Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

04 Oct 2013

32 Visualizations for 32 Teams

Pretty cool stuff from Reuben Fischer-Baum over at Deadspin's new, nerd-inspired "Regressing" blog. He took FO's DYAR stats through Week 4, and made bubble charts for each offense, with bubble sizes reflecting how the offense's aggregate DYAR at a given skill position compares to the league average DYAR at that position. Offenses like the Panthers, Colts, Seahawks, and 49ers are pretty balanced in terms of the proportional value they're adding from each position, while the Bengals, Browns, Giants, Ravens, and [redacted] are being carried by a single position group. A couple of other things that stood out to me were

  • Denver is only 109 aggregate DYAR below the best possible assembly of offensive units, while Jacksonville is only 93 aggregate DYAR above the worst possible.
  • The Saints' tight end bubble is literally off the chart.
  • Among the three offenses that have separated themselves from the rest of the pack this year, Green Bay's is the only one that's gotten bupkis from one of the four skill positions.
  • I would love to see a side-by-side contrast of New England's chart this year to one based on the first four games of last year.
  • Miami's tight end and wide receiver bubbles: huge. Miami's quarterback bubble: tiny. Go figure!

It sounds like Fischer-Baum will be updating these as the season goes on, so check back periodically if you want to sail away on a wave of visualization.

Posted by: Danny Tuccitto on 04 Oct 2013

17 comments, Last at 07 Oct 2013, 2:37pm by Never Surrender


by merlinofchaos :: Fri, 10/04/2013 - 5:59pm

Ok, what's really interesting to me is that the Broncos are killing it on RBs, even though conventional wisdom is out there telling us that the Broncos RBs aren't getting it done, and if there's ever a time when a defense is able to slow down Manning, we might not be able to rely on the backs.

I think that's because the RB output of the Broncos is inflated because teams line up 6 in the box a lot, and Manning will audible to runs in very favorable situations. Those situations kind of inflate the numbers a little bit.

by Perfundle :: Fri, 10/04/2013 - 6:17pm

Something similar happened with the Packers in 2011. They had a 7th-ranked rushing DVOA despite being 6th-last in rushing yards per game. What they had going for them was a high rate of picking up first downs in those limited rushes, good for 10th in the league.

by Malene, copenhagen (not verified) :: Sat, 10/05/2013 - 5:15am

well, no, not really similar at all. DVOA is a rate stat, so it would make sense that prolific pass offenses rate highly in DVOA in limited samplees.

However, this is based on DYAR, which measures actual production. Denver RBs being this productive does go against conventional wisdom.

by Andrew Potter :: Sat, 10/05/2013 - 10:54am

Denver's top running backs are incredibly efficient in both the running game (Moreno's DVOA is 40.1% and Hillman's is 46.9%) and the passing game (61.0% and 80.4% for the two above). Good running back DVOA numbers are 20% for rushing and 30% for receiving. They're basically doubling that in both aspects, so even if they aren't putting up sensational numbers on the ground (though 120 YPG at 4.0 YPC isn't bad at all) advanced metrics will love them.

I wonder how much conventional wisdom is affected by the lack of one star back who is putting up top-five fantasy numbers every week.

by Hummingbird Cyborg :: Sat, 10/05/2013 - 9:33am

Last year, the Broncos had a pretty good adjusted line yards, but ranked poorly in open field yards. This offseason they added Louis Vasquez to try to improve their run blocking. And, they improved their open field yards and their second level yards, but they're still not breaking the big runs that tend to define run attacks that people notice.

Oh, and running backs are also used in the pass game.

by bernie (not verified) :: Fri, 10/04/2013 - 6:22pm

So realistically, a Jaguars fan could say, "Thank God for Clay Harbor!!", and he wouldn't be joking?

by Andrew Potter :: Fri, 10/04/2013 - 6:28pm

It depends how badly he wants the #1 pick.

by Moridin :: Fri, 10/04/2013 - 7:32pm

Wow, I hadn't realized this year how bad Rudolph and Carson have been for the Vikings. Now to be fair to them, a lot of that is probably Ponder's fault, but regardless, 12/20 passes for 100 yards is abysmal for a TE.

by the cat in the box is dead (not verified) :: Sat, 10/05/2013 - 6:47am

That giant picture of Peyton Manning accurately represents how it felt watching him shred the Eagles defence.

Also, how odd does it seem to look at the Patriots' Tight End Production Hole? Obviously, everyone knows what's happened but that's such a stark visualisation of just how far things have come from that supposed 'Revolutionising NFL Offense' level of production.

by LionInAZ :: Sat, 10/05/2013 - 9:22pm

I'm sure it's surprising to people who have forgotten that Gronkowski hasn't played yet this year.

by dbostedo :: Sun, 10/06/2013 - 5:25pm

I think it would be surprising to people that haven't been paying attention to the Patriots this year, even knowing that Gronkowski and Hernandez haven't played.

I saw people promoting Sudfield early in the year as a potential sleeper. (For instance : http://theinscribermag.com/2013-fantasy-football-pats-te-zach-sudfield-h... ) I think a lot of people assume that the Patriots offense would still find a way to create a good tight end almost regardless of personnel.

So it's not a surprise that they're worse than when they have Gronk in there. The surprise is that they're really bad at tight end.

by Anonymousse (not verified) :: Mon, 10/07/2013 - 11:11am

I still think Sudfeld is going to be a decent NFL player. He (like a lot of UDFA) players, really needs an offseason in an NFL weight room.

by the cat in the box is dead (not verified) :: Sun, 10/06/2013 - 4:44am

(Sigh). Not surprising, noteworthy. A reminder of how quickly a team's strength can change or be undone.

by andrew :: Sun, 10/06/2013 - 9:14am

So the real source of the viking' offensives woes is thr dropoff of Kyle Rudolph?

by Anonymousse (not verified) :: Mon, 10/07/2013 - 11:23am

This is kind of neat, but the individual DYAR is pretty much completely useless excepting QBs, so I'm not sure it really tells anyone much.

by tuluse :: Mon, 10/07/2013 - 12:11pm

It tells you how teams are getting their offensive production, but not telling you why. So it's useful, just limited.

by Never Surrender :: Mon, 10/07/2013 - 2:37pm

Time for the [redacted] "joke" to end as a part of article text. It's unprofessional, trying way too hard, and not funny.