to deal with this off-season.

1: QB. They need one.

2: Ray Lewis. According to PFT, Lewis is due to earn $5.5M next season, and $6.5M the following two seasons.They also report that he wants a new deal with £32M of guarenteed money. IF that is accurate, is he worth what he's due to be paid, or is now a good time to release Lewis & Lewis and start again?

by ABW (not verified) :: Tue, 11/29/2005 - 1:53pm

I don't understand all these articles and people who seem to think that getting a really high draft pick is a good thing. Sure you get a shot at a one of the top QB, RB, or WR prospects. But it's not like there is a great track record of success with top draft picks the past few years, and you end up mortgaging your salary cap for one guy. Have they not seen the study by the guys from Columbia or wherever that showed that the value in the draft is in the second round, and that top draft picks are a loser's curse?

If you want to build your team back up from the bottom, it seems like the LAST thing you want is an overpriced prospect who may or may not work out, and regardless is going to eat up enough of your salary cap that you won't have as much room for the solid middle-of-the-roster guys who actually form the backbone of a team.

by Whatever0 (not verified) :: Tue, 11/29/2005 - 3:40pm

Re 1: It's a little more complicated than that. The Ravens also need to replace their entire O-Line other than Ogden. Some of those players will come from within, but it's not going to be that easy. J. Lewis and Taylor are both FAs. They need to re-sign one, or get a new RB.

The Ravens will keep Ray. He was playing very well before his injury, significantly better than last year. According to PFT, Ray wanted the new contract with 50 million guaranteed last offseason, too. I wouldn't expect anything to come of it.

The big question for the Ravens is whether or not they try to retool or rebuild. Depending on who they manage to resign, they'll still have holes next year at FS, DT, both OG, C, RT, FB, RB, and QB. Do they try to fill those holes with veterans, rookies, or some mix? How many players do they resign? It's an interesting problem, especially if they decide to shake up the coaching staff too.

But yeah, it's not much fun in Baltimore right now.

by James, New Jersey Branch (not verified) :: Tue, 11/29/2005 - 4:07pm

This is a great draft to have a high pick in because of trade value. If you have the number 1 somebody is going to be willing to trade a lot for a chance at Bush or Leinart.

by Aaron Boden (not verified) :: Tue, 11/29/2005 - 7:16pm

ask Chicago how well that high pick turned out this year.

by lafcadio (not verified) :: Wed, 11/30/2005 - 6:38am

To draft RB and QB high worked quite well for this Colts team...

Are they an exception ?

(San Diego, Atlanta and Cincy drafted high and well too)