Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

05 Sep 2011

MMQB: Peyton Manning at Risk

In this week's MMQB, Peter writes about Peyton Manning's injury, Lee Roy Selmon's death, Mark Herzlich, Tiki Barber's unemployment, and brings you cutdown day nuggets from all 32 teams. Shouldn't the Bills have been able to find more than two new starters between the draft and free agency?

Posted by: Tom Gower on 05 Sep 2011

24 comments, Last at 06 Sep 2011, 5:14pm by dbostedo


by Podge (not verified) :: Mon, 09/05/2011 - 10:55am

"Herzlich had to wait to see which team, if any, would go out on the limb to sign a player who was cancer-free now, but with no clue of what the future would bring."

I'm going to go ahead and believe that King chose go out on a limb unintentionally, and isn't trying to make some sort of pun about Herzlich's leg.

by Podge (not verified) :: Mon, 09/05/2011 - 10:57am

Sorry, that sounds like I'm just picking on that bit of the column and vaguely going off on one. Good column this week I thought, but that was a bit jarring.

by Marko :: Mon, 09/05/2011 - 5:20pm

I thought the column was weak as usual, just like the coffee on the Acela that he complains about. Who else besides MMQB is even slightly surprised that no one signed Tiki Barber? He thought that the Steelers might sign him because of Mike Tomlin, then adds this: "The Giants released him and never would have brought him back because of bridges burned." Knowing how close the Mara and Rooney families are, why would anyone think the Steelers would sign him after he burned bridges with the Giants?

by sundown (not verified) :: Mon, 09/05/2011 - 11:17pm

Strange that PK would have heard that story all offseason without ever hearing who the interested team was. Was the source somebody with the Steelers which is why he assumed they were the ones? But we're not talking national security, so why wouldn't he have heard the name of the team if there was any validity to the story? The story probably originated with Tiki's people who were desperate to give the impression he was a hot commodity.

by Cro-Mags (not verified) :: Mon, 09/05/2011 - 11:13am

That's pretty feeble of Irsay to compare Curtis Painter to Warner and Brady's SB runs. Or is he referring to Kerry Collins?

Manning has some great football left in him for sure, but I wonder what happens to that franchise after he leaves.

by John (not verified) :: Mon, 09/05/2011 - 11:33am

Best case scenario: Manning is on IR this year, Colts demonstrate exactly how fantastic a QB he is by losing nearly all their games, win the Andrew Luck lottery, Manning comes back for a few years, then Luck takes over.

Worst case scenario: Manning's career is done, Colts play mediocre football for the next generation or two.

Someone pointed out recently that the Colts could tank the next 50 years and not pick up another QB as good as Manning. I need to remember how fortunate I've been rather than dwell on the likelier possibilities.

by Purds :: Mon, 09/05/2011 - 2:35pm

Yes, we do. As Colts fans, it's time to start associating with our killer B brothers: Bengals, Bills, and Browns fans, who each year have false hopes turn to deafening silence by week 6. Ugh!

by Podge (not verified) :: Tue, 09/06/2011 - 4:50am

I think their best case is that (assuming Manning is out for the year), they demonstrate how bad the team is, get the number 1 pick, realise Manning is actually going to get back to full fitness and play another 3 to 4 years and trade out of the top pick for a huge amount of extra draft picks from a bad team that will start Luck straight away. That would allow the Colts to get extra picks in future years (including possibly a high first round pick, assuming Luck isn't great in his first year), have a Hall of Fame QB for a few more years, retool with some good rookies for final couple of tilts at Superbowl run with Manning, which they win in a couple of years, and then trading up to the mid-20s following their Superbowl win for a QB of future who has fallen in the first round (like Aaron Rodgers), who can learn for a couple of years from Manning (as he wins 2 more Superbowls before riding off into the sunset) before taking over.

Your case is an almost infinitely more likely best case, but I think mine is better.

by Kevin from Philly :: Tue, 09/06/2011 - 8:20am

Geez, and they call us Eagles fans fairweather. You guys sound like you're ready to plow that new stadium back into farmland. Manning has neck problems, but his head didn't fall off!

by dbostedo :: Tue, 09/06/2011 - 9:46am

Being pessimistic or negative is not "fairweather". Fair-weather would be someone saying they aren't going to care about the Colts if they aren't winning. (I.e. fair-weather fans only care when the team is good.)

Thinking about how bad they could be and coming up with scenarios about how they could get out of it is decidely not "fairweather".

by Independent George :: Tue, 09/06/2011 - 10:49am

Philly fans would complain that Manning is soft for missing time due to the neck injury, selfish for not having the surgery the day after the season ended, and greedy for his contract demands.

BTW, I'm about halfway through Tanier's book, and love every bit so far.

by dbostedo :: Tue, 09/06/2011 - 5:14pm

I guess my point was that Philly fans are anything BUT fair-weather. As you pointed out, they always care, even when there are issues or the team stinks. Maybe they care MORE when the team stinks.

by Aaron Schatz :: Mon, 09/05/2011 - 11:32am

It is official, Manning is listed as DOUBTFUL for Sunday's game.

by Karl Cuba :: Mon, 09/05/2011 - 1:18pm

Pretty sure there are 32 teams in the NFL...

by PatsFan :: Mon, 09/05/2011 - 2:29pm

If he really can't function, does he stay out out, or do the Colts put him in for the first offensive play to hand the ball off and thereby keep his streak alive?

by Purds :: Mon, 09/05/2011 - 2:36pm

No, he has said repeatedly that if he can't play the whole game, he won't play at all.

by nuclearbdgr :: Mon, 09/05/2011 - 3:41pm

Scott Tolzien was signed to the 49ers 53 man roster, not practice squad. Great fact checking...

by Southern Philly :: Mon, 09/05/2011 - 5:55pm

King talked up John Beck as a legit starter all off-season.

Today Rex Grossman was named the starter.

by Spielman :: Mon, 09/05/2011 - 6:13pm

Danny Wuerffel, anyone?

by Dave Bernreuther :: Mon, 09/05/2011 - 10:58pm

Hard to fault him on that one, though. King was just parroting what the Shanaclan was saying. They were talking Beck up the whole time too. Quite loudly.

by Southern Philly :: Mon, 09/05/2011 - 11:29pm

Sure it is, he could have not parroted him. John Beck is 30 and hasn't started a game in 4 years. And Peter King bought into all the crap Kyle Shanahan was selling.

by Bowl Game Anomaly :: Tue, 09/06/2011 - 7:55am

Peter King wasn't the only one who bought into it. Virtually the entire Washington media believed Beck was going to be the starter. And let's be honest, he still could be in a few weeks.

by Tim R :: Tue, 09/06/2011 - 2:59pm

I would be pretty shocked if Beck didn't start at least some games this year, not because I have any faith in him but I have even less in Rex Grossman's ability to not completely suck.

by sundown (not verified) :: Mon, 09/05/2011 - 11:03pm

Indeed they were. After Kyle's story about how he advocated Beck be a top 10 selection, it's actually quite shocking he didn't get the nod. Because that's not the sort of story people typically share unless they have plans of proving themselves right.